The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by Shenon


I see, no so far from what we got here, in the US a corporate dictatorship. So the vote went on, I read that the EU may look for financial help from no only China but Brazil, India and Russia.

So the debt will be spread widely among other nations as well.

reply to post by marg6043


Forget it. Russia? Are you kidding? China said NO time and time again,thats a Rumour that resurfaces every Week (and each Time China denies it) India? Where the hell did you read that? Even Brazil doesn´t want to have anything to do with us (See here: Brazil Refuses To Buy European Bonds, Dashing Hopes For A BRIC-based European Rescue


And incase this gets overlooked (since i doubt this will be mentioned in the MSM whatsoever):

Last Treasury Auction Before US Breaches 100% Debt To GDP Prices Quietly And Without Surprises

There is little if anything one can say about today's 5 Year auction. It priced at 1.055%, just above the record low 1.015% in September, and well inside the WI 5 Year trading at 1.08%, at a solid 2.90 Bid To Cover, compared to the 2.82 six auction average. The internals were boring, with Indirects taking down 49.3% of the auction, compared to the 40.5% LTM average, Directs declined modestly to 10.4% (in line with the 11.2% average), and Dealer take down unchanged from September at 40.3%. However, one massively notable thing about this auction is that it is the last one, probably ever, in which the US debt/GDP ratio is still under 100% following the auction. Adding today's $35 billion to yesterday's $35 billion in Two year bonds, brings total US debt to $15.010 trillion, with GDP still at $15.013 trillion (granted this number may be revised tomorrow), resulting in a debt to GDP ratio of 99.99%. Tomorrow's historical $29 billion in 7 Year bonds will take America into that uncharted territory of triple digit debt to GDP. But yes, the formal settlement of all bonds will not occur until Halloween, so we can celebrate on several days America's historic transition one step closer to insolvency.

reply to post by Shenon


Yeah, things are not peachy in the Great Amerka, unless you are on the top 1%

Income of top 1 percent far outgrew others: report

"For the 1 percent of the population with the highest income, average real after-tax household income grew by 275 percent between 1979 and 2007," said the report from the CBO, a nonpartisan budget and tax analysis arm of Congress.

The next-highest 19 percent of earners saw their income grow by 65 percent over the same period. Income grew by just under 40 percent for the 60 percent of the population in the middle, while the 20 percent at the bottom of the scale saw income growth of only about 18 percent, the report said.

www.msnbc.msn.com...

Wonder why the sudden Rally? Because they are Idiots...

Idiot Market Jumps On 12 Hour Old News Of Yet Another Chinese Euro Bailout, Since Refuted

Apparently the latest news driving the market is this from AP, which hit the tape 12 hours ago:
[...]
This would be wonderful, if only it wasn't refuted 3 short hours later by none other than Reuters:
[...]

Sigh.

Sigh Indeed...as i said a little earlier,every Week there is another Fake Rumour that China is gonna save everyone...

reply to post by Shenon


The extra funding could be supplied using the IMF.

‘Extra Funding'

“Is it possible to get some extra funding from IMF, from BRIC countries for instance,” said Finland’s Jyrki Katainen, using an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India and China.

Italy, with debt of 119 percent of gross domestic product, came under pressure to find more savings to be eligible for European help in fending off speculators.

Merkel made clear that Italy cannot count on unrestricted European support in what she called a “conversation among friends” with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

“Confidence won’t result merely from a firewall,” Merkel said. “Italy has great economic strength, but Italy does also have a very high level of debt and that has to be reduced in a credible way in the years ahead.”

After a year of wrestling with the ECB over burden sharing for bondholders, Merkel was on the central bank’s side this time, sparing it from a role in financing state deficits.

www.bloomberg.com...

I will not be surprised if the US will be pushing the IMF here for the final financing.

Sad truly because it means that when the crap hit the ceiling eventually more countries will be going down as they be involved in the bailout mess.

Because that is what the bailout is a mess, as so far none of the 17 trillions been used since 2008 have fix anything yet and never will.

