The disconnect between rational "investment" theory and what is happening right now is growing larger. We all use rational thought to try to figure
out what is going on, but what we have now defies logic. Yes, the falling dollar may help explain where we are at, but the whole notion of
"investment" in stocks because you believe in a company is lost.
Today we "invest" on pure speculation of profit. Rarely do we have a scenario where people invest on faith of a long term success in a stock. Yes,
it still occurs, but I believe most of the volume we see today is pure speculation on technical factors with no rational human thought behind it.
I figured we would be on a decline by now, but the market keeps soaring higher and higher while commodities continue to rise and the dollar falters.
I expect this trend to continue and the only thing that can break the market rally will be a USD rally of some sort. I don't know what could cause
such a USD rally, but that is the only thing I can think of that would break the soaring momentum the market holds right now.
I was bearish as hell until this fall. I saw the entire summer as a bounce in a
W recession but the second leg is waaaay overdue. Now I
don't see any real decline until after the new year. Dow 11000? Why not?
The only thing I know is this is purely manufactured and some sort of power/money grab has been in place for over a year now. I wish I had a copy of
the playbook. I sold gold at the end of Oct.
