Real predictions!! dow will fall to 2300!!! proof also available.

reply to post by KaginD

Good thread post. I am amazed of the ignorance of some people that could compare this objective market/economic prediction/forecast to Blossom Goodchild. How unaware and clueless can they be?

This guys predictions are probably close to accurate, as many respected economists, financial heads, and Investors are stating similar outcomes. I beleive this youtube guy is listening to the guru's who have accurately been forecasting the market and economy for some time now. For any interested in listening to those who have been accurately predicting the market/economy I suggest looking them up, here some are:

Nouriel Roubini
Jim Rogers
Gerald Celente
Bob Chapman
Max Keiser
Joseph Stiglitz
Webster Tarpley
etc.
etc.

Originally posted by InterestedObserver
Well he was wrong about gas, we're seeing $2.40 here in San Antonio, and I hear the price is dropping elsewhere. He couldn't predict that when demand goes down price goes down?

True - so far, as well as gold - so far.

Key in on his point about hyperinflation. The US has a long track record of inflating themselves out of economic problems every time it hits the sh#'er for them.

Also key in on the fact that as of today all commodity prices are priced in USD's$.

==

Hyperinflation? So I ask myself how that is going to happen. On the one hand interest rates are in the circa 1-2% range so the Fed can't create massive inflation by lowering interest rates significantly below the underlying inflation rate to "engineer" significant inflation like they did to inflate their way out of the oil price shocks in the 1970's.

So how would it happen? The only way is through a significant decline in the USD$.

HOW would they engineer this? Default or delay payment on certain forms of government debt.

JK's 2 bits.

Originally posted by InterestedObserver
Well he was wrong about gas, we're seeing $2.40 here in San Antonio, and I hear the price is dropping elsewhere. He couldn't predict that when demand goes down price goes down?

This isn't necessarily comforting. Such a quick decrease in demand that isn't driven by consumer decision but by consumer default is far more scary than anything the DOW 30 can show you. This show's the beginning of something far more horrific; deflation.

Forget the DOW, people put so much emphasis on the DOW, when the DOW is predominantly banking in the first place. Seriously, how many of you cared about the DOW and it's components a year ago? I would venture to say relatively few.

You want to worry about something, DO worry about deflation, that is what will kill us, not flatlining of the DOW.

While this guy in the videos is probably right on about what he is saying, sincerely there have been many others also who have not only been saying it for months, but for years. In fact, a good friend of Bill Fleckenstein who is a money column writer for MSN has an acquaintance from Australia. His name is Das, he has been foretelling of this for years. Das is probably one of the fore most authorities on the Derivative markets in the world, he has said time and time again that it all can't last; maybe people should have listened when it could have made a difference.

Also many writers in China and Japan have been saying this for at least 4 to 5 years now, I guess no one listened to them either, or turned a blind eye. At any rate, we, to a very large degree, deserve what's happening now, and like Rockpuck said, what could be a very dark time.

Don't discount the guy in this video though, simply because he isn't a clone of Paulson and Kashkari though...he definitely has quite a bit of merit.

AB1

I look at the price of oil today closing under $75 a barrel and I notice how far we've come in just three months, when the price was at almost $150 a barrel and everyone from the pundits to the analysts to OPEC was predicting $200 oil, or $300 oil in the near future.

In the wake of such colossal and universal misjudgment about oil prices and runaway economic growth from India to China, might we now be overshooting in our dire predictions of where the global economy is heading?

Sure, we're in a recession now. But will it really be as bad as everybody is now collectively predicting?
After all, when's the last time anybody remembers the world's central banks pumping $2 trillion into the global economy and the financial system?
We don't know what the impact of that financial equivalent of the "surge" will be because we've never seen it before. We do know that third-quarter earnings didn't fall off the face of the earth. Some companies in the consumer sector and even in technology are still reporting pretty good numbers,

Cheer up my friends...the sky is not falling.....think of 3 things you are grateful for today.
Now if my computor freezes up THEN i'd be pissed.

reply to post by leo123


Monetary inflation is created by the excess of debt creation over debt repayment. It can also be created by printing money. That is why we have seen so much inflation over the last 100 years. It is quite possible that we could create hyperinflation and as the supply of dollars increased, they would get less worthy relative to other currencies and relative to relatively fixed commodities like gold and oil. Given our massive debts (particularly medicare, medicaid and social security), we probably have no way out but to default (not politically possible) or inflate. With the latter course of action, we pay back our obligations but with relatively worthless dollars. If you want to learn more about inflation and the money supply, I suggest you visit www.paulvaneeden.com.

