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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on Aug, 6 2010 @ 11:09 PM
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The deficit for July was a ``low`` of 59.4 billion...

Now the deficit for August this far, after only 5 days is already 73.1 billion...

Yeah the surplus we were supposed to have to meet the government deficit projection just went to the toilet...it's gonna be bad.

And about the Clinton ``surplus`` I just made the maths... yep, it's a lie.

From January 20, 1993 to January 20, 2001, the Clinton deficits amounted to 1.53 trillion.

Now... Obama will make a worse deficit than that... IN A YEAR.


Total deficit for fiscal year 2010 as of August 5 : 1.39 trillion. 56 days left at the current rate of 4.51 billion of new debt/day...252.7 billion...

Obama predicted a deficit of 1.17 trillion... and it will likely be around 1.64 trillion... Only 40% larger...no big deal right?


It's not for nothing another economic adviser left the sinking ship.




posted on Aug, 6 2010 @ 11:46 PM
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reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar
 




Just like a dollar 'devaluation' which sounds to many like a deflationary event is actually an inflation of the currency.


This would depend on the nature of the cause. Printing excessively, or increasing access to money at the base level of the economy would lead to "Dilution" .. However, if it is a drop in economic productivity that leads a decline in a currency, it will devalue and it will be simple Deflation -- Not Inflation of the currency.

Indeed, it is confusing to see the differences, but essentially the Government has done everything in it's power short of increasing denomination notes to cause purposeful inflation.. but it has failed..



The main problem I see is the ongoing deficit.


No.

1. Our Government cannot and will not "default" .... we can monetize debt?

2. It is not the most pertinent problem, the biggest problem is unemployment, which decreases the production of the economy and the consumption of the base level of the economy... because of this, it will decrease the power of the Dollar (based on economic productivity) and the overall price of goods .. since people are more frugal, and people have less to spend..

The deficit, albeit a sad case, is the least of our worries at the moment.



posted on Aug, 7 2010 @ 12:10 PM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 

Gotta disagree with ya there. As I said before, printing money/monetizing debt/devaluing currency is all the exact same thing as 'defaulting' on your debts. If I make the paper that I'm paying you with worth only half as much as it was yesterday, you ain't gonna like it if I pay you the same amount today for your labor as I did yesterday. So saying that we can't default on our debt because we can create more debt (through money printing) is meaningless. It's Default by any other name.

As far as the deficit goes, I look at it like this: If I'm gonna default on debts within my household then I first have to make sure that I'm not going to need to borrow anymore money. Because I'm not going to be able to whether I like it or not! If I'm gonna default on my debt and plan on continuing to live 10% or more above my income then I have a very rude awakening coming.

Edit to add: I forgot to respond on employment. I agree that if (within my household) I can get a better paying job I can address my over (deficit) spending. I just don't see the govt doing anything close to repatriation of jobs and reduction of taxes. Without which capital will continue to flee. So under those circumstances, we are trapped within the parameters of our current income. Or as we contract under a deflationary scenario even 'less' income.


[edit on 7-8-2010 by HimWhoHathAnEar]



posted on Aug, 7 2010 @ 12:28 PM
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I'm gonna disagree, too. Listen to what Mark Faber, Peter Schiff, Ron Paul, and many others are saying. They say quite clearly that the U.S. is on it's last leg, and the ongoing responses to the crisis of '08 will lead to an even bigger crisis and default 5-10 years from that point, putting it anywhere from 2013-2018. It means that we've got maybe 3 years left of this cycle before hyperinflation starts and collapse follows shortly after. The only thing left to do is to increasingly monetize the debt, which will lead to the end of the U.S.



[edit on 7-8-2010 by unityemissions]



posted on Aug, 7 2010 @ 02:12 PM
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reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar
 




Gotta disagree with ya there. As I said before, printing money/monetizing debt/devaluing currency is all the exact same thing as 'defaulting' on your debts.


indeed, this is called Monetizing Debt .. however, if economic deflation is greater than the amount printed, it's still deflation. As it is, the economy is shrinking and inflation is at extremely low levels. While the currency it's self may be "inflating" in that it takes more dollars to buy a certain good, average prices will still decline..

The United States (and probably Europe) is facing Economic Deflation



If I make the paper that I'm paying you with worth only half as much as it was yesterday, you ain't gonna like it if I pay you the same amount today for your labor as I did yesterday.


