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Your electoral college prediction?

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posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 03:56 AM
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I dont know if this has been posted before, I searched for a thread like this but there appears to be none.

Does anybody here have an electoral college prediction come November 4th? I have a prediction but that doesnt necessarily mean Im all closed to a possible McCain win, it is possible, but yes I predict that Obama will gain the necessary electoral college points to reach that magical 270.

At first my prediction was that Obama was going to win 273 against McCains 265. I predicted before that this race would come down to Colorado and that Obama will barely win that state by about 4 percentage points. That being said looking at Virginia and howmuch of a stronghold that state has become for Obama, I have decided to reconsider my prediction however stubborn I have been and change it to 286 for Obama.

My November 4th electoral college prediction will be 286 for Obama and 252 for McCain.

I dont believe Obama will win Florida neither do I think he had a chance in gaining North Carolina and Nevada. I also believe that looking at Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia, I am not convinced enough about the buzz over those battle ground states. I believe they will go to McCain and thats probably because of past elections and just the general red resurgence in those states and that tend to happen.

Well dont flame me if im completely wrong but this is my conservative prediction come Nov 4th. Obama's 286 to McCain's 252.

I would love to hear other electoral college predictions here. Anybody have any predictions? Doesnt necessarily be certain.




posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 03:59 AM
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I still wouldn't be surprised to see McCain win by a few electoral votes. This election reeks of fraud and I think that if it is close, there will be riots.... regardless of which side wins.



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 04:14 AM
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My prediction is that McCain will win the popular vote by over 50.000+ votes.
but Obama will win the electoral collage vote and be elected president.

This will cause such a uprising of the people that by the next election after that we will have disbanded the electoral collage system of voting for the president.
or we will have a civil war.



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 04:36 AM
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Thats a pritty interesting scenario I never thought of, yet it was such a reality during the 2000 elections and the primaries. Yes that will be an issue, but then again I disagree with McCain having more of the popular vote. Though thats just me.



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 05:24 AM
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It's really hard to determine who will take the Popular Vote. Polls are not good enough indicators, as certain demographics partake in them.

It's also hard to determine which way the Electoral College will sway because the Shadow Government doesn't show enough in public record.

All I know for certain is that the Electoral College voted Bush for two terms. My hopes are not too high


I would say it's all up to chance, but I have this sick feeling in my stomach that says it's already been decided.

[edit on 28-10-2008 by Lucid Lunacy]



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 05:43 AM
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posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 05:56 AM
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Obama will win the electoral college vote by a wide margin and the popular vote by a very small margin.

The anti Obama crowd will cry fraud, conspiracy, compare Obama to Hitler, Mao, Stalin, Lenin, etc. The pro Obama crowd will cry racism and their usual lines comparing anyone who opposes Obama as a Nazi, Redneck, etc.

I fully expect a low grade civil war over this issue. I would not be shocked if I turned on FOX News or CNN one morning next summer and see a full scale battle in the streets of Washington as one side or another attempts a coup, this is how polarizing this election has been. I dont see it as liberals/blue states vs conservatives/red states with the fence sitters in the middle, I see it as Communism vs Fascism with the sane people in the middle. I am truly frighted for this Republic of ours as I doubt either side will accept defeat come next Tuesday.

[edit on 28-10-2008 by ChrisF231]



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 05:58 AM
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Well, you can chalk up Florida and PA to McCain thanks to Biden's arrogance.



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 06:54 AM
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Originally posted by ChrisF231
I dont see it as liberals/blue states vs conservatives/red states with the fence sitters in the middle, I see it as Communism vs Fascism with the sane people in the middle.


So the 'middle' people would be the socialists then right?


[edit on 28-10-2008 by Lucid Lunacy]



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 07:01 AM
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It's obvious isn't it? One side will squeak out a win. There will be some chatter about fraudulent voter registration. Half of the country will be ticked off and we'll stay at each other's throats for another 4 years.

Rinse well, apply Prell, lather, rise, repeat.....



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 08:33 AM
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reply to post by southern_Guardian
 


286-252 for NoBama sounds about right, although I still want to see the weekend polls before making a real prediction. Working from RCP's map, I think McCain will win all of the toss ups plus Ohio, which would give that total.

This election will likely be decided in just two states: Pennsylvania and Virginia. If McCain wins Pennsylvania, he's very likely to win the election. If he loses there, he must win Virginia, but will also need Colorado and/or score a couple of mild upsets elsewhere (NH and NM seem most likely; he would need both if Obama wins CO).

If he loses both Pennsylvania and Virginia, you can turn the lights out early, its over. He would very likely lose narrowly, but there's no apparent path to victory for McCain in that scenario.

[edit on 28-10-2008 by vor78]



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 09:14 AM
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Taking into consideration the Bradley effect 10% loss for Obama. The anti-Obama Hillary vote 5% loss for Obama, and the Undecided vote 7% for McCain, I would say that McCain will take 290 electoria votes, and win the popular by 1.5 million votes. He will retain Ohio and Florida and gain Pennsylvania.

Let us not forget how far ahead Kerry was in the polls this time four years ago...


