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Even Republicans predict Obama win now

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posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 05:47 PM
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Has ANYBODY on a national level ever overcome a 10 point deficit just before election day?
rawstory.com...

From CNN
Leslie Sanchez, Republican Strategist: If John McCain is within four points of Obama in the final polls, there’s a chance for a McCain win.

Alex Castellanos, Republican Strategist: Obama wins with 318 electoral votes, which he gains by carrying Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. McCain wins Ohio and North Carolina.

Ed Rollins, Republican Strategist: Obama wins with 352 electoral votes, including Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.

So it's not if he wins, but by how much now.




posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 06:08 PM
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As I've heard, it seemed that Carter had a pretty sizable lead going into the final weekend of election day, then Regan thawhumped him. Also, Truman was supposed to win to Dewey, remember the famous "Dewey defeats Truman" paper? I read that in that election, the pollsters stopped polling in the final week because "it was a for gone conclusion" that Dewey would win.



posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 06:15 PM
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Has ANYBODY on a national level ever overcome a 10 point deficit just before election day?


I believe gallop is the only poll showing Obama with a 10 point lead. Most polls show the race is getting tighter and there are still a large amount of undecideds out there.

I believe Obama is in the lead but I'm not sold on the idea that he has a 10 point lead.

Jemison



posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 06:35 PM
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reply to post by Jemison
 


could you cite some of those polls please, old sport? (hint: do not link to the same poll quoted multiple times at various rightwing cryptofascist blogs. if you're saying there are many polls out there, we need to see many different polls.) a flukey zogby poll seems to show the gap closing, but so far that seems to be about the only one from generally reputable pollsters.

if you're going to make empirical claims be prepared to cite evidence please ok thanks!



posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 07:51 PM
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reply to post by oswald roswell
 


TIPP poll: Obama 46.7% McCain 44.6% Unsure 8.7% [source, IBDeditorials.com]

Here is a list of polls from realclearpolitics.com, I'm only choosing ones that ended withing the last few days:

CNN/Opinion Research 10/30 - 11/01 714 53 46 Obama +7
Rasmussen Reports 10/30 - 11/01 51 46 Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/30 - 11/01 51 43 Obama +8
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/30 - 11/01 52 43 Obama +9
Diageo/Hotline 10/30 - 11/01 50 45 Obama +5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/30 - 11/01 50 44 Obama +6
Pew Research 10/29 - 11/01 52 46 Obama +6
IBD/TIPP 10/29 - 11/01 47 45 Obama +2
ABC News/Wash Post 10/29 - 11/01 54 43 Obama +11
CBS News 10/28 - 10/31 54 41 Obama +13
GWU/Battleground 10/27 - 10/30 49 45 Obama +4

*After the date, Obama is the first number, McCain is the second*

Despite the 11 and 13, I think that this race is still WAY to close to call!

I erased the voter sample and the margin of error. I remember reading a story on the Washington post's website that said that many of the polling agencies are using a formula that includes many young and first time registered voters, in the article, it is stated that for these polls to be correct, the young voters have to actually go and vote instead of chillin with their boyfriend or girlfriend. I could be wrong, but as I remember, the author of this article says that it is entirely possibly that many young Obama voters won't go and vote because it doesn't seem necessary because he has it in the bag. A similar thing happened to him in New Hampshire during the primaries.

Here's the link to the mentioned article:

www.washingtonpost.com...

[If that link doesn't work, you can get the link to it from my blog, I know it works there, the address is in my signature]



posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 08:14 PM
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Of course! the polls! it must be over if the polls say it is! oh well whats the use in voting ? it wont do any good, what was i thinking! the polls are never wrong!
Oh well we had a good run, the polls just told us that the campaign is over oh well.



posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 08:51 PM
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Its called playing the under dog.

Remember the reality of the situation at hand...

-McCain has been left for dead (pun unintended) numerous times, and his come back.

-The bradley effect

-The conservative resurgence in the west.

These are all factors weighing against Obama. Neither candidate is the underdog because both have factors weighed against them. Nobody can predicton this election for sure.

I hope Obama wins but lets just be real for once and not look to what the pundets and the polls say.

[edit on 2-11-2008 by southern_Guardian]



posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 09:02 PM
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Most polls this weekend have them to close to call. i was just looking over at real clear politics to get the latest poll for Missouri and McCain is now leading in MO he has been trailing for weeks now. Missouri has picked the winning candidate for over the last 100 years. so On election night i'll be watching who won in MO and see if the tradition holds up again this time.

And yes a candidate has been down 10 points in the polls and came back to win. G.W. Bush was the last candidate to do it, if i'm not mistaken.

[edit on 11/2/2008 by Mercenary2007]



posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 09:12 PM
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Originally posted by Mercenary2007
Most polls this weekend have them to close to call. i was just looking over at real clear politics to get the latest poll for Missouri and McCain is now leading in MO he has been trailing for weeks now. Missouri has picked the winning candidate for over the last 100 years. so On election night i'll be watching who won in MO and see if the tradition holds up again this time.

