The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by marg6043


Ya and this time they won't be able to get bailed out.

It could come as soon as TOMORROW... with spreads at 442 points for now...

Desperate Demand For Short-Term Crash Protection Pushes Implied Correlation Above 100%

In one of the more quirky results of the rush for short-term protection and macro overlays this morning, the price of index protection was bid so far above the 'fair-value' based on the volatility of the underlying S&P 500 index components that the implied correlation (a modeled measure of the relationship between index and single-name implied vol demand - often reflective of 'crash risk' sentiment) for Jan 2011 exploded above 100%. Yes, we know that is 'impossible', but the point being that last week's smash higher in equity (and credit), as we noted at the time, had the feel of hedgers capitulating which leaves today's growing tensions (Europe and domestic) enough to push nervous traders massively into liquid hedges (macro protection).

Investors are afraid as hell, especially for the December-January period. They are right to be afraid, very afraid.

Awwwwwwww...

The Italian Bond Maginot Line Has Just Been Pushed Back By 100bps

We commented earlier on the precipice of LCH.Clearnet's margin rules for Italian debt and the 450bps spread Maginot Line. Well, as always, there is some wiggle room in here and instead of using what seems 'obvious' as a benchmark (Bunds), LCH uses a blended AAA sovereign benchmark (consisting of Germany, France, and Holland). This makes a significant difference, obviously, and with Bunds massively outperforming today (now 86bps tighter than this archaic benchmark), ITA 10Y bonds ended the day at a spread of 355bps (not 440bps). So as long they keep France or Holland 'weak' then ITA margin calls should be safe for now.

So it went down because the base used for the spread has been going up... ridiculous.

reply to post by Vitchilo


You have to love how people try to make sense of fall outs.

Official: MF Global admitted using client cash as troubles mounted

An MF Global executive admitted that to federal regulators in a phone call early Monday after regulators discovered money missing from clients' accounts, according to an official familiar with the conversation.

The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss a preliminary investigation by federal regulators.

Government rules require securities firms to keep clients' money and company money in separate accounts. Violating them could result in civil penalties.

www.newser.com...

Ok this is just the funniest thing, the Greece power struggle keeps growing as CNBC at 3:50 PM Eastern time, the REAL PM of GREECE just came out and said officially taht he will push for a referendum, so he is not crazy or mentally challenged

So if during the Greece night he suffers a suicide or hart attack or is taken to an Asylum we already know why.

reply to post by marg6043


Yep this is great. I bet he's gonna be yelled at during the G20... HOW DARE YOU ALLOW DEMOCRACY IN YOUR COUNTRY!! likely to be said to him.

Greek Referendum Is On

* GREEK GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN TOLKAS SAYS REFERENDUM TO GO AHEAD

Will this lasts till Friday? Friday, vote to see if the government fails or not... and since it's planned for January, a LOT of things can happen till then...

They should just do it as fast as possible... if they wanted, they could do the referendum in 2 weeks.

reply to post by Vitchilo


That if, if, he makes it to Friday in one piece.

Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by Vitchilo

 

That if, if, he makes it to Friday in one piece.

Ya... wouldn't the be the first time the elite kills a leader... the guy holds the fate of the world economy in his hands.

They love to kill leaders with planes crashing... I hope he goes to Cannes in a bus or car, but I doubt it.

JP Morgan (JPM) says its interests are at 'significant risk' and seeks to avoid 'complete dissipation' of its cash collateral

YAY!

JP Morgan (JPM) cut by S&P Equity research to Hold from Buy

Awwwwwwww.

US Food Stamp Usage Hits New Record

So here is this month's refresh from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which informs us that in August, a new all time record number of Americans, or 45.8 million, relied on food stamps for sustenance.

That's a LOT of people... almost 15% of the population that depends on the US government to eat... crazy.

the more Americans that go on food stamps, the more profits JP Morgan makes.

Wow, the Euro's 2-day drop Monday-Tuesday makes this the 2nd biggest fall in over 3 years!

The butterfly's wings are quickly spawning a windstorm

Guest Post: Fed Trapped By Inflation

There will be NO announcement of QE 3 tomorrow. Why? Because the Fed has trapped itself into a corner. The first two rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE1 and 2) were viable for the Fed as inflation was running at deflationary levels in 2009 and at the bottom of their target range of 1-3% in 2010.

In both instances the implementation of asset purchase programs, which immediately juiced liquidity in the financial markets, had an immediate and pronounced effect on the level of inflation.

