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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on Aug, 30 2010 @ 03:05 PM
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reply to post by curioustype
 


If anyone's interested, I just read an update by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor, Telegraph.co.uk Backlash over China curb on metal exports on that situation I mentioned earlier (p.708) re: China ceasing export of all rare-earth minerals.

It appears that that situation is now beginning to generate tangible friction and concern with Japan and Washington now reacting.



China's draconian export curbs on rare earth minerals needed by the rest of the world for frontier technologies is escalating into a serious diplomatic and trade clash with the United States and other leading powers.





Japan's foreign minister Katsuya Okada issued what amounted to a formal protest at top-level meeting with Chinese officials in Beijing over the weekend, saying the sudden cut-off was "affecting the global production chain".

It is the latest sign of rising pressure after angry complaints by companies outside China that rely on this family of 17 metals for hybrid cars, mobile phones, superconductors, navigation, and a host of high-tech industries.





The last US mine shut 14 years ago, discouraged by tough US environmental rules. The US General Accounting Office said China now has a "dominant position" with market power. "Rebuilding a US rare earth supply chain may take up to 15 years," it said.






Baotou Steel High Tech Co said in February that it was building storage space for 200,000 tonnes of rare earth oxides. The company has since been told to stockpile metals by party bosses in Inner Mongolia. China Daily reports that Baotou and Jiangxi Copper are aligning their policies and now "virtually control" the market.

China claims it will need a growing proportion of these metals for its own industries, but US and Japanese officials say privately that Beijing's methods are not in keeping with the WTO ethos. Japan has already drafted a "Strategy For Enhancing Stable Supplies of Rare Metals" and has been stockpiling.

Rare earth metals are sprinkled in iPads, BlackBerrys, plasma TVs, lasers, wind turbines, hybrid engines, and smart bombs. They cannot easily be replaced, if at all. Neodymium enhances magnets at high heat, and cerium is used in catalytic converters. Rare earth ores are not in fact rare, merely scattered and costly to extract. There are ample reserves in the US, Australia, Canada, Russia, and Greenland. A number of explorers are reopening mines but will not produce significant amounts until mid-decade.


Then I just read that new post on ATS re: Possible defection or missing senior Chinese state bank official over an alleged $multi-billion loss on US bonds....and there's N.Korea, Iran, Taiwan...is it me or are things hotting up a bit?

I wonder where this dispute is going?



[edit on 30-8-2010 by curioustype]




posted on Aug, 31 2010 @ 07:14 AM
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reply to post by curioustype
 


Actually we posted here in ATS two years ago until last year the surge of Chinese investments on minerals and natural resources around the world, this was nothing but power grab for control of resources.

But with the volatile economic fall down nations were more than happy to sell what they have including US.

But it was good news in the American Steel front yesterday on CNBC, because China "problems" US was able to have a surge of Steel export to other countries because of demand.



posted on Sep, 2 2010 @ 12:59 PM
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why this market range?

from a steady deflation of equity prices to a 250 point rebound with absolutely no good-news as a market ignighter...

because its a game of cat-&-mouse...every player is inching closer to the edge of the panic abyss... and theior rivals inch even closer in response



consider the following:


source: gonzalolira.blogspot.com...


Everyone is aware of the idea of a “Treasury bubble” making the rounds.

A lot of people—myself included—think that the Fed, the Treasury and the
American Zombies are colluding in a triangular trade in Treasury bonds,
carrying out a de facto Stealth Monetization: The Treasury issues the debt
to finance fiscal spending, the TBTF banks buy them, with money provided
to them by the Fed.
...


recall the 'banks' excess reserves that are getting interest from the FED,
that how the FED is getting money to the TBTF zombie Banks to 'buy' the
Treasuries at the usual auctions...

the FED & Treas. are also supplying
foreign central banks with 'funds' to buy Treasuries at the Auctions,
but i suspect the mechanism being used has to do with the toxic paper & MBS'
that these banks got swindled with, which the FED is 'buying at 100%' value



this is all an open secret now, but when the panic hits, everyone will get out of
Treasuries all at once, which is a matter of hours...
and commodities & gold will skyrocket as a result, then
the hyperinflation hits the taxable economy


right now, the DOW/NYSE/AMEX/Forex/commodity markets are greatly funded with the Treasury & bond holdings trading hand on the books...
& everything is in a 'bubble'...not just the Treasuries...


hold on,






[edit on 2-9-2010 by St Udio]



posted on Sep, 2 2010 @ 03:01 PM
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reply to post by St Udio
 