Do you people know what is a quadrillion?
What? Your abacus can't deal with it?
Better adjust for using it...

I was about to say that things are getting a bit emotionally hypersensitive, but declined, and then I stumble on this one:

Fraudster Bernard Madoff and wife 'attempted suicide'

Situation is that serious. This is typical disturbance of behavior when in "crisis":

Among the pills were Ambien (a sedative) and possibly Klonopin (for seizure and panic disorder treatment).

"We took pills and woke up the next day... It was very impulsive and I am glad we woke up", Mrs Madoff said.

www.bbc.co.uk...

Why is this hitting the headlines?

"I don't know whose idea it was, but we decided to kill ourselves because it was so horrendous what was happening," she said.

I bet Klonopin is in great demand these days

Banks Bow to ‘Last Word' From Merkel, Sarkozy on Greek Debt

I can't believe this *****!
Someone has earned luncheon in Makaha
This will produce shining faces on TV anchors.

news.businessweek.com...

The Institute of International Finance, which represents financial companies, agreed to “develop a concrete voluntary agreement on the firm basis of a nominal discount of 50 percent on notional Greek debt held by private investors,” Managing Director Charles Dallara said in a statement e-mailed at 4:26 a.m. in Brussels.

Voluntary-mandatory

reply to post by DangerDeath


Here Is How The 50% Greek Haircut Is Actually Just 28%



Lets see how long it takes for the "Experts" to do the Math...At least,this should buy the System another Week at most. Expect more Headlines and Speeches that "everything is fixed now" At least for the next few Days until the Crisis gets even worse...

hold on for the roller coaster ride... the CAC, FTSE, DAX...& the DOW Futures are all up significantly... with the DOW Jones above 12,000 ... hooray?

well, the reason is because the EU has technically 'forgiven' some of the debt/swaps that investors bet on...
the wording concerning some of the sovereign debt default swaps is such that these CDS will not have to be paid... so there are no winners only losers that spent money betting Greece, et al would go belly up in default


i touched on this subject in some thread weeks ago, but for the life of me i cannot find the post in my listings of posts in my Profile..

the thing is... despite the early enthusiasm... when the results of non-payments of CDS are fully realized... the whole casino of credit swaps as an instrument to protect ones positions are null & void and unreliable---and Markets detest uncertainty


either the EU and the USA negate all those swaps & bets and end the casino betting binge or go
-All In-
and back the paper/bonds/bets with taxpayer monies as the USA Fed did 3 years ago.

i suspect the EU Markets will lead the way down if the CDS paper is rendered non-payable based on technical jargon

1 Trillion in 'leveraged money', for the banks. well not a direct refinance from a fund,
but a recapitialization redirection into more debt which is insured with the ESEF. wow so
ESEF pays when the bailed out banks defalt on the new loans.
And Italy and spain have still to find massive cuts to there ecconomy in a short period of time
which is always brilliant for ecconomies to do. the Italians being such resurved people I'm sure
they take it on the chin with no complaint. riots and resession good luck.

reply to post by wondera


Thanks, you, you nailed, beside the "jargon" of "big words"by financial analyst to explain the bailouts in references to the financial mess and to make sound so official it end up on the same crap, nothing but more debt and that is the days of the financial Markets life debt and more debt that never will be repaid.

I think I will move my meandering from the thread margie and I were chillin in here for discussion ..

Actually it looks like this may be a rather large crisis in the making..

So Much For Orderly Default In Greece, New Haircuts Likely To Trigger CDS

The latest discussions in Europe are signaling steeper Greek debt cuts than the 21% previously on the table, prompting analysts at Nomura to release a note Wednesday warning that a disorderly default is now the most likely scenario, and will trigger payouts on credit default swaps (CDS).

Those triggers will come from the likelihood that larger haircuts – reports Monday suggested 50 cents on the euro with bondholders getting €15 in cash and €35 in new 30-year, 6% coupon paper for every €100 in Greek debt – will be involuntary. On Greek debt alone the impact is manageable, as Nomura estimates just €50 billion in total losses, “but the impact through rising risk premia in other Eurozone bond markets could be significant,” according to strategists Jens Nordvig, Lefteris Farmakis and Dimitris Drakopoulos.

