The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by Vitchilo

Game over before Christmas? Please please please!

Why raze everything to the ground when you can do that AND leave a hole several miles deep? —

European shares fell on Wednesday after the large take up rate by banks for cheap European Central Bank loans worried investors about the banks' funding needs and raised doubts they would use the money to buy the region's peripheral debt.

Demand for the ECB tender was way above the 310 billion euros expected by traders polled by Reuters, with traders saying it highlighted the pressure banks are under, making it unlikely they would use it to buy more of the region's risky debt.

"The take up rate was higher than expected and it is not good if the banking sector requires that amount of funding," said Angus Campbell, head of sales, Capital Spreads. "It raises serious questions about the stability of the banking sector."

"The problem is there is a major risk with banks buying the region's peripheral debt. If the economies in Spain and Italy can't grow next year, all of a sudden European banks are in a bigger hole than were before."

Source: Reuters

It all makes sense, to somebody:

Surprise, surprise: the banks understand economics better than Mr Sarkozy:

Exclusive: Italian banks tap 116 billion euros of ECB loans

More than a dozen Italian banks... tapped 116 billion euros ($143.52 billion) of new three-year loans offered by the European Central Bank, nearly a quarter of the total, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters...

...The ECB's first ever offer of three-year loans on Wednesday drew demand for a massive 489 billion euros from 523 banks, raising hopes a credit crunch can be avoided and that the money could be used to buy Italian and Spanish bonds...

...UniCredit and the Italian banking association poured cold water on the idea that the fresh and cheap ECB liquidity would prompt banks to buy more government debt.

"I am convinced that liquidity should support the real economy and thus avoid a credit crunch," UniCredit CEO Federico Ghizzoni said in a radio interview on Wednesday.

And in deference to GoalPoster's post about where the ECB's rules come into this:

...Banking lobby ABI, which has strongly criticised the European Banking Authority for forcing Italian banks to mark-to-market their domestic government bond holdings, was scathing.

"The EBA rules are a deterrent for buying sovereign bonds, so not even the ECB's important liquidity injection -- of almost 500 billion euros -- can be used to support sovereign debt," ABI director general Giovanni Sabatini told reporters.

"The EBA created this problem: the new toxic assets are sovereign bonds, in the eyes of the market. Banks not only will not increase their exposure, but they will probably cut it, and this creates a potential problem for refinancing sovereign debt."

Source article

You can say that again.

Any more fantastic suggestions, Mr Sarkozy?

What happen to the markets!? I went to bed last night and all European markets were strongly in green and US futures open pointing to same, and now they are all in the red? What the? With all the apparent "good news" and ECB bank loans I expected to awake to another euphoric driven rally.

No biggie but Hungary was cut to junk by SP... which Moody had already done.

S&P Joins Moody's In Downgrading Hungary To Junk, Outlook Negative - Full Note

And what's funny... they have a negative outlook...

reply to post by surrealist

That's because the ECB plan is total crap and leverages the whole system even more, making it even more dangerous.

reply to post by surrealist

What happen to the markets!?.. With all the apparent "good news" and ECB bank loans I expected to awake to another euphoric driven rally.

Quoted above:

"The take up rate was higher than expected and it is not good if the banking sector requires that amount of funding," said Angus Campbell, head of sales, Capital Spreads. "It raises serious questions about the stability of the banking sector."

Positive sentiment was replaced by serious analysis.

Latest debt numbers :
Debt for fiscal year starting October 1 2011 till December 20 2011 : 341.63 billion or 4.27 billion/day ($13.78/day/citizen) or ($1.558 trillion deficit)
Debt for calendar year 2011 till December 20 : 1.134 trillion or 3.20 billion/day ($10.33/day/citizen) ($1.168 trillion deficit)
Current debt as of December 20 : 15.131 trillion
Current debt ceiling : 14.694 trillion (first phase) 15.194 trillion (second phase) 16.694 trillion (final phase)

At the current average rate of 3.74 billion in new debt/day (or about $12.06 in new debt per day for every citizen in America...and that is just federal) it will take about 17 days before reaching the second phase of the debt ceiling hike, so around January 8, 2012...