Three things define "paper money" (and Gold as a Currency as well actually)

1. Demand. If there is no demand for your currency, it devalues, if there is, it's appreciates in accordance with the ratio of demand and supply. As of now, there is high demand for Dollars with high inflation of the monetary base -- it devalues.

2. Economic Production (larger than demand) if the US Economy is not producing, the value of the Dollar will decline, currencies such as the Dollar and Euro are strongly related to GDP (especially the Euro) .. GDP growth is slow to minimal, and will probably be negative within 2 quarters .. this is Deflation..
3. Supply at CONSUMER LEVEL True inflation that you see in Germany or Zimbabwe has all to do with the Consumer.. if the monetary base is increased at the lowest level of the economy, money is readily available, natural laws of economics dictates prices rise accordingly .. thus you get hyper inflation.

If you increase the monetary base at the highest level (banks, large corporations etc) the only way to experience true "inflation" is if the corporations that horde the money spend it all, loan it all, or find some other way of circulating it.. other wise, it's effects on the actual economy is minimal to none. This is how the US Gov can print trillions of Dollars and the economy still deflates.

Has nothing to do with Deficits.. and it certainly has nothing to do with "defaults" -- essentially.. what you say makes no sense.

For starters, Government debt is not like "household debt" ... It's like Corporate Debt.. few businesses operate on "cash alone" .. the vast majority rely on loans, credit, and revolving debts. Debt in and of it's self is not a bad thing.. the biggest problem with the US Debt is that eventually as payment is due, it will take a larger portion of the budget to pay.. then, and only then, does there become a problem, to which the Government would either monetize (ponzi) the debts, or increase taxes. I'd bet they do both. But be that as it may, this alone will not inflate the currency and or economy.

Deflation is our concern.

Not Inflation.



posted on Aug, 7 2010 @ 02:17 PM
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reply to post by unityemissions
 


ultimately that's right.. there will come a time when the US will either monetize all debt or go bankrupt .. but it will have to be at a point when the debt's interest and principle out pace our ability to pay, which would have to be massive.. I personally don't see that happening within a few years.. within a few decades perhaps, I'd personally guess over 100 years. Unless of course.. the economy deflates at an increased pace which would ultimately lead to a 1930's style depression (Deflationary Spiral) .. which will cut the already hurt budget from further revenue cuts. Actually, this is why I think they have increased taxes so much over the next 5 years.. they expect some serious problems within the economy. Either way, a countries ability to pay debt is based on revenue, which is based on economic performance. If the economy deflates, the revenue is decreased, and the ability to pay is cut. Inflation is direct monetization of the entire currency, rendering debts worth less than when issued, though it is also seen that during period of high inflation, interest rates are typically very high (1980's double digit interest rates for example)...




posted on Aug, 7 2010 @ 02:35 PM
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The thing you're missing is that cases of hyperinflation in history have always been MONETARY EVENTS, NOT econonomic ones. They are always preceded by a loss of confidence in a currency, which is a direct result of debasement of that currency, which is a direct result of unpayable debt created by a nation living above its means. The world will not end if the dollar falls.

You seem to be slightly confused about how this is playing out. Maybe give the Billionaires a listen like Faber who have made their fortunes and thus proven their understanding. Oh, and who called the last round, like Schiff. No offense but I'll listen to them before some random guy on the internet.



posted on Aug, 8 2010 @ 08:49 AM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


Get ready, because before anything else or the "nuclear option" the government is going to tax us to death.

Yes once the tax brake for the rich expired we all are going to get tax along with the rich or how else the government is going to pay for the mammoth HCR and the millions that will be ridding the Medicaid.

America no longer have a healthy middle class to support the nation

Thanks to globalization Americas middle class is almost decimated.

When manufacturing the once bread and butter of the nation now account for only 12 percent of US jobs anything else is either government or service jobs.

Our trade deficit has been on going since 1975 and growing, Americans can not save money anymore.