Originally posted by GhostR1der
reply to post by bruxfain

 

It's because as we are already seeing.. it only takes a small part of the big fake puzzle to break and it trips the rest up.

When people have no houses and no jobs, who will look after the oil wells? Highways? Airports? That's the problem.

Its not a problem, the houses still exist and looking after the oil wells, highways and airports is the job. For his scenario to be plausible something that is here now has to be absent in the future. Is there a natural disaster on the horizon, a plague...what? It has got to be something. The market does not just go up and down, without something REAL to justify it. This video could at best hope to increase uncertainty moderately and maybe put some downward pressure on stocks.

But what is it? He never says what will happen to send the Dow to this ridiculously low level. Not even the most pessimistic investors could just sit back and possibly miss out on buying opportunities of a lifetime because of rumors.

A collapse in growth, is the fed going to have to raise rates really high, are entire markets going to vanish. Which ones and where and when? He provides not one answer, his whole understanding is just pop conspiracy street slang. Nothing of substance. But he does possess a skill; he was able to record the video and post it on the internet. He even kept a straight face.

This so-called housing crisis is not as profound as you may think 1/500 homeowners per month with foreclosure notices. The majority of Americans did not participate and are not a part of the housing bubble. Contagion is possible but the government has made it a policy to contain it and individual households are taking steps to dampen the impact on their personal finances.

The video is just enemy propaganda. His conclusions are not even reasonable. It's not effective nor scary. Its a low quality production, his analysis of the economy is poor and understanding of the most complex economy in the world incomplete.

I'd give this a D- and the only reason I'd give him that high a grade is because I wouldn't want to risk seeing him in my class again.

[edit on 20-10-2008 by bruxfain]

reply to post by TXMACHINEGUNDLR


totally agree, looking at how this sh$%t hits the fan and it is coming from an institution that for so many years been telling us, " we will protect you and your family in case anything happens to you" is the one that is screwing all of us up..can i trust any insurance company now? well skeptical i would say..

not much we can do about it...they can take our monies, but they can't take our faith...since we have lost the faith in them..

so by looking at this, martial law isn't that impossible i would say

The DOW will not hit 2300 points. I don't think many people here know just how low that is. I am not saying things aren't bad, but we won't all die and the sky will not fall. We will get up tomorrow. And in a few years from now investors will be riding yet another boom, another bubble. When it pops, it pops. There have been many such occurrences.

I truly think many people on ATS keep their minds so opened that their brains fall out.

[edit on 20-10-2008 by RetinoidReceptor]

Originally posted by leo123
The proof will only come once it has happened.

Then the thread title is misleading....

Originally posted by Rockpuck

Ironic.. a season of joy, family, food, closeness and celebration.. a season of sacrifice and love .. decides the fate of our economy.

I guess this is God's ironic way of chastising us for bastardizing it.

So one more year of illusion hinges on Christmas, wouldn't have it any other way!

You definitely made me smile with that analogy. I'm still going to buy a few things for my kids even though it's been a rough year.

Where will this story that is America go from here? Down the same road we've been on for 40 years, or will someone stand up and lead us, really lead us by setting the example that is true.

God Bless Us All

F & S for sure; I have seen this coming also for quite some time. The tail will probably wag the dog in Iran soon.

Presidential directive 51 attached to Homeland Insecurity last year states that the president can declare any emergency to suspend elections and make Bush virtual dictator. Martial law is next.

Chips,anyone?

reply to post by Brothers


You won't need a draft when so many young men will have no job and will jump at a military career.

Get your head out of the sand,man.

Originally posted by KaginD
Not to bump my own thread.. But no one sees this as important??

I hope someone will watch this and get something out of it, I did..

I believe this might shed some light on what could cause the
stock market to tank much more than it present drops.

