Two interesting articles I wanted to bring to your attention.
First, the Market Dispatches from MSN yesterday - for the most part of the day, the Stock market was in the gutter about 100 points, until the last 15
minutes of the day when it rallied to make a tremendous comeback and finished up 175 points.
Reading MSN Market Dispatches for an answer as to why, I saw something very interesting:
Why the day was so wild and crazy
There were multiple explanations for the recovery, including:
A big rally in energy stocks. The Select Sector SPDR-Energy (XLE, news, msgs) exchange-traded fund was up 5.3% to $46.55, tops among the ETFs that
tracks the components of the S&P 500. The gain was due in part to an uptick in oil prices and an anticipation of OPEC's Friday decision.
Better-than-expected results from an auction of credit default swaps on the debt of the now-failed Washington Mutual (WAMUQ, news, msgs). The results
mean that companies that had agreed to pay off WaMu debt in the event of defaults won't have to pay as much as expected.
More stability in credit markets.
Polls that suggest a substantial tightening of the presidential race.
Source:
articles.moneycentral.msn.com...
Notice that last line in their reasons why. For the last few weeks we've been hearing how Obama has a significant lead in the polls over McCain. So
why would a tightening of the polls make a difference? Could it be that the market realizes that Obama's tax plan is going to cost more than he says
it will and will actually do more harm to the community?
I was skeptical and at a loss to explain that comment from MSN, until I saw this article from the New York Post:
Title: "An Obama Panic? Markets Fear His Politics"
Most investors know the devil is in the details - and the details of Obama's economic plans are anything but reassuring.
and
The resulting credit crunch is hitting Main Street harder than ever before. The country is headed for recession; the only question is: Just how
low can the markets and economy go?
It could be a lot lower - it all depends on the policies of the next president.
And, as it looks increasingly likely that Obama will be that man, the markets are casting a vote of "no confidence."
www.nypost.com...
So that offered a bit of an explanation to me as for the jump in markets directly attributed to a tightening of the race.
By the way, lending credibility to the suggestion that the race is dead even , I found this on Gallup (they didn't give a margin of error):
Title: "Early Voters Evenly Split Politically"
Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted Oct. 17-22 finds that among those who have already voted or say they plan to vote before Election Day, 31%
support Barack Obama and 29% support John McCain.
Source:
www.gallup.com...