AP Poll shows Obama/McCain even as of 10/22, page 1
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reply posted on 23-10-2008 @ 12:38 PM by MOFreemason
reply to post by RRconservative


McCain needs to sweep the 6-8 "independent" states.

Not looking good for McCain.


reply posted on 23-10-2008 @ 12:47 PM by MOFreemason
reply to post by sos37


I looked up the article, it was a recent AP poll that indicated a margin-of-error of 3.5%.

Polls are just polls. A national representation means nothing since we're on an electoral college system. All figures show Obama to have virtually secured enough electoral votes at this stage. Again, McCain would have to sweep all the "bellweather" states in order to win this.

CNN Electoral Vote Estimate »


Barack Obama 277 174 John McCain
192 Safe | 85 Leaning 122 Safe | 52 Leaning
270 to win
Tossup: 87


You call the race! See CNN's estimate, then make your own.
Try out our Electoral College calculator



reply posted on 23-10-2008 @ 12:49 PM by vor78
reply to post by RRconservative


I'm not expecting that much of swing, but I do suspect that McCain will do about 3-4% better nationally than the polls indicate, so if the final round of polls have him within 5% or so of Obama, he's got a shot.

High turnout is a big X-factor this year as well. Early voting has been much higher in my county than usual; this is the first time I've ever seen lines in early voting. Given what I'm seeing and hearing everywhere, its strongly in favor of McCain here. Its a conservative area, mind you, but Dems probably have a 3-1 registration advantage (they're traditional Reagan Dems). If that plays out in other smaller towns across this country, it may be a much different result than what the polls are currently predicting.

In any event, this is shaping up to be a very unusual election night and I expect to see a few shocking results once all is said and done.


[edit on 23-10-2008 by vor78]
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