The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Albert Edwards On Max Keiser: At 500% Net Liabilities To GDP, It Is Too Late To Prevent The Collapse Of The G-7; Greece Is Irrelevant, We Are All Now Insolvent .



This thing ain't working!

[edit on 18-3-2010 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by sligtlyskeptical


I wasn't inferring it was going down, just consolidating if you look at the chart

my target is still 1250-1350 on SP this year then we go rangebound till end of year prob 1350-1150 range

EDIT: That was a few days ago btw, we have taken out those levels by far

[edit on 18-3-2010 by GreenBicMan]

Wharton: If Spain Goes Down, The ENTIRE Global Economy Is In Trouble

Wharton is warning markets to keep a very close on Spain right now. That’s because while a Greece or Portugal financial melt down might be manageable, a Spanish one could have massive negative repercussions for both Europe and the global economy.

This is due to the massive size of both Spain’s economy and debt:

If Spain fails to execute a credible plan to cut its budget deficit, the worries over sovereign solvency will spread quickly beyond the small, peripheral countries currently making the most headlines, experts warn. A Spanish default could herald the breakup of the euro and a rise in retaliatory protectionism around the world.

According to an analysis by consultants at McKinsey, the sum of Spanish government, corporate and household debt relative to the size of the overall economy surpasses all developed countries except the U.K. and Japan. Correcting the imbalance has grave implications for the public purse.

For that reason, observers worry about Spain’s ability to service its debts. Bailouts of Greece and Portugal, if necessary, would be “not inconsequential but manageable,” according to Witold Henisz, a professor of management at Wharton. The EU-led rescues would probably knock tenths of percentage points off of European growth, he adds. It’s a different story with Spain.

The need for a Spanish bailout could drop us into a second phase of the global financial crisis, one where the euro could end and the world could entrench into deadly trade-destroying protectionism:

Italy, for example — facing default as they became unable to fund budget deficits. The viability of the euro currency would come into question, as the union’s stronger members could eventually refuse to prop up weaker members and decide that their destiny would be better served by monetary independence. Spanish officials’ lashing out at indistinct foreign culprits is a precursor of what to expect, Henisz says. The risks of a “spiral into protectionist isolationism” would rise. “Political parties that espouse nationalism and xenophobia could get some serious purchase under these conditions.”

“95% of Spanish mortgages are variable rate”

Wut? Spain is screwed and so are we.

Time for panic sex!

[edit on 18-3-2010 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by Vitchilo


Spain?

Massive economy?

Come on Vitt, no way mang'.

Yeah it's only 7% of the European Economy. Still, Spain and Greece failing would mean to investors that the other PIIGS will fail too, that means no good investment...

Let's add the GDPs of the PIIGS countries... it all adds up to 3.289 trillion and 130.3 million people. Or 26.29% of EU GDP and 26.16% of the population.

Now if you add the UK into this...because let's be real here, they are in trouble...40.8% of EU GDP and 38.39% of the population...

Can you imagine if states representing 40% of the US GDP were to fail? Yeah I'm sure people would like to invest in the US... same thing for the EU.

Also when you have 38% of your population pissed off with no future prospects, you have big troubles on your hands.

Norway, Japan, France and many others are going down the drain too. This ain't over by a long shot.

If we're out of this within 5 years I'll be impressed.

So I think this guy analysis is correct.

Also the new GEAB analysis...
Here

A sign of the times : Merkel wants option of excluding members from euro zone

The only ones left at the end of it will be Germany and a few others...

[edit on 18-3-2010 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by Vitchilo


Greece isn't going to "fail". It never was. They have already drafted the plan apparently for Greece anyway but only top $ people I am sure are privy to the exact specs so they can cover or do what they have to do in currency markets. All they are doing is "rescheduling" debt. The rest has just been posturing. I have been falling behind on all that so correct me where I am wrong.

Anyway, regarding the real situation at hand any negative news from their side continues to make us stronger, day after day USA keeps looking better and better so that's good for us I suppose.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Dang GBM...yer like Cramers' Step-Son or agent?

BTW: SEC is looking into THE STREET.COM...

I'm still on the same track....a head on collision...




[edit on 3/19/2010 by Hx3_1963]

This is the last trading day before Spring Equinox. The power of darkness will be giving way to the power of light. No wonder the Leftists are pushing for a quick vote.

They have made the most of their dark days of winter. This winter was awful! The whole country has felt miserable since this Obama guy came around with his commie friends. I've never been so happy to see winter end.

Let's see what the home team can do next week. This DJIA rally has lasted six weeks. A huge market plunge right now would go a long way towards re-educating the population.

Yeah GBM, you're Cramer's nephew or something... great joke.

We like you GBM... so much youthful optimism...