Today, with inflation currently approaching 4% on a year-over-year basis the Fed is not only outside its inflation mandate of 1-3% but any further cost pressures on the consumer is going to drive the economy into a recession.

Should be interesting tomorrow.

Lots of things coming to head this Week. Exciting,isn´t it?

* GREEKS TO VOTE ON EURO MEMBERSHIP IN REFERENDUM: PAPANDREOU - BBG

Now that's nice. Not on the austerity... but on EURO membership altogether...

* Netherlands Will Try to Get Greek Referendum Canceled, PM Says

That's so nice of them. Because of that, Greece shouldn't pay a dime back to the Netherlands. Doesn't matter how much Greece ``owes`` to the Netherlands, they shouldn't pay ANYTHING back.

Latest debt numbers...
Debt for fiscal year starting October 1 2011 till October 31 2011 : 203.37 billion or 6.56 billion/day ($21.16/day/citizen) or ($2.394 trillion deficit)
Debt for calendar year 2011 till October 31 : 995.78 billion or 3.28 billion/day ($10.57/day/citizen) ($1.195 trillion deficit)
Current debt as of October 31 : 14.993 trillion
Current debt ceiling : 14.694 trillion (first phase) 15.194 trillion (second phase) 16.694 trillion (final phase)

At the current average rate of 4.92 billion in new debt/day (or about $15.87 in new debt per day for every citizen in America...and that is just federal) it will take about 40 days before reaching the second phase of the debt ceiling hike, so around December 10, 2011...

US GDP : 15.012 trillion Q2 2011
US debt : 14.993 trillion

Total debt to GDP ratio : 99.87%

I had such a rush today all day that now I feel exhausted, all the news and so much to absorb is just debilitating on the phych.

Super Mario May Need a Bazooka to Save the Euro
Only by taking risks and confronting powerful interests can Mario Draghi hope to preserve the shaky 17-nation euro zone

The Super Mario of video game fame fights off Goombas and Koopa Troopas to save Princess Peach Toadstool. The suave, 64-year-old Italian economist nicknamed Super Mario by the Italian press looks nothing like Nintendo’s mustachioed plumber, but the mission he faces is even harder. As the new president of the European Central Bank starting Tuesday, Nov. 1, Mario Draghi faces the challenge of a lifetime: to save Europe’s damsel in distress, the 12-year-old single currency known as the euro.

Now after reading the next part of the article I came to the conclusion that the EU leaders and banks are crazy they are all crazy or let say the nations in the EU are all crazy, they are pushing bonds from countries that actually are nothing but junk.

YOu hear me people nothing but a junk bond market, if the nations fail like Greece what wil happen with all those bonds?

De Grauwe wants Super Mario to get himself a bazooka—a weapon so powerful that he might never need to pull its trigger. The bazooka would be a firm commitment from the European Central Bank that it will buy as many Italian bonds as necessary to keep interest rates from spiraling out of control. With default risk off the table, Italian bond yields would fall to levels that the government could more readily afford to pay. Crisis averted

So now forcing Central banks to buy junk bonds from failing countries is the right thing to do.

www.businessweek.com...

reply to post by marg6043

The bazooka would be a firm commitment from the European Central Bank that it will buy as many Italian bonds as necessary to keep interest rates from spiraling out of control.

Except you start doing that, you'll be forced to buy the bonds of Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Greece and France when they get downgraded... and it won't be long before their balance sheet is bigger than the FED's.

reply to post by Vitchilo


Exactly Vitchilo I am a slow learner but darn I am not that stupid to see that this bond trash buying is nothing but taking debt and more debt in top of some more debt.

What good does that do to nations? if you know that the nations in question will end up defaulting anyway in the future as their debt are already uncontrollable.

EU Leaders Hold Pre-G-20 Talks to Push Greece on Bailout

The crocks wants to keep pushing the darn bailout to Greece, is this a sign of desperation? or what.

European leaders racing to prevent their week-old debt crisis strategy from unraveling convene emergency talks today to tell Greece there is no alternative to the budget cuts imposed in the bailout plan.

These crocks will not let the Greece get their referendum they want the Greece PM to take the deal and take it now even when the crocks have not Idea how they will finance the bailout out.

“Uncertainty and fear is palpable,” Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, said by e-mail. “The political cost of the economic austerity does not appear fully appreciated by policy makers or investors.”

Papandreou will join a group at about 8:30 p.m. comprising Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde as well as European Union authorities, according to a statement from Sarkozy’s office. They will have met at about 5:30 p.m. without Papandreou.

