posted on Oct, 17 2008 @ 12:20 PM
This is the final stretch of the campaign as the candidates do last minute campaigning and shore up their bases. This is what both of the candidates
need to do for them to win come November 4.
1. Complacency has been a problem in the past for those leading in the polls. Sen Obama has to ensure his supporters get out and vote. The polls show
him leading, and many may decide not to vote because "He has already won it".
2. The youth vote. Senior citizen turnout is always extremely high, along with conservative voters. Younger voters stay home and play video games.
John Kerry was expecting to win with the young voters in 2004, but they stayed home and George Bush cruised to victory. This will cost Sen Obama the
election if the younger voters stay home. His problem is making sure they vote this time instead of promising to vote and staying home. The youth vote
is always the lowest amount of turnout.
3. Going after the rural vote. Sen Obama is actually going to West Virginia and Kentucky in the white rural areas. These voters were overwhelmingly
for Sen Clinton, and Sen Obama needs to get much more of their support. He may not be able to rely on the younger vote, as they have shown they do not
vote. He will need at least 40% of the white vote to win if the same turnout as last election cycle, and that will be very difficult for his
The Obama campaign has many more offices and volunteers this time, and hope to get the younger people out to vote. Younger volunteers help, and this
may finally increase the votes he needs to win. Going to the rural areas shows he cares and is willing to visit "enemy" territory. This may get him
some votes he may not have gotten, or votes from people who may not have voted at all.
1. He has to make sure his base gets out and votes. They have the highest turnout rate behind the seniors (who will overwhelmingly support him). He
has been trying to woo the independent voters, but he has to make sure his base doesn't stay home thinking he has already lost.
2. The undecided voters usually vote for the Republican candidate by 3 to 1, so that will be in Sen McCain's favor. It is hard to tell who is
undecided as some people may not tell who they are voting for in the elections. I base this number on past elections, and the voters usually went for
the incumbent or Republican. The truly independent voters seem to be favoring Sen Obama, but Sen McCain can still try his maverick status.
3. Minority voters. It seems everyone is talking about the white vote and Sen Obama, but no one is talking about the minority voters and the
Republicans. In 2004, George Bush got 45% of the Hispanic vote ensuring his win. John McCain is polling around 30% of this growing population. There
have not been many attempts to increase his support in that or other minority votes. As the white voters will decrease even more every four years, the
Republican Party needs to recruit more into their ranks. President Bush has had many African Americans in high ranking positions, and that has helped
the Republicans. There still needs to be more recruiting efforts to ensure the Republicans stay healthy.
John McCain should use his underdog status to his advantage. Many people support the underdog, and it could lead to more votes from the undecideds out
there. Getting the party base and senior vote should be the priority, and Sen McCain can still pull out a victory.