Peak Oil is not a myth but its a reality in front of us. And the reality is close and getting closer fast. It is predicted that around 2010 the oil
production will peak and after the peak will come the decline. But as the demand will be still high then the prices will rock sky high and economy
will be shaken. People will be unhappy with their government and will revolt becuase of doubling prices. It is right now talked about high gas price,
but think about when the prices will double because it will be more expensive to get the rest of the oil from the ground because it will be deeper and
in geographicly unwelcoming areas.
Discovery reached a peak in the 1960s despite all the technology we hear so much about and a worldwide search for the best prospects. Discovery Rate:
we now find one barrel of conventional oil for every four we consume
The world’s oil-based economic and social systems are nearing the end of the road. There is little chance that either can survive even modest declines
in oil production, and no chance that they can exist in a world where energy supplies are decreasing at an accelerating rate. There is only so much
oil in the world. We have found ninety percent of the world’s oil, and used half of what we have found. Adding to the looming geopolitical crisis,
half of what oil remains lies under the parched sands of three Middle Eastern countries. “Well before 2010 the world will be vulnerable to 1970s-style
This shows the effect of proper backdating. The discovery trend shown in yellow is falling not rising.
Prudhoe Bay field. It is the largest field in N. America.
· The Operator internally estimated its reserves at 12.5 Gb in 1977, but reported 9 Gb.
· Various enhanced recovery methods were started in 1982
· Decline commenced in 1988. Enhanced recovery did arrest decline for one year, but then the decline was steeper.
· The field will barely make the original estimate. Nothing was added
· This shows the growing gap between discovery and consumption as we move from surplus to deficit
· The yellow curve shows exploration drilling.
· Note that the level of activity barely affects the discovery trend. It destroys the flat earth heresy that discovery is driven by market forces
Discovery, shown in green, peaked in 1930 at the edge of the chart. Production peaked 40 years later
It is the same pattern in the North Sea, but advances in technology reduced the time lag to 27 years. We are getting better at depleting our
· This shows the depletion of the Middle East.
· Actual production has been far below what was possible
· Note how rapidly production will have to rise to meet demand even with that being curbed by rising price. It is optimistic to believe that such an
increase can be achieved in time.
This is the world as a whole.
· The green bars show discovery, highlighting a few exceptional spikes in the Middle East.
· The oil shocks of the 1970s cut demand so that the actual peak came later and lower than would otherwise have been the case
· It means that the decline is less steep than it would otherwise have been
· It reminds us that if we produce less today, there is more left for tomorrow.
· It is a lesson we need to relearn as a matter of urgency.
As you can see that everything shows that oil production will hit the bottom at around 2050. But that is not when oil based economies will be shaken.
Oil based economies will be shaken much before that. So all together if the world deosnt find something to be put instead of natural gases and oil
then it will be in deep trouble.
This shows the distribution of oil
Note how North America has consumed most of its oil
Note how the Middle East has most of what is left
This shows a production profile imposed by these known and easily understood resource constraints.
It is not prophecy. It is reality
We face therefore a two-phased crisis, the first of which has already arrived, as predicted
· A price shock comes when Middle East share reaches a critical threshold, and even it cannot raise production fast enough to meet demand. Non-Middle
East production falls. That is happening now.
· The second phase comes around 2010 with the onset of chronic long-term shortage, as the Middle East can no longer meet even current demand, never
mind growth. By then, it will be asked to supply 50% of the world's oil, which will be beyond is ability
A good read about peak oil and what it did in its history.
I wish this answer your question that peak oil is not a myth but it is the future of man kind.
What has to be done now it a couple of things.
1.You can raise taxes on high gas eating cars.
2.Explore technology on something that can replace oil, natural gas, etc.
3.Start producing cars that eat less oil(hybrid)
4.Come to terms that oil peak has hit and start thinking about the future instead of telling people that everything is good.