Your electoral college prediction?

If McCain were to win come Nov 4th I think it would be through Colorado and Virginia, and most probably by afew percentage points. Either way I see Obama gaining the popular vote.

As the previous post said, this may cause yet again a dispute.

Hey, lets have a contest and whoever is closest gets 1000 ATS points.

Let me think about this a min.

Originally posted by nixie_nox
Hey, lets have a contest and whoever is closest gets 1000 ATS points.

Let me think about this a min.

I can't EAT points!

pts would be logistically easier I know

[edit on 28-10-2008 by OldThinker]

reply to post by deathhasnosound


I disagree, I have been in PA a few times in different areas and I saw a lot of Obama support outside of Philly and it was 50/50 more towards the west.

Originally posted by OldThinker

Originally posted by nixie_nox
Hey, lets have a contest and whoever is closest gets 1000 ATS points.

Let me think about this a min.

I can't EAT points!

pts would be logistically easier I know

[edit on 28-10-2008 by OldThinker]

LOL
I make a mean upside down pineapple cake.

I always said it is a shame that we can't bet with our points.

***still thinking of what the final score will be***

Originally posted by vor78
reply to post by AndrewTB

 

My guess is that McCain will be tied or leading in the Gallup poll tomorrow morning. Given that its a three day rolling average, in order to go from 50-45 Obama to 49-47, a little quick math indicates that the latest day of polling for McCain was extremely good: 51-47 in his favor.

I'm guessing that they have the race tied tomorrow morning.

You are probably right, and as I suggested in my last post another pollster came out and adjusted their poll with an inflated number therefore raising the average. Too bad im off to work and really cant start digging into my theory atm.

i stared a thread on this a while back. check it out. i essentially bumped it so its easy to find here in the 08 forums now.

Originally posted by AndrewTB

The cell phone age was popular in 2004 but in the past 4 years its exploded. I think phone polling is highly inaccurate. The media outlets have fooled everyone into thinking Obama's already won, so the aftermath will not be pretty.


[edit on 10/28/2008 by AndrewTB]

I agree with some of your estimates, but as far as cell phones and the fact that polling doesn't track the very large segment of the population using only cell phones...this leans heavily toward Obama...the youth vote.

By the way...You can go here on NPRs website to play with the electoral map and see what happens.

Click on the states to change their outcome. Hover your cursor over them to see latest polling. Totals at the bottom.

Well I can't get the link to take you straight there. Go to the link below and click on "begin now"

www.npr.org...#/president-userOvM/

[edit on 28-10-2008 by maybereal11]

[edit on 28-10-2008 by maybereal11]

[edit on 28-10-2008 by maybereal11]

reply to post by maybereal11


It may have in 2000 and possibly 2004, but I think that as time goes on, that's becoming more myth than reality. I'm sure that it still skews somewhat young, but maybe not as much as one might expect. A lot of people of all ages are ditching their land lines these days, even in this rural town I live in.

reply to post by maybereal11


Nice find.

Based on trends, I am going to give it to Obama.

I predict he will lose FL, MO, OH and pick up NV NM and NH.
I think OH will be hotly contested and the machines will pick it up for McCain.

Obama 291
McCain 247

OK,

I am gonna go Obama for 290 to 248.

I'm going to go with

273 - McCain
265 - Obama

There are several factors why I think McCain will win by a small margin.

-I think the largest is that Obama is depending on the youth/newbie vote & as others have mentioned, it lacks dependability.

-I also believe that right or wrong, the Bradley effect will play a small role in this election. I'm not saying we are a nation of racists. What I'm saying is I think once some get into that booth on election day, they may rethink their answer to the question, "Is the country ready for a minority to hold our highest office?" Personally, race has no bearing on my decision, but I feel it will come into play for others when the "cameras" are off.

-I think the half hour of air time Obama purchased will harm him. Regardless of what he says or even how he says it, I think some are going to see it as a presumptuous move on Obama's part to address the nation as if he were already our next president. (I think many are already feeling this way with the onslaught of media notations of his lead in various polls & how some media are already basically calling it for him.)

-I think the dem's pushing of the bail-out that 90% of the US population did not want will reflect ngatively on Obama. I think many are underestimating this one & that it will become the surpise factor most did not see coming. (I have an aunt who has voted straight dem for 50 plus years. This year she has stated she is voting against dem's becuase of their bailout support & I'm betting she's not the only one.)


Over-all, I think Americans do not like to be told how they should think or feel & after our voices were not heard during the bailout vote, I feel many are going to use this election to make sure they hear us loud and clear.


[edit on 29/10/2008 by lynn112]

Originally posted by lynn112
-I think the half hour of air time Obama purchased will harm him. Regardless of what he says or even how he says it, I think some are going to see it as a presumptuous move on Obama's part to address the nation as if he were already our next president. (I think many are already feeling this way with the onslaught of media notations of his lead in various polls & how some media are already basically calling it for him.)

I agree with this. I feel that not only will the ad tonight hurt Obama, but, at least here in Florida, I have seen NOTHING but Obama ads on TV. I was never an Obama supporter, but if I was I wouldn't be happy that ever other ad on TV had his face in it, and if I was undecided, this would probably put me into the McCain column.

As for my prediction, I think that it will be 269-269. Both camps will have been surprised by some of their wins [McCain wins PA, Obama wins OH]. McCain will win the popular vote. Then the poop will hit the fan when the democratically controlled congress [which is what is called for in the Constitution] elects Obama as president, completely negating the American people's will.

reply to post by lynn112


Although I dont agree with you with everything you said I will agree that the bradley effect will come into play, and anybody who denies this fact is obviously in denial.

Initially I had my electoral count at 273-265 Obama but after a while of excluding virginia and looking at the new factors coming into play here, Iv given him above 280.

I dont believe this will be landslide like some will say, infact I think its highly careless to assume this race is finished or to assume of any landslide. The past should be a lesson to us.

Originally posted by southern_Guardian
Initially I had my electoral count at 273-265 Obama but after a while of excluding virginia and looking at the new factors coming into play here, Iv given him above 280.

I have changes around a bit, too. My cautious guess (for the contest) is Obama 280.

mccain 270
obama 168

oh man was I OFF

Oh well its good...

I believe the counting of the votes is still going on, right? Some states are talking about recounts and I heard one mention of revoting today. I'm sure it won't change the outcome but I thought it was worth mentioning.