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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on Feb, 8 2010 @ 05:15 PM

Carry Trade Implosion Precipitates Robotic Selling Into Close As 1,055 ES Level Breached

Attempts by carry traders to redeem some P&L after a month of agony crashed and burned promptly, accelerating into the close as the Yen funding unwind killed not just the carry pairs but broader equities. Of particular note is the hurt experienced by AUD longs funded with either USD or JPY.

It is officially time for Goldman to enter the stop losses on its various carry trades. The pain for the (leveraged) BRLJPY trade has now become unbearable.

The market took out the Friday's ES VWAP close and robotic selling panic set in.

This is what a perfectly uncorrelated market looks like. Sarcasm off.

Time to officially bury the Dow 10,000 v2.
Images at Linky...

posted on Feb, 9 2010 @ 07:50 AM
The dow won't be allowed to fall for long below 10,000!!!

here's why...Green bic man i would like your opinion on this

Helicopter BEN will increase MBS purchases and expand the fed's balance sheet.....the company's he buys this junk from will then take some of it and buy stuff (treasury's /equities/ etc) there has been 1.5 trillion in fed hot money inflows that have been parked in either treasury's / equities etc since NOV.

if you remember in NOV the market tanked (08) and the fed announced they would buy 500 billion in MBS's......the market rallied at least 20% then tanked again in the Jan-March time frame (09) what did the fed do then it agreed to purchase 750 BILLION more MBS's as well as (at least 300 billion) in treasury's....they did this RIGHT AFTER THE MARCH LOWS. This hot money inflows were used to buy the same bonds/ equities and then BOOM 65% rally (at least)...

now were startin to fall again....and probably because the fed is saying they will scale back and complete MBS purchases in March....

here's the best investing advice i have been able to offer.....should the FED make an announcement REGARING future purchases of MBS's or TREASURY that is to EXTEND these purchases (buy more) then GO LONG the market! and guess what BEN will not let the markets fall flat....he WILL extend asset purchases...(should the economy not be able to stand on it's own two feet AND IT CANT!

*the big question that i believe smart investors/ traders have is wether they try to let the financial economy/markets stand on it's own to feet first...only to realize they have to artificially keep it pumped on steroids (i.e make more MBS/Treasury) purchases....from which the hot money will then be invested into various asset classes after the chance of a sizeable correction going forward.... Big ben will keep his promise to the financial sector....the only question is when will he make the announcement for more MBS/ TReasury purchases .....depending on the size of the purchase...will determine the bounce/ rally/ "bull market" in stocks/ bonds.

posted on Feb, 9 2010 @ 09:08 AM
reply to post by cpdaman

I am almost 100% sure they purchased 300 billion in 2009. This accounted for like 18% of total debt purchased or something as they auctioned off 1.15 trillion or something.

I'm basically your backwoods retard on this subject anyway, how the hell you thinking about all this so early? lol

But I really have no idea -

But I think this 10,000 thing is just something for the media to get webhits, ratings etc. - 10,000 has been crossed and recrossed like 25+ times in history or something, so IMO its losing its luster.

Let Tyler Durden and whoever continually keep talking etc. that's all they are good for realistically is a good laugh.

[edit on 9-2-2010 by GreenBicMan]

posted on Feb, 9 2010 @ 10:58 AM
reply to post by GreenBicMan


Profit Target reached at 1.38



Short again now at 1.3824

[edit on 9-2-2010 by GreenBicMan]

posted on Feb, 9 2010 @ 11:09 AM
dude this is Not tyler whoever talking....i think this kind of goes against his thoughts? but i'm not sure nor do i really follow them

the 300 billion in treasury's purchased by fed was in 2009....that is what i said

the 500 billion in 2008 was mortgage backed security's (MBS's) which the fed announced (right after nov 2008 lows)...then market shot up 20% plus..... then they made the announcement they will buy 750 ADDITIONAL (MBS's) along with the Aforementioned 300 billion in Treasury's After the march low's then the market shot up...65 plus %.

Now they have said the program to buy MBS is expiring in not that anyone believes that it will expire....but investors are curious to how or when they will wait to buy more MBS's....or treasury debt....this coupled with the Euro deficits (Euro:yen cross) is weighiin on equities.

Is it me or are you Adverse to admitting/ Believin the markets are being propped up by fed liquidity (cash transfers to bank's fund's) in exchange for toxic assets which in turn the cash is used to buy up equities....treasury's....other assets etc...... tell me that isn't an issue for you to at least contemplate?

posted on Feb, 9 2010 @ 11:27 AM
reply to post by cpdaman

I don't know man.

