The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Originally posted by GreenBicMan

Originally posted by warrenb
reply to post by marg6043

 

To me it seems like the markets are doing exactly what they did this past January to March, before tumbling below 6800...
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/db28d4536a4d.png[/atsimg]
finance.yahoo.com...

We could see the downward spiral very soon


[edit on 3-9-2009 by warrenb]

Thats very incorrect (not being mean), I can help you here.


www.sierrachart.com...


Thats all you need to know really - the 20 EMA and the 50 EMA now that we are above the 200 EMA.

I used to be a technical indicator/chart guy myself. I have a whole bookshelf dedicated to chart analysis.

The two things that really drive the market is fear and greed and unfortunately there are not any tech indicators for that.

They probably moved the gold so the West doesn't hold the gold hostage if it defaults on derivative agreements...

reply to post by lucentenigma


I have heard that before as well, I am sure many others have too. While that is obvious on most levels, it wont tell you who is more fearful and who is more greedy. Thats why you have the math to back you up.

Originally posted by redhatty
The FED had a good CMB auction today, right after the results were released, the DXY obtained an erection.

We know where the $$ came from to prop the USD up today, now don't we?

Even though the talking heads on CNBS are not mentioning China & it's gold recall from London, the traders see the news & are acting accordingly.

I'm thinking that the inverse 2x gold etfs, DZZ or DZG are a good investment today, possibly cashing out tomorrow or Monday

edit to correct spelling/syntax

[edit on 9/3/09 by redhatty]

Yeah, I would normally agree, although gold is due for some of those "fooled your a$$" times where it takes out your stop then finishes 40 points below

Gold looks ready to pop $1000 again this year.....Just my 2cents....you can keep em


PG

Originally posted by stander
Today, the development favors the extended linear regression as a tool to predict today close.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/c952fb663353.jpg[/atsimg]

See what happens . . .

I believe that there is nothing more educational than this. It proves that some 90% market analysts are nothing more that stock peddlers who are trying to convince prospective customers that all the mechanics that steer the market are still in place and can be applied to make a good investment. They peddle the word around that the investor is in charge looking at this and that indicator to adjust their strategy and be in charge of things, which is BUNCH OF BULL proven bellow.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/c83c02f95668.jpg[/atsimg]

The extended linear regression speaks for the curve until 3:30 when the volume increases, and the curve climbs bearing one o'clock. What kind of positive indicator(s) did the investors react to this time? What kind of news hit the wire at 3:30?

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Do you want me to grab a bullhorn and ask once again?

So I ask another question: Where will the the Dow be tomorrow morning at 10:00? What if the extended linear regression line puts it back at 9,300?
Would it be a surprise?

reply to post by stander


The reverse pattern happened with gold at 3:30, investors apparently started selling off gold and started buying stock again in volume.

Both gold and stocks compete for investors who want a safe haven against inflation. Gold got overbought at $1000 so they started buying equities again. As you said there must be an inside signal from somewhere?

Gold has only gone over $1000 an ounce twice $1015 on March 1 2008 and $1005 on February 1, 2009. Both times it pulled back by about $100 an ounce within two weeks of the peak. Perhaps some investors feel the $1000 an ounce level is a good point to take profits?

[edit on 3-9-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
reply to post by stander

 

The reverse pattern happened with gold at 3:30, investors apparently started selling off gold and started buying stock again in volume.

Both gold and stocks compete for investors who want a safe haven against inflation. Gold got overbought at $1000 so they started buying equities again. As you said there must be an inside signal from somewhere?

Gold has only gone over $1000 an ounce twice $1015 on March 1 2008 and $1005 on February 1, 2009. Both times it pulled back by about $100 an ounce within two weeks of the peak. Perhaps some investors feel the $1000 an ounce level is a good point to take profits?

Sorry, but any $100 golden pullback that takes two weeks to complete cannot explain an action where the Dow appreciate by no less than $20 billion within a half an hour. Gold hasn't reached beyond $1000 today and stays now at $996 per ounce. I don't believe that $2 gold price depreciation translates into $20 billion ready to be invested into the equities when someone whistles at 3:30 pm.

There was lots of liquid assets floating around after the 2% loss a couple of days ago. That's where the wind blows from.

I'm interviewing Karl Denninger, post your questions for him in this thread!
as in click the link lol.

[edit on 9/3/2009 by Tentickles]

reply to post by GreenBicMan

GBM, check this out:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/c952fb663353.jpg[/atsimg]


The Dow actually followed the extended LR line!


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/2a2021bd6b3a.jpg[/atsimg]

Amazing . . .

reply to post by stander


You know whats funny man is this whole time on my charting software I have had a linear regression tool all the time...


missed the boat on this one

Guys the market action lately has been nothing but textbook. We all knew we would fall sharply to the 20 EMA.

Now the trick is if we doji around for a few more days here and take out a new yearly high, or we go back down and test the 50 EMA.

Its getting pretty callable everyday, infact we have members that are almost calling the close now...

I might have to summon that spaceship - because I think we test the 50 now and not later

reply to post by stander


These doji moves are signaling a big move either way on the daily chart.

Even though VIX is falling GBM thinks it will be rising (IMO we go lower)

Also, if my last piece of advice was not advised before on NG (where I heard from big money they were shorting from high 2 dollar range) about xxx pages ago, blue horseshoe says he loves NG from 1.80-2.20 - that is the predicted bottom from someone in the game - no one that i know though

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by stander

 

These doji moves are signaling a big move either way on the daily chart.

Even though VIX is falling GBM thinks it will be rising (IMO we go lower)

Also, if my last piece of advice was not advised before on NG (where I heard from big money they were shorting from high 2 dollar range) about xxx pages ago, blue horseshoe says he loves NG from 1.80-2.20 - that is the predicted bottom from someone in the game - no one that i know though

You think there will be a big move coming either up or down in the markets shortly? Marc Farber thinks within a week-2weeks the dollar will rally and stocks will go down and he makes fantastic predictions.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


well yes then, i dont know about the dollar but I am a retard and even I know dollar + when market is -

so yeah, i totally agree with that.. a dip just above or a few percent below the 50 EMA will bring back the naysayers just in time to have Jp and friends on a random thursday afternoon take it all back when their shorts get stopped the f' out

Also, when I get done with my next simulation, I will be posting a chart of what I think could happen both ways..

I am 55% bear if I had to give out a stat.

Like I said, could easily go both ways, I play for volatility ( weekly scale) and by that I mean 5 day range... could "doji" here for x amt. of days.. but even if you go back to our last bear flag I think that was 7-8..



[edit on 3-9-2009 by GreenBicMan]


editx2 - info for those that want to know = my dad has moved all clients out of agressive and more into bonds and cash

[edit on 3-9-2009 by GreenBicMan]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

well yes then, i dont know about the dollar but I am a retard and even I know dollar + when market is -

so yeah, i totally agree with that.. a dip just above or a few percent below the 50 EMA will bring back the naysayers just in time to have Jp and friends on a random thursday afternoon take it all back when their shorts get stopped the f' out

Where, approximately, is the 50EMA on the S&P? I am too lazy to look and am sure you have it memorized...

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


www.sierrachart.com...


in blue

red - 20

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

www.sierrachart.com...


in blue

red - 20

Pssh you call that a correction? 978? I guess if this heads higher before falling....

Thats it +/- a percentage

We have fallen though, and actually quite quickly.. about almost 5% is that correct? Add about 20 more on +/- some and you have your "pro's" 6-10% correction - lol