The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

US GDP +3.5% .........


www.bloomberg.com...

The world’s largest economy expanded at a 3.5 percent pace from July through September, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Household purchases climbed 3.4 percent, the most in two years.

Government is saying "stimulus" did this... but just yesterday we got reports that Financials took the biggest piece of the pie in .... history. 41% of ALL profits, and 8% of the total GDP.

If you add the Cash For Clunkers BS, the artificial inflating of the stock market via Financials you get enough to boost GDP. Throw in the Housing markets (which for one, always fare better in the summer) and the 8k tax rebate, well that's our GDP.

Notice. Nothing in there produces wealth. Except cars. Only, for it to generate wealth it had to be external sales, so, no, nothing produced wealth. Especially Financials, they not only don't produce wealth, they drain wealth from the country and then invent invisible, imaginary wealth.

Happy Recovery everyone!

reply to post by Rockpuck


You forgot that companies are allowed to post their profits from oversea also, that boost the numbers even when the profits were not made in the US and doesn't help the economy either.

Then unemployment to hit 10.0 this week, what that tells you.



[edit on 29-10-2009 by marg6043]

reply to post by Vitchilo


Well finally the rich oil countries will be doing their pricing without having the US doing it for them.



I guess they got tire of waiting for the US speculators to boost the prices like they want it.

GDP Hike Doesn't Indicate Recovery

Why? oh why? elementary Mr. Watson, the only ones that has been boosting the GDP numbers is the government run away spending, while adding more burdern on our national deficit.

After four straight months of economic decline, gross domestic product actually grew in the third quarter, according to the Commerce Department, leading some to declare that the recession is over.

From July to September, the economy grew at a 3.5 percent rate, better the 3.2 percent analysts had expected.

Much of the growth was fueled by government spending, including the “cash for clunkers” program, which spurred auto sales, the $787 billion stimulus package, which has funded public works projects across the country, and a first-time homebuyer tax credit, which has allowed the housing market to rebound somewhat.

While some were quick to declare the announcement as the first sign that the recession has ended, the White House was not.

www.economyincrisis.org...

Another factor contributing to the fallacy of using GDP as a sacred economic measurement is the fact that it does not take into account capital that is transferred abroad. For instance, the current GDP numbers were inflated by government spending. However, the indicator does not take into account that much of that money was borrowed from foreign nations and will have to be paid back eventually.

Itsn't that kind of . . . decieving information?


[edit on 29-10-2009 by marg6043]

Question for anyone out there. KD's Ticker Forum went on lockdown today and only does that unless there's heavy volume or some other "reason". I'm cool with that as I'm not a donor, so no biggie, thought I would just wait till he unfreezes it later tonight.

Well hoped over to cnbc and see we are up for today (surprise) but a little tidbit caught my eye. Unusual trading activity

Anyone know if anything odd is going on? I've never seen a headline like this on cnbc.

reply to post by marg6043


I for one am expecting the Unemployment rate to decline. Don't get me wrong, job growth will still be negative..

But of course, overseas profits DO help corporations, especially when the Dollar is weaker. In 3q 2008 companies like Cocacola, Pepsi, McDonalds etc all posted huge gains from currency conversions.

Of course, companies ARE actually required to report WHERE their monies came from, to stock holders.. however, I have never once heard MSM report specifically income ratios from currency conversions. However, last year it was being discussed by smaller economic news agencies and websites. If you really wanted to look into where the income came from.

Though, I should say, a company only produces wealth if indeed they sell over seas. Cocacola for instance DOES produce wealth when it converts it's money into Dollars and posts a profit. It's an export, and is not internally consumed through the revolving wealth we call our GDP.

reply to post by serph


Given the sheer number of stocks that are above the 100 day average, I would say it's probably related to higher average of volume by big firms. Or, it could well be pump-and-dump on behalf of some massive monies. None of those companies signals anything of importance to me however.. except that all are generally associated with average sales during good economic times, perhaps people are speculating their future importance in relation to the GDP rise this morning?

reply to post by Rockpuck


I can see that. Good Year with high volume and going down. that one stuck out to me, but seeing as how auto sales are about to crater again, well it's not like you didn't see that coming from a mile away.

Didn't mean to cause any alarms here. Just me being a bit paranoid. LOL

reply to post by serph


Oh, you are right to be paranoid as government numbers and the markets woes are deceiving and the second very real.

Here's the thing to keep in mind....
Most of the retail investors left the market back in march... back when we had that big panic sell off...

SO what do have today... just a few die hards and we all know it only takes a few buyers to keep buying to make it look like a rally...

the GDP is Odd... Durable good orders are up but retail sales are down? New house sales are way down unemployment way up....

This kind of tells me with the drop in the dollar other countries are buying our goods and services... Heck it might be cheaper to buy a Caddy in Tokyo than it is a Honda these days... buty things are still the same here

Originally posted by GreenBicMan


Interesting spot

First time we have violated 50 EMA

Tommorow is either the reversal or our way back down to 200 ema which should make a lot of people happy on the short term at least

Today validated our continuing rally

Would hate to see a test again of the 50 tomorrow, I am thinking through we go right back up towards 20 Ema and higher like every other time we have tested a major EMA - look for a new yearly high next week IMO

Another sign of recovery...