$516 Trillion USD derivatives meltdown soon

You got to love the fact that these "creative accountants" with
enron like skills take bad debt, and turn it into an investment so
they can in turn list a debt as an asset on their books.

It makes me think Thieves in nice clothes do no time.

If and when this monster unloads no amount of paper games
are gonna make a big enough band aid to keep the economy
from flatlining.

I am making some basic survival moves that don't cost much,
and I suggest most ppl do likewise.

Good Luck to you all !

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
The DOW will not hit 2300 points. I don't think many people here know just how low that is. I am not saying things aren't bad, but we won't all die and the sky will not fall. We will get up tomorrow. And in a few years from now investors will be riding yet another boom, another bubble. When it pops, it pops. There have been many such occurrences.

I truly think many people on ATS keep their minds so opened that their brains fall out.

[edit on 20-10-2008 by RetinoidReceptor]

Under normal circumstances the Dow would not hit 2,300 but
we have a little suprise coming here in the next few days or weeks
called the Derivatives Nightmare.

One conservative estimate puts this Black Hole at near $516 Trillion.

Yeah, that is Trillion with a "T".

Read and weep, and know that 2,300 is not likely, but possible
with the enron like shell games that have been played with
more bad debt than ppl can imagine.

$516 Trillion USD derivatives nightmare soon to unfold

I think it has the potential to dwarf the current crisis.

I think this could be the collapse of the banking system.

I think they may suspend trading before it falls to 2,300.

Good Luck to you all !

Originally posted by bruxfain

Originally posted by GhostR1der
reply to post by bruxfain

 

It's because as we are already seeing.. it only takes a small part of the big fake puzzle to break and it trips the rest up.

When people have no houses and no jobs, who will look after the oil wells? Highways? Airports? That's the problem.

Its not a problem, the houses still exist and looking after the oil wells, highways and airports is the job. For his scenario to be plausible something that is here now has to be absent in the future. Is there a natural disaster on the horizon, a plague...what? It has got to be something. The market does not just go up and down, without something REAL to justify it. This video could at best hope to increase uncertainty moderately and maybe put some downward pressure on stocks.

But what is it? He never says what will happen to send the Dow to this ridiculously low level. Not even the most pessimistic investors could just sit back and possibly miss out on buying opportunities of a lifetime because of rumors.

A collapse in growth, is the fed going to have to raise rates really high, are entire markets going to vanish. Which ones and where and when? He provides not one answer, his whole understanding is just pop conspiracy street slang. Nothing of substance. But he does possess a skill; he was able to record the video and post it on the internet. He even kept a straight face.

This so-called housing crisis is not as profound as you may think 1/500 homeowners per month with foreclosure notices. The majority of Americans did not participate and are not a part of the housing bubble. Contagion is possible but the government has made it a policy to contain it and individual households are taking steps to dampen the impact on their personal finances.

The video is just enemy propaganda. His conclusions are not even reasonable. It's not effective nor scary. Its a low quality production, his analysis of the economy is poor and understanding of the most complex economy in the world incomplete.

I'd give this a D- and the only reason I'd give him that high a grade is because I wouldn't want to risk seeing him in my class again.

[edit on 20-10-2008 by bruxfain]

Well you got some things right, but you do not have all the
information that is available perhaps.

$516 Trillion USD derivatives bomb set to blow

When that little financial nuke goes off, you can bet it will have
much more impact than what we have seen so far.

Prepare accordingly, I sure have.

Good Luck !

Originally posted by alphabetaone

Originally posted by InterestedObserver
Well he was wrong about gas, we're seeing $2.40 here in San Antonio, and I hear the price is dropping elsewhere. He couldn't predict that when demand goes down price goes down?

This isn't necessarily comforting. Such a quick decrease in demand that isn't driven by consumer decision but by consumer default is far more scary than anything the DOW 30 can show you. This show's the beginning of something far more horrific; deflation.

Forget the DOW, people put so much emphasis on the DOW, when the DOW is predominantly banking in the first place. Seriously, how many of you cared about the DOW and it's components a year ago? I would venture to say relatively few.

You want to worry about something, DO worry about deflation, that is what will kill us, not flatlining of the DOW.

