Testing of the Oct 10 Dow low

I think it was around ~7780 (I am at home).

Let's see whether it holds, if so it could be forming a basing pattern (potential triple bottom). If not, all bets are off.

Do keep in mind a minor break of it to the downside is no big deal, but if we have a declining wave closing below it, all bets are certainly off.

I am reasonably confident we have a hands on bet this test might hold.

That said, it will not be a "V" shaped recovery where you should empty whats left of the kitchen sink and pour back in.

This recovery - if it takes hold - will take many amoon to resolve itselve. Don't be in a hurry.

JK

The Dow is not a good indicator. Dow only tracks 30 stocks. S&P is a much better indicator - it tracks 500 company stocks.

S&P500 closed at 896.78 today (10/22) after a day drop of 58.27 (6.10% down)

If the S&P can hold at 875 tomorrow and Friday, then we may still have a bit longer, if it does not hold there, it is possible that the real Hard Crash is upon us.

my guess... (for g*d sake, do not take this seriously)

Oct 23 - aprox DJI +215
Oct 24 - aprox DJI - 75
Oct 27 - aprox DJI - 325
Oct 28 - aprox DJI - 50


...and the VIX back up around 70, 75

[edit on 22-10-2008 by TrainDispatcher]

The sad thing is that there doesn't seem to be any bright news on the
horizon to bring money back into the markets. Companies are planning
to lay off more workers, Christmas spending will be way down. President
Obama will be raising taxes on businesses, which will bring more layoffs.

I invested a sizeable chunk of money (sizeable for me) into several
stocks last week thinking we were near the bottom. I earned 12% last
week and lost all of that gain this week. I hope the bottom was reached
today, but the bad earnings and employment forecasts keep coming and
are getting worse. It seems that the $700 Billion bailout was like trying
to put out a house fire by spitting on it.

Originally posted by carewemust
The sad thing is that there doesn't seem to be any bright news on the
horizon to bring money back into the markets. Companies are planning
to lay off more workers, Christmas spending will be way down. President
Obama will be raising taxes on businesses, which will bring more layoffs.

I invested a sizeable chunk of money (sizeable for me) into several
stocks last week thinking we were near the bottom. I earned 12% last
week and lost all of that gain this week. I hope the bottom was reached
today, but the bad earnings and employment forecasts keep coming and
are getting worse. It seems that the $700 Billion bailout was like trying
to put out a house fire by spitting on it.

You invested in the markets ... gosh you got balls off steel .. no way in hell id invest anything in the markets now..

Originally posted by redhatty
The Dow is not a good indicator. Dow only tracks 30 stocks. S&P is a much better indicator - it tracks 500 company stocks.

S&P500 closed at 896.78 today (10/22) after a day drop of 58.27 (6.10% down)

If the S&P can hold at 875 tomorrow and Friday, then we may still have a bit longer, if it does not hold there, it is possible that the real Hard Crash is upon us.

It is definitely a good indicator as far as the stock market goes. The NASDAQ, S&P500, and the DJIA all follow almost exactly the same graph. Percentages are slightly different but the pattern is the same.... just look at today for example....



The graphs always look like this.

...I have never done bad on railroad stocks

Bill Gates has millions invested in rr.

Last week, they told us they are actually turning down business because they cant keep up.

reply to post by E-ville


E-Ville, it didn't take "balls of steel". I have several clients who now have
over $1 million in net worth because they started in stocks during the
down times in the late 1980's. A few thousand dollars grew geometrically
into tens of thousands and then to hundreds of thousands as they
diversified into other forms of investments.

One of these clients told me on October 12th to bite the bullet and dump
as much as I could into certain stocks... to follow his lead. He said that
people called him "crazy" when he did this in 1987, but the same friends
now call him for advice and guidance. Bottom line is that unless America
goes belly-up, the stocks we buy today will make us lots of money over
the next decade. If America does go belly-up, then we lose whatever we
have anyway...no matter where it is. Might as well go for the gusto, IMO.
-cwm

Originally posted by carewemust
reply to post by E-ville

 

E-Ville, it didn't take "balls of steel". I have several clients who now have
over $1 million in net worth because they started in stocks during the
down times in the late 1980's. A few thousand dollars grew geometrically
into tens of thousands and then to hundreds of thousands as they
diversified into other forms of investments.

One of these clients told me on October 12th to bite the bullet and dump
as much as I could into certain stocks... to follow his lead. He said that
people called him "crazy" when he did this in 1987, but the same friends
now call him for advice and guidance. Bottom line is that unless America
goes belly-up, the stocks we buy today will make us lots of money over
the next decade. If America does go belly-up, then we lose whatever we
have anyway...no matter where it is. Might as well go for the gusto, IMO.
-cwm

True.. good point, however i have little extra and im investing in other things that will continue to "payout" but not in cash, but in food and other nessesities.

I wish ya luck.. I have money in the market in the 401k but I wont be doubling down with straight up investments.

reply to post by TrainDispatcher


Railroad stocks are poised to do even better if the new Amtrak high
speed rail initiative gets funded. The way the government is shelling
out money, it makes you wonder if they're printing it as needed.

Originally posted by E-ville

I wish ya luck.. I have money in the market in the 401k but I wont be doubling down with straight up investments.

Thanks E-Ville. Good luck to you too. If you're still adding to the
401K, you'll do very well when the upward cycle begins.
-cwm

Originally posted by carewemust
I have several clients who now have over $1 million in net worth because they started in stocks during the down times in the late 1980's.

I think we're in a much different situation than we were in 1987. That recovered completely in two years; we're not going to see DJIA 14k in two years.

reply to post by Anonymous Avatar


well you look at the graph you like - I'll look at the one I like

This is what I've been looking at lately though

Originally posted by carewemust
The sad thing is that there doesn't seem to be any bright news on the
horizon to bring money back into the markets. Companies are planning
to lay off more workers, Christmas spending will be way down. President
Obama will be raising taxes on businesses, which will bring more layoffs.

I invested a sizeable chunk of money (sizeable for me) into several
stocks last week thinking we were near the bottom. I earned 12% last
week and lost all of that gain this week. I hope the bottom was reached
today, but the bad earnings and employment forecasts keep coming and
are getting worse. It seems that the $700 Billion bailout was like trying
to put out a house fire by spitting on it.

carewemust:

The best time to invest in equities is when grown men are weeping in the streets and throwing up on their shoes.

JK

General Electric's stock is considered by many to be the bell weather stock of the US economy as it is such a diverse company.

It is retesting it's low right now.

JK

GE closed on a new low today.

This is signalling that conditions are worsening.

JK