It's also being estimated that Greek pensions will take most of the hit, regardless a 50 billion euro hit to the private bank sector, if triggering a CDS payout will result in hundreds of billions in losses. And gains of course.

So what actually would pull the trigger on the derivative disaster of 2011?

Banks to Define Greek Bond Default

"It all depends on the facts, but on the straight reading of the clause, if this doesn't bind all of a reference obligation's bondholders then it's not a restructuring credit event,"

The key word being used by the ECB is "Voluntary", apparently in the actual CDS contracts the wording is a voluntary restructuring of the debt (haircut) will not trigger a payout.

But.. if the banks determine that they really don't have much of a choice, and decide to look after shareholders over the ECB, the trigger will occur. Because if the banks simply decide not to take the write down (and who would?) Greece defaults anyways.. Citibank alone, an American bank, is expecting as much as a 60% haircut based on the amount and types of bonds it holds. Then there is the matter that almost all of the bonds, or at least the other 50% left over, get rolled into a moderate yielding 30 year bond. So you loose 50% of the capital on debt that was paying 98% (1year notes) into a 30 year at 6%.

I'll take the CDS payout please.

For poor Greek banks it won't even matter.. a loss of 50% on it's massive holdings of Greek debt will instantly push every major bank into insolvency. So the ECB will need to bail them out with their little "capital buffer" plan. By the way, if you're Greek ... you might want to get your money out of the bank.. fast..

Total loss for all banks is supposed to be around $103 billion dollars.

There are 206 billion euros of Greek government bonds in private sector hands, so a 50 percent haircut would see banks take a 103 billion hit. Greek companies hold an estimated 80 billion euros, including 45-50 billion by its banks. Those banks hurt by the haircut could need about 30 billion euros of capital from the state to shore them up as part of a recapitalization plan alongside the Greek debt talks, reducing the net benefit to Greece to nearer 70 billion euros. The private sector agreed in July to take a mere 21 percent loss on their holdings of Greek debt, but the outlook has since deteriorated and they have been told they need to take a bigger loss to put Greece on a more sustainable path. [6]

I'm also seeing a lot of discrepincy on the size of the CDS exposure for Greek debt. Every major news outlet is saying exposure is under $4b Euro's .. which makes absolutely no sense considering CDS contracts for Greek bonds are currently 25c/euro Which, by the way the Wall Street Journal has now picked up on the CDS issue as well ..online.wsj.com...

www.ft.com...
States that a trigger would issue $5b in payouts. The total CDS market however is $79b. Which would push the largest insurers into insolvency (cough cough AIG) which would in turn trigger CDS payouts on it's own investments .. perhaps triggering a derivative ripple effect.

Many strategists dismiss worries that such a decision would hit the market, insisting that Greece will eventually default and investors who bought protection will get paid – if not in the next few weeks, probably by 2012 or 2013.

Ten banks and five investment funds, which make up the voting members of the so-called determinations committee that meets under the auspices of Isda, will decide on the fate of Greek cds

Seems like my Gut Feeling was right...

Albert Edwards: "The Eurozone Crisis Will Get Much, Much Worse" And "The ECB Will Print"

Anyone expecting that the events over the last 24 hours will have changed the persistently negative outlook of one of the original skeptics, will be disappointed. The SocGen strategist falls back to that old time-tested principle in complicated situations: math and logic. His summary of events released this morning: "The increasingly frenzied attempts of eurozone governments to persuade financial markets that they can draw a line under this crisis will ultimately fail – even if this week’s measures bring some short-term relief. I have minimal confidence that governments can turn this around within the confines of the eurozone project. You might be surprised though that I feel more bullish! Why? Both Dylan and I have come to the view that the ECB will be forced, by events, to monetise debt in the GIIPS and beyond. And if investors believe the governments in Spain and Italy are bust, then Germany, France, and not forgetting the UK and US, are far, far worse." To be sure, we may see a brief respite as we get the traditional post-TARP knee jerk reaction, only for markets to digest the sad reality of the situation in the proceeding 48 hours. And what will that imply? To Edwards, it will be nothing short of the realization, that even with €1 trillion (or more), the ECB will have no choice but to commence outright monetization as well. And the real question will be whether or not "Germany, will leave the eurozone after being over-ruled on the ECB (again!) and in the face of such monetary debauchery?"

