The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by LieBuster


Let me state this really quick then go from there.

Too many people try to relate their personal view of the economy to the stock market. This hurts for 2 reasons, once I list them it will be easier for us to communicate.


1) People love to predominately use lagging economic indicators when choosing direction in the stock market.

- ex. - unemployment - and no I don't care what anyone says, even RP, because unemployment lags.


2) People do not understand that the best leading economic indicator we have is the USA Equity markets.

- ex. The markets forcast 6-18 months down the line. That is why analysts are always concerned about 2 qtr's ahead and also why when corp's report earnings the most important part is their guidance for 1-3 qtr's down the road.

- Good example recently would be IBM if you follow all the DJIA earnings reports as I do.


_________________________________________


So with that being said I don't care personally about any macro-micro nano- economic things that are in media etc. because the MARKET HAS ALREADY PRICED THAT INTO THE CURRENT VALUE OF THE INDEX OR SECURITY.

You may hear the term "Priced In" thrown around a bit, or if you do ever, this is what it is relating to (obviously).


_________________________________________


I really should only have to say 1 thing to make you bullish. Not one time in history has the market lost for 2 consecutive decades.

If the market goes down or flat for 1 decade, the next one makes up the lost one PLUS the next 10 years all in the next 10 combined.

Just let that soak in for a second.

Knowing that we can lay a lot of good groundwork.


But I have to leave it at that because I am going to be busy doing work until like 3am so if you are on then I will continue this post or whenever..

later

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Reminds me of when Jean Luc almost bitchslapped the hell out of that farangi asshole while he was on holiday.

Problem with those Farangi's is you just can't trust them any farther than you can throw them

reply to post by Rockpuck


Umm..

I have EUR USD Info from 1999

Was that based off something else then? I thought Euro was infact in play since 1999?

Anyway..

reply to post by Rockpuck


Well taking into consideration that US exports are bottom line compare imports I see who will be wining on this one.

Remember most of American economy rely in what we buy no on what we sell.

If history is any guide, there will be a brief rally in German banks, followed by a collapse of unknown duration. Politicians are not bigger than the markets, no one is.

www.marketoracle.co.uk...

Besides, Germany can't protect itself when it's on the hook for the piigs through the euro. If they pull out on the other hand, they could have one of the strongest currencies on the planet.

The first market to return confidence will clean house. The remaining who are buried in debt will fall hard.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


GBM I am wary of saying the markets price things in. First and foremost is because markets seem to be reactionary more than looking ahead in history hence why it CRASHES because it got way too euphoric even when the economy began to teeter off and perhaps shrink. Look at the dot com bubble...sure the internet was a nice thing and technology was getting along but the markets were pricing in scam companies that some kid began in a dorm room for hundreds of thousands-millions of dollars. That is just craziness. The markets can be incredibly neurotic so I am reluctant to say it is forward looking or is a fantastic predictor...

Also...you said when one decade is flat/a loss, the previous after that never is a loss. But how many decades have there been in the stock market? Not very many. Maybe like 13? There were probably only 2 decades that I can imagine where the markets were either the same or lower than the previous decade including the decade that just passed. Has there been more?



[edit on 18-5-2010 by MrDarlingFace]

Market chaos warning after German ban on shorting
www.telegraph.co.uk...

Traders are predicting chaos on the world's second-largest government bond market after the German authorities on Tuesday announced a ban on all naked short-selling in European public debt, as well as shares in the country's 10 largest financial institutions.

The unprecedented step saw the euro sink to a four-year low after Germany said that from midnight shorting of credit default swaps of any European government would be banned. The prohibition is an attempt to counter speculators that Berlin believes are trying to destabilise the region's sovereign bond market.

Traders greeted the move by BaFin, the German regulator, with a mixture of anger and astonishment. One bond trader said he expected Wednesday's trading session to be one of the most volatile in living memory: "It will be complete chaos, I really don't know what the Germans think they are doing."

reply to post by MrDarlingFace


Yes

There has been 72-82 I believe 32-42 and 56-66?

I am not looking at a chart but going by memory of djia historical chart lol

so don't quote me

But when you don't have anything else to turn to history is your only option.

I am sure it looked quite bleak as well during the energy crisis during the early 70's. Unfortuntely I wasnt around then. Maybe someone else could fill us in.

I dont know what else I was going to say I have been fighting with IB all night about their garbage API and I am about ready to throw this computer through a window.

later

Oh yeah.. market crashes

Well that is just psychology

When you believe something is priced in, it's priced in meaning the market is at the exact number it should be when all relevant information is available to all participants equally at one time.

So if it is down 1000 points, then it is obviously fairly priced for that microsecond in history.

A lot of people don't buy into the market being effectively efficient at all times.

Well besides this flash crash bull# IMO it always is because if it is not then you have the ability to lift the offer or sweep this bids. That is if you command that sort of capital.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by MrDarlingFace

 

Yes

There has been 72-82 I believe 32-42 and 56-66?

I am not looking at a chart but going by memory of djia historical chart lol

so don't quote me

But when you don't have anything else to turn to history is your only option.

I am sure it looked quite bleak as well during the energy crisis during the early 70's. Unfortuntely I wasnt around then. Maybe someone else could fill us in.