And yes a candidate has been down 10 points in the polls and came back to win. G.W. Bush was the last candidate to do it, if i'm not mistaken.

[edit on 11/2/2008 by Mercenary2007]


Im happy to see someone on here that can remember all that I've forgotten since going into political seclusion.

Maybe Missouri has just the right mix of americans to pull good samples from? We will see this Tuesday!



posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 09:24 PM
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Originally posted by Blue_Jay33
Has ANYBODY on a national level ever overcome a 10 point deficit just before election day?
rawstory.com...



A 10 Point deficit? You are taking into account the extremely High-end Polls, without regard for the various Polls which have this Race in a Statistical Dead-Heat. If you average out the corresponding Polls, this race is between Four to Five Points, which is FAR from unwinnable for Senator McCain.

Gallup's Poll has officially just lost all credibility, when they decided that somehow the Traditional Model was tied with the Expanded Model. Logic will tell you that these two Polls cannot be the same. Electoral possibilities aside, this will be a close race, so the EV can easily tip either way.

Besides, a good chunk of Senator Obama's supporters have already voted, so Election Day will see a Majority Vote of Senator McCain's supporters. This does not guarantee him winning, but it does show that it is most definitely NOT out of the question.



posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 09:53 PM
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I wasn't trying to say that the race was over by showing the polls. One of the previous posters had asked for prove that it was a close race and I provided it. I most certainly believe that the race isn't over and that things are actually moving in McCain's favor.

Tom



posted on Nov, 3 2008 @ 06:26 AM
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Originally posted by octotom
I wasn't trying to say that the race was over by showing the polls. One of the previous posters had asked for prove that it was a close race and I provided it. I most certainly believe that the race isn't over and that things are actually moving in McCain's favor.

Tom



You did a VERY good job of presenting these Polls and working out some Averages. Would you be willing to keep us updated in this manner through Today and Tomorrow?



posted on Nov, 3 2008 @ 01:19 PM
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I'll tell you what *my* observations are. This past weekend I took a trip down to Baton Rouge, LA to see the LSU/Tulane football game. I could count the number of Obama/Biden signs and stickers on one hand. Saw more McCain/Palin stuff than I could count. This was a 5 hour road trip through three different states, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

I think the polls are skewed and skewed badly.



posted on Nov, 3 2008 @ 01:35 PM
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Yeah its not looking good for McCain at all at his last rally only his wife and mother showed up and they begged out early.


Oh yeah and Joe the Plumber was there.

[edit on 3-11-2008 by grover]



posted on Nov, 3 2008 @ 01:41 PM
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Originally posted by netwarrior
This past weekend I took a trip down to Baton Rouge, LA to see the LSU/Tulane football game. I could count the number of Obama/Biden signs and stickers on one hand. Saw more McCain/Palin stuff than I could count. This was a 5 hour road trip through three different states, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

I think the polls are skewed and skewed badly.


I hate to say it but that was a 5 hour road trip through red states. I don't doubt that you didn't see many Obama signs out there, even if people do support Obama in the deep south they probably know better than to put a sign out in their yard.

Come to Florida and it's Obama everywhere. Of course I live in Orlando, usually urban areas swing Democratic. From what I hear from my family in New York its the same (to be expected).

It's really just a matter of where you are. The polls probably are skewed, cause they probably don't get most of rural America who will probably vote for McCain. However, I still think Obama's lead is enough that he'll probably win.



posted on Nov, 3 2008 @ 01:44 PM
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Do white people in america really care if he wins. He is only 1 person, probably evil though, but what does he really matter?



posted on Nov, 3 2008 @ 01:59 PM
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Originally posted by deathhasnosound
Of course! the polls! it must be over if the polls say it is! oh well whats the use in voting ? it wont do any good, what was i thinking! the polls are never wrong!
Oh well we had a good run, the polls just told us that the campaign is over oh well.


You know something, why the do we even bother with election day anymore. I mean, why not just elect presidents by polls! According to libs, polls are more accurate than elections anyway, right?



posted on Nov, 3 2008 @ 02:01 PM
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reply to post by Jemison
 


Thats because Gallup is the only unbiased pollster out there.



posted on Nov, 3 2008 @ 02:48 PM
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Just thought id add that RCP is showing pretty large shifts in battleground states towards McCain. Virginia is no longer Blue and this also applies to NC,OH and FL.

I am curious if state polling uses older data as do the national polls. If so, things could be further in McCains favor than believed.

Look at it yourself. Obama has a minor lead.



posted on Nov, 3 2008 @ 02:56 PM
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Originally posted by drwizardphd
Come to Florida and it's Obama everywhere. Of course I live in Orlando, usually urban areas swing Democratic. From what I hear from my family in New York its the same (to be expected).


Drive a little east of Orlando toward Tampa. You'll see lots of McCain signs sprouting up amonst the orange groves and strawberry fields. I see them all the time out here.

I'm in FL too and from what I've seen its like you said, in the city its more Obama leaning, and in more rural areas its more McCain leaning - at least as far as signs go.






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