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31,573 Alien Civilizations in our Galaxy

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posted on Oct, 22 2008 @ 11:53 AM
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Originally posted by Nohup
Therefore, given all of the available data known at the moment, the number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy = 1. The number of planets with life on them = 1.


You are exactly right.

However, given the past similarities Mars has had with Earth and the recent "discovery" of it's polar caps, I'm confident that, in time, we'll discover that Mars once hosted life. Maybe on the the smallest scale imaginable - possibly a mirco-organism, but life non the less.

But with that discovery, the calculations for intelligent life in our Universe, or even our Galaxy, will increase by 1,000 fold, if not more.

[edit on 22-10-2008 by tyranny22]




posted on Oct, 22 2008 @ 12:01 PM
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An interesting debate, I like the numbers.

Some speculate using specific math theories while others want to stick to proof and verification.

Which brings me to an alternative answer. If we use Earth as our only example of proof of life in the galaxy, meaning that we can only use what we can truly prove, physically verify.

We must then conclude that life exist on 100% of the planets as we have only physically verified the one planet.

If we speculate then we must be consistent with our speculations, if we are to walk the path of absolute proof then we must be consistent about proof as well.

Just my thoughts on the process, I actually subscribe to the 144,000 planets have intelligent life per galaxy. Or perhaps I should say intelligent life originated on 144,000 planets per galaxy.



posted on Oct, 22 2008 @ 12:20 PM
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reply to post by eaganthorn
 

144k!??? wow you win optimist of the year award. Not even the folks over at seti thinks theres that many!

If theres that many civs why isnt our solar system filled with thousands of alien probes checking things out? why are there no alien satellites orbiting earth. We will soon send things like that to other solar systems yet ours is completely empty.

That doesnt tally with having 144k civs in the galaxy.



posted on Oct, 22 2008 @ 12:35 PM
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I was sure this thread was a debate on whether or not life exists on another planet. What are observe50 and mystiq doing here, they are declaring alien life is here. Don't MODs regulate the conversation in this thread. They are going way off topic and declaring thier fantasies as fact without providng data of any sort to back up thier stories. They are butting thier way into an intelligent coversation with fairy tales and such.

[edit on 22-10-2008 by riggs2099]



posted on Oct, 22 2008 @ 12:47 PM
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reply to post by yeti101
 

I win, really, is there cash with this?

Who says there aren’t any alien probes around, do you know what they look like?

Do you know their language, any alien language? Would you know a probe if it flew up to you, landed on your arm and took a sample of your blood?

It has been suggested that an efficient way to explore the universe is to send out many small self replicating probes, potentially of bio formation to investigate the universe and send back information on other life forms if and when discovered.

Research types 1, types 2 and types 3, galactic civilizations and you'll get what I mean.

(but i did pull the number 144,000 out of the air, i just like the sound of it and it's just as good as a guess as any other number, but don't tell anyone)



posted on Oct, 22 2008 @ 12:53 PM
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reply to post by eaganthorn
 



Who says there aren’t any alien probes around, do you know what they look like? .......small probes etc


this is a possibility. But then you would need all civilizations to only do this. When we send our first inter stellar probes they wont be nanobots they will likely be normal sized things maybe even with huge solar sails kilometeres in diameter.

your saying that none of you 144k civs would reach a human like level of tech and send out probes. Self replicating nanoprobes are the best way but are highly unlikely to be the first way probes are sent to other star systems.

unless you think humans are unique out of that 144k and "they" are all exactly the same?

[edit on 22-10-2008 by yeti101]



posted on Oct, 22 2008 @ 01:00 PM
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riggs, I was only responding to the post you wrote with my name and to answer you but you are right and after this post I leave this thread.

31,000+ isn't even close but what do I know and riggs the fantasy is yours I know what is here, there and everywhere.... maybe you will one day too!


My best to all and with that I leave the thread.



posted on Oct, 22 2008 @ 01:20 PM
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off-topic post removed to prevent thread-drift


 



posted on Oct, 22 2008 @ 01:23 PM
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Originally posted by yeti101
But then you would need all civilizations to only do this. When we send our first inter stellar probes they wont be nanobots they will likely be normal sized things maybe even with huge solar sails kilometeres in diameter.


