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I put the odds of the plates falling within the next two months - and possibly within the next couple of weeks - at one chance in three.
If the plates fall we are going to have a very serious "event" in this country in the markets and in the economy - much worse than what we've seen to date. As in 10 million jobs lost almost all at once. A depression. And a new leg down in the market - 30-50% - essentially straight down.
As I said, I only give the odds of this event here and now at one in three - but if Ben and Hank have been playing games, that outcome has become inevitable - we are arguing about timing, not result.
We have discovered that Treasury, on its own initiative, changed tax policy in a fashion that will cost taxpayers another $150 billion, this beyond the TARP as well, without Congressional approval - this time as an "incentive" for banks buying up other banks.
Well Bloomberg (among many others, myself included) would like to try to figure it out, but The Fed doesn't seem to want to disclose what it has taken in, from whom, and how it valued those alleged assets.
Why not Ben?
Are you afraid that you might wind up disclosing that you in fact have been printing money, after you told Congress there was no inflationary impact of your actions, and that such a disclosure might not only result in a contempt citation from Congress (or worse) but might also trigger mass capital flight by foreign governments and investors who suddenly come to realize that you've screwed them?
Originally posted by Dbriefed
Obama will crush the economy.