The Question i asked numerous Times remains:

And going back full circle to the most recent events, Edwards redirects to a new and interesting question: not whether this bailout attempt will succeed: it won't; not whether the ECB will be forced to step up to the plate and monetize: it will, but whether or not Germany, after being once again overruled by Europe will say enough, and leave the eurozone.

Will Germany leave the Euro when the ECB starts the Printing Presses?



But Europe is not the only one that suceeded in kicking the can down the Road for a little longer...

Q3 Advance GDP Prints At 2.5% In Line With Expectations; 100% Debt-To-GDP Threshold Postponed By 45 Days

[...]
Probably the only actual news here is that total US GDP is now "suggested" to be $15,199 billion, up from $15,013. What this means is that the moment of 100% debt to GDP for the US has been pushed back from today, following the 7 Year auction, to a point in mid-December.

Yay

50% haircut? Meh. More like 62%+ haircut.

Greek Bonds Trading With Expectation Of Substantial Further Haircuts

If anything, judging by prevalent values, even assuming some modest accrued interest, the bond market is expecting a final haircut of about 62%.

And guess what, that haircut is mainly greek pension funds.

# This leaves just ~€200 billion in actual debt to undergo a haircut.
# Apply a 50% haircut to this debt (ignoring the fact that of this about €35 billion is held by Greek pension funds, and once the realization that Greek pensions have been cut in half dawns upon the population, the result will be the biggest riots ever seen in Athens yet).
# Total debt to be cut: just about €100 billion.
# Hence, of the total €350 billion, just €100 billion is eliminated, most of it used to backstop and service Greek pension and retirement obligations

Once people in Greece realize what is happening, it's gonna be ugly. The funniest thing in all that? It's coming everywhere else. In France, in Japan, in the US, in the UK, in Canada and who knows where else. An ``entitled`` population that just got robbed is a dangerous one. Almost as dangerous as an hungry one.

EU pushes banks to find extra €106bn for June

Good luck.

U.S. Supercommittee Flirts With Failure

Of course.

Japan's Finance Minister Blames Yen Rise on Speculators

Well it shouldn't be that high due to Japan's deficits, debt level, inversed pyramid population and the general lack of money around the world to buy more useless stuff.

China Nixes Rapid Yuan Rise

Got to keep the currency low to keep exports strong so people do not become unemployed and start a revolution against the corrupt communist party...

reply to post by Rockpuck


Thanks Rockpuck, you know is really something bothering me from all this EU/Greek Saga, I wonder if the purpose of the so call financial gurus working on the global economy are actually trying to crash the global economy and not actually trying to fix it.

Why? because no matter how much I try to make sense of the whole bailout thing and all the information on this is just making things worst it doesn't add on how you can fix something with more debt.

I am going crazy? or others see the irony of all this economic problems.

reply to post by Vitchilo


Something is cooking with the US financial committee, this morning were news that they have been getting at each other trying to work on how to reduce the deficit.

So is something going on here in the US that is not reaching our ears right now when it comes to the economy also I believe that congress is getting a littler bit anxious about the protest going on.

Any bad news about the economy right now when it comes to the financial markets and the too big to fail and we may have a full blown revolution in the streets. (speculative speaking)

reply to post by marg6043


No,you´re not Crazy. This Fiat-System can´t be fixed,because it is "designed/mutated" in a way that it needs to be reset after awhile.

But, now that every Nations is dependant and connected to each other,a Reset is impossible without plunging the whole World into Chaos and Anarchy.

Globalizations just doesn´t work with the current System...

reply to post by Shenon


Germany would love a weaker Euro, as they are industrious, it would boost exports.. but lower the quality of life. Germany's REAL problem is that they are the adult in the room that everyone asks advice for, then does the complete opposite but asks them to foot the bill anyways.

reply to post by Vitchilo

The fed?