Then you have morons in Washington that think giving away tax payer money to subsided jobs in foreign countries is a good idea while killing the work force in the US once the tax payer foreign trained workers compete with American ones

We have traitors in our own government and they don't give a crap about America work force because they are enriching their dirty pockets with foreign money.



posted on Aug, 8 2010 @ 12:21 PM
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reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar
 


Simple fact of the matter though is that you cannot have hyper inflation without CONSUMERS being inflated.. that is to say, for instance, they stop printing $10 bills and only 100, 1000, and 10000 bills. This is what happened in Germany and Zimbabwe.. prices inflate accordingly and the currency dies. As it is, even with the Government printing like mad, wages are stable or declining (middle class) and the over all credit has declined (massively) as well as unemployment taking hundreds of billions out of the economy. Deflation.



posted on Aug, 8 2010 @ 12:22 PM
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reply to post by marg6043
 


I wish it wasnt so.. but sadly, all true..



posted on Aug, 8 2010 @ 01:50 PM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 

That would be a view strictly from the US perspective. The causes of a loss in faith in a currency have to do with it's viability to other nations, its 'creditors'. Having reserve currency status was an awesome authority, but it was an even greater responsibility. The dollar is spread throughout the world and when a currency is rejected it has only one place to go. We don't need to create inflation, it's already out there in spades. All that is required is a loss in confidence. That confidence is erroding by the day as more and more people wake up to the fact that america is broke and needs to borrow 1.5-2 Trillion a year just to maintain status quo. That SS can no longer be used to cover up debt because it doesn't create a surplus anymore to rob, it has flipped to requiring more debt to pay claims. That we are the largest debtor nation in WORLD HISTORY! That the govt will tax what's left of the golden goose to death.

The federal deficit is no longer an abstract long-term problem; it's a financially critical freight train coming down the track at alarming speed. Here's a dramatic way to look at it: As of last week's second-quarter report, nominal GDP was only $100 billion higher than it was back in the third quarter of 2008. So the nominal GDP has been growing at only $4 billion per month, while new Federal debt has been accumulating at around $100 billion per month. Yes, this period represents the worst of the so-called Great Recession -- but never in history has the Federal debt grown at a rate of 25x GDP for two years running!
www.minyanville.com...
So our debt has been accumulating at 25X's the rate of our income. If that was your household, what would you surmise? Do you think your creditors wouldn't notice that your debt was going parabolic? I bet the first thing you'd do is cut up your credit cards and then decide how to default on what you obviously can't pay.
Under your scenario we don't have to deal with defaulting because we can kite checks. We have a check printer on our xerox. How long would that last with your creditors?
The worst part is the govt isn't cutting up the credit cards, they're trying to apply for more! The first DECLINED that we get back and the world finds out about is the day confidence is lost. Then there will be more dollars than anyone wants or knows what to do with and the only answer will be to print more.



posted on Aug, 8 2010 @ 04:18 PM
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The FINAL COUNTDOWN has begun. And by final countdown to what, it's the final countdown before people riot in the streets.

NO PENSIONS ARE GONNA BE PAID.

Page 2


* Unfunded pension liabilities are approximately $2.5
trillion, compared to the reported amount of $493 billion.

* Unfunded liabilities for health and other benefits are
$558 billion, compared to the reported $537 billion.

* Thus, total unfunded liabilities for all benefit plans are an
estimated $3.1 trillion — nearly three times higher than
the plans report.


Those numbers are insane. They lied on such a scale it's insane.

To explain clearly from the same link..

To put these liabilities in context, state and local govern-
ments’ reported unfunded obligations under pension and
other benefit plans amounting to 7.1 percent of U.S. gross
domestic product (GDP) in 2008. When adjusted using a
more appropriate discount rate, however, states’ unfunded
obligations were 22 percent of U.S. GDP. All but 10 states
and the District of Columbia have total adjusted unfunded
liabilities above 15 percent of their state GDP, and four states
— Alaska, Hawaii, New Jersey and Ohio — have adjusted
unfunded liabilities above 35 percent of their state GDP.

Now if those were to be paid, you know what that would mean? 3.1 trillion/year just to pay for pensions.

Total income for the US government in 2010 were around 2.38 trillion.


Now you take that + the deficit for 2010 : a deficit of 4.74 trillion or 33% of GDP in deficit!

I think no word exists in the english language or any language for that matter to explain how screwed the US is.

Pensions? What pensions?


[edit on 8-8-2010 by Vitchilo]



posted on Aug, 9 2010 @ 03:14 PM
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been a while

first thing i have to say is these damn equity markets will not crash! lol jk

global liquidity IS HIGH and that is keeping the stock markets churning higher .......or at least not crashing as fundamentals would spell out we should....but fundamentals NEED to be thrown out the window when global liquidity and stimulus and QE is in motion. Some people can't get that around there heads....it took me awhile! A crashing housing bubble in china may throw equities off course but i think more global QE can cushion that should it occur in ("tier 2 and tier 3 cities") cause tier 1's already fell about 30%.....

