Could Red Georgia turn Blue?

I know many of you could care less about Georgia but I wanted to bring this up for discussion because the idea of Georgia going blue in the Presidential race is interesting.
Senator Saxby Chambliss is pretty much neck and neck with democrat Jim Martin.
Should be interesting day on November 4th.



Obama's numbers have been growing and McCains shrinking here in Georgia.
political dashboard Georgia
The suburbs of Atlanta are hurting, the families with young children tend to be the ones who are leaning Obama and the families make up a greater portion of the suburbs. I think many will be surprised on Nov. 4th at how many registered Republican voters vote blue, including myself.
The city of Atlanta itself has for the most part voted blue it has always been the rural and suburban areas that go red and the rural areas will most likely stay red but the big population suburbs are leaning blue for not only the President but the Senate as well.
Georgians are ticked off at Senator Saxby Chambliss for voting yes on the bailout bill. (His name is fun to say but we are still really ticked off)
Could this be the year that Georgia turns blue?

Obama redoubles Georgia effort

WASHINGTON — Barely a month ago, Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama's campaign pulled a number of field staffers out of Georgia and sent them to emerging battlegrounds such as North Carolina.
But that was before Georgia's early voting showed record-high Democratic turnout, especially among African-Americans, and polls found the margin between the major presidential candidates narrowing.
hat was also before Republican Sen. Saxby Cham bliss found himself fighting for his political life against Democratic challenger and former state Rep. Jim Martin, who has benefited from the Obama campaign's voter-registration and get-out-the-vote efforts and from increased funding from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

www.kentucky.com...

I live in Ga and to tell you the truth the Republicans control state is losing its blue hue, but is also many things happening and complains of voters been left out of list.

Its been a record of voters registration within the black communities, I read in my local paper that it was a complaint that the voters registration offices were not equipped with enough staff to handle the increasingly volume of work so the new register voters be able to be in the voters list in time.

The One in charge of the offices in Atlanta said that they didn't need to hired any more staff and now is rumors that as much as 50, 000 new voters will not be able to vote.

I tell you something is going on and you an smell it in the air.

Its highly unlikely, IMO. Yes, you have an unpopular Republican senator that could well lose, but I don't think its a reliable predictor of the Presidential race. Traditional, mostly rural Dems still wield a tremendous amount of power in many southern states, but they have major differences with the national party.

In short, I do not expect Obama to win in Georgia. McCain may only win by single digits, but I just do not see such a shift occuring in the political landscape *anywhere* that would allow a 17 point margin for Bush in 2004 to evaporate completely for McCain only 4 years later.

[edit on 30-10-2008 by vor78]

Georgia has gone blue in the past. I think it went for Clinton in '92. The cities of Atlanta and Savannah have been solidly blue for years. It's only been within my lifetime that the more rural areas have shifted red. I'm no professional pundit but I grew up one county over from Warm Springs, and FDR is still revered there. I think that by and large the only reason Georgia has tended red over the past couple of decades are social issues like gun control, abortion, and gay marriage. If the Democrats had the guts not to let the radical left run their national party they could reclaim large segments of the Bible Belt, in the county I grew up in almost all local offices like sheriff and judges are held by Dems but the area sends almost exclucively Republicans to national offices. Sonny Perdue is currently the most hated governor I've seen in my lifetime.

This will be the first national election where I will not be voting in Georgia. I escaped the rediculous rises in property taxes to Alabama back in '05. I breifly considered changing my home of record back to Georgia to vote their because it would be a closer race, but I'm glad I didn't since McCain and Obama voted for the bailout. I really don't care who wins and probably prefer the fast path to hell that Obama will bring as opposed to the slow bleed that McCain will anyway.

reply to post by vor78


I dont know...
Not to label myself because I hate that but, we live in a highly populated middle to upper middle class suburb of Atlanta, we have 3 kids, 1 house, 2 cars, 2 dogs and a fenced in backyard (you get my point here, suburban hell r us). We voted Bush twice (I know, I know but we did), we are registered Republicans BUT we are voting Obama and Martin on November 4th.
I belong to several social groups around here and 90% of the people in these groups have the exact same situation as above. Obama signs are everywhere, out pacing McCain 2-1.
My older neighbors that are now empty nesters are carrying the McCain torch but I think just based on my very limited scope that families with children in the suburbs will lean Obama. And that could make a big difference.
I think Republicans and Democrats will vote Martin because of the complete lack of respect Chambliss gave his state by voting yes on the bailout.
And lets not forget about Bob Barr, he could steal McCains thunder in Georgia and hand the race to Obama as well.

[edit on 30-10-2008 by SEEWHATUDO]

reply to post by SEEWHATUDO


I do think that Chambliss is more likely to lose than win.