Caterpillar Inc said on Monday that quarterly earnings fell more than 32 percent and warned of a tough year ahead as the downturn that began in the United States metastasized into a full-blown global recession that hit sales of its earth-moving equipment.

The company also warned that profit in 2009 would be under severe pressure and said that it would cut about 17,000 workers and buy out 2,500 others, to reduce costs in the face of what it predicted would be the weakest year for business since the end of World War Two.

Yeah recovery is here... NOT... and it ain't in China either.

And Goldman Sachs, the traitors, just said the Yuan is poised to become the new reserve currency... Yeah Goldman, you sure know what you're talking about since you engineered our crash to a large extent.

Yuan Poised to Become Reserve Currency, Goldman’s O’Neill Says

Work for the man? Don't pay income taxes!

Maybe good news...

Federal Reserve Must Disclose Bank Bailout Records

Time for someting big to happen to cover this up? Like passing the healthcare bill or a terrorist attack?


A letter Thursday to President Barack Obama and members of Congress signed by more than 130 economists predicted the legislation would discourage companies from hiring more workers and would cause reduced hours and wages for those already employed.

Now I'm gonna go back to sleep, I'm too depressed.

[edit on 19-3-2010 by Vitchilo]

An article about PPT on mainstream medias!

What or Who is Driving up Prices?

The chart below illustrates the government's bailout track record; clearly not impressive. It seems like Washington D.C. has found a different kind of bailout. Ronald Reagan established the platform for this different bailout in 1988.

On March 18, 1988, Ronald Reagan signed Executive Order 12631. Below is an excerpt from Executive Order 12631 - Working Group on Financial Markets - Mar. 19, 1988; 53 FR 9421, 3 CFR, 1988 Comp., p. 559:

'By virtue of the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and laws of the United States of America, and in order to establish a Working Group on Financial Markets, it is hereby ordered as follows:

Section 1. Establishment. (a) There is hereby established a Working Group on Financial Markets (Working Group). The Working Group shall be composed of:

1) the Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee;

2) the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or his designee;

3) the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or his designee; and

4) the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or her designee.

Section 2. Purposes and Functions. (a) Recognizing the goals of enhancing the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our Nation's financial markets and maintaining investor confidence.

This quartet has become known as the Plunge Protection Team (PPT).

I'm impressed by the MSM!

And from an article I've seen in the Greek press, there's rumors that the government has started printing drachmas again.

EDIT : Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich: Economic Recovery is a Government "Sham"
Yep.

EDIT 2 : India Raises Interest Rates for First Time Since 2008 (Update3)

Recovery in India?

Nope. Big inflation.

India’s central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates for the first time in almost two years, saying controlling price-gains has become “imperative’ after inflation accelerated to a 16-month high.

EDIT 3 : Unemployment rates in 363 U.S. metropolitan areas rose in January, and 346 areas reported year-on-year declines in their number of jobs, the Labor Department said on Friday
Recovery again!

BTW GBM, if you see Cramer at your next family party, please tell him that he's full of it. And that before his show is shown there should be a warning saying that ``everything you're about to see is FICTION``...

[edit on 19-3-2010 by Vitchilo]

the last few pages of this thread has soo much information. i love this thread.

While President Obama travels across America to promote his plan to transform health care into a nationwide entitlement, tens of thousands of Greek citizens riot in the Athens streets. They are protesting spending cuts and tax hikes implemented by their government in response to a severe debt crisis. While these two events may be occurring on opposite ends of the Earth, the press might as well cover them together, because they are both part of the same story. The only difference between the two is the timeline — America is on the verge of adding to its collection of entitlement programs while the Greek economy has already been broken by them.

breezejmu.org...

here's my calling the close of the DOW, usually before 9:00AM of the day
before the market even opens...
Is there anyone else playing this contest for fun? These results should not
be construed as my having a real grasp of market activity, i just type in
numbers i favor at the moment... like today i guessed 10,748.59 & i was ~8+ points off....but there were still 640 guesses closer than mine was.


link to game:
calltheclose.cnbc.com...


(my running results)
DATE YOUR RANK

03-19-2010-# 640

by GBM
All they are doing is "rescheduling" debt.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


You're exactly right about that. Alot of Debt Rescheduling going on.......reason is...no one can pay. And as you may know, when you 'reschedule' Debt, it costs you. So not only can you not pay the outstanding Debt, but you're adding additional Debt. It is very complicated, isn't it?

Holy cow, have you seen the FDIC failed bank list? They've just added 7 more today


www.fdic.gov...

7 banks will cost 1.28 billion to the FDIC, meaning the taxpayers.

I hope you saved 5$ this week for the FDIC otherwise you're not a good slave!

Greece is a mess:

Taxi drivers and gas station workers are the latest groups to join strikes in Athens after doctors' strike yesterday in protest against the government's payments and benefits cuts and new taxes.

