Chance of DEPRESSION overshadows G20 summit!!

Originally posted by anachryon
If unemployment were measured today using the same factors used prior to JFK's Presidency, our current unemployment rate would be 11.8%. The Birth/Death Model was also not used in estimating unemployment numbers prior to 2000.
...

how would the unemployment rate of 11.8% compare to a 10% "fall in output"? are they the same thing?

the article makes them seem like they're different:

...a depression is defined by some as a severe and long recession characterised by high unemployment, and by others as a 10 percent fall in output -- something that has not occurred globally since the 1930s.

www.guardian.co.uk...

what was the unemployment rate in the '30s?

In 1930, after the stockmarket crash and the first bank runs, unemployment rose from 3.2 to 8.7 percent.

Here are the figures for the unemployment rate in the Great Depression through 1938:

1929 - 3.2 percent
1930 - 8.7 percent
1931 - 15.9 percent
1932 - 23.6 percent
1933 - 24.9 percent
1934 - 21.7 percent
1935 - 20.1 percent
1936 - 16.9 percent
1937 - 14.3 percent
1938 - 19.0 percent

wiki.answers.com...
www.hyperhistory.com...

our "official" unemployment rate, as of October 2008, was 6.5%. (right next to Trinidad and Tobago..) just above us at 6.7%, is the European Union...
en.wikipedia.org...



[edit on 11-11-2008 by adrenochrome]

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Well! It just took a year and half before they admit it! This whole thing ``started`` in august 07. They've just come across the word ``recession`` in the last weeks... now they are already at depression.

What would cause a depression... would be to dump the US dollar as the international currency on november 15... which what they will probably do and they will say that it is a necessary evil to save the world in the long run or something like that.

Well, it certainly is looking like your theory is coming to pass: The U.S. May Lose It's AAA Rating

Anybody else think is the next move? It is interesting the false bounce the dollar has had since our economy has begun to crumble. Maybe it a play to allow the Informed to get out of Dollars at a higher-exchange rate, before it bottoms out...

If you guys could pick another currency to move dollars to, which would it be?

Originally posted by adrenochrome
how would the unemployment rate of 11.8% compare to a 10% "fall in output"? are they the same thing?

Separate but related. Unemployment is the (manipulated) measure of how many people are out of a job. Output is the measure of how much "stuff" we produce - GDP is a decent measure of output, but good luck getting an accurate measure of the true GDP.

here's some articles i just came across:

This coming weekend's G20 cuckoo's nest in Washington will --apart from witnessing governments attempt to spend and borrow their way out of a crisis created by spending and borrowing -- address the construction of a new "global financial architecture" to make sure that this never happens again. Again.

...

The IMF and the World Bank are among the greatest examples in world history of unintended results. The IMF, which was created to nurse and cajole fecklessly run countries back to financial health, instead created a world of moral hazard. A fine example of the kind of disciplined mentality induced by the IMF is to be seen in Argentina, whose government is trying to steal the nation's pension funds. But that probably won't be a barrier to another bailout!

The World Bank -- designed to help the poor -- has similarly wasted billions while singularly failing to approach the record of curing poverty achieved by capitalist private investment. Its president, Robert Zoellick, warned the G20 pre-meeting meeting in Sao Paulo last weekend that "unless they were quickly able to prime the pump of global credit, the poorest countries in the world -- already reeling because of soaring food and fuel prices earlier this year -- would pay a steep price." It wasn't recorded whether he commented on the role of governments in creating the food and fuel price crises. Somehow -- as Milton Friedman noted -- the answer to government failure is always more government.

"The G20's architectural folly"

and also...

"In the opinion of the EU, whoever wants more say must also bring a larger financial offering to the table. There are no free rides," German Finance Secretary Joerg Asmussen was quoted as saying.

"G20 Finance Ministers Call for Growth and Stability"

money really is power...




[edit on 12-11-2008 by adrenochrome]

why are you so alarmed?

the truth of the matter is, America will be fine

barring World War 3, which we would most likely win anyway

we will be alright.

and if I'm wrong then what's the point of all the bull sh1t.

if like you guys think, we are headed for a depression, world war 3, going to get raped by a gray while I sleep, and Iran is going to nuc Israel, and Osama is planning a better attack than 9/11...then we are all screwed.