I would bet all I own that is exactly what's happening to Treasuries. In my opinion, just taking into account the total wealth lost in the crash there wasn't enough liquid funds available to inflate the massive debt we've been racking up AND re-inflate the Equities as well as the entire EU Government sponsored debt. The whole systems completely out of whack.. if it doesn't come crashing down due to a popping bubble, eventually it will come crashing down because the fundamental mechanics have been so screwed up the economy won't be able to operate as it should.



posted on Sep, 2 2010 @ 04:37 PM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


So you do agree with the hyperinflationary outcome now? If not, where do you deviate?



posted on Sep, 2 2010 @ 05:15 PM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 



completely understood.

thanks for the indication that there is some thinking going on,
just as you have indicated... there is a little bit of deductive
reasoning involved

a 2nd * for you



posted on Sep, 2 2010 @ 06:04 PM
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reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar
 


No I believe hyperinflation at this point in time is utterly impossible. I believe that what we now stare into is the dark abyss of a Deflationary Spiral.

And given the massive debt issues plaguing the largest economy in the World (The EU) there will be no government spending to get us out of the next deflationary slump.. ironically.. this is exactly what happened in the Great Depression when Government "stimulus" plans failed to stimulate the economy (such as civilian work corps and so on) let's just hope the World War bit doesn't come with this depression as well.



posted on Sep, 2 2010 @ 07:33 PM
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posted by st udio
this is all an open secret now, but when the panic hits, everyone will get out of
Treasuries all at once, which is a matter of hours...
and commodities & gold will skyrocket as a result, then
the hyperinflation hits the taxable economy
reply to post by Rockpuck
 


Here is a quote from st udio's post. So I can understand where you're coming from, where do you disagree? Thanks



posted on Sep, 3 2010 @ 05:59 PM
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Clearly TPTB didn't like the markets being that low, they went all out this week to get it back to the 10,400 mark.

All on no good news no less.


Putting it into perspective, the total added value for this week alone in Equities was 1.2 TRILLION Dollars.


[edit on 9/3/2010 by Rockpuck]



posted on Sep, 3 2010 @ 09:22 PM
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reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar
 


Hyperinflation can only occur at the Consumer level, if the price of goods exceeds the inflation of wages, Deflation occurs. If prices rise and wages exceed the price of goods, Inflation occurs (this is the "good" kind). If Prices exceed the growth in wages, but wages grow at substantial rates, Hyperinflation occurs.

As of now and the foreseeable future, denomination of Reserve Notes will not be increasing to directly monetize debt, meaning wage growth of substantial levels will not occur, and seeing as the wage base stagnate at the consumer level while prices increase due to the deflation of value in the Dollar... we are thus seeing the beginning of a Deflationary Spiral (which was only very briefly disrupted)



posted on Sep, 3 2010 @ 11:08 PM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


Rockpuck your not buying into that there is a recovery are you?
including the today just job report.

from the job report itself
www.bls.gov...




The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes re- ferred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 331,000 over the month to 8.9 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)




because they were unable to find a full-time job



and again the FEDS are playing with the job rate number from 9.9 to 9.6
how ironically funny.




[edit on 3-9-2010 by Agent_USA_Supporter]



posted on Sep, 4 2010 @ 01:20 AM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 

Ah, I see where you're coming from. I think that your view is widely held right now. I personally think that the point that's being missed is that 'normal' inflation, and I use the term loosely, is a very different phenomenon than hyperinflation.

Inflation is just as you have correctly described it. Whereas hyperinflation is the loss of confidence in a governments debt. Since a govts debt is denominated in its currency then it follows that a loss of confidence in its debt will in fact be a loss of confidence in its currency.

Since 'deflation' has taken over in the areas which previously saw a massive bout of inflation via low interest rates, we are now seeing the govt take on massive amounts of debt via deficit spending as well as purchases of the previously inflated assets at the inflated prices. That debt is already unpayable and will get far worse going forward. Which will lead to a loss of confidence in our debt.

So it seems that 'deflation' would naturally precede hyperinflation, because what else would drive a nation into such debt that confidence would then be lost in its debt. At least this is how history shows that it has happened in the past.

I would say that the confusion lies in the whole fiat money as debt paradigm. Paper money has no intrinsic value and we have to learn that over and over again apparently. 'I can't be out of money, I still have checks!'. That's what we're saying as a country and we need to wake up to reality.

Deflation would be a good thing because it would return value to the money, that's why they won't let it happen. Why would they want people who've saved money to have increased purchasing power? They've got debt to issue and it's gotta come from somewhere. So they'll get it from the savers and investors by devaluing the unit of measurement under which they saved and invested.