While this guy in the videos is probably right on about what he is saying, sincerely there have been many others also who have not only been saying it for months, but for years. In fact, a good friend of Bill Fleckenstein who is a money column writer for MSN has an acquaintance from Australia. His name is Das, he has been foretelling of this for years. Das is probably one of the fore most authorities on the Derivative markets in the world, he has said time and time again that it all can't last; maybe people should have listened when it could have made a difference.

Also many writers in China and Japan have been saying this for at least 4 to 5 years now, I guess no one listened to them either, or turned a blind eye. At any rate, we, to a very large degree, deserve what's happening now, and like Rockpuck said, what could be a very dark time.

Don't discount the guy in this video though, simply because he isn't a clone of Paulson and Kashkari though...he definitely has quite a bit of merit.

AB1

The man talking about the derivatives problem was spot on.

$516 Trillion USD derivatives bomb set to blow

When it goes you better be able to live off the land, and be
ready for civil unrest and some hard times.

Things are about to change radically in a short span of time.

Good Luck to you all !

Originally posted by KaginD
reply to post by N. Tesla

 

The first video was from March of 2008. He predicted that the Dow would fall to around the 8000 point marker by September. He also said the S&P would see the 800's. He said all of this 6 months before it happened and even went as far as saying what the value of the Dow would be. Thats proof that he knows what he is talking about IMO. Its not every day you hear someone call something that dead on.

But that's the problem. Videos can be faked with a false timestamp so easily. Anyone can come along after the fact and present a faked video stating "see I made the prediction months ago".

The video may well be genuine but the method presentation means it has to be treated with full skepticism.

Also note that there will be hundreds of video predictions out there that at least one of them is bound to cover what actually happened by sheer chance alone. So the proof of his ability is the predictions from this point on.

So there is proof of faked YouTube video dates? Of course someone has the rights to change the data, but I believe in the information presented until proven otherwise.

Originally posted by bruxfain
When I was in school I was to be one of those people who studied my lessons, did my homework and performed well on tests. I always wondered what happened to the classmates of mine who blew off their lessons, didn't do homework, cheated on tests to pass and ultimately didn't finish much school past high school.

Now I realize that they make videos like the one, I just watched. He touched on all the hot talking points...weak currencies, inflated housing prices, unsustainable consumer-slave based economic systems, psychological impact of economic depression, etc. but nothing of real substance.

He never once commented on agricultural output or processing, transportation or communications. Was there a drought, are crops failing, is livestock being destroyed? Are all of our highways gone, our airports, our seaports, our railroads? Have our cities disappeared? Has the oil been used up? Did our work force disappear or lose all of their skills? Are babies still being born? Is something wrong with our public utilities? Do men and women still enjoy one another? Surely something must happen in these areas FIRST. He only mentioned the housing market because the housing market is the only place there might be a problem.

He only talks about abstractions such as financial markets as if they were real life as opposed to just a reflection of real life as they are.

Financial markets are easily susceptible to every perversion of the human mind and the only thing that a declining or rising market is a true measure of, especially in the present time, is the depravity of people who actively participate in them.

I think that at no time in history has the Dow been as worthless a barometer of the human condition as it is today. And people like the one who made this video are really doing everything they can to infect the REAL WORLD.

The only thing that will probably be completely and unapologetically destroyed in this current upheaval is these markets. The News will stop reporting the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, as they mean nothing and are contributing to the problem in our society and others. This is where the wealth of nations is arbitraged and hedged away. That's my prediction.

wow, you must really think highly of yourself to be able to talk down to people the way you do. so your whole theory comes down to, "the depravity of people who actively participate in them". so if the economy is bad then its the peoples fault for observing the downward slope? you ever think about inflation? you ever think about national debt coming back to biting us in the rear? there are alot of reasons as to why the economy is bad. yours being probably the worst theorys ive read so far. since you are in the business of grading people ill grade your posts, f- to you sir for lack of logic and basic reasoning skills.

reply to post by bruxfain


I'm not saying I ncesasrily agree with the video, I have my opinions but they're totally inconsequential and I may not agree with you but I very well may agree with you, it doesn't matter. But you're opinion is so anti-that guy that I have to ask...

What if you're wrong and he's right? Then what do you do?