Rush, rush, rush, to save the EU

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, under pressure to cut Europe’s second-biggest debt load, convened a special meeting of advisers late yesterday to discuss budget-cutting plans. Like Sarkozy, Berlusconi held crisis talks with Merkel yesterday. His key cabinet ministers will meet today to draft measures for the country’s financial stability legislation, the Italian news agency ANSA said, citing government officials.

So the crocks are now rushing also to put on the table how the Austerity should got with Italy because that is another sore in the EU painful death

The deal to reduce Greece’s debt load will do nothing to aid the country’s recovery from recession, opposition New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras said on Oct. 27. Papandreou’s majority meanwhile slipped as his support narrowed to 152 lawmakers in the 300-deputy parliament amid a party rebellion.

As usual the Greeks have everything to lose either way, with bailout or referendum so I guess the least of the two evils is to give back the power to the people in the nation to chose

www.businessweek.com...

Sorry for the misspelling I am exhausted

reply to post by marg6043

Sorry for the misspelling I am exhausted

Aren't we all?

You are totally right, as always, let the EU die already.

reply to post by Vitchilo


I´m just grateful that i don´t have to post everything on my own anymore. Its already hard enough following it and trying to understand whats going on,which is hard enough as it is.

I just hope its over soon,can´t stand this BS much longer...


Edit to stay On-Topic:

Morgan Stanley On What Happens Next In Greece, And Why It Is All Very Euro Negative

[...]
Friday’s confidence vote in the Greek parliament will be extremely important in our view and will likely set the pace of the anticipated EUR decline over the coming months. Greek Prime Minister Papandreou could now find it difficult to win a confidence vote (due Friday 10GMT) given the defections from the government leave only the slimmest of majorities (just 151 votes in the 300 parliament). If the Greek PM fails to win the confidence vote then the government will fall. There is the possibility for a new Government under a different PM or the formation of a unity government. But these outcomes seem unlikely given that the opposition is strongly in favour of new elections. While new elections will delay the vote on the new budget reform measures and potentially delay the next round of bailout funds from the EU, this is likely to be seen as one of the most positive (least bearish) outcomes for the EUR as it will avoid a referendum. There could even be an initial relief rebound for the EUR on any news that a referendum is being avoided, by the continued uncertainty and delays with regard the passing of the new budget measures and payment of EU bailout funds will likely keep the EUR under pressure over the medium term. Indeed, most of the options under discussion in the market are EUR negative in our view. A victory by Papandreou in the confidence vote on Friday is likely to be seen as the most bearish for the EUR, opening the door to a referendum and the potential rejection of the bailout package by the Greek population.
[...]

If the Confidence Vote on Friday suceeds and Papa. stays in Power,the Referendum will likely go ahead as planned (considering he stays in Power this long).

If the Confidence Vote on Friday fails,the new Goverment could delay or even cancel the Referendum and accept the Bailout.

The greek people have been promised a vote. if that right is taken away form the
people, their will be a revolution and no government will be able to ratify a greek bail
out as their will be no one in power to do so. If the germans send "peace keepers"
well that will be the end of the game. german sodiers on greek soil will not be taken
lightly by the greeks.

Originally posted by wondera
If the germans send "peace keepers"
well that will be the end of the game. german sodiers on greek soil will not be taken
lightly by the greeks.

No it will not they will see it as a invasion of their nations by the EU, things may turn very ugly in no time, specially for the people, more reason for NATO to get involved and take over the regime change, at the end the loses as usual will be the Greek people as they will be told what to do.

MF Global Bankruptcy Exposes Vulnerability of U.S. Banks to Eurozone Debt Crisis

Soo, is that any surprise for any of us?, I don't think so we pretty much imagine the mess that the US banks and "financial instutions" hold when it comes to the EU central banks and their own mess.

The bankruptcy of MF Global Holdings (NYSE: MF) was a distressing signal to investors that it is possible for U.S. financial institutions to fall victim to the Eurozone debt crisis.

How much debt US banks have with Germany and French banks?

"Given that U.S. banks have an estimated loan exposure to German and Frenchbanks in excess of $1.2 trillion and direct exposure to the PIIGS valued at $641billion, a collapse of a major European bank could produce similar problems inU.S. institutions," a CRS research report said earlier this month.

Soo, is a lot of hidden exposoure out there that corruption had taken hold on.

Although the major U.S. banks have less exposure relative to available capital, their many tendrils in Europe - particularly to European banks - will inevitably drag them into any financial meltdown in the Eurozone.

Soo, the crocks will roast after.

moneymorning.com...