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Canada's real estate market to be worse than the US?

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posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 08:46 AM
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Im in construction in Vancouver.

I have not noticed any pull back on residential construction, things are moving the same as they did 4 years ago.

commercial is where the problem is. People were not moving here because of real estate, they were coming here because this city has been rated in the top 5 cities to live in for nearly a decade.

Big high rise projects are the ones coming to a hault mainly because there are americans investing in them and they are going broke down south. All those workers without jobs are going to spill over to residential so my job is becomeing more competetive.

bout time, im sick of watching all these yoyo's walk on job sights and get treated like gold just because we were TEMPORARLY short on workers. I got into trades because i was told of a shortage aproaching due to nobody getting into it during the 80's and 90's when construction sucked.




posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 08:54 AM
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Originally posted by whiteraven
Back in the late 1970 era and early 1980's Calgary realeastate went upside down.

I remember a lot of people walking away from their homes.

If any of you want to see or read about the horrible way the Canadian goverment treated people during the great depression read "The Great Depression" by Pierre Berton. www.amazon.com...

Very good read by a man who shared the herb with the late Prime Minister Trudeau.

That wasn't just Calgary, the entire nation went upside down due to interest rates climbing to 18%, imagine paying a mortage at 18%.



posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 09:19 AM
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Originally posted by QuadroClip That wasn't just Calgary, the entire nation went upside down due to interest rates climbing to 18%, imagine paying a mortage at 18%.


Keep on imagining, cuz the rate peaked at 22%! Last big real estate hit we took was in 1990...I lost at least 20% of my house's value about 10 minutes after I signed the papers.

Now we may hit a dip in the market, but we don't have the same bubble going on as we did then. And there is a fundamental difference between walking away from a house or being foreclosed upon, as in the US, and having new units sit empty. A whole lot of the market depends upon buyer confidence, and if folks get nervous, they don't buy...creating it's own mess.

Alberta? Price of oil drops and Big Oil will walk away from the Tar Sands, like they did before. Watch Calgary become a ghost town again. You westerners remember the bumper stickers back then? "Please God, bring back the oil. This time I won't piss the money away"

As to 'Trana'...it's still a centre for immigration, so there's lots of demand. Still reasons to hate Toronto.



posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 09:46 AM
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Originally posted by tom goose
Im in construction in Vancouver.

I have not noticed any pull back on residential construction, things are moving the same as they did 4 years ago.


They may be building but no one is buying. We're in a false economy that hasn't seen the trickle down effect and the Olympic cash infusion is only prolonging the agony.


This place will be a ghost town after 2010.

The building that can't be completed in Surrey is only the beginning..

[edit for content]
[edit for spelling]

[edit on 2008/10/29 by juniperberry]

[edit on 2008/10/29 by juniperberry]



posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 10:02 AM
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reply to post by JohnnyCanuck
 


I stand corrected, I was a little to young to own a home at the time, just going off memory, as far as the west slowing down, I am sure it will like every thing else, I work outside of Edmonton on a Upgrader expansion and still have 2.5 years until completion, just hoping I can get through the this mess.

As far as Tarana is concerned, if you wan't to live in the armpit of universe have at it, 23 yrs was enough for me.



posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 10:14 AM
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The following is my opinion as a member participating in this discussion.


Well, I like it if it's true. I have been casually watching the market here in Ontario in the hopes to pick up more income properties. Sorry to the sellers but buyers with cash will do well.




As an ATS Staff Member, I will not moderate in threads such as this where I have participated as a member.



posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 11:57 AM
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Originally posted by QuadroClip As far as Tarana is concerned, if you wan't to live in the armpit of universe have at it, 23 yrs was enough for me.


As cities go, I think it's a pretty good one, but of course any place is only as good as a person's last experience there. I like the culture, I like the neighbourhoods...but I don't know if the current market can prop up the downtown luxury condos. Immigration generally works its way out to the burbs as newcomers become sucessfully integrated.

But best of luck, everybody, and may this be a minor storm.



posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 12:21 PM
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We're in a false economy that hasn't seen the trickle down effect and the Olympic cash infusion is only prolonging the agony.


I truly hope we do not dip. I work in construction...Boilermakers(permit), as well as CEDIA certified tech (telephone, cable , internet, theatre, live sound etc) and I left Atlanta Ga. because I saw the bust coming.

If this is a false economy or if we take a bigger dip then Harper's goverment has stated I am going to have to find other means with which to keep the lights on!