The drivers are protesting against new tax proposals, due to become law imminently, which will require them to issue receipts and pay tax on their income, while gas station workers say higher taxes are driving their customers into neighboring Bulgaria for cheaper gas, local media reported.

A strike by doctors is also reportedly spreading to other parts of the country, with “many” hospitals in the capital operating with emergencies staffs only.

Power cuts have also been reported as employees of the country's power sector went on strike over salary cuts and freezes on employment, the United Press International (UPI) reported.

Radio technicians are also reportedly planning a day-long walkout today.

www.presstv.ir...

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou warned on Friday his country was one step from being unable to borrow and appealed to labor unionists to support his efforts to escape a debt crisis shaking the euro zone.

www.reuters.com...

[edit on 19-3-2010 by TheCoffinman]

At 9:32AM Friday March 19, Marketwatch.com was reporting 176 million volume on the Dow.
After the market closed they were showing 434 million volume.
I find that interesting.
In two minutes 176 million shares traded, then it took six and a half hours to rack up the next 258 million.

I'm looking at another site now that is showing Dow volume 1,108 million. Yahoo doesn't even show volume. I don't like stuff like this. It is too hokey.



[edit on 20-3-2010 by Cabaret Voltaire]

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Wharton: If Spain Goes Down, The ENTIRE Global Economy Is In Trouble

Wharton is warning markets to keep a very close on Spain right now. That’s because while a Greece or Portugal financial melt down might be manageable, a Spanish one could have massive negative repercussions for both Europe and the global economy.

This is due to the massive size of both Spain’s economy and debt:

If Spain fails to execute a credible plan to cut its budget deficit, the worries over sovereign solvency will spread quickly beyond the small, peripheral countries currently making the most headlines, experts warn. A Spanish default could herald the breakup of the euro and a rise in retaliatory protectionism around the world.

According to an analysis by consultants at McKinsey, the sum of Spanish government, corporate and household debt relative to the size of the overall economy surpasses all developed countries except the U.K. and Japan. Correcting the imbalance has grave implications for the public purse.

For that reason, observers worry about Spain’s ability to service its debts. Bailouts of Greece and Portugal, if necessary, would be “not inconsequential but manageable,” according to Witold Henisz, a professor of management at Wharton. The EU-led rescues would probably knock tenths of percentage points off of European growth, he adds. It’s a different story with Spain.

The need for a Spanish bailout could drop us into a second phase of the global financial crisis, one where the euro could end and the world could entrench into deadly trade-destroying protectionism:

Italy, for example — facing default as they became unable to fund budget deficits. The viability of the euro currency would come into question, as the union’s stronger members could eventually refuse to prop up weaker members and decide that their destiny would be better served by monetary independence. Spanish officials’ lashing out at indistinct foreign culprits is a precursor of what to expect, Henisz says. The risks of a “spiral into protectionist isolationism” would rise. “Political parties that espouse nationalism and xenophobia could get some serious purchase under these conditions.”

“95% of Spanish mortgages are variable rate”

Wut? Spain is screwed and so are we.

Time for panic sex!

[edit on 18-3-2010 by Vitchilo]

I live in Spain and I don't know anyone that doesn't have a variable rate mortgage. Most change every 6 or 12 months, according to the current EURIBOR - my mortgage is EURIBOR plus 1% and changes every September. Over the last 3 years, my own mortgage has ranged from €630 to it's current €420 and there's no telling what it will be this September.

Unfortunately, a lot of people took on ridiculously high mortgages on properties that were highly over valued and those people are now walking away and moving back to their home countries - Brits, Dutch and German mainly. Most of southern Spain relied on the tourist industry and property sales to foreigners. There are many empty apartment blocks and half finished villas.

Add the corruption to the picture and real estate is a huge mess here now. Many people bought from developers, with bank guarantees but the developers have gone bust and the bank won't honour the guarantees. Some had local permission to build but didn't have approval from the Junta and those homes are now being bulldozed and people left still having to pay their mortgages. People buying those homes thought they were legal because all the paperwork and permissions were in order. Then there's the land grab where local government just takes people's land or homes for roads or whatever, with no compensation.

Insurance companies not paying up for the stupidest of reasons and a legal system that means you can't fight the insurance companies unless you have pots of money to do so - for the roof of our other house we had a quote for €4000 but the insurance won't pay. The lawyers wanted €5000 upfront to take it to court. The architect wanted €2000 to do a report to submit to the court - obviously that's more than the cost of the roof and would take 2 years to even get to court! So cheaper for us to just do the work and let the insurance company off the hook but then the local townhall wanted €6000 to give us permission to do the work!?! All we wanted to do was put back what was already there and expected to pay for regulations but not permission to put back what had already been there. It's not just buildings insurance either - it's all insurance here.I should point out that this all happens to Spanish citizens as well as foreigners.

