posted on Nov, 8 2008 @ 07:20 PM
Sorry to take a break from the thread suddenly like that. To answer the question about Russia or China putting boots on US Soil, I consider it both an
impractical and unnecessary response for either of those enemies to attempt.
The Russians and Chinese really don't have the hardware yet to conduct and protect a big enough sea lift to invade the United States, or to strike
anywhere else very far from their coast if the US Navy fully resists. The Chinese in particular are starting to think very seriously about the rapid
development of a blue water navy, and to that end are working with economical but effective technologies like quieter diesel subs, but they are well
aware that they are 5-10 years from being able to slug it out with the United States in most of Asia and 15-20 years from being able to actually
project power against US interests outside of Asia.
The Chinese are very into soft power and may be able to sell the Russians on that, although the Russians tend to be very direct and Putin does not
seem overly anxious to make Russian defense policy grow in sophistication.
If China draws a line in the sand and the United States crosses that line, China would probably go on a spending spree and dump its reserves of US
dollars to drive up the price of a few carefully chosen resources while driving down America's buying power (and that of any allies of ours who like
greenbacks). It's a dangerous move for China, because it really hurts their number one market, however they could always bite the bullet and peddle
their wares to the less fortunate at a cut rate to reduce the economic fallout on themselves while strengthening ties to often overlooked nations.
Frankly I don't have the energy to gather and analyze the data necessary to tell you how well that would play out and what their target would be. The
best I can do quickly is a hypothetical illustration.
One hypothetical response to an American invasion of Iran would be to ship weapons, intelligence operatives, and "technical advisors" to Eritrea,
the Sudan, and certain factions in Somalia and send them after Ethiopia, and in exchange promise them massive support for infrastructure projects.
So they take out a US pawn, and pay for it by flooding the world with US dollars to buy up labor and cement for those promised infrastructure
projects. The guest worker market is important to small nations in the gulf, so our allies hurt when demand and thus wages go up. A spike in concrete
prices is bad for anyone doing a lot of building (like America, or any nation that has just been bombed by and needs to be rebuilt by America) but
good for suppliers (Egypt among them) and the end result if it all goes well is that they've built allies and a base of power in a strategic location
near the middle east. This threat to the Red Sea and Saudi Arabia increases the importance of Turkey and India significantly. India is a member of
BRICS, is neutral, and has significant interests in East Africa, and thus is pulled further from the US and closer to Russia and China by such a move.
Turkey thus becomes vital to US strategy in the ME despite having been unwilling to help with Iraq. Turkey is unlikely to welcome any significant role
in a burgeoning new cold war, and will probably become even less cooperative as long as Russia and China don't show any signs of aggression.
And there you have it- it doesn't end the US war, but it makes what we're doing that much harder and more expensive, which appeals to Russia's
siege mentality as much as to China's soft power focus, making it a fairly plausible flavor of joint retaliation for Russia and China to
Now, if we got them so steamed that they really wouldn't settle for anything less than a GREAT BIG WAR against us, the logical place for the Russians
and Chinese to strike is the West Pacific. This is just plain not going to happen, but I'm including it for those who disagree with me and believe
that Russia and China are willing and able to start a serious war with America in the near term.
By starting the war through proxies with whom they have close ties and obligations, and against whom America has obligations or just bad blood, they
can start a war but keep it off of their soil.
For instance, the Russians and Chinese could encourage a North Korean escalation of tensions until war broke out on the Korean peninsula (I'm not
sure that it matters who starts it really) then when America starts to support the South, jump into the war with both feet, and let the front
stabilize deep in the South, forcing America to begin operating from Japan, which in turn justifies the launch of missile and air strikes on Japan.
America will retaliate. While it may seem trivial, the fact of such a scenario would be that America bombed China when China never bombed America.
Bombing American forces on Japanese soil isn't quite bombing America and isn't quite bombing Japan, as long as nothing civilian gets hit. So if
America bombs China back and hits so much as one civilian janitor, I think China and Russia get off with a slap on the wrist if they destroy American
naval forces in the theater with nukes. What's America going to do? Drop a nuke on Chinese or Russian soil in retaliation for a nuke on a ship at
sea, especially after the nuclear escalation for the first attack on Chinese soil? I think not. Now they offer to pull out of South Korea and pay
limited reparations in exchange for America doing likewise in Iran, and although its a stalemate ending, they sell it to allies as if they forced
America to withdraw from both theaters.
The end state is America short maybe 2 or 3 battlegroups plus a couple of EXTREMELY valuable LMSRs, suffered several thousand casualties, and appears
to no longer be the balance holder from anywhere in Asia. Iran would be a mess, and Russia and China would be stepping into a brave new world on their
continent that they might not be economically or militarily prepared to control, but would have to try. Extremely risky scenario all around, but
really the only shot Russia and China have of delivering a crippling blow to actually stop America's middle eastern adventures.