U.S. Home Vacancies Rise to 18.8 Million on Defaults

18.8 million... this is insane.

And yeah, fourth quarter GDP will be negative or null if the US government doesn't pass another bailout/stimulus... which I think they will... or at the latest when congress come back in January using the fourth quarter news to pass it.

reply to post by Vitchilo


The problem is that in order to pass another stimulus they have to increase the debt ceiling and that is something congress is holding to for now.

If they raise the debt ceiling it will not send good sings to the oversea debt holders.

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by marg6043

 

I for one am expecting the Unemployment rate to decline. Don't get me wrong, job growth will still be negative..

Yeah, me too, but only because people will be starting to run out of unemployment benefits. Once those run out, the government no longer considers you unemployed.

Few other news...and big ones.

CIT still in big trouble even with the multi-billion credit line given to them yesterday...

CIT Bonds Show Bankruptcy Foregone Conclusion as Swap Expires

They are basically dead unless there's a nationalization or some big hundreds of billions bailout...

Health-care bill is only 2000 pages long and 894 billion... no big deal...

Ron Paul will announce/has announced that he will run for president in 2012.

BIG NEWS: Lisbon treaty to pass, deal made with Czech Republic.. ;*(
EU leaders agreed on Thursday to demands from the Czech president in return for the country's ratification of the ambitious EU reform treaty
Europe is toasted and has fallen under the Europe government... now to topple it all, im sure that son-of-a-gun Tony Blair will end up president...


This is sickening.

EDIT: Other news...
Stock analysts issue Black Tuesday warning

On this 80th anniversary of the "Black Tuesday" stock market collapse, some analysts are experiencing déjà vu, warning a major crash in the stock market is imminent.

Graham Summers, senior market strategist at OmniSans Research, wrote in the firm's daily e-letter yesterday that the markets may finally be on the verge of the crash he has been predicting for more than two months.

"Well, judging from the market's action today, I believe we may be within 48 hours of getting the "Official Sell" signal I've been waiting for," he wrote in "Gain, Pains, and Capital."

EDIT 2: New York declaring emergency over swine flu... From war on terror hysteria to economic crash hysteria to pandemic hysteria... The government is sure not wasting any ``crisis`` to their sick advantage.

[edit on 29-10-2009 by Vitchilo]

Today looked programish like big money was covering some shorts to stair step the market up, so they can get started selling again from a higher price.

Yesterday, too, looked very controlled in the downward direction. Actually yesterday's chart looks even more mathematically programish than today's.

I think this week has to end down.

I heard something really odd on CNBC's Closing Bell show today. It was late in the 4 o'clock hour, maybe around 4:50. I think Maria asked Bob Pisani about today's trading and Bob said ''well the rally continues!'' really upbeat like there had been a breakout to a new high or something. All that happened today was a rather nice up move, but leaving the market still lower than recent highs. That's no way to determine if a rally is continuing.

That would be like saying the Yankees have a 3 to 2 lead over the Phillies, then the Phillies score 3 runs to take the lead 5 to 3, then the Yankees score a run to make it Phillies 5 to Yankees 4 and the sportscaster excitedly claims ''well the Yankees win continues!'' before the Yankees even have the lead again much less demonstrate that they will actually win the game.

Odd isn't it?

This day seemed so very manipulated.

They are kicking dead legs. Galvani effect. There is an inarticulate problem and is ignored. Up down, up down, how do you determine a "win" when there is also a "loss"? I think they are crying for "infusion" because that is the only "novelty" that can happen in this Market...

reply to post by Rockpuck


Isn't the rise simply a visible aftershock of the stimulus?

How can the recession be "over" when the nation produces next to nothing? The financial sector is the only thing running the US and the UK, is it surprising that they "seem" to be doing well shortly after the government has given them billions?

This is a con. But they're even pointing it out in their own statement that the stimulus helped: this is the stimulus giving false data, surely?

I definitely think it is far too early to be calling this over, especially since this is uncharted waters. No government that I am aware of has ever pumped so much money into their economy in such a short time (except Zimbabwe), and we don't know how this will show in various tracking data.

Also, I've said it before and I'll say it again, which economy are they looking at here, the real economy of employment, standards of living, food prices etc. or the playground of the wealthy corporations?

The futures are down right now, 7:38 AM on the east coast. I'm all for it. Dismal futures are very bright for me.

GBM, I do see how you can be interpreting Thursday's move as technically a good sign, but I'm telling you the markets do not move on technicals. They move on time cycles, and the chart patterns & technical indicators are like the shadows.

If the exuberance does not abate then there will be a newsly fabrication to shock it into a state of selliformity. The money giants will make this market go the way they want it to go. And Maria will cheer it along!!