The government's answer to getting out of this mess is to raise the pension age and, July, income tax is going up and IVA (sales tax/VAT) is going up too. It won't help - it will just make cash king again. One of the first things we noticed when we moved here, 6 years ago, was that everyone seemed to pay with cash rather than debit cards. Gradually more people were using debit cards but now it's swinging back the other way. With unemployment at almost 20% (under 25s is around 44%) people are returning to using cash a lot more.

We're undecided on whether to stay here. We have to consider what, if any, future there is for our children, if we stay. Our children want to stay because Spain is 'home' (our youngest has spent more than half his life here). At the moment we're ticking over with work because my husband is in the building trade and many properties have water damage from all the recent rain we've had. Most of our friends have left already and those that are still here are retired people with pensions so they don't need to find work. We have no chance of selling our home, in the current climate, so no idea what we'll end up doing. We're just about making ends meet and there's nothing left over to save for a move back to Britain anyway.

We'll see how things go when the taxes go up but I seriously think it's going to make the whole situation worse, rather than better.

From:

austin.bizjournals.com...

Anheuser-Busch sells theme parks, foreign breweries

Anheuser-Busch Cos.’ $52 billion takeover by Belgian brewing giant InBev was last year’s biggest deal.
This year, Anheuser-Busch was the biggest dealer.A-B InBev CEO Carlos Brito has moved quickly to pay down much of the $45 billion his company borrowed to help finance its purchase of the King of Beers. That has meant selling off several of the St. Louis company’s “non-core assets,” both here and abroad, to the tune of about $9.3 billion

[...]

+) Anheuser-Busch agreed to sell its South Korean beer business, Oriental Brewery,to an affiliate of New York-based private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. for $1.8 billion

+) followed in May with the news that Anheuser-Busch sold 19.9 percent of China-based Tsingtao Brewery Co. Ltd. to Asahi Breweries Ltd. of Japan for $667 million.
A few days later Anheuser-Busch agreed to sell its remaining 7 percent stake in Tsingtao, China’s second-largest brewer, to Chen Fashu, a Chinese national and private investor, for $235 million.


+) Anheuser-Busch reached an agreement to sell its 10 amusement parks to The Blackstone Group
Anheuser-Busch’s sale of its Busch Entertainment Corp. subsidiary was a matter of when, not if. Busch Entertainment operated SeaWorld parks in Orlando, Fla., San Antonio and San Diego; Busch Gardens parks in Tampa, Fla., and Williamsburg, Va.; Discovery Cove and Aquatica parks
in Orlando; Adventure Island in Tampa; Water Country USA Williamsburg; and Sesame Place in Langhorn, Pa.

With 25 million annual visitors, Busch Entertainment was the second-largest entertainment park operator in the United States...

+) Anheuser-Busch saved its largest deal for last. On Oct. 15, just a week after the theme park sale was announced, it agreed to sell its breweries in nine eastern European countries to CVC Capital Partners for as much as $3.03 billion...
the brewer’s operations in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Slovakia. CVC agreed to brew and distribute Stella Artois, Beck’s, Löwenbräu, Hoegaarden, Spaten and Leffe in these countries under license from A-B InBev. A-B InBev retains the right to brew and distribute Staropramen in several countries, including Ukraine, Russia, the United States, Germany and Britain, and will have a right of first offer to reacquire the business should CVC decide to sell in the future.

Anheuser-Busch InBev will receive $1.68 billion in cash up front for its eastern European holdings, with an additional $613 million to come in deferred payments and minority interests. It could also collect an additional $800 million later, depending on the unit’s future earnings.


[...]

In-Bev... is dismanteling the Busch empire today...
expect the rebuilding to start after this financial crisis, AKA: '2012 prelude'...After the uprisings in all those eastern european brewery regions have been quelled... sign-off


[edit on 20-3-2010 by St Udio]

reply to post by Maya00a


Thanks a lot for your testimony and good luck to you and your family!

After Moody's, now Fitch is at it too...

Fitch: U.S. and U.K. Need to Cut Budget Deficits by 6-7 Percentage Points to Bolster AAA Ratings

“In Fitch’s opinion, the credibility of fiscal consolidation plans would be greatly strengthened by commitment to save positive fiscal surprises, contingency measures in the event of negative fiscal surprises as well as explicit debt and deficit reduction targets. It is also important that sufficient detail and transparency on the key revenue and spending measures is provided so that independent commentators can subject such plans to analysis and investors can track implementation.”

TRANSPARENCY AND SUFFICIENT DETAIL? BLASPHEMY!

And my friend in ``finance`` so believe his teachers BS about Keynes that he believe that we are in a big recovery... I'll have to teach him about Libertarism, Ron Paul, Karl Denn. and many others so he can see what is really going on... It will be like teaching reality to Cramer...

[edit on 20-3-2010 by Vitchilo]