I would have to doubt that everyone evolves at the same rate but even if all 144,000 planets did send out primitive probes at first, space is still so vast that we wouldn’t have the ability locate any of them. We would need to know the form of communication, the specific frequencies, be in direct line of communication between it and the host world, yada, yada. Heck we can’t even locate all of the satellites or debris in orbit of our planet that we’ve put up, other countries have put up, etc. We still have a long way to go in techno-advances.

Perhaps in another 50 years we can send out nanobots.

I remember someone explaining the vastness of space by comparing our planet to a grain of sand and our galaxy as all the beaches of the world combined. Suddenly 144,000 planets doesn’t seem like that many.



posted on Oct, 22 2008 @ 02:38 PM
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mopusvindictus, I basically agree with all your views, I love the energy coming from your words, its infectious, your logical arguements mirror my own.



posted on Oct, 22 2008 @ 05:03 PM
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watch this and ask yourself, how big does intelligent life have to be?



posted on Oct, 22 2008 @ 06:00 PM
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Originally posted by grey580
reply to post by Nohup
 


ahh.. but can you prove your answer?
That's a slippery slope. And if you slip you'll look very funny sliding down that slope.
Personally I like to say. It's possible that there's aliens out there. But we won't know till me meet one.


Well if you're playing on a slide you shouldn't really be here. The disclaimer requires yo to be over the age of 13?



posted on Oct, 23 2008 @ 12:48 AM
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Originally posted by Nohup

Originally posted by Wolf321
Yet so many people still think that the mere idea of aliens is laughable. I think if as a whole, we would acknowledge the probability alone, great things could happen.


There's no way to accurately determine the probability of other life (or civilizations) in this galaxy because we know of only one planet with life on it - Earth - and no clue as to how life got here.

Therefore, given all of the available data known at the moment, the number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy = 1. The number of planets with life on them = 1.

[edit on 20-10-2008 by Nohup]




Well that sums that up. And here on this planet 30,000 civilizations is an aweful lot of history. What happens when civilizations reach a point of surviving thousands of years?


Do these advanced people just go gray?



posted on Oct, 23 2008 @ 11:26 PM
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www.arxivblog.com... says:

"And the number of intelligent civilisations in our galaxy is…

31573.52"


What exactly would make up .52 of a civilization?



posted on Oct, 23 2008 @ 11:46 PM
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How can a species which lives in only the simple understanding of its own world and its own dimension be assuming life doesnt exist in the fifty something theoretical dimensions and across the span of the Universe.

We might not even be the only intelligent life in this space and time, we lack the brains or the understanding to determine anything else.



posted on Oct, 24 2008 @ 12:03 AM
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not sure if its been said in previous post (too lazy to read them all)

But as far as we know ,we do not know the exact size of space as far as we know space is endless ,it has no end.

With that in mind you could say that there are 1 billion planets in the entire space ,you could say there are 5 trillion planets ,in fact any number you come up with may actually be a very small number, but thats if space is suppose to be limitless.

it could be that there is an exact amount of planets ,but then you would have trillions of km's of empty space, again thats if in fact space is endless.

so there may also be an unlimited amount of civilisations



posted on Oct, 24 2008 @ 12:08 AM
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reply to post by typenicknamehere
 


There are also in theory over 54 dimensions. Speaking scientifically, "thats a lot of nuts".


[edit on 24-10-2008 by silver6ix]



posted on Oct, 24 2008 @ 12:36 AM
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It would be interesting to take the OP's idea of 31,573 Alien Civilazations and assume that we are one as well, so that would make 31,574....

Now....the mathematics are certainly solid....but mathematics cannot account for all variables.

Here are a few variables:

The Galaxy is about 100,000 Light Years in diameter, and about 30,000 LY thick at the Center. However, the proximity and likely radiation density anywhere within the Center is anathema to the possiblity of life developing, according to current standards and understanding of life, based on our experiences here on Earth.

But, given that WE live in the outskirts, or, 'suburbs', and are thriving on this planet....and GIVEN that the Galaxy is VERY large, there's a great potential for other intelligent species to exist.

