Could the lower Christmas spending be the Pervebial Straw that causes the meltdown?

I'm just wondering if what everyone is waiting for is to see exactly how consumers react during the chirstmas soending surge. It has been suggested that the market may just bounce around untill Jan when buisnesses release thier profits from the christmas spending surge.

I've heard it suggested that the "real" economic breakdown or "Apocalypse" as people like to call it will not actually happen until Janurary when people finally see that absolutley NOONE is spending anymore. I for one have been forced to cut my christmas spending by a huge amount. Basically only going to be spending for some gifts for my children.

Just wondering how many others here have changed thier usual christmas spending because of everything going on. And if so, when the results come out and if they are as low or lower as people are suggesting. Do the people here think, that maybe that report may be the perverbial straw the break the camels back?

Thoughts? Comment?

[edit on 11/12/0808 by Trayen11]

I honestly can't understand what would trigger it. Common sense would say that OF COURSE spending will be low this holiday season. Despite that, somehow Wall Street will act as if it is some sort of a shocking revelation and use it as an excuse to short the market.

Now if common sense ruled the day, I would think that the market has already compensated for the down holiday season because it is a foregone conclusion. That being the case, the only thing that could happen would be that the data is bad and the market continues is current demise or the data is better than expected and the market surges.

I wish I could predict what the market triggers are now. I can't though. It baffles me.

I thought about this earlier. So I guess it's time to short everything but food and necessities. Go PG!

reply to post by Karlhungis


Agreed, but since the so called Bottom of 8000 the DOW hit a while ago the market seems to be just bouncing around since. It seems like traders are out there going through the motions....noone seems to know what to do.

Which is why i post the question. Could a report of horrible christmas spending cause the "panic" everyone is waiting for thats going to cause everything to finally Blow up for sure?

Will cause?

I think it's already been caused. Camel's back is broken.
"The economy fell off a cliff in October,'' said Richard Berner, co-head of global economics at Morgan Stanley in New York.

The meltdown is here.

Christmas spending?
This is gonna be more like NoMas spending.
My kid and my young niece & nephew are the only ones getting gifts this year, and it's not going to be anywhere near the level of previous years. We simply can't afford it.

The post-holiday retail report will be disappointing at best, devastating at worst. It'll put some retailers out of business.

I know I don't have any money for Christmas, in fact, I see a layoff in the very near future.

I think the fact that there will be little Christmas spending this year will be the last rites for the dying economy.

Who the hell has the money to spend and if they do, why are they not using it to stock up on the necessities that may become scarce or way to expensive.

As an aside, for me, it will be a nice change from the crass commercialization of the holiday season. No, I'm not a real spiritual guy, but I do recognize the significance of Christmas to some and for me, that significance is food, family, friends and fun.

I don't need 'stuff' to make me complete rather I need my partner, the kids, my family and my friends. And I won't feel one pang of guilt for not greasing the economic wheel right now as it is clear the powers that be aren't all that concerned about us.

Originally posted by anachryon
Will cause?

I think it's already been caused. Camel's back is broken.
"The economy fell off a cliff in October,'' said Richard Berner, co-head of global economics at Morgan Stanley in New York.

The meltdown is here.

Christmas spending?
This is gonna be more like NoMas spending.
My kid and my young niece & nephew are the only ones getting gifts this year, and it's not going to be anywhere near the level of previous years. We simply can't afford it.

The post-holiday retail report will be disappointing at best, devastating at worst. It'll put some retailers out of business.

We agree, 100%, a poor Christmas season will not be the cause of anything, it is only a symptom of the various causes..

However, it will still have it's effects.

A devastating Christmas will mean MASSIVE layoffs that will carry over to next year, honestly right now we are in a recession, a devastating Christmas imo means we are in for a depression ..

If the auto makers fail, along with a poor Christmas, it would be the Perfect Storm of financial destruction.

There are way too many jittery shoppers out there. Like the earlier post said, the meltdown already happened in October. It shook consumers to the core watching banks fold and real estate plummet. People might be in shock right now and want to hold on to what they got and see if this economic storm passes. The bad news is that things are going to get a lot worse financially for many.