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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 11:15 AM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


It is the latter of the two and we do know the rules. The way it works is as I stated above: Buy insurance on someone else's bad debt and then push that debt to default so you can collect. Same thing that happened to Lehman, AIG, etc and has now moved to sovereigns Greece, Portugal, etc. That's the 'Big Boys' method of cashing in at the casino.
Greed knows no bounds.




posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 11:44 AM
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I am wondering if a few of you stock market brainiacs would mind humoring me for a moment...

For fun, here at home I make stock market predictions. Despite the fact that I have been correct on several occasions, I do not have the nerve to actually put my money in there. It is for my and my families entertainment only. This next prediction I have made, I have checked and rechecked. It is really odd.

I am wondering if any of you would mind seeing if this can even happen or if there is anything that might even come close to validating this to be a possibility.

My prediction came up as the market will continue to climb until 12EST Friday. It will look really great at that point. Then, over the weekend it will all come down leaving us on Tuesday with numbers half of what it is/was 12Friday(tomorow).

As I said, I checked and rechecked myself and I am puzzled. Is this even possible?



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 11:46 AM
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reply to post by mrsdudara
 


Ask Greenbicman he seems to have sold his soul to be able to look into the future. I think he might be a witch.



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 11:56 AM
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reply to post by mrsdudara
 


Be more specific and explain how you arrived at your hypothesis.

Also just FYI it is usually very hard, or I should say advanced level, to be calling very short term moves in indexes. Short term to me would be less than 2 weeks.



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 12:00 PM
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reply to post by Subjective Truth
 



On the flip side of that coin I have been subjected to a receding hairline and a broken hyundai so there is truly balance in life.



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 12:45 PM
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reply to post by mrsdudara
 


What do mean by 'half'? half of this weeks gains, or half the value of the market as a whole?

If you mean that it will give back half of this weeks gains, sure that happens frequently after a quick run-up, its profit taking.

If you mean the Dow going from 10,900 to 5450,in a afternoon, it simply can't happen, there are safeguards that basically shut the market down. It would take several days of buisness for the market to cut in half.

edit to add: markets aren't open on the weekend, so on Monday morning the open will be close to Fridays close. Excluding after hours trading

[edit on 25-3-2010 by jacksmoke]



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 12:46 PM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


You are right. I hate to go into details on how I arived at this. It is a bit embarassing for me. I dont use any math formulas or anything specific like that. I am sure you will think I am very silly. I observe people. Their habits, little things they do. I also observe the same kind of things on a more global level.

Little signs like the cigarett butts you see before you walk into a store. When a persons pocket is full of $$ they dont mind putting one out half way. BUT when a person is pinching pennies, they smoke it all the way down. They also do not buy any frivolous big $$ items. When everyone was still all ticked off about buying foreign oil, Ethanol was the obvious choice at the time and a few companies were more promising than the others. It was short term obviously because it just was not as easy as anyone hoped. When the prices go up on gas and oil, people will buy more winter boots and blankets but not coats for some reason. (used to be fur would go up in price) Ex. how much do ladies pay for a pair of uggs? There are several quirks I notice right now. What can I say, we all have our insanities, this is mine.

If I am wrong about anything it is about Tuesday. It might be bad on Tuesday, but it might not be half yet. And maybe I am a week or two premature at the most. I didnt just come up with this one recently. I have been waiting because I keep thinking/hoping I am wrong. And I might still be. BUT I am not able to disprove it yet.

When people get down on their luck, especially people who are accustomed to having $$ they are good for a while. They will downsize and play thrifty. BUT when the see that things are not looking up, right before they throw in their proverbial cards, they have one last good spending spree. It is that last bit of controll they have. It is easier to end a game on your own terms.

Now, a lot of these players do not play on their own. They have their own "teams". They kind of support each other. They pretty much all fall down together. So, the teammates who are still treading watter..the ones who were smart enough to not get in over their heads, will downsize, take what they have left and retire doing something fun. Like open a bar.

[edit on 25-3-2010 by mrsdudara]



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 12:49 PM
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reply to post by mrsdudara
 


Yeah, sorry man (or woman) but that isn't going to happen.

Leave the astrology type predictions to members like Aristocrat and such. Your short term luck in predicting market movement is nothing but luck unfortunately.

But it is pretty easy for the past year. You just push the BUY BUTTON. Then take in profits.

Like JS said, there are limits in place so market can't drop more than I believe something like 65 ES points, which only at most 5% of the market or something before we get locked up.

If you want to see some interesting price action like that look to the lumber market.