Peace

WR



posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 12:42 PM
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Originally posted by whiteraven
Back in the late 1970 era and early 1980's Calgary realeastate went upside down.

I remember a lot of people walking away from their homes.

If any of you want to see or read about the horrible way the Canadian goverment treated people during the great depression read "The Great Depression" by Pierre Berton. www.amazon.com...

Very good read by a man who shared the herb with the late Prime Minister Trudeau.


White Raven.

I remember the early 80's in Edmonton, I had a place there back then. When people tried to sell, then, it wasn't a matter of what price you were asking, there were simply NO BIDS.


The big difference today is back then mortgages in Alberta were "non-recourse", i.e. the bank couldn't go after you for more than your house. Today all mortgages are "recourse", namely they will go after any mortgage shortfall by taking your car, your RRSP, etc.

FAR different ballgame, sadly.



posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 12:46 PM
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After having spent time in Fort McMurray, I can honestly say this is long overdue. When trailers up there are going for nearly $500K, there is a problem. While I don't see there being a huge drop, I think things will settle down and normalize...or as normal as it gets in Alberta anyways.



posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 01:13 PM
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The big difference today is back then mortgages in Alberta were "non-recourse", i.e. the bank couldn't go after you for more than your house. Today all mortgages are "recourse", namely they will go after any mortgage shortfall by taking your car, your RRSP, etc.


I wonder who passed this law? Sort of stacks the favour toward the banks.

I have a love hate relationship with banks and big biz.

I make my living off of construction, big biz, almost all based on the oil economy yet I hate the very nature of it which irks me.
I wish we as Canadians could find a good balance in order to preserve this beautiful Country as well as to maintain a good middle class lifestyle.

I have no debts except I owe Rev Canada a little and I refuse to take on any debt whatsoever. I like my ability to pack up and move at a moments notice more then the idea of being saddled with debt.

Nevertheless I live fairly large, from a poor mans point of view..ie I eat steaks, roasts, fresh potatoes, fresh veggie have cable internet, three cell phones, High Def, drink Guiness and good wine etc blah blah blah..( normal for most but I view it all as extreme lux) and I would hate to cut back....pig that I am.

But I have lived close to the land before in my younger days (some call it homeless I called it freedom and travel) so I am not too too worried......

Just a little soft.....I have stocked up so I have enough for maybe one year if the shtf.

Sorry to ramble on.

To get back on track my two older girls may buy the family farm on my ex old ladys side of the family for dirt cheap and this may be a good place to ride out a storm if the economy tanks.

Peace
WR

3 cell phones are for daughters, old lady

[edit on 29-10-2008 by whiteraven]



posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 02:30 PM
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Well I showed up at one of my jobsites today to get the board crew goin and was told to only finish what we started yesterday, about 4 hrs work for the crew and to call it a day! Thats one of 3 projects I am conracting and one of the other ones at Spring Creek just canceled phase 4 which leaves me about 6 months or so of work there so if this is getting worse then I am worried.

The jobsite I was told to leave alone today had noone besides a few framers when they should be doing LOTS of electrical, plumbing and tin bashing to get ready for more board to be tossed up so things look lke they might be going to s stand still because of these inflated prices. I am pretty sure I'll be able to keep busy but I really want to keep things going the way they were I was doing really well (.



posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 06:23 PM
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Originally posted by leo123

Originally posted by ARNOMANNN
Merrill lynch is jumping the gun I think. The housing situation is not the same as it is in the U.S.. People will not be losing their homes to the banks like they are in the States, sure It will slow down abit but that will be only in certain areas and for a small period of time. I live in Niagara Falls and there is no shortage of new homes here. We are constantly seeing subdivisions popping up. The price to buy a home is coming down, but that also is reflected in the down turn in the economy. Housing prices have been over-inflated for too long. I'm hoping now it will be a more real reflection of they are worth


ARNOMANNN:

Don't kid yourself, even Canada started issuing 0% down mortgages and 40 year amortizations several years ago. You do the math now that those tens of thousands of people are underwater on their mortgage and the supply of listings has gone through the roof.

JK's 2 bits


The percentage of sub prime mortgages in Canada is 4 % compared to the United States is 40%. Most, If not all mortgages are insured by the CMHC or the Banks..... If people have to sell/foreclose the banks aren't going to be out that money



posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 06:52 PM
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reply to post by Rook1545
 


Yeah Fort Mac is my hometown actually. Let me tell you it sucks to be chased out of your hometown by greedy real estate investors.



posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 06:57 PM
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reply to post by red_leader
 


There is a 0% down option for first time home buyers. I believe it's been in play for about 4 years now? We purchased our home with 0% down...just had to have closing costs, and I think (I'd have to ask my husband as he's the financial guru around here) a tad bit higher interest rate.

