AP Poll shows Obama/McCain even as of 10/22, page 1

AP Poll shows Obama/McCain even as of 10/22, page

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Topic started on 23-10-2008 @ 12:31 PM by sos37

Again, I don't put much stock in polls, but why this poll differs from other media polls has me wondering. I maintain that the race is going to be tight and will spill over into the weeks after Nov. 4 with calls for recounts.

WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Source: apnews.myway.com...

reply posted on 23-10-2008 @ 12:37 PM by RRconservative

If you look back at all elections since 1980, Polls right before the election seem to favor the Democrat by 8% pts.

It's looking real good for McCain.

reply posted on 23-10-2008 @ 12:37 PM by MOFreemason

44% - 43% = 1%.

Seems like a one-point differential there. Headline indicates even. (Not counting the margin of error, of course.)

reply posted on 23-10-2008 @ 12:38 PM by thisguyrighthere

I hate polls. They influence things more than people think. I'm convinced of that. People think their candidate is a sure thing they're apt to stay home. They hear he's down they rush to the polls.

Regardless. I wish McCain would go after Obama/Bidens desire to reinstate the AWB. I think there are an awful lot of shooters/hunters who have been tricked by the fake ASHA or whatever it is claiming Obama is a pro-2nd guy. Well, pro as he interprets it anyway.

reply posted on 23-10-2008 @ 12:38 PM by MOFreemason

reply to post by RRconservative

McCain needs to sweep the 6-8 "independent" states.

Not looking good for McCain.

reply posted on 23-10-2008 @ 12:41 PM by sos37

This is going to be one for the history books all right, especially if Obama loses. Obama, an educated, accomplished Senator will have been unhinged at the last moment by Joe the Plumber, a Virginia man with no plumbing license who just asked a simple question about Obama's tax policy.

reply posted on 23-10-2008 @ 12:42 PM by sos37

Originally posted by MOFreemason
44% - 43% = 1%.

Seems like a one-point differential there. Headline indicates even. (Not counting the margin of error, of course.)

I think they must be counting the margin of error. It's the only way they can say they are even in the poll.

reply posted on 23-10-2008 @ 12:47 PM by MOFreemason

reply to post by sos37

I looked up the article, it was a recent AP poll that indicated a margin-of-error of 3.5%.

Polls are just polls. A national representation means nothing since we're on an electoral college system. All figures show Obama to have virtually secured enough electoral votes at this stage. Again, McCain would have to sweep all the "bellweather" states in order to win this.

CNN Electoral Vote Estimate »

Barack Obama 277 174 John McCain
192 Safe | 85 Leaning 122 Safe | 52 Leaning
270 to win
Tossup: 87

You call the race! See CNN's estimate, then make your own.
Try out our Electoral College calculator

reply posted on 23-10-2008 @ 12:48 PM by SEEWHATUDO

Originally posted by sos37
I maintain that the race is going to be tight and will spill over into the weeks after Nov. 4 with calls for recounts.

NOOOO,NO,NO,NO not again. (hurry, take it back)
I am so tired of this campaign I cannot take a long drawn out election and quite honestly I think the country will suffer more division if that is the outcome.
As I have said in other threads on polls, polls are not up to date with modern technology so I don't put any stock in them.
I don't care if you are a McCain or Obama supporter the polls are bogus.
Like someone else said on this thread the only good they are for is maybe people will get off their buts and vote if the race looks tight.

reply posted on 23-10-2008 @ 12:49 PM by vor78

reply to post by RRconservative

I'm not expecting that much of swing, but I do suspect that McCain will do about 3-4% better nationally than the polls indicate, so if the final round of polls have him within 5% or so of Obama, he's got a shot.

High turnout is a big X-factor this year as well. Early voting has been much higher in my county than usual; this is the first time I've ever seen lines in early voting. Given what I'm seeing and hearing everywhere, its strongly in favor of McCain here. Its a conservative area, mind you, but Dems probably have a 3-1 registration advantage (they're traditional Reagan Dems). If that plays out in other smaller towns across this country, it may be a much different result than what the polls are currently predicting.

In any event, this is shaping up to be a very unusual election night and I expect to see a few shocking results once all is said and done.

[edit on 23-10-2008 by vor78]

reply posted on 23-10-2008 @ 12:57 PM by damwel

Originally posted by sos37
I maintain that the race is going to be tight and will spill over into the weeks after Nov. 4 with calls for recounts.

I predict that the whole election will be over before the west coast polls even close. Obama only needs 270 votes and it looks like he has those already. Stick a fork in McCain, he's done.

reply posted on 23-10-2008 @ 08:08 PM by Frankidealist35

Uh... that's only one poll.

RCP Average 10/16 - 10/22 -- -- 50.1 42.6 Obama +7.5
CBS News/NY Times 10/19 - 10/22 771 LV -- 52 39 Obama +13
Rasmussen Reports 10/20 - 10/22 3000 LV 2.0 52 45 Obama +7
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/20 - 10/22 2384 LV 2.0 50 46 Obama +4
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/20 - 10/22 2299 LV 2.0 51 45 Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/20 - 10/22 1208 LV 2.9 52 40 Obama +12
Hotline/FD 10/20 - 10/22 769 LV 3.5 48 43 Obama +5
FOX News 10/20 - 10/21 936 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
ABC News/Wash Post 10/19 - 10/22 1335 LV 2.5 54 43 Obama +11
IBD/TIPP 10/18 - 10/22 1088 LV 3.0 45 44 Obama +1
GWU/Battleground 10/16 - 10/22 1000 LV 3.1 49 45 Obama +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 1159 RV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
Associated Press/GfK 10/16 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5 44 43 Obama +1
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16 - 10/20 773 LV 3.5 50 42 Obama +8
CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV 2.5 53 39 Obama +14