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 12:56 PM
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Sorry to break the flow. Some breaking news:

Franco-German deal reached over Greece's debts


France and Germany have reached a deal on a financing plan to help debt-laden Greece, which will include IMF help. Officials in Brussels say the package - yet to be agreed by other eurozone states - will total 23bn euros (£21bn).

The French presidency said there would be "very precise conditions" under which the 16 eurozone countries "could be led to intervene" to help Greece. Co-ordinated bilateral loans and IMF loans are envisaged. EU leaders are now poised to discuss the plan. News of the deal broke as leaders of the 27 EU member states gathered for a two-day summit in Brussels.

Diplomats say the eurozone leaders may hold an additional meeting on Thursday evening to discuss how to help Greece.

So far the eurozone has avoided seeking an IMF loan for Greece, preferring a European solution and anxious to maintain global confidence in the euro...


It still sounds somewhat tentative, but it should be enough to increase confidence in the Euro, at least for the time being.



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 01:01 PM
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reply to post by pause4thought
 


Good find, S&F. I just read a article yesterday stating that the Germans weren't sure if bailing out Greece was constitutional. So, the German population may not like this and I guess we will have to wait and see what the "very precise" rules are and how the Greek population will take to whatever new austerity measures are gonna be implemented



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 01:07 PM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


I am a woman.


Originally posted by GreenBicMan

Leave the astrology type predictions to members like Aristocrat and such.


That is very rude and arrogant of you. I did not ask you for your opinion on how I came about my predictions. In fact, you are the one who asked.



Like JS said, there are limits in place so market can't drop more than I believe something like 65 ES points, which only at most 5% of the market or something before we get locked up.

If you want to see some interesting price action like that look to the lumber market.


This is the information I was looking for. Thank you for so kindly humoring me. I did already notice the lumber market, at least here localy.

For the record, it is absurd of you to think that the market does not reflect the habits and nature of people, or their financial responce to events.



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 01:11 PM
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reply to post by mrsdudara
 


I wasn't being rude. You can't forecast prices by looking at cigarette butts laying on the ground etc.

To tell you the truth I didn't even read the whole post because after I read that I quit reading. Like I said that sort of stuff is reserved for people like Aristocrat and others that foolishly believe they have found an edge in the marketplace when they don't even have a .00000000000000001% historical sample size to reference.

If I wanted to be rude I would have been. Please don't lecture me on the mechanisms that drive equity markets because it is not what you are thinking.



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 01:41 PM
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reply to post by jacksmoke
 


Ah just the brainiac I was looking for. Thank you. I do know that there is no trading on the weekends. However, if you decide to sell anytime after Thursday, it might not actually happen until Monday or Tuesday if they stop the market short on Monday is that right? I have family who play heavy in the oil, gas, and energy markets. They have mentioned that a few times.

So, the number is 5% for them to shut it down for the day? That seems quite low.

If the market was to hit 11,000 mark by midday tomorow afternoon, how many days do you figure it would take to fall to 61/2 or 7?



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 01:58 PM
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U.S. Markets: A Week of Inexplicable Events


You can excuse the average investor if, this week, he found himself and his thoughts drifting, perplexed and panicky. The inexplicable was found lurking everywhere starting with the normally spineless Democrats handing President Obama a historic legislative victory on healthcare reform, Sunday. Opponents feared that the $1 trillion price tag, and the disputable commandeering of 17% of the annual national budget was too ambitious, and that the increase in taxes necessary to cover an additional 32 million Americans health insurance would impede economic growth.

The stock market continued rising into the close; another inexplicable event occurred. Bloomberg reported that the 10-year US treasury swap spread closed negative for the first time ever. The negative spread widen on Wednesday accompanied by a below average 5-year treasury auction priced at a 2.605%. The 10’s and 30’s sold off by the close at 3.83% and 4.72%, respectively.

Another head-scratcher Wednesday was Pimco’s bond maestro Bill Gross comments on CNBC professing his affection for equities: “Let's suggest the economy looks good, that risk assets— whether it's high-yield bonds or whether it's stocks—have a decent return relative to the potential of declining bond prices," he said in an interview. "I'll go with the stock market."

We also learned what we already knew when S & P lowered Portugal’s credit rating, that the western world is broke. Before I forget, this day also included Google (GOOG) and Go Daddy quitting China, the US accusing China of currency manipulation, and financial regulation reform disappearing into a Washington DC black hole.

But enough about inexplicably strange; let us return to good old-fashion butt-ugly economic data. Negative housing data again filled the landscape pointing towards a funky economy in 2010 for the average citizen. February new home sales fell 2.2%, to an annual rate of 308,000. Two years ago, the annual rate was above 600,000 homes. Supply swelled to 9.2 months while the median price of a home rose 6.1% to $220,500 and the average price up 5.1% to $282,600. The first-time home buyer tax credit ends in five weeks.