I dont know what else I was going to say I have been fighting with IB all night about their garbage API and I am about ready to throw this computer through a window.

later

Oh yeah the world is going to go on. Everyone thinks their generation will see the end of the world. In 999AD there were a lot of suicides thinking Jesus would come back in 1000AD. We all remember Y2K when people didn't use their phones and thought the whole world would shut down. Just like when we were kids and thought there were monsters in the closet, adults think the world will end. Humans love to be scared so they can be taken out of the boring routine of life. Hence why people believe in God and what not and go to church, if they didn't they would go insane.

IB's customer service was pretty good but like I said before, I couldn't figure that platform out, I think it was Mt Trader. I also don't have the patience or focus to do so. However if I were to trade forex I would probably go through them as you can't trust many forex dealers and their sh*t software.

reply to post by MrDarlingFace


Dude, you don't even want to know what I have been put through with IB's API utter nonesense and just a simple confirmation fill with Sierra.

Enough to make you want to work at the gas station. I

I haven't slept in 25+ hours now.. Edit 35+

Getting like my late Forex days this past year haha

[edit on 19-5-2010 by GreenBicMan]

Anyway, I got like a million hours of work still ahead of me I gotta jet

But you know what is weird is that literally this god damn screen in front of me and my ever increasing fatter ass by the day is literally all I have.. I just thought of that..

I don't think I have left my house in 4-5 days.

It better be worth it

These "handles" that I converse with are literally my only friends left because I have abandoned everyone else in life trying to launch this #

I'm not healthy, not happy, and this is probably going to take enough years off my life where even if I do get rich Ill prob just either get hit by a car or get a heart attack.

KNOCK ON WOOD MANG

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Anyway, I got like a million hours of work still ahead of me I gotta jet

But you know what is weird is that literally this god damn screen in front of me and my ever increasing fatter ass by the day is literally all I have.. I just thought of that..

I don't think I have left my house in 4-5 days.

It better be worth it

These "handles" that I converse with are literally my only friends left because I have abandoned everyone else in life trying to launch this #

I'm not healthy, not happy, and this is probably going to take enough years off my life where even if I do get rich Ill prob just either get hit by a car or get a heart attack.

KNOCK ON WOOD MANG

That makes me sad. I don't have a fantastic life right now as I had to move away from the place I like but I am trying to get back on track with people, but you are young I assume from your picture. Just remember nobody EVER said they wished they worked another day on their death bed. Also the billionaire dying from cancer who loved life would give his whole fortune away if he could trade lives even with a poor young person. I hope you get what you want. For me being 'rich' isn't the objective. I just want freedom from obligations. I don't want to live to be old. And I'll just give my money away before I die as I won't spend it all, it is just a security blanket. I would be much happier to see a little homeless girl and her puppy on the street get a home than have a mansion and bentley.

reply to post by MrDarlingFace


I rather just not have to work for anyone for any "entity" again.

I sear to god I would move to Majorca tonight if was in the checking account. I could get use to that.

Nothing beats streets lined with rose gardens and flowers meandering through a cliff side. See you there

reply to post by GreenBicMan


I don't know if I would even be happy there. I have never been much of a happy person. It is what inside counts. Some people are very happy having a family and a 9 to 5 job and weekend camp outs. Some people are happy living in NYC as a very rich person. Some people are happy being farmers.

You have to ask yourself if you would truly be HAPPY or if it would just be really cool...for a while. I don't know if I will ever be truly happy, I hope I am. That's what I am in search of most.

Y'all sleep all night and the world burns down

The bottom just dropped out of the AUD & NZD...

JPY did a rocket shot...

Just plain ugly over the night...

In Bangkok, Thai Stock Exchange burnt down...

...

Red shirts, surrendered mostly peacefully as hundreds of government troops began tearing down their fortified rally base...

www.marketwatch.com...

Peacefully?



Together, with Germany's decision, could this mean "banking reform"?



[edit on 19-5-2010 by DangerDeath]

So Merkel came out and said the euro was in danger today...why would she say something like that unless she was intentionally trying to increase negative sentiment? She isn't naive and dumb.

I'm getting more wary. Something is afoot. I have no problem getting long, but right now I am just day trading with no real strong conviction.

Coincidentally, we begin to feel a stir about that curious "crash" in Smolensk. (It's about time... timing...)

On Wednesday, the head of the inter-state air committee, Tatyana Anodina, said the investigation had established "in the cockpit there were individuals who were not members of the crew".

news.bbc.co.uk...

Coincidentally, BP oil spill, might be what was predicted by the Web Bot (or is it really a Web Bot predicting?) - a Coastal Event... And Arizona immigration law and boycott (no need for Web Bot to predict that one and the consequences).



www.cnn.com...

With thousands of barrels of oil still spewing out of a damaged undersea well every day, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Tuesday that it was nearly doubling the portion of the Gulf's federal waters that are now closed to fishing. The restricted zone now pushes south and east into the heart of the Gulf -- another blow to a $2.4 billion industry already reeling from the nearly month-old spill.

"They'll have to go in somewhere else, probably around Galveston (Texas), instead of coming home," Abrams said. "That'll cause some problems, but it's better to be safe than sorry."

Is he talking about fish, fishermen or immigrants?

I'm confused

Well, not really.

reply to post by DangerDeath


Don't be sarcastic he means fisherman.

Does anybody care for oily and tar fish recipes.

Been born in an Island where fish is a main staple in our table I will miss fish very much.

Because I will be darn if any fish from US waters in the gulf and soon in the east coast will be safe.