America is resilliant and if some how we hit a depression you know how we get it out it in a year?

we all work TO produce AMERICAN made products and we all buy AMERICAN MADE products only, house warE, appliances, cars, clothes, video games

we only buy american, we support each other, we would make a sh1t ton of money.
give me a break, we could bounce out of a depression tomorrow, the truth is we want to build up the rest of the world so that we share Earth with people that are civil, western, and classy.

we could turn our back on the world tomorrow if we needed to, to get out of a "depression"....but we are stuck with countries like Iraq and Afghanistan so we gotta deal with them until the sky falls down

if it does fall, we can easily recover, we are Americans the best and brightest shining city on a hill, may God bless America and her people.

[edit on 12-11-2008 by ConservativeJack]

reply to post by ConservativeJack


That begs the question though, how much of our industrial and manufacturing infrastructure is intact enough to allow for American Made to even be a possibility at this point?

many, including Obama, don't think there will be a new gold standard coming out of G20:

Gold surged on Friday as world leaders gathered to battle the economic crisis, amid talk of a new Bretton Woods agreement to shore up the financial system, but calls to revisit the gold standard are unlikely.

The gold standard, a monetary system of fixed exchange rates in terms of gold, had been the cornerstone of Bretton Woods, which created the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, until President Richard Nixon took the U.S. dollar off the standard in 1971.

...

"I think the anticipation of something from the G20 meeting is helping gold," said George Gero, vice president of RBC Capital Markets Global Futures.

World leaders, including British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, have recently vowed to change the international monetary system created at the Bretton Woods, New Hampshire conference in 1944, which helped draw up the post-war financial order.

...

OBAMA: NO GOLD STANDARD

But it seems that central bankers and governments around the world have already put a stop on a comeback of the gold standard as they prefer monetary policies without being restrained by gold reserves.

In August, then presidential candidate Barack Obama said he did not think a return to the gold standard was a good idea and noted that the U.S. currency was strong in the 1990s, even though there was no gold standard.

Obama was speaking in response to a question about if he thought the country should return to the gold standard, given that the weak dollar is exacerbating the rise in oil prices.

"I don't think they want to do that. I think that would panic the world," said COMEX gold options floor trader Jonathan Jossen.

Bretton Woods gold/dollar peg unlikely at G20

reply to post by adrenochrome

Very nice post!

It appears that the ones saying the United States will be fine are the ones who may be oblivious on how our system truly works. When the Federal Reserve prints money every printed dollar we recieve it comes with debt attached to it. (Ex: You agree to pay for 3 dollars, but you only recieve 1 dollar.) Thats pretty much the only way that's needed to sum it up. In order to pay off this debt you must get rid of all fiat currency in our system and restore it back to some sort of backed standard, because we all need to realize in order to pay off this debt you must have zero federal reserve bills in circulation. With this system we can't simply pay off debt, with more debt, it's like throwing dollar bills at a blazing fire.

When the government asks to print money (after a budget is written of course) It prints up the amount it needs in government bonds, which stands for debt, and gives them to the Fed reserve. Then the Fed makes some pretty looking paper itself and calls it Federal reserve notes which it exchanges for the bonds. But not for free, Interest is added. This money is in turn loaned to banks, which loan to bussinesses and the people. This is the only way new money can be created. But check this out, according to Modern Money Mechanics, in the federal reserve system you need only 10% of any given loan amount in assets. Deposits are credited toward assets but loans are not removed. Example. 10,000 dollars is the total assets of Bank1. A customer comes in and wants a loan for 100,000. The bank makes the loan because it has the 10% to cover in assets, but does not remove any money from it's account. Lets say the customer only needed 50,000 at the time and he deposits 50,000 into an account. Bank1 now has 60,000 in assets and that is enough to satisfy a loan of up to 600,000. And the cycle repeats itself.

Anytime a bank or credit card company, or any copier of the federal reserve system signs a finance agreement with you, the money being lent is actually created out of thin air. The money's value comes from the existing money supply which makes things cost more. Just imagine Musical chairs with money, because each time new money is created we must all fight to get our share of it or we are robbed by inflation. And if we have no useful skills or knowledge we are left to wonder the streets homeless as a mere pest, like an insect problem.

Those who say our country is fine, here's an overview of our inflationary situation.

You need $21,369.57 2008 Federal Reserve dollars to equal $1,000 dollars from 1913 due to inflation.

You need $21,369,575.27 2008 Federal Reserve dollars to equal 1,000,000 dollars from 1913 due to inflation.

The bailout that recently passed: You would need $149,587,027,294,071.00
to equal $700,000,000 billion from 1913.

It is NEVER the value of things increasing or decresing, it's the value of the dollar inflating and deflating that causes prices to fluctuate and when the dollar beings to inflate again, you're going to see panics and economic woes that you've never seen in this generation before. Prepare yourself now folks.