Michelle



posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 09:15 PM
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Originally posted by ARNOMANNN
The percentage of sub prime mortgages in Canada is 4 % compared to the United States is 40%. Most, If not all mortgages are insured by the CMHC or the Banks..... If people have to sell/foreclose the banks aren't going to be out that money


ARNOMANNN:

I am not questioning your data, but links would be appreciated.

Further we need to adress the Merrill report yesterday highlighting the fact

"Inventories of unsold new single-family homes in Canada rose by 56 per cent year over year as of last month close to the maximum increase in July 1990, which marked the last housing market downturn, the report said.

At the peak in April 2006, inventories of unsold new single-family homes in the United States were up 26.5 per cent over a year earlier, the report said.

The two-year lag could be the result of Canada having more room to run up because its recovery started later than that of the United States. Strong commodity prices and looser lending standards initiated in 2006 may also have contributed to the lag, the report said."

www.reportonbusiness.com...



posted on Oct, 29 2008 @ 09:19 PM
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Originally posted by Michelle129
reply to post by red_leader
 


There is a 0% down option for first time home buyers. I believe it's been in play for about 4 years now? We purchased our home with 0% down...just had to have closing costs, and I think (I'd have to ask my husband as he's the financial guru around here) a tad bit higher interest rate.

Michelle


Michelle:

Not to be cruel or anything, but maybe you should ask your hubby what you could realistically sell your place to for, verses what your mortgage is.

Remember, you have a recourse mortgage which means the bank can go after you for any shortfall on your mortgage should you choose to sell or walk.



posted on Oct, 30 2008 @ 02:50 PM
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Originally posted by leo123

Originally posted by ARNOMANNN
The percentage of sub prime mortgages in Canada is 4 % compared to the United States is 40%. Most, If not all mortgages are insured by the CMHC or the Banks..... If people have to sell/foreclose the banks aren't going to be out that money


ARNOMANNN:

I am not questioning your data, but links would be appreciated.

Further we need to adress the Merrill report yesterday highlighting the fact

"Inventories of unsold new single-family homes in Canada rose by 56 per cent year over year as of last month close to the maximum increase in July 1990, which marked the last housing market downturn, the report said.

At the peak in April 2006, inventories of unsold new single-family homes in the United States were up 26.5 per cent over a year earlier, the report said.

The two-year lag could be the result of Canada having more room to run up because its recovery started later than that of the United States. Strong commodity prices and looser lending standards initiated in 2006 may also have contributed to the lag, the report said."

www.reportonbusiness.com...



My "links" were the CBC news at Ten......And I really question how Merrill Lynch is getting their data. Like I said, the housing market might be slowing alittle bit here, but not by what they are saying.........



posted on Oct, 31 2008 @ 04:01 AM
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This just in on Mish's site, Global Economic Trend Analysis..

Construction Grinds to a Halt in Vancouver


The Ritz-Carlton hotel and condos is among the richest development to begin construction in Vancouver, a $2,500-per-square foot, 58-storey ultra-luxury tower with an eye-catching 45-degree twist designed by Arthur Erickson.

But that $500-million design is currently little more than a half-completed hole in the ground ...



posted on Nov, 20 2008 @ 10:27 AM
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reply to post by red_leader
 


Hi I live in Ontario and worked (past tense) for one of the financial institutions, which will remain nameless. But yes, 0% down mortgages with 40 year amortization do exist. The bank was really big on pushing these mortgages for "new homebuyers" (ie. young people, students just entering the workforce etc.) who do not have money saved up for a downpayment. I did not like these mortgage products at all. We still had to sell them so management would get off our back and we could meet our sales targets. In my opinion, it is NOT a good way to purchase a home. Just think about it: You just got into the workforce get a good job start making a little bit of money, and you're now already in debt to a bank for hundreds of thousands of dollars for the next 40 years of your life. And hopefully, you're home won't decrease in value while your still paying your morgage at a really high interest rate. These types of mortgages obviously aren't cheap. Just rent for a while and save up the money for a decent downpayment, you'll save a lot of money in the long run. I am now done working for the "financial services industry" and will never go back.



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