I'll show you just how easy it is to monetize the debt and stop deflation in its tracks. 100,000,000,000,000,000. There ya go. That's how its done at the fed, and they've got a bigger keyboard than me!


Anyway that's my $.02.



posted on Sep, 4 2010 @ 07:07 AM
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Hyperinflation is just another name for starvation.

Watch out for your ability to buy food, and also see if there are empty shelves in shops. You don't really need this econ-talk to understand simple things.

It is all result of policy. There's only one kind of people to blame, not "laws of economy" and "nature of things".



posted on Sep, 4 2010 @ 03:27 PM
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reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar
 




Whereas hyperinflation is the loss of confidence in a governments debt.


It's just the dramatic increase in availability of any given currency while value depreciates.

If we had "hyperinflation" but wages never grew, the price of a happy meal would be say $100 .... but no one would be able to buy, because they'd still be making $8/hr ... so they wouldn't buy, and the corporations would either dramatically lower prices or go out of business..

It creates Deflation. This is exactly what happened from 2001-2008, it was exceptionally bad into 2006-2008 .. the price of gas was through the roof, food prices, cost of every day items and what happened, it ate away at the savings and expendable income of the consumer, because the CONSUMERS WAGES never grew. Eventually the economy contracted, credit contracted, prices contracted, we had the only deflated price year during a Christmas season on record.

If loss of interest in Government Debt did occur, the only way hyperinflation would happen is if the Government took measures to monetize our own debt through the increase of the monetary supply, but would only directly effect the consumer if the increase was extreme or as a faster method the Reserve increases denomination altering the valued level of all Reserve notes instantaneously to cut total debt obligations by drastic percentage points instantly.



Deflation would be a good thing because it would return value to the money


Usually Deflation, of the economy, is a result of a very weak currency.. remember when we are talking about "Deflation, inflation" we are not talking about the currency only, we are talking about the entire economy. Deflation is never a good thing, it's a terrible thing, and deflationary spirals or just as bad if not worse than hyperinflation... we've only had to deflationary spirals in living memory, 1929 and 2007

I'll just stick by my belief, and in a few quarters we will start to see the effects of said deflation. If it never shows up I will make a nice public apology on the thread lol.



posted on Sep, 4 2010 @ 04:25 PM
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Well, I would just point out that the value of a dollar would be affected either positively or negatively by inflation or deflation. So if inflation is the devaluing of a dollar, then deflation is the strenghtening of a dollar. I think you're disagreeing on that, correct me if I'm wrong.

As you said, we'll find out soon enough who's right on this, and I'm more than willing to admit it if it happens. I respect your opinion regardless, you were one of the few who was calling the last collapse back in '07 along with marg, Obe1, myself and a few others. Remember old LightInDarkness?
Man that guy was a riot, reminds me alot of GBM!

I'm not always the best communicator on some of what I'm trying to convey in print so bear with me as I try to discover the points where I haven't correctly understood or conveyed my meaning.



posted on Sep, 5 2010 @ 11:44 AM
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Yet another article in www.telegraph.co.uk that seems to me to imply that those who see further serious and sustained troubles ahead for US, Europe and Japan economies are gaining more widespread academic support:

"No defence left against double-dip recession, says Nouriel Roubini" by "Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor in Cernobbio, Italy Published: 9:49AM BST 05 Sep 2010".

link to article (althougfh sometimes they change the location)



posted on Sep, 5 2010 @ 03:25 PM
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reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar
 


Speaking just about the dollar, yes, inflation is the devaluing and deflation is the increasing value of the Dollar.

Speaking economically devaluing the Dollar (inflation) without wage increase means your Real Wage is deflating .. thus you have less money to spread over expenses (this is what killed the housing market after 2000-2007 the value of the Dollar dropped nearly 30% and wages did not grow) .....

I think we are talking about two different things entirely.. you are concerned about the Dollar.. I am concerned about what the Dollar means to the Economy. The words "inflation deflation" would apply different meanings, because depending on the scenario as a whole it changes the entire outcome for the economy in general.



posted on Sep, 5 2010 @ 06:56 PM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 

Yes, I agree completely with what you're saying about inflation not happening in wages at the same time as it has in goods.

Now, the fed has in fact doubled the money supply since the crisis. I think we would agree that if it had been put into the publics hands then we would have seen a doubling in prices. In fact, with the fractional reserve lending practices of our banks it could have been far more. But, since it was given to the banks which own it (the fed) to offset insolvent balance sheets, it has done nothing except accrue interest from the taxpayer. (Nice huh, take our money and charge us interest on it?)

