Do you think the election would be closer if the economy hadn't imploded?

Regardless of merit, I think that many voters decided to go for Obama because they blame the current administration for the economic crisis. I would imagine the call for "change" that Obama has been running on had a lot more meaning to a lot of people when their savings accounts disappeared and had the stock market remained strong, we would be facing a much closer election.

Am I alone here?

I would tend to agree with you on that one, although I think that it is merely one of many elements...the last 8 years have been an epic fail, on so many levels.

I think Americans definately want a change and Obama is definately a breath of fresh air from the current, and hopefully outgoing, cabal of criminals...but, the thing is that, in my opinion, the change that the "Right" and "Left" of America want are in very different directions.

reply to post by madhatr137

the last 8 years have been an epic fail, on so many levels.

I agree but I think a lot more people would have been willing to ignore it had the economy not taken a nose dive. It seemed to be a breaking point for several people that I know.

reply to post by Karlhungis


I totally agree. The economy was/is the main issue in this election, and what happened in the last 6 weeks sealed it for Obama.

People equated the economy with Bush and Bush with McCain.

Originally posted by Karlhungis
I agree but I think a lot more people would have been willing to ignore it had the economy not taken a nose dive. It seemed to be a breaking point for several people that I know.

I guess that every dark cloud has to have a silver-lining, eh? At least we know that a recession will get people's attention.

It however does go back to something that James Carville said in '92 during the Clinton campaigns against HW Bush.

"Its the economy, stupid."

Its really sad though...Its obvious that the Republican economic strategies, complete de-regulation, "Reaganomics," record borrowing, ignoring debt, etc., don't work...they've created the mess we're in now...and yet, we can rest assured that at any juncture that they acquire power, they will continue to follow those policies...at the expense of everyone else.

I agree that the economy played a part in why the Obama lead is so big, but I'm not sure the outcome would be any different. Here's why.

Below is a graph that spans the entire general campaign - It's over a year long.

Obama was up (and had been for some time) going into the Democratic conventions (Aug 25) and experienced a spike at the end.

The announcement of Sarah Palin the next day, put McCain up for the first time in a long time. His lead lasted 9 days until Sept. 17. (Market fell on 9/15, I think)

To be fair, McCain's numbers were falling for the week preceding the market crash... So I'm not sure that the "Palin Bump" wouldn't have been temporary without the market crash, as his numbers were falling before the market took a dive.

The economy also may have played a part in McCain going so negative, which I think is what really sealed his fate.

Graph

[edit on 4-11-2008 by Benevolent Heretic]

The numbers aren't in yet. IF we want to go by poll numbers...then yeah looks like Obama's the winner. But i do recall news outlets declaring Kerry the victor 4 years ago after the exit polls.

I'm not saying Obama is going to lose or win...but for people to just think it's going to happen without it actually happening should be cautioned. I hope that he doesn't win...i just don't like what he stands for and basically he creeps the living crap out of me.

What i was thinking today...

People are voting for Obama just out of spite because of the atrocity that Bush has ended up being. (in most peoples eyes) They say...damnit...i got screwed i voted republican and look what happened. Is it really that simple? Is it really that black and white? No it's not. So many out there are voting for this reason alone without knowing ANYTHING but stump speeches which are full of half truths and lies. People need to take more into consideration besides the R or D next to a candidates name!

"Two wrongs don't make a right."

"De nile isn't just a river in Egypt." ----you have to sound that one out...looks silly typed.

And yeah the economy played to Obama. Cripes how could anyone say it didn't? The polls tanked on McCain when the crisis first started and he's been fighting to get back up since.

I think if the economy had crashed sooner RP would have gotten even better numbers then he did...don't know if would have been enough, but I think people would have taken him a lot more seriously.

IMO the current economic crisis has helped to make people pay more attention, and increase number of voters.

Good question tho..if things had not gotten out of hand until say early '09; I still think Bush had dug the grave for the Republicans.

In fact, I think Obama might have even had an easier time winning. A lot of people think Obama will be worse for the economy so people might come out to vote for McCain just for that reason.

I think the economy will rule the Presidency however, not the other way around.