The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


iNTEResting..

go deeper into what you think the play is?

Also, i didnt notice, but did the system work or not work last week?

Also, this should mean when UNG "hits it right" it should take off pretty big then shouldnt it?

Like 20% move or something to make up for this bias

Although, if I was in this, I really would not want the volatility that NG brings anyways.. that could be a heart attack and a half

Whoever plays NG futures at 6/100th's of a cent tick (i believe) has >= balls than Ray "The Dream".

Originally posted by GreenBicMan

iNTEResting..

go deeper into what you think the play is?

Also, i didnt notice, but did the system work or not work last week?

What system are you talking about?

The play...well I think this isn't THE rise for natural gas...the big story is still the producers filling storage. My belief is, if we get bearish inventory numbers, it will be shorted. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see natural gas rally if storage is filled (bearish) or not near winter time. One because it would be a sigh of relief and another it would just be good news.

Let's just say I am pretty wimpy when it comes to blatantly manipulated commodities (up 15% one day, next day down 9%, next day up 9%). I also think there will be A LOT of volatility in natural gas which I have said a while ago because this is the only thing people still perceive to be cheap in this market...

[edit on 14-9-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Also, this should mean when UNG "hits it right" it should take off pretty big then shouldnt it?

Like 20% move or something to make up for this bias

Although, if I was in this, I really would not want the volatility that NG brings anyways.. that could be a heart attack and a half

Whoever plays NG futures at 6/100th's of a cent tick (i believe) has >= balls than Ray "The Dream".

After this roll into November contracts, which is considerably more expensive than October so UNG will lose value (contango), and if the premium goes to like 5% (it is at 9% now, down from trading at a 20% premium to NAV), then it would probably be worthwhile to have a small position for winter (small because I don't fully trust commodity etfs). And you can go for producers, I have had a small position in GMXR for a while now at like 9.20 cost basis...

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


No I meant the Wednesday/Thursday system

Also regarding volatility aren't you (supposedly) paying premium when volatility is higher - meaning you wont make as much - and when volatility is small you will make more?

Maybe that is not stated anywhere, but I have heard someone talking about that one time and I cant remember where, but its one of those things that stuck out in my mind

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Also regarding volatility aren't you (supposedly) paying premium when volatility is higher - meaning you wont make as much - and when volatility is small you will make more?

Maybe that is not stated anywhere, but I have heard someone talking about that one time and I cant remember where, but its one of those things that stuck out in my mind

Yes, an increase in implied volatility of the stock or whatever does make the options more expensive because you have a greater chance of the option hitting the strike price so the writer will demand more compensation...But yeah, I mean, if UNG moves up 10% the calls will go up anywhere from 50-200%. Now if WalMart all of a sudden went up 10%, well the calls would probably go up by like 1000%...

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

The wisper turned out to be a lame rumor broadly based on feelings:

A year after the financial system nearly collapsed, the nation's biggest banks are bigger and regaining their appetite for risk.

With Congress behind, there is nothing such a risk. You get simply bailed out. The message is on the board.

Obama can only take on smokers; he doesn't pose any problem for the bubble makers.

Stocks Unfazed by Obama; Sprint Soars

The traders didn't pay attention to his chatter.

And so we are heading for an uneventful rest of the year . . .

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Edit:

I should have clarified, I was specifically speaking about UNG in this case, and not options in general

Stocks Unfazed by Obama; Sprint Soars

Why does Sprint soar?

There was a word uttered during a dinner . . .

Goldman Sachs Group (GS, news, msgs) hosted a dinner Wednesday at the swanky restaurant Aquavit in New York for the heads of 15 large hedge funds to exchange ideas on strategy. I was told by a source that all but one declared stocks very overvalued after their recent 50% sprint.

articles.moneycentral.msn.com...

"I heard Mr. Golgman saying that Sprint shares are greatly undervalued and should be 50% higher."

Flush your ears, Mr. Investor.

The S&P closed at a new high for the year and the FTSE is within a few points of a new high as well. That should encourage Asia although recently it appears Japan is full of self loathing. We have quite a lot of data reported tomorrow.

I talked to Ray yesterday about the simplest way to predict the Dow's close. Since the minimum number of points to draw a straight line is two, we both agreed that the first point is the morning bottom point and the second point is drawn exactly at 1:00 on the 5-minute CNBC chart. Of course, you can't predict anything by that unless you manipulate it that way.


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/38b0a2bdfe88.jpg[/atsimg]

Note the sharply increased volume under the "Ray's crossing." Ray had to buy lots of shares to "keep the boat steady."

Some folks suspect that the market is manipulated.
Well, there is always something about any rumor.

Natural gas futures are up 6% tonight after a 16% rise today. Jesus f*king christ.............A combination of things is shooting up the price. GS said that natural gas will go up from here (I guess they covered their shorts and went long), I think UNG pushed the futures higher to minimize losses on their fund, and natural gas was heavily shorted causing a short squeeze.

NG@ 3.50...

Hmmm...

YEN is weakening a tad... 91.07

GBP hit a new high... 166.567 and climbing...

EUR hit a new high... 146.462

USD holding around 76.7

Spot Gold $999.02

12 Month Treasury Receipts down 15%
suddendebt.blogspot.com...

World wealth down 11 percent, fewer millionaires
www.reuters.com...

[edit on 9/15/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Japanese traders made today's session uneventful after yesterday's "adjustment." Japan Airlines went up 8% in the midst of all the yesterday selling, but today, the kamikaze lost 3.41%. I guess some of the folks who bought plane tickets to flee the islands in the sight of the falling market changed their mind and returned the tickets.

Kimi ga yo wa / Chiyo ni yachiyo ni / Sazare ishi no /
Iwao to nari te / Koke no musu made.



What kind of song is that?

Dow futures at 9535. They're tricking the suckers.

THE RALLY IS STILL IN EFFECT!!

And the futures go up, up & away...

retail sales up 2.7%?

PPI & CPI up also?

Best Buy & Kroger both miss Est's :shk:

Art Cashin says, "Stocks are over valued and over bought..."...cut to strange painful facial expressions on Carl & Joe

Hmmm...now GBP dropping... 164.60

Schwab falls,says low rates weighing on results
www.marketwatch.com...

[edit on 9/15/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Still more room to go up on S&P. They sure are giving shorts a hell of a squeeze!

U.S. credit shrinks at Great Depression rates:

here

Also...

Insiders are selling 471 million dollars worth of stock in the previous 2 weeks vs. purchases of only 4.6 million dollars worth of stock.

here

[edit on 15-9-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

The greatest news of today, people,

Retail Sales Report Indicates Consumer Are Spending Again

Now does that figures include the success of the Clunkers program to foreign car dealers?