US GDP : 15.18 trillion Q3 2011 (to be revised down to about 15 trillion due to housing market fraud revision)
US debt : 15.131 trillion

Total debt to GDP ratio : 100.008%

Yay... finally GDP/debt ratio over 100%... game over.

Originally posted by Vitchilo

reply to post by surrealist

 

That's because the ECB plan is total crap and leverages the whole system even more, making it even more dangerous

And so the markets are seeing through the BS. Finally they too are starting to wake up!

reply to post by surrealist


Well if only the damn rating agencies would man up and downgrade the US, UK, France, Germany and Japan to their true value (junk) it would be nice...

Had to re-do the calculation for the debt...

Debt for fiscal year starting October 1 2011 till January 3 2012 : 392.42 billion or 4.17 billion/day ($13.46/day/citizen) or ($1.522 trillion deficit)
Debt for calendar year 2011 till January 3 2012 : 1.184 trillion or 3.22 billion/day ($10.39/day/citizen) ($1.175 trillion deficit)
Current debt as of January 3 2012 : 15.182 trillion
Current debt ceiling : 14.694 trillion (first phase) 15.194 trillion (second phase) 16.694 trillion (final phase)

At the current average rate of 3.7 billion in new debt/day (or about $11.92 in new debt per day for every citizen in America...and that is just federal) it will take about 3 days before reaching the second phase of the debt ceiling hike, so around January 6, 2012... And reach the final debt ceiling on February 15 2013.

US GDP : 15.18 trillion Q3 2011 (to be revised down to about 15 trillion due to housing market fraud revision)
US debt : 15.182 trillion

Total debt to GDP ratio : 101.21%

Well good news, the deficits are slowing down...

Latest :

Eurozone crisis: Fitch threatens to cut America's AAA rating

Fitch's warning that it might downgrade America's AAA rating in 2013 is the latest sign that the debt situation in America is a "slow moving train wreck", warned Jason Brady, a managing director at Thornburg Investment Management

2013! Pussies. Do it NOW.

reply to post by Vitchilo


Am I the only one who doesn't expect those figures to make the slightest difference next time the debt ceiling comes up for discussion?

Other options:

Austerity: too late / too unpopular

War: (It worked for Hitler.)

Universal impoverishment: too unpopular

Massive increases in productivity (-i.e. hard work): too unpopular

Replace the fossil fuel economy with something more environmentally-friendly: too popular


Merry Christmas

reply to post by pause4thought


No you're not the only one...

Anyway at least the increase in debt has been slowing down since the republicans have been in the house...

2008 deficit : 1.47 trillion (10.28% of GDP)
2009 deficit : 1.683 trillion (12.07% of GDP)
2010 deficit : 1.73 trillion (11.91% of GDP)
2011 deficit : 1.148 trillion (7.7% of GDP)

Not defending the republicans, but at least the ``tea parties`` have done SOMETHING... not by a long shot enough, but still.

Rating agencies should be nationalized

www.cbsnews.com...

Ron Paul: The new teflon candidate?

(The New Republic) Nearly four years ago, on the eve of the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, The New Republic published my expose of newsletters published by Texas Congressman Ron Paul. The contents of these newsletters can best be described as appalling. Blacks were referred to as “animals.” Gays were told to go “back” into the “closet.” The “X-Rated Martin Luther King” was a bisexual pedophile who “seduced underage girls and boys.” Three months before the Oklahoma City bombing, Paul praised right-wing, anti-government militia movements as “one of the most encouraging developments in America.” The voluminous record of bigotry and conspiracy theories speaks for itself.

Any comments on this?

Originally posted by DangerDeath
Rating agencies should be nationalized

Don't you worry, they have been thinking about it and might do it once they man up and downgrade France and Germany.

Hell the US basically did that when they kicked out the CEO of S&P the day after he downgraded the US.

A nice brake down of why the EU bailouts will not work and why I keep saying that is nothing but putting more debt on already on going debt, just to be able to meet the financial commitments of selling the debt

1.Despite the fact that today's $638.5 billion (489 billion euros) injection accounts for a mere $252 billion (193 billion euros) of new money into the system. There are $386.5 billion (296 billion euros) in maturing loans already accounted for.