Austerity measures= crashed stock market and economic deep recession and even as greenspan surprising touts that this is what is needed the U.S and at least this next 2 years of puppets is hell bent on avoiding a deflationary spiral.......which appears to be a decent thing.

We are about 2-3 years away from a crash ......we will reach a time when more credit doesn't do the trick......more debt won't help.....but since we borrow in dollars and can QE in dollars as well as hold off high inflation since banks aren't lending these new $$$ can flow into assets.....(just as the fed wishes....these folks are smart)......they can kick the can for a couple more years and that is what will occur UNLESS for some reason unknown to me or what i follow these days......the bilderberg group pushes austerity measures .....

but global liquidity and asian growth is the key to north american equity performance ....not the U.S economy ....this has become CRYSTAL CLEAR.



posted on Aug, 10 2010 @ 02:30 AM
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Got an update for you Vitchilo and others.


In bosnia the only things that are keeping the country are the cafe and bars, clubs, shops and other business are down.

The blame for the corruption is islam, since after the war they promised the people they would bring jobs and start making jobs, but they didn't.

Once again people have been duped.



posted on Aug, 10 2010 @ 06:07 AM
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Labor Theory


The cheapest labor

Is the one powered by

Promises



dd



posted on Aug, 10 2010 @ 11:20 AM
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U.S. Stocks Set to Fall On Overseas Market


Wall Street opened the week with gains finishing off a strong day Monday on markets around the world. There was very little data or news on the financial front yesterday. This led investors to create gains largely based on optimism alone. The NASDAQ led the charge with a 0.75 percent (17.22 points) jump; followed closely by the S&P 500 (0.55 percent, 6.15 points) and the Dow Jones (0.42 percent, 45.19 points).

Unfortunately the outlook for most of the day today is not so rosy. Investors rode a wave from overseas yesterday. Today they are expected to ride that same wave, but this time in the opposite direction.


I had not clue that now traders are betting on optimism that is how low the markets had fallen in this economic times



posted on Aug, 11 2010 @ 02:23 PM
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Cutting food stamps... to fund Obama voters... I meant teachers and union workers...

If this isn't buying votes... I don't know what is... AND THEY ARE TAKING THE MONEY FROM THE FOOD STAMPS FUND... which numbers are growing daily!

Some Democrats are upset and advocacy groups are outraged over the raiding of the food-stamp cupboard to fund a state-aid bailout that some call a gift to teachers and government union workers.

That's sick if you ask me.

The U.S. dollar slid to a 15-year low against the yen Wednesday, dragged down by the anemic recovery in the world's biggest economy.
I'm sure somehow it's a sign of recovery...



posted on Aug, 11 2010 @ 02:41 PM
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reply to post by Vitchilo
 


Can you believe that? Obama pay off to his biggest supporters, the unions.

When the food stamp program thanks to unemployment and low income jobs (mostly service jobs) are the biggest recipient of this programs and growing.

But hey Medicaid is also been funded and that is no even considering that the HCR will add more numbers to the ranks too.


Why no cutting the pension funds and separation allowance of the rich and wealthiest CEOs of big banking institutions and in the corporate world to pay for social programs



posted on Aug, 11 2010 @ 02:51 PM
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Markets Slump on Economic Outlook


The outlook for today is not much better. Stocks futures fell drastically during the overnight hours and global market momentum are decidedly downward on the day.

Yesterday the primary pressure was from the Federal Reserve, today it comes from overseas. According to CNNMoney.com, slow growth in China and a weak economic outlook from the Bank of England have equated to a run on investments today. Despite systemic gains for the past several months investors cannot overcome their day-to-day fears about economic growth.


www.economyincrisis.org...

Yes, the markets are been emotional today all around the world, still the so call "economy recovery" will run in the slogans of politicians this mid term elections. . .



posted on Aug, 11 2010 @ 08:17 PM
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Yep it's truly sick...

But something weird happened today...

The July deficit calculated from the Treasury own numbers is 59 billion...

And the news and even the FMS reported a July deficit of 165 billion... what the hell?

Since when the news and the government are reporting WORSE NUMBERS THAN REALITY?

Something is afoot.


Prechter: The Last Time The Market Looked Like This Was Right Before The '87 Crash
Time to panic.

ON CNN? :
Is this finally the economic collapse?
You know it's bad when CNN of all people is badmouthing Obama's recovery.


[edit on 11-8-2010 by Vitchilo]




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