It probably is in some form, and your sentiments are widely held in fact, just not in CT areas. Most think this way.

I'm not in any camp regarding this issue because honestly it's pretty tough information to figure out IMO. Plus most things people do not understand they label nefarious so it's hard to trust anyone's opinion on anything.

I really do not have a stance, our friend RP or someone else would be 1000000% more qualified to answer you, and I am sure he would be glad to in fact with a post far more in depth than I could ever dream.

posted on Feb, 10 2010 @ 10:40 AM
So it seems that the "nations" in trouble are going to take more nations down with them.

The too big to die or fail is moving from the financial sector to nations abroad.

This whole situation with Greece, Spain and Portugal is worst that many dare to address.

Now bailing out nations will be the new trend rather than calling it for what it is, "nations going bankrupt".

Sometimes I wonder, if the entire thing about globalization has done nothing but more harm than good for nations all around the world including our own nation.

Like markets with no control and regulations has created the biggest mess in the history of the financial world and is bound to get even uglier.

One question I am now trying to answer is "where is all the wealth", I mean this countries collect revenue from their citizens including the US as we now, where is the money, when as we also know our nation and those around the world live on borrowing, and lending as we speak.

Who is reaping all the wealth?

posted on Feb, 10 2010 @ 11:04 AM
reply to post by marg6043

One question I am now trying to answer is "where is all the wealth", I mean this countries collect revenue from their citizens including the US as we now, where is the money, when as we also know our nation and those around the world live on borrowing, and lending as we speak.

Who is reaping all the wealth?

Comrade Stalin.

I think the development is very dangerous.

posted on Feb, 10 2010 @ 12:14 PM
Time for some doom.

The Dumping Begins: Chinese Reserve Managers Notified That Any Non-USG Guaranteed Securities Must Be Divested

Dollar-denominated risk assets, including asset-backed securities and corporates, are no longer wanted at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), nor at China’s large commercial banks. The Chinese government has ordered its reserve managers to divest itself of riskier securities and hold only Treasuries and US agency debt with an implicit or explicit government guarantee. This already has been communicated to American securities dealers, according to market participants with direct knowledge of the events.
Higher labor costs would cut Chinese export competitiveness while boosting domestic spending power and sustaining economic growth, according to the bank.

Wage increases are a better option because they largely benefit Chinese workers,” Tao Dong, a Credit Suisse economist in Hong Kong who has covered the Chinese and Asian economies for more than 15 years, said in an interview yesterday. “Currency appreciation will only result in Chinese exporters losing out to competitors in countries such as Malaysia and Mexico.

Damn, the country who cares for it's citizen is CHINA? We are in the twilight zone here...

Time to run to the hills.

[edit on 10-2-2010 by Vitchilo]

posted on Feb, 10 2010 @ 12:39 PM
Now little Bernanke is talking about raising interest rates in the spring...


"Reverse repos and the deposit facility would together allow the Federal Reserve to drain hundreds of billions of dollars of reserves from the banking system quite quickly, should it choose to do so," Bernanke said.

Bernanke said he planned to start testing out such programs this spring.

But he added that the "firming" of exit strategy policy would start with an increase in the interest rate paid on reserves
, adding that the Fed could always take a more "rapid exit," by increasing the rate paid on reserves if the economy needed it.

Good for me, who have lots of money in my stash. Not good for all the others in debt.

Please Bernanke, raise interest rates to 20%...

[edit on 10-2-2010 by Vitchilo]

posted on Feb, 10 2010 @ 12:49 PM

Major Generals Zhu Chenghu and Luo Yuan and Senior Colonel Ke Chunqiao during a press conference, reaffirmed the country’s decision to stand up to US’ bullying but said there has been no decision yet on selling US treasury bonds. The military officials underscored the domestic pressure to punish Obama administration over the arms sales.

‘Our retaliation should not be restricted to merely military matters, and we should adopt a strategic package of counter-punches covering politics, military affairs, diplomacy and economics to treat both the symptoms and root cause of this disease,’ said Luo Yuan, a researcher at the Academy of Military Sciences told reporters.

Just like two people rowing a boat, if the United States first throws the strokes into chaos, then so must we,’ Yuan explained adding that China could also use economic means such as dumping some of its US government bonds, if requested.