Obama? We'll see in a couple of days, I suppose. I may be making a mistake in projecting my state's voters on yours, but I live in a southern state, Arkansas, that has a long history of Dem controlled government until very recently (and, in fact, it is controlled by Dems right now). Even the Dems here do not like Obama at all, largely due to major differences on social issues, and I live in the eastern half of the state, which is largely a Dem stronghold.

So I just don't see it. He's going to need a lot of rural voters behind him to make up that 17 point disparity and I can't see the attitudes among rural voters in our two states as being all that different. Perhaps I'll be proven wrong, it certainly wouldn't be the first time, but I think McCain takes Georgia by 6-8%.

I live in Georgia, and I don't think it will go blue. The urban areas like Atlanta, Macon, and Savannah will vote democrat, but I don't think the state as a whole will go for Obama. At least down where I live, Obama isn't as popular as some like to think.

Chambliss is in a tight race, but I don't see a clear win for Martin. Chambliss can probably pull it out by a tiny margin.

What do you all think Bob Barr will do to the race?
I think he could be the swing for Obama by taking away McCain votes.

reply to post by vor78


On the contrary, I fully expect Obama to win in GA. Obama is already 2 points ahead in the GA.

To be honest though, it depends heavily on the turnout in Atlanta. I honestly don't personally know anyone who is voting for McCain.

But if you go out of Atlanta, you will see the rural areas have lots of Republican wealth. Which basically means lots of shacks with McCain signs out front.

reply to post by SEEWHATUDO


Its possible, I suppose, but Barr seems to be polling very poorly even in his home state. RCP doesn't have his numbers posted, but based upon the results for Obama and McCain, he can't be polling over 3-4% in Georgia. I would expect him to lose 25-50% of that on election day, too, finishing with 2-3% of the vote. So unless it turns out to be a very tight race, I don't think Barr will play the role of spoiler.

reply to post by SEEWHATUDO


I think it will be very interesting.

I am beginning to think there will be a reverse "Bradley" effect. I am finding that more and more of the people I know are voting for Obama but they are reluctant to talk about it because either they aren't sure where their friends, neighbors and co-workers stand on the election or they will be voting against type for the first time.

It's like no one wants to be the first to come out of the closet for Obama, so to speak. Pardon the controversial metaphor, but it's the most accurate.

Christian voters will play a huge role here and in the south in general:

Christians for Obama

[edit on 30/10/2008 by kosmicjack]

reply to post by vor78


According to the latest polls McCain has 50% and Obama 45.8% so if Barr pulls even 3% it could be a very tight race. Plus over the last couple of weeks McCain numbers in Ga have shrunk at a steady pace while Obama's numbers have grown at a steady pace.
I have said in other threads that I think polling is bogus but if we use it as a barometer the Dems could squeak by with a slim margin.
I think that 17 point lead from Bush is history.

reply to post by SEEWHATUDO


McCain definitely won't carry Georgia like Bush did, but I see him winning by 3-4%. People where I am aren't excited about Obama at all and that really surprises me....but, most of the talk I hear about Obama isn't positive.

reply to post by HunkaHunka


Shacks and trailers. It's unbelievable how people will latch onto wedge issues and vote against their economic interest.

reply to post by kosmicjack


yes but a great deal of the religious voters are in the more rural areas just basing this on my moving history in Ga.
I have lived in rural, suburban and urban areas of Ga. and the religious voters tend to be in the more rural areas while the suburban areas have the "I go to church to belong to the community and show off my Sunday best".
Not to make fun of suburbanites but church seems to be more of a social gathering then a religious outlet.
Hands down rural will go red but I think the suburbs will decide the race in Georgia.
We shall see, interesting indeed.

reply to post by skeptic1


Just curious what part of Georgia you are in?
I see Obama signs, rallys and bumper stickers everywhere in the greater suburbs of Atlanta. Cobb, Gwinett, Dekalb, Fulton even Forsyth seems to be jumping on the bandwagon which surprises me.

reply to post by vor78


I voted early for Obama and against all incumbants on the ballot. Then I found out that 10,000 early voter ballots in my county will have to me hand counted as the machine is not reading the electronic vote properly. What?

reply to post by kosmicjack


That is exactly what I keep thing but the church is very strong in their hold.

reply to post by SEEWHATUDO


I definitely do not believe that McCain will win the state by 17 as Bush did. On that point I agree, but I think that a complete reversal of that type of a previous result is very unlikely from one cycle to the next. You would have to have a significant change in voter attitudes across the board. With the state's Christian conservative leanings, I think it will take more time.

We'll find out soon enough, I suppose.

[edit on 30-10-2008 by vor78]

Originally posted by kosmicjack
reply to post by vor78

 

I voted early for Obama and against all incumbants on the ballot.

This is the trend I expect to see.

How many years have we been voting? You would think we could get it right by now.