US intelligence: Iran will be able to build first nuclear bomb by February

US intelligence: Iran will be able to build first nuclear bomb by February

www2.debka.com

US intelligence’s amended estimate, that Iran will be ready to build its first bomb just one month after the next US president is sworn in, is disclosed by DEBKAfile’s Washington sources as having been relayed as a guideline to the Middle East teams of both presidential candidates, Senators John McCain and Barack Obama.

The information prompted the assertion by Democratic vice presidential nominee Joseph Biden in Seattle Sunday, Oct. 19: “It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy.”

DEBKAfile’s military sources cite the new US timeline: By late January, 2009, Iran will have accumulated enough low-grade enriched uranium (up to 5%) for its “break-out” to weapons grade (90%) material within a short time. For this, the Iranians have achieved the necessary technology. In February, they can move on to start building their first nuclear bomb.

US intelligence believes Tehran has the personnel, plans and diagrams for a bomb and has been running experiments to this end for the past two years. The UN International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna last week asked Tehran to clarify recent complex experiments they conducted in detonating nuclear materials for a weapon, but received no answer.

(visit the link for the full news article)

I know it's debkafile... but Bush is leaving at the end of january... so he could strike before he gets the fark out of there....

But if it was only that...

"Theres going to be a crisis which will come along on the 21st, 22nd of January which we don't even know about right now!" -Colin Powell 10/19/2008

Colin Powell video interview at 2m40 saying it.


And Biden...here

ABC News' Matthew Jaffe Reports: Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., on Sunday guaranteed that if elected, Sen. Barack Obama., D-Ill., will be tested by an international crisis within his first six months in power and he will need supporters to stand by him as he makes tough, and possibly unpopular, decisions.

And there's always a pretext from the NWO to use the new president as the savior... Clinton blew up the WTC and the Oklhaoma building. Bush obviously 911 and the anthrax attacks against his political ennemies and the guy at the NYP who wrote a story on his daughter being drunk who died from anthrax.

So Biden + Powell + Iran + Israel + China blocking sanctions + US economy going down the tubes + low cost of oil = War with Iran.

And the wars of both democrats and republicans will go on. Democrats do war ``for the good of the people`` and republicans, ``for oil``... the same BS. Of course all the liberals will enjoy this... because it will be THEIR war. Most of Obama supporters are for an increase in troops in Afghanistan and possibly an attack in Pakistan and a bombing campaign against Iran... so McCain or Obama, the war on freedom will continue... and with the state of the military, expect a draft.

www2.debka.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

[edit on 21-10-2008 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by Vitchilo


I sense another pre-emptive strike in the works. It is dangerous for a country to make such assertions without evidence. I am not saying they don't have evidence, but they should tread lightly when it comes to Iran and anything nuclear.

They may be able to build their own in February, but they've got enough money stashed away to buy a few yesterday.

If 'terrorists' can get their mits on nuclear material, why can't an organized government . . .

Oh yeah . . . they can, but it is just not convenient at this time to bomb the living snot out of them.

i wonder if DEBKA is getting to be as `infamous` as sorcha faal?

since both have about the same level of reliability

so far according to debka, iran have allready made a bomb or suddenly will make one in XXX hours/days/weeks/months and will use on *insert western country* using there missile capability, which btw doesn`t reach europe


seriously - that site is junk.

seriously - that site is junk.

I know, but it's interesting to see what propaganda the Israeli medias give their people to support their BS.

Because this website is supposed to be a ``mossad`` israeli intelligence website... kind-a...

And we know that most of the time it's full propaganda... like Memri.

[edit on 21-10-2008 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by Vitchilo


the problem is that israel apologists take debka as God sworn truth and believe every darn word - wait and see when they start arriving here....

Well this, from another major Israelie news source directly contradicts what Debka is saying:

IAEA chief: Iran not close to developing nuclear weapons

By Haaretz Service and The Associated Press

Tags: Israel News, nuclear weapons

The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog agency said on Monday that Iran remains far from acquiring capabilities to develop nuclear weapons.

more...... www.haaretz.com...