[edit on 28-10-2008 by Fromabove]



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 12:35 PM
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See my sig.

The below is all in favor of McCain.

I think the bradley effect if it comes into play at all will make a 1-2% difference.

I believe 70% of undecideds will go with McCain. 5-7%

Elephant Effect (High voter turnout on the conserv side) 3%


Hillary supporters are still mad. .25-1%


The cell phone age was popular in 2004 but in the past 4 years its exploded. I think phone polling is highly inaccurate. The media outlets have fooled everyone into thinking Obama's already won, so the aftermath will not be pretty.


Those that believe McCain has no chance will also not go to the polls accounting for another .5-1.5%


Virginia will go to McCain, so will OH, MO, FL, NC and NV. The rest are up in the air IMHO. I have a feeling despite being way behind he may pull out Pennsylvania, but dont quote me on that one.



[edit on 10/28/2008 by AndrewTB]



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 12:41 PM
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reply to post by AndrewTB
 


I'm beginning to believe the polls are total, utter and complete BS this year as well. I think there are a lot of pollsters pushing agendas this year, moreso than usual. The last round of polling this weekend will probably be the most accurate, as they're essentially final predictions and the place where the pollsters make their money and are forced to set aside biases.

Case in point? Gallup has it tightening to a 2 point race nationally this morning under its traditional model. Meanwhile, Pew Research has released a poll giving Obama a 16 point lead.

Obviously, someone is going to be wrong.

[edit on 28-10-2008 by vor78]



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 12:48 PM
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Originally posted by vor78
reply to post by AndrewTB
 


I'm beginning to believe the polls are total, utter and complete BS this year as well. I think there are a lot of pollsters pushing agendas this year, moreso than usual. The last round of polling this weekend will probably be the most accurate, as they're essentially final predictions and the place where the pollsters make their money and are forced to set aside biases.

Case in point? Gallup has it tightening to a 2 point race nationally this morning under its traditional model. Meanwhile, Pew Research has released a poll giving Obama a 16 point lead.

Obviously, someone is going to be wrong.

[edit on 28-10-2008 by vor78]


You are absolutely correct. I went ahead and did numbers myself adding up the pollsters that actually got 2004 right. The math comes out to about a 3 point lead on obamas part. It seems whenever the good pollsters come out with numbers in McCains favor the less known/experienced ones push out numbers like +14.

Ive been watching the polls closely and wouldn't be amazed if in the next day or two McCain squeezes out a minor lead.

People are suffering from Obama fatigue. I think this will hurt Obama at the polls.

[edit on 10/28/2008 by AndrewTB]



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 01:32 PM
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ATS should buy dinner to the poster who's the closest, after the vote...

I'll put my order in now...Bacon, extra cheese pizza with jelapenos, on the side.

Blue-collar, gun-toting, bible-thumping folks in PA and OH...

Retired, conservatives in FL...

will put McCain over the top, electorially!

Mr. Obama, will win the popular vote, thru 'new voters'

After atleast a month of legal ranglings, McCain takes the 2008 election and Obama becomes President in 2016.

OT



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 01:43 PM
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Originally posted by southern_Guardian
I would love to hear other electoral college predictions here. Anybody have any predictions? Doesnt necessarily be certain.


My original prediction (a month or so ago):
Obama 282
McCain 256

That has McCain winning Florida, Virginia, Missouri, Nevada and New Hampshire.
Obama has Pennsylvania, Ohio and Colorado.

I think the reality is a bit different now. Obama might take Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire and McCain may take Ohio.

That would change the numbers to:
Obama 306
McCain 232

So, the second one is, I think, more accurate.



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 01:53 PM
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reply to post by AndrewTB
 


My guess is that McCain will be tied or leading in the Gallup poll tomorrow morning. Given that its a three day rolling average, in order to go from 50-45 Obama to 49-47, a little quick math indicates that the latest day of polling for McCain was extremely good: 51-47 in his favor.

I'm guessing that they have the race tied tomorrow morning.



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 02:02 PM
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Originally posted by Benevolent Heretic
I think the reality is a bit different now. Obama might take Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire and McCain may take Ohio.


Florida continues to be a mess.
The polling lead (averaged) for Obama is under 2% and McCain has been trending up.

Nevada, however shows a wider lead with an upward Obama trend.

I would not be surprised to see Obama lose Florida and win Nevada.
Obama would still get the lion's share of EV's but the margin would be much tighter.



posted on Oct, 28 2008 @ 02:04 PM
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The problem with the "new voters" is that if they believe that this game belongs to Obama they will tend to stay home. The same goes for the youth vote. I have examples of both in my family from the primaries. One was a young person of 18, a newly registered young voter, gung-ho for Obama for appearences sake. Though I disagreed with her choice I encouraged and even offered a ride to the polls to her. Come primary vote day, she decided to go out with her boyfriend instead confident Obama was going to beat Hillary by a large percentage. All the polls said so. Obama lost by 15 percentage points. The new and young voters never showed. This has been proven to be the case in all elections which is why Obama is doing his vote before the election campaign.

BTW, if all the Obama voters vote before hand, the exit polls will show McCain beating Obama all the day long till the bitter end of the night.



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