The idea behind the dumping of US treasury bonds is not new. Currently the US government is the world’s and in fact history’s greatest nation in debt. If all the global cash money were to be gathered in one place today, it wouldn’t be enough to pay the US debts. A sudden dumping of US government bonds would force global traders run for safer havens other than the US dollar which could immediately crash the US dollar bringing down the US economy with it.

posted on Feb, 10 2010 @ 04:01 PM
Actually what everybody is missing here, is the development of news of industrial spying that China is claiming against the US well one of the retaliation means that they could use is finishing with the US dollars, beside they seem no to like what Obama said last week about "china currency manipulation" now they are to show Obama what manipulation truly means.

While this news are been talk about on the financial not much has gone around.

Yes people China is accusing US of industrial spying.

posted on Feb, 10 2010 @ 04:22 PM
reply to post by marg6043

The wealth was never there to begin with. It was all based on the increased value of assets hence the phrase asset bubble. When the bubble popped the value of the assets fell and the wealth evaporated, unless you were wise enough to sell all your assets before the pop.

posted on Feb, 10 2010 @ 06:18 PM
Greece on a knife-edge ahead of Euro-crisis meeting

The summit will take place a day after civil servants in Athens staged the first major strike against the Greek government's austerity plans. The government wants to cut public spending in order to trim its deficit. Greece and its huge debt and opaque government finances have weighed down financial markets well beyond Europe.
Investors' nerves appeared to have steadied this week as speculation increases that Greece is too important to fail and will be supported. A list of top backers has emerged - including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European governments, notably Germany and France.

A diplomatic source was quoted as saying Germany and France want the summit to issue a statement of political support, backing Greece against market speculators.
But Thursday's summit will have to work out what - more than just words - can and cannot be done. The founding EU Treaty prevents eurozone member states from taking on each other's debts - meaning that even if the will for a bailout was unanimous, it would be legally tricky to accomplish. Another headache is possible "moral hazard", in that helping Greece would send a signal to other financially weak countries that they need not make tough spending decisions.

All of it is a threat to the euro, on which the fortunes of 16 countries rests.

Now that's what I call a not good scenario.

posted on Feb, 10 2010 @ 09:26 PM
reply to post by GreenBicMan

Stopped out on EUR/AUD - ugly

GBP/JPY still on the line

Got out of short position in EUR.USD - I'm personally pretty confused on market right now in general

posted on Feb, 10 2010 @ 09:36 PM
I can't believe there hasn't been a comment about the Der Speigel article about Goldman Sachs being involved in helping Greece inflate the value of their bonds being issued by using some nifty (i.e. fraudulent) currency exhange tricks. Also, a unnamed company did the same thing to help Italy. While technically legal, if honest accounting were used, Greece and Italy would have breeched the Maasstricht rules/guidelines and Greece and Italy could have been thrown out of the EU back then.

I will try to link the article, never tried to link before

[edit on 10-2-2010 by jacksmoke]

posted on Feb, 11 2010 @ 06:47 AM
E.U. President says deal on Greece has been reached

"It's not about gifts of money or subsidies, but about loans with interest that can be extended quickly to help a country as quickly as possible so that it doesn't come to turmoil on the financial markets, and to a crisis that no one can control any more," Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann said in a televised interview.

That was quick

I expect Verbettering...

[edit on 11-2-2010 by DangerDeath]

posted on Feb, 11 2010 @ 09:21 AM
reply to post by murfdog

Yes I am afraid you are right, it was never any wealth, at least base on the modern day financial "dealings" in this age of "bubbles", "manipulation" and deceit.

But it was upon a time real wealth, tangible and accountable wealth.

The domino effect of the US financial crisis and the age of the bubble collapse has taken its toll all around the world.

how long can nations keep bailing out their own economies to keep the financial world collapse from happening?, even in the event of the nations in trouble going bankrupt they still have to keep their pledge to stimulate their economies to avoid further damage, more borrowing means bigger defecits.

The recovery is a fake the damage can no be undone, that is the way that things will come to end, a world financial collapse while the ones that created all this mess and those few that actually manipulate world finances will become desperate enough to try and enslave populations in order to keep that what doesn't rightfully belong to them.

Yes sounds like rant but this is just my prediction and personal opinion.

posted on Feb, 11 2010 @ 02:34 PM

Forgive my ignorance - but doesn't the wealth essentially get transfered to the Central Bankers - much like when Class Action Lawsuits get awarded huge sums but it turns out that most of it ends up going into pay the outrageous lawyers fees for pursuing the case.

(and the consumers get screwed)

I think if you follow the money thusly the Rothchilds and other prominent Bilderberg'ers end up with much of the "real" transfer of wealth.

posted on Feb, 11 2010 @ 02:53 PM
but greenbicman.....the eur/aud is the carry it went with the interestone day after wed. it was supposed to go that way

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