DEBKAfile’s military sources cite the new US timeline: By late January, 2009, Iran will have accumulated enough low-grade enriched uranium (up to 5%) for its “break-out” to weapons grade (90%) material within a short time. For this, the Iranians have achieved the necessary technology. In February, they can move on to start building their first nuclear bomb.

So Debka is saying that in January they will have enough 5% uranium to make enough 90% uranium for a nuclear warhead. But... they have to enrich it. So Debka is saying that they can start enriching those 5% to 90% in February... which would take a lot of time... considering what hardware they have.

the problem is that israel apologists take debka as God sworn truth and believe every darn word - wait and see when they start arriving here....

Yeah I know... those people are a pain in the

The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog agency said on Monday that Iran remains far from acquiring capabilities to develop nuclear weapons.

Exactly. Even if they had enough 90% uranium for 100000 bombs, it wouldn't matter because you have to master the warhead thingee. And it's complex. Unless they have foreign aid, it will take them at least 5-7 years to do so... it's my estimate since they were estimating 10 years for NK to develop a nuclear warhead to fit on a missile.. something they haven't achieved yet.

And the only way for Iran to deliver nukes to wherever they want them... is to drop them from a bomber... which is highly unlikely that they would reach Isreal or even a US military base in Irak. And for giving it to Hizbullah? Come on. They would only be at the bomb stage... a long shot from a portable nuke.

[edit on 21-10-2008 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by princeofpeace


'Close' is obviously a relative concept.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

El Baradei: Iran could make a nuclear weapon in 6 months

El Baradei spoke on Al-Arabiya television on June 20, discussing Iran's nuclear program, and the potential for the Middle Eastern country to produce a nuclear weapon.

"If Iran wants to turn to the production of nuclear weapons, it must leave the NPT, expel the IAEA inspectors, and then it would need at least, considering the number of centrifuges and the quantity of uranium Iran has...It would need at least six months to one year," El Baradei said.

"Therefore, Iran will not be able to reach the point where we would wake up one morning to an Iran with a nuclear weapon," he said.

His interviewer then asked "If Iran decides today to expel the IAEA from the country, it will need six months to produce [nuclear] weapons?"

The IAEA chief answered, "It would need this period to produce a weapon, and to obtain highly-enriched uranium in sufficient quantities for a single nuclear weapon."

(yalibnan.com)

I dont trust the website hosting the news.
Its been proven wrong in the past.

FAS has a great analysis of current nuclear weapon capabilities:

fas.org...

reply to post by Vitchilo


Even 5% of nasty dirty uranium would be enough to cause problems if detonated in a dirty bomb scenario.

I worry more about Iran's capability to produce a crude EMP weapon.

reply to post by emsed1


personally im more worried about Israel, several reputable sources have reported they ahve been after bunker buster bombs and permission to over fly iraq to reach iran

bombs were granted flyover was denied by bush

bush leaves israel gets more stupid then usual bombs iran middle east erupts

bit of luck the "you wont understand what we are doing is right to begin with" means someones gonan kick israels ass in an attempt to stop it trouble making which it does so well

Maybe that the test for Obama if he becomes president. Iran will attack Israel just to see what Obama will do. Isnt that what Biden said 6 months. Just a thought.

Does anybody have any information how to vet the intelligence agency report for accuracy?

Last time they missed on accuracy on Iraq by a country mile.

surely thats an oximoron, u.s. + intelligence
not a 1 liner

Originally posted by ninthaxis I am not saying they don't have evidence, but they should tread lightly when it comes to Iran and anything nuclear.

At this point I really don't care if Iran has the bomb or not. If they do, it's only part of that time-honoured peace-keeping device called Mutually Assured Destruction. I'm more concerned about that nest of wackadoo fundamentalists and tin-pot generals in Pakistan with their fingers close to the button. Oh, wait...they're our allies. Wait...are they? Which way is the wind blowing today? I'd better check Faux News.

Great moments in CIA/NSA/OSS Hstory

Saddam has WMD's
What nuclear detonation in India?
What nuclear detonation in Pakistan?
The hijacked planes flew into what?
Powers flight plan it totally safe Ike
Bay of Carnitas? Nah change it to Bay of Pigs and greenlight it.


Etc etc etc etc. This administration has ZERO credibility when it comes to making these claims.