Now, we have to examine another aspect of how Galaxies form....

Actually, there are 'models' of how Galaxies form....not yet well understood. For instance, we reside in what is known as a 'Spiral Galaxy'...there are also 'Globular Galaxies'....it seems to have something to do with the rotational velocity of whatever 'seeded' our current Galaxy.

Regardless....NOW we must discuss the early Stars....the early Universe was mostly just Hydrogen and Helium...the rest of the Elements needed to be formed through multiple novae....gigantic explosions of Stars blowing up and forming ever heavier elements....this went on for BILLIONS of our 'years' before any life ever formed.

Well, this went on, even as the Universe expanded....and eventually, the Earth was formed, as part of the Solar System....and THIS about 4 BILLION years ago, since we measure years as we do.

Now....back to possible civilizations, right now!!

One thousand 'years', if you look back, shows quite a difference here on Earth, between our 'tech' then and our 'tech' now.

Who's to say that every OTHER civilization, on other planets outside our Solar System, is at the same technological level as we are?

A planet that is, say....just for example....20 LY away could be 1,000 years AHEAD of us in technological development....or 1,000 years behind us.....depends.

Also remember that a 'year' or a 'month' or a 'week' means absolutely nothing to a people on a planet that is 20 LY away from Earth, if they exist.

In order to have a proper 'First Contact' units of time and distance measurement would have to be understood....despite the language barrier, which would have to be fixed first!!!



posted on Oct, 24 2008 @ 02:55 AM
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The results of simulations like this are no better than than the assumptions you make in developing them. And these, of course, are based on our manifestly imperfect but rapidly improving knowledge of the heavens.(From the OP's link)


I would say absolutely imperfect! It's a sure loony way of calculating the number of civilizations in the universe. How can any model give an almost exact number? What was the computer program used? Garbage in, garbage out!

Now here's another way of visualizing the number of alien civilizations:

The Universe


The Universe is so huge in fact that we’ll have to play around with scales so one can get a better idea.

Let's imagine that the entire universe that we have seen in all the worlds telescopes, all the galaxies, all trillion of them, extending out 13 billion light years in every direction is shrunk down to the size of a golf ball.

If we do a volume calculation, the actual universe contains 10 to the power 60 of those golf balls! Wow, I guess we didn't shrink things down far enough, but this will have to do. So how big a volume would 10 to the power 60 golf balls fill up? Try a sphere 850 light years across! So imagine a mass of golf balls that big, and each one of those golf balls contains all the stars and galaxies that we can see through our telescopes!!
Link


Intelligent Life in the Universe

Now in all this lets see if there’s any intelligent life in this huge universe…


For arguments sake, lets imagine that primitive life happens once in the lifetime of a trillion galaxies, and out of those only one in a trillion ever evolves out of its womb planet into a space-faring civilization. In this example then we are still left with an astounding 10 to the par 75 advanced societies - more alien cultures than the number of atoms composing planet Earth!

Again, for some perspective on such a gargantuan number, there are more advanced civilizations partying it up around the galaxies than there are atoms in every single grain of sand on all the beaches and deserts in the world, and then some.

Link


So now we have a universe that could be teeming with millions of technologically advanced civilizations, and not just 37964.97!!

Cheers!


[edit on 24-10-2008 by mikesingh]



posted on Oct, 24 2008 @ 03:19 AM
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Its fine to say 'for the sake of argument, lets assume something happens X times over Y timeframe', and expand the time frame out to huge timescales to get impressive numbers.

But we cant assume something will happen X times, because so far we have X happening once over all of time and nothing to indicate it ever happened again.

Taking the probabilities route isnt helpful when you have a sample size of 1.

If youve got a die, with an unknown number of sides, you roll it once, and get a 7, you have no way to predict how many more times a 7 could turn up.

About the only thing probability helps us with in this case is generalities.
At the moment, with a sample size of 1, the probability of other life is indeterminable. If we find life on mars, then we can start to assume the probability is really quite high.




BTW, for what its worth, im all aboard the 'it cant just be us' train. I just also happen to be on the 'this is a case where formulas and probability are useless' train.
Logic might dictate more life, but maths cant, no matter how much you fiddle with it.



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