Even Republicans predict Obama win now, page 1


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Topic started on 2-11-2008 @ 05:47 PM by Blue_Jay33
Has ANYBODY on a national level ever overcome a 10 point deficit just before election day?
rawstory.com...

From CNN
Leslie Sanchez, Republican Strategist: If John McCain is within four points of Obama in the final polls, there’s a chance for a McCain win.

Alex Castellanos, Republican Strategist: Obama wins with 318 electoral votes, which he gains by carrying Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. McCain wins Ohio and North Carolina.

Ed Rollins, Republican Strategist: Obama wins with 352 electoral votes, including Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.

So it's not if he wins, but by how much now.


reply posted on 2-11-2008 @ 06:35 PM by oswald roswell
reply to post by Jemison


could you cite some of those polls please, old sport? (hint: do not link to the same poll quoted multiple times at various rightwing cryptofascist blogs. if you're saying there are many polls out there, we need to see many different polls.) a flukey zogby poll seems to show the gap closing, but so far that seems to be about the only one from generally reputable pollsters.

if you're going to make empirical claims be prepared to cite evidence please ok thanks!


reply posted on 2-11-2008 @ 07:51 PM by octotom
reply to post by oswald roswell


TIPP poll: Obama 46.7% McCain 44.6% Unsure 8.7% [source, IBDeditorials.com]

Here is a list of polls from realclearpolitics.com, I'm only choosing ones that ended withing the last few days:

CNN/Opinion Research 10/30 - 11/01 714 53 46 Obama +7
Rasmussen Reports 10/30 - 11/01 51 46 Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/30 - 11/01 51 43 Obama +8
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/30 - 11/01 52 43 Obama +9
Diageo/Hotline 10/30 - 11/01 50 45 Obama +5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/30 - 11/01 50 44 Obama +6
Pew Research 10/29 - 11/01 52 46 Obama +6
IBD/TIPP 10/29 - 11/01 47 45 Obama +2
ABC News/Wash Post 10/29 - 11/01 54 43 Obama +11
CBS News 10/28 - 10/31 54 41 Obama +13
GWU/Battleground 10/27 - 10/30 49 45 Obama +4

*After the date, Obama is the first number, McCain is the second*

Despite the 11 and 13, I think that this race is still WAY to close to call!

I erased the voter sample and the margin of error. I remember reading a story on the Washington post's website that said that many of the polling agencies are using a formula that includes many young and first time registered voters, in the article, it is stated that for these polls to be correct, the young voters have to actually go and vote instead of chillin with their boyfriend or girlfriend. I could be wrong, but as I remember, the author of this article says that it is entirely possibly that many young Obama voters won't go and vote because it doesn't seem necessary because he has it in the bag. A similar thing happened to him in New Hampshire during the primaries.

Here's the link to the mentioned article:

www.washingtonpost.com...

[If that link doesn't work, you can get the link to it from my blog, I know it works there, the address is in my signature]


reply posted on 2-11-2008 @ 09:24 PM by TheAgentNineteen
Originally posted by Blue_Jay33
Has ANYBODY on a national level ever overcome a 10 point deficit just before election day?
rawstory.com...



A 10 Point deficit? You are taking into account the extremely High-end Polls, without regard for the various Polls which have this Race in a Statistical Dead-Heat. If you average out the corresponding Polls, this race is between Four to Five Points, which is FAR from unwinnable for Senator McCain.

Gallup's Poll has officially just lost all credibility, when they decided that somehow the Traditional Model was tied with the Expanded Model. Logic will tell you that these two Polls cannot be the same. Electoral possibilities aside, this will be a close race, so the EV can easily tip either way.

Besides, a good chunk of Senator Obama's supporters have already voted, so Election Day will see a Majority Vote of Senator McCain's supporters. This does not guarantee him winning, but it does show that it is most definitely NOT out of the question.


reply posted on 3-11-2008 @ 02:01 PM by Waldy
reply to post by Jemison


Thats because Gallup is the only unbiased pollster out there.
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