Finally, the US Census Bureau, 2009 State Government Tax Collection Data was released. State revenue was down in 2009 versus 2008 some $66.9 Billion dollars. Fourteen states saw their tax revenue fall 10% or greater. The fourth quarter figures are available at the end of March


______beforeitsnews/story/27674/U.S._Markets:_A_Week_of_Inexplicable_Events.html



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 04:21 PM
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reply to post by mrsdudara
 



FOR SP 500 FUTURES

Regular Day Hours: Successive 10%, 20%, 30% limits (downside only)

Extended (overnight): 5% up or down



EQUITIES, NYSE, NASDAQ

If the Dow falls 1,100 points before 11 a.m. PDT, trading is halted for one hour.

If the Dow falls 1,100 points between 11 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. PDT, trading is halted for 30 minutes.

After 11:30 a.m. PDT (with 90 minutes left in the trading day), the Dow could continue to decline past 1,100 points and no halt would be called until it fell 2,200 points.

A Dow drop of 2,200 points any time after 11 a.m. would close the markets for the rest of the day.



So to answer your question futures are slightly different than equities.

To my knowledge THERE IS NO LIMIT UP OR DOWN FOR NASDAQ. The SEC can also halt a SINGLE EQUITY STOCK for up to 10 days or 2 weeks I think if there is something fishy going on.



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 04:34 PM
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Originally posted by mrsdudara
reply to post by jacksmoke
 


Ah just the brainiac I was looking for. Thank you. I do know that there is no trading on the weekends. However, if you decide to sell anytime after Thursday, it might not actually happen until Monday or Tuesday if they stop the market short on Monday is that right? I have family who play heavy in the oil, gas, and energy markets. They have mentioned that a few times.

So, the number is 5% for them to shut it down for the day? That seems quite low.

If the market was to hit 11,000 mark by midday tomorow afternoon, how many days do you figure it would take to fall to 61/2 or 7?


Wasn't trying to be disrespectful, but I make a habit of assuming not everyone knows how the markets work or when they work, The US market is open M-F 9-4 except holiday, I think the after hours markets are open 2 hours after and 2 hours before.

trades are executed immediately, (thank you HAL 9000), but they don't settle for three days. That is, the money has to be in the sellers bank account. The price of the trade is time stamped to the second the order is placed, so any flucuations in price will be noted immediatley.

Commodities, such as your relatives play in, may have different rules, as to trade dates, contracts and settlement options. Not familiar with that world.

I will have to get out the books to calculate how much time will be required to pass for the market to drop by half, its been a long time since I took that liscenseing exam. Be back shortly



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 04:38 PM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


Thank you for saving me the time GBM.

As for stopping tradeing on a individual stock look up KOSS and read the news articles. Big-time embezzlement, Trading was halted for a number of days.



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 04:50 PM
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reply to post by jacksmoke
 


They all usually have a good story.

DNDN rings a bell. That was interesting about 8 months ago when all the sudden it dropped like $18 got halted, then opened up higher than it was before the drop!

LOL

Then to top it some guy on the yahoo message boards gave a warning of a bear raid on DNDN 15 minutes before it happened.

Some say it was an obvious call bc these things happen in biotechs before FDA releases info, but others were calling for his head and writing the SEC and NASDAQ when they all got stopped the f'out and then it reopened higher.

Turns out NASDAQ LET ALL TRADES STAND. Meaning if you are a true big money syndicate and know where all the liquidity is you can "game" the market legally. Pretty impressive actually, I give them a lot of credit for executing that.



posted on Mar, 25 2010 @ 06:11 PM
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www.abovetopsecret.com...

possibly the most important post you'll ever read..

"Social Security, Medicare, Interest On The Debt Will Gobble Up Every Single Tax Dollar By 2020"



posted on Mar, 26 2010 @ 12:08 AM
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reply to post by mrsdudara
 


Take heart mrsdudara. As you know , there are no fail-safe systems , but interestingly , Arch Crawford has proven to be one of the best market timers for over 3 decades using a proprietary blend of astrology and technical analysis (heavy on planetary influences). A [surprisingly] large number of professionals quietly subscribe to his service , but not many speak to it publicily...which explains why Crawford Perspectives isn't a household name outside of the pro trading circuit.


dharma notes: Arch Crawford’s track record has an accuracy of somewhere around 85% and he has been ranked #1 stock market timer out of a field of 500 investment newsletters multiple years by Hulbert’s Digest since he started publishing in 1977.

Full Text


Whether you're throwing the bones , or reading chicken entrails...it sounds like you're having fun mrsdudara



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