2.There are $300 billion (230 billion euros) of bank bonds maturing in the first quarter of 2012 alone.

3.Lenders have more than $783.5 billion (600 billion euros) in debt maturing in 2012 alone - 75% of which is unsecured according to the Bank of England. This is 35% more money that needs to be refinanced than in 2011.

Europe will continue to be a mess until either its ministers get serious, or it disintegrates.

Interesting when you put in numbers then you get to grab the point on this pointless issue, this time no even a miracle is going to fix the EU economic mess.


Keith Fitz-Gerald: Why Europe's Latest Bailout Won't Work

moneymorning.com...

This is why the bailouts look like is no bailout at all and the numbers just keep growing as the months goes by. When you keep refinancing the debt it kind of gets very expensive after a while.

reply to post by marg6043


Well, marg, you were well ahead of the MSM. It seems they can't hide the fact you were spot on:

ECB's €489bn will 'buy valuable time' but is no eurozone debt bazooka

The European Central Bank's (ECB) unprecedented provision of a €489bn (£407.5bn) in cheap loans will "buy valuable time" for eurozone banks but has not improved their credit outlook, a director of Standard & Poor's (S&P) has warned.

Ouch!

...Amid a fresh raft of poor eurozone economic data, Scott Bugie, head of S&P's financial institutions division doused the key cause for pre-Christmas optimism. Although he agreed Wednesday's long-term refinancing operation was a "big deal", Mr Bugie told Reuters: "It is not solving the fundamental issues though... It's kicking the can a long way down the road rather than just a little bit, but in the end it is still kicking the big old can down the road."

He said the action did not "change the fundamental picture but it does buy valuable time". He added: "The move in itself will not lead to any improvement in (banks') credit ratings."

Earlier this month S&P put 15 of the 17 eurozone countries and some of their biggest banks on credit downgrade watch. The agency is expected to deliver a verdict on the credit watch in January.

On Friday Jean-Claude Juncker, prime minister of Luxembourg and head of the Eurogroup, said the threat of the credit downgrades was a "real concern." "It ultimately means that for those countries that lose their AAA rating, it will be more expensive to stock up on money on the financial markets if they have debt," he told reporters.
Bondmarkets again showed the signs of stress. The yield on Italian 10-year bonds rose to 6.8pc - dangerously close to the 7pc bail-out level. While UK gilts benefited, the yield on Spanish and French bonds were pushed up too.

The damage of the unrelenting debt crisis was also laid bare in yet more gloomy economic data across the eurozone...

Full article

When do the markets open again post-Christmas? I'm looking forward to my next dose of doom and gloom.

You guys may want to call me insane and pure crazy, but I just did almost all in on my Americican investments!

Talk with me in 2 or 3 months and I'd give you the result!

My personally belifies is that a rally is about!

I actually overheard a conversation today where someone said that the "Christmas rush" was a sign of things being all okay all of a sudden. I literally LOL'd

I had to explain to them that what we've seen over the last three weeks has been nothing more than a confidence trick, designed to ensure that the collapse happens after the idiots have spent all they can on crap made in China for their kids to unwrap on the 25th - and quickly break or loose interest in by Jan 1st.

But it's not really so surprising that the people are so ignorant to reality when you don't really see the MSM actually reporting the facts and figures in any truthful or meaningful way.

Has anyone else noticed that? Back in 2007/8 they were throwing charts and GDP to debt figures around like it was confetti, and now all you'll get is a mention of the last quarter retail stats on some business show.

If it wasn't so scary it would actually be hilarious to watch. But I think a lot of you are like me; we just want to grab people and shake them until the stupid falls out.

reply to post by detachedindividual


Yearly Bonus on the 31th of December...

January should be interesting

Listmenten! how crazy it may sound right now! but the current market it's completely detached from our (respective) goverment's fiscal policies as most peaople know!

America's numbers is still better than most of the world!

If it's not all manufactured that is?