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Originally posted by whoshotJR
Man it just seems like since around october 25th or so everything has just gone to even worse crap.
Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
The Dow closed at 10,270.47 up 73 for Friday. The US dollar index has slid steadily down to 75 which might be a good point to stabilize at. Without any big interest rate hikes looming its hard to guess what catalyst might be used to stabilize the dollar though. If something does happen it might be time for the bears to wake up from their nap.
President Obama ignores the fundamental causes of a rising trade deficit -- China’s subsidies for domestic oil consumption, which drive up global prices and the cost of U.S. oil imports, and China’s purposeful manipulation of currency markets, which keeps the yuan undervalued against the dollar and subsidizes Chinese sales in U.S. markets.
President Obama’s policies to fight the recession will deliver an inadequate, temporary lift to the U.S. economy, and he has not offered meaningful policies to reduce the trade deficit. He fails to challenge China’s subsidies for domestic petroleum consumption and to even acknowledge the threat to American prosperity posed by China’s currency mercantilism.
Industrial policies to promote exotic alternatives to conventional oil, conservation and battery powered cars will hardly dent oil imports for many years, and will create jobs numbering in the thousands, not the millions lost in the recession.
Think the worst is over? Wrong. Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening. While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2% and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5%.
While losing 200,000 jobs per month is better than the 700,000 jobs lost in January, current job losses still average more than the per month rate of 150,000 during the last recession.
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $347.5 billion, an increase of 1.4 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month
Gasoline stations sales were down 15.0 percent (±1.3%) from October 2008
For decades American press coverage of global car industry competition has been abysmal. Reporters and commentators have almost never dug below the surface and their idea of fact checking has too often consisted merely of "accurately" recycling previous observers' errors. Worse many commentators have displayed an almost venomously elitist bias against Detroit.
Many journalists seem blind to the practical details of other nations' car industry protection tactics. What sort of tactics? Speaking in Washington in 2007, Steve Biegun, a strategist for Ford, provided some eye-opening recent Korean examples:
* Ford was barred from airing advertising commercials except between 2 a.m. and 6 a.m.* Its showrooms' floor space was restricted by government regulation.
* Korean tax officials automatically audited anyone who bought a foreign car.
Japan has used similarly disingenuous techniques in the past and indeed the tactic of hitting buyers of foreign cars with tax audits was invented in Japan.
In recent years Japanese officials have relied largely on the manipulation of regulations on specifications to keep foreign cars out. The effect has been compounded by the extreme difficulties faced by foreigners in trying to build dealer networks. Not only are suitable sites hard to find but, contrary to all Western ideas of open markets, Japanese car makers rule their distribution networks with an iron rod and are permitted a free rein by government officials in "discouraging" their dealers from handling rival products.
The development of a “double top” now in the S&P 500 is going to get bears excited, and the fact that a head-and-shoulders topping formation may be forming to boot will also renew their courage.
I might have an answer. Late Thursday, I learned that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is telling its clients that the Obama administration is going to announce another major stimulus package. That would mean that the combined monetary and fiscal infusion package that is already historic in proportions might actually be kicked up a notch.
Stimulus packages act with a lag, so Obama & Co. must get the new package passed and get the money spent as quickly as possible.
In that context, Goldman says that we should pay attention to two developments that suggest a greater likelihood of more stimulus ahead:
•First, we have comments from U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-NV that the Senate was likely to consider a jobs bill in early 2010.
•Second, President Obama announced Thursday that the White House would convene a jobs summit in December.
Goldman says a more-explicit focus on job creation would achieve four things:
•Increase the likelihood of new polices, rather than simple extension of existing ones.
•Raise the odds of additional fiscal assistance for states and infrastructure spending.
•Incrementally increase the probability of additional tax relief in 2010.
•And push healthcare reform and energy legislation down lower on the agenda for 2010 – and probably increase the likelihood that Congress scales back the legislation it is contemplating in these areas.
Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Interesting thing I was just looking at
DIA - Diamonds (DOW ETF) has just broken the WEEKLY 200 EMA
SPY - SP 500 ETF has touched the 200 EMA WEEKLY then finished underneath.
So far SPY has been > than DIA and NQ has been > than both.
Does this mean short DIA and buy SPY? Or does this mean short both because the DOW fluctuates more positive and negative and is showing a false breakout? Or does it mean buy both and buy double SPY x 2 ETF because the DIA shows breakout?