So, the money given out so far has done nothing except sit. Now the thing I'm focusing on is the potential that the banks themselves may at some point become fearful of the govt debt that they hold as collateral and begin dumping it along with china and everyone else.

Because they refuse to put the printed money into the hands of the public, they are creating the deflationary scenario of which you speak. The problem I see is their tax revenues are collapsing at the same time. Which in turn makes them have to 'borrow' more. So, my question is, 'where does it end?' When does everyone wake up and see that an entity that has a debt equal to all of its yearly earnings, a deficit of 10% more than it makes every year, and an aging population with no retirement laid aside, is not a good credit risk. Oh and that doesn't pay hardly any interest even in the inflationary environment it is creating through those same practices.

There are many 'pins' I believe that could pop that bubble and I'm not laying odds on what it'll be. But that which cannot go on, will not.

Another point that I'd like to throw out there is that inflation is still happening. Those who use the old pre-gov-gamed methods are showing pretty good inflation in the things we need. The 'deflation' in house prices I think should be viewed in the context of the massive inflation that went on for a decade in those same prices.

The Real economy is what pays the bill, not govt Debt. So I think the Debt will be defaulted on at some point and the best way to do that in their mind is to keep issuing Debt until someone cries foul and heads for the door, which then starts a stampede. The only difference between us and the PIIGS is confidence and there's no one big enough to bail us out if that confidence is lost for whatever reason.



posted on Sep, 5 2010 @ 07:52 PM
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reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar
 




Now, the fed has in fact doubled the money supply since the crisis.


Yeah, and the ultra rich and the corporate world have seen an unimaginable influx in liquid money supplies.. honestly, I don't think this has ever happened before, that a Reserve bank printed money at extraordinary levels for one specific group of people (and a very small group at that!) ... I swear, this whole "recession" is nothing but a huge experiment in economics .. how far can you stress a system before it snaps.

The other experiment is that technically the money was "replacing" money lost.. the derivatives like CDS on CDO were actual reserve balances.. once lost, voided or cashed the reserve is reset (because those notes were not technically real, but allowed over lending as long as they were "assets") ... so if you imagine the total wealth lost by banks, I don't think the banks really "made" anything at all. Hell, they'd still be posting quarterly losses if Congress didn't change the Mark to Market rule!

The whole system is fubar!



'where does it end?'


Well theoretically what they are doing is trying to stop a Deflationary Spiral (by printing money) .. but their trickle down economics was a joke, and "stimulus" was a pathetic attempt.. Bush had the closest idea to create direct inflation, print checks and send them to every family in the country .. but their actions now are to "indirectly" create inflation without it getting out of control.

I think the general consensus is they didn't do enough for the consumer.. they helped the rich and powerful, but forgot the economy rest on the shoulders of the Middle Class.. They've inadvertently set up another Deflationary Spiral and no one knows where that ends because it's never been stopped before. The only two in living memory was 1929-1940's and 2007, which was slowed (never stopped) by massive government spending of historic levels. The Great Depression, which was a Deflationary Spiral only stopped because a sudden surge in manufacturing due to the War.



The only difference between us and the PIIGS is confidence and there's no one big enough to bail us out if that confidence is lost for whatever reason.


Well we could always monetize the debt.. PIIGS couldn't do that, they gave their economic sovereignty to Brussels.. we however can turn the printing press on till there is no more debt.. but then, after the storm settles, no one would invest in us not to mention the wars that would follow...

I find it all very fascinating simply because nothing like this has ever happened before, on this scale anyways.



posted on Sep, 5 2010 @ 08:37 PM
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Well we could always monetize the debt.. PIIGS couldn't do that, they gave their economic sovereignty to Brussels.. we however can turn the printing press on till there is no more debt..

reply to post by Rockpuck
 


And my fear is that they will do exactly that. Which is of course a hyperinflationary scenario.

But as you said, the great depression was a case in which printing was not used. However, I think we should look at the fact that we went into it with a lot less debt and as the worlds largest creditor along with a personal debt load of about 2/3rds what we have this time.

Another interesting take is how the currency was devalued against gold when they confiscated it in '33. I think the price was doubled afterwards, which was a defacto 50% devaluation of the dollar. Which is really tame when compared with the fractional potential of what can happen with QE if it ever gets loose from the banks.




[edit on 5-9-2010 by HimWhoHathAnEar]



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