Probably Government spending. After the debt fiasco, which would have occurred last quarter, the Treasury had the largest debt auction in our history, flushing the Treasury and thus the economy (because naturally we spent it all) with fresh Benjamins. Then there is always the ever prevalent corporations with their record profits (Exxon raked in 41% increase year over year, GDP loved that). As for the PCE report it's self why they even print that report is beyond me, no one cares about it because of it's awkward calculations method (chained consumption changes based on price fluctuation) blah. Most peeps just look at the CPI for a quarterly dose of BS.

reply to post by marg6043


I thinks they really really really want(ed) to fix it .... but don't know how. Which is more frightening, governments and or banks (what's the difference?) trying to collapse the economy ... or government and or banks doing everything they can to advert the chaos of a global economic collapse and failing utterly, miserably, and spectacularly?

Well hopefully marg, fear forces the crooks in Washington DC to do the right thing. Only calling and ``voting`` hasn't work for decades. History has proven that. Protesting massively in the streets for months might.

A few more infos on the positive GDP ``growth`` numbers...
Q3 Advance GDP Prints At 2.5% In Line With Expectations; 100% Debt-To-GDP Threshold Postponed By 45 Days

What drove it? A massive surge in PCE which increased from 0.5% to 1.72% as a portion of annualized GDP: in other words, as consumer confidence hit a near record low, and as the stock market plunged to 2011 lows, somehow Americans spent $130 billion annualized over and on top what they spent in Q2. In fact, standalone PCE was 2.4%, substantially higher than the forecast 1.9% and the previous 0.7%. Where this spending power came from, we would be delighted to know.

Basically probably cooking the numbers.

Another analysis from Karl.
GDP: 2.5% "Meets Expectations"

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 2.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 3.3 percent in the second. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent in the second.

Inflation going down...

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in the second. Durable goods increased 4.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 5.3 percent. Nondurable goods increased 0.2 percent, the same increase as in the second. Services increased 3.0 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent.

This is not what you want to see - a shift toward more service consumption. Durables is good for what it is, but most of it was probably autos, given recent numbers, and we'll see if that's maintainable. Many people believe it is. I do not.

Nonresidential structures increased 13.3 percent, compared with an increase of 22.6 percent.

Hmmm... non-residential building? These are big numbers; are they overly optimistic? I believe so, and that could be an ugly snapback if so. If not, this is going to be quite some bounce - but I'm not buying it just as I didn't last quarter. Those sorts of increases are extraordinary in the non-residential side, and should have reflected in employment. They haven't, which leads me not to believe them.

Real exports of goods and services increased 4.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent in the second. Real imports of goods and services increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent.

How come I don't see this improvement in the trade balance figures? (Sigh....)

Because they are lying?

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 2.2 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.0 percent in the second.

This is good right?

Current-dollar personal income increased $29.5 billion (0.9 percent) in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $145.7 billion (4.6 percent) in the second.

Oooops. That means people are buying on CREDIT... putting themselves more in debt.

Disposable personal income increased $17.0 billion (0.6 percent) in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $110.5 billion (3.9 percent) in the second. Real disposable personal income decreased 1.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.6 percent.

Another confirmation that all that buying was on CREDIT... people putting themselves more in debt once more... and people being poorer once more. Citi made most of their growth in profits on credit cards after all.

The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 4.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with 5.1 percent in the second.

So people saving less...

IF that data is true, people have learned nothing and are back to their old habits of taking loans and credit cards to buy their rainbow crapping unicorns.

I think that some of the speculators are pushing for a default, because it will pay out CDS in insurance.

Anyone who has investments in the area will no doubtedly understand that if they take the long term payout, they won't see as much value as an insurance on the CD would payout.

From a purely business point of view, the default is a better payday.

Of course, there is the problem that the insurers wouldn't be able to pay out their obligations.
Which obviously points to a restructuring of the financial sector that no one wants to do.