The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

The shorts continue to feed the bulls with their carcasses. Unless this stops the market can go up forever. I am astonished that the White House saying the economy is worse than they previously thought didn't dampen the mood. Actually...I am not really that surprised. I think it is hilarious how everyone knows the markets are being manipulated. I still have my SPY 104 puts though

The VIX has 84,000 september 30 dollar calls traded today vs. 210 30 dollar puts. I wonder if big money is betting on a increase in fear in the markets or if it is just hedging?

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


GBM's declining "Yellow line" should be reached sometime in September and the bears really need a pullback before it crosses or else they face extinction.

From my perspective the yellow line is a little less exact its just a vague trendline. lots of individual stocks have already crossed. For the Dow the yellow line could be crossed anywhere from 9600 to 10,000. If we had a correction that followed down using the yellow line as resistance it would create a nice rally when the trend reversed and stocks broke out to the upside.

Stander has continued to do a good job of calling the markets and even he is not sure of where we are going longer term, so I am hesitant to go short or long except as a session trade unless we get a pullback or trend reversal.

reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate


Yes, the yellow is on the WEEKLY SCALE MY FRIEND

Now -- *important*

At my old Resistance 1 (on daily scale) that is when we BEAR FLAG'd out if you remember that sir..

So I am thinking we go again till we hit the R1 on WEEKLY, bearflag out again.. but we are sitting a good amt. above the 20 EMA right now and I do expect a sharp pullback to that sometime soon (daily scale)

edit: 20 ema in red

[edit on 25-8-2009 by GreenBicMan]

Originally posted by stander
GBM should look at this. I was looking for EMA(x>50) line that would meet yesterday's close. It turned out that EMA(100) did the job. The chart shows a similarity between yesterday and August 19 where the moving averages line stays for a while with the point line.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/f62319a51809.jpg[/atsimg]

So, if things are wound up to repeat, today Dow should go up by 80+ points, no?


[edit on 8/25/2009 by stander]

The 100 EMA is used by a LOT of technicians

I choose the 20 50 200 EMA game (or prefer at least i should say)

I also use different timescales such as 233 t , 1 day, 30 min, 5 min etc..

The only reason I dont like using that exclusively is bc its hard for me to see a "bigger" picture, if you can come up with something that uses the 100 EMA exclusively I will program it for you/us and try the results... if it works just put me on your christmas list - and i know that pays well.. you pay in euro's right?

[edit on 25-8-2009 by GreenBicMan]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Nice Run today


www.sierrachart.com...




www.sierrachart.com...




and we are still in this triangle PERFECTLY



I am going to bet my life on this one too.. The break upwards of this funnel will send us around 1100 on SP 500


[edit on 20-8-2009 by GreenBicMan]

So.. this is definately a valid formation..

Stopped right on the number today actually

So IMO you play for volatility


HERE YOU GO


BROKE OUT OF THAT TRIANGLE AS WELL, ACTUALLY TESTED IN INTRADAY AND MOVED HIGHER OFF IT

[edit on 21-8-2009 by GreenBicMan]

still in this cone formation

If this does finally end up closing above the cone we are going to keep murdering shorts..

I talked to a friend of mine I havent talked to in forever, told me about how he lost about everything trying to short this thing from a few months ago.. i wish i would have talked to him before that.. I usually regard him as a good trader too..

I actually went to him for capital LOL!.. he is in about as bad shape as I am.. to anyone out there I just need 10,000 (ben, i know you are reading)

The White House forecasts a record $1.58 trillion deficit in fiscal 2009, matching the numbers of the CBO, while it shows the deficit at $1.5 trillion in 2010, a touch higher than the $1.48 trillion projected by CBO.

But both estimates show annual deficits staying above $500 billion every year until 2019, compared with a then-record $459 billion last year. The White House shows the gap averaging 5.1 percent through 2019, compared with 3.2 percent last year.

By 2019, it estimates that the ratio of national debt to gross domestic products will rise to 69 percent from 48 percent in 2009.

"The administration has always said that you have to get deficits under 3 percent of GDP to be safe. They now admit that they will not in the next 10 years," said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a CBO director under Bush and chief economic adviser to Republican Senator John McCain for his 2008 presidential bid. [ID:nN24166732]

The budget news was overshadowed by Obama's surprise announcement on Tuesday to renominate Ben Bernanke to a second four-year term as Federal Reserve chairman, a move seen as aiming for continuity at the central bank during a tentative stage of recovery.

"I'm stunned at how hard they have worked to bury this", Holtz-Eakin said of the White House's budget estimate timing.

www.reuters.com...

Holtz is stunned at the burying of the story?
He must be newly awakened to the propaganda machine...



[edit on 25-8-2009 by warrenb]

something else to think about as well

Originally posted by warrenb

The White House forecasts a record $1.58 trillion deficit in fiscal 2009, matching the numbers of the CBO, while it shows the deficit at $1.5 trillion in 2010, a touch higher than the $1.48 trillion projected by CBO.

But both estimates show annual deficits staying above $500 billion every year until 2019, compared with a then-record $459 billion last year. The White House shows the gap averaging 5.1 percent through 2019, compared with 3.2 percent last year.

By 2019, it estimates that the ratio of national debt to gross domestic products will rise to 69 percent from 48 percent in 2009.

"The administration has always said that you have to get deficits under 3 percent of GDP to be safe. They now admit that they will not in the next 10 years," said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a CBO director under Bush and chief economic adviser to Republican Senator John McCain for his 2008 presidential bid. [ID:nN24166732]

The budget news was overshadowed by Obama's surprise announcement on Tuesday to renominate Ben Bernanke to a second four-year term as Federal Reserve chairman, a move seen as aiming for continuity at the central bank during a tentative stage of recovery.

"I'm stunned at how hard they have worked to bury this", Holtz-Eakin said of the White House's budget estimate timing.

www.reuters.com...

I love it when I read these reports and projections. How absolutely retarded.

Yeah, I am sure in 1999 they were forecasting our current budget as well, right?

Apparently in 2000/2001 the CBO was projecting a $5.6trillion surplus.
www.epi.org...


[edit on 25-8-2009 by nydsdan]

[edit on 25-8-2009 by nydsdan]

We also had a big sell off in oil that put in a bottom just a little higher than last Wednesday. The fundamentals are different but its not bullish for equities.

www.quote.com... 99



[edit on 25-8-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

Calm down.
Don't go getting all wee wee'd up. You'll cause a run on Depends undergarments.

But seriously. Even ~I~ get a little bummed out when I see the days pass by without the market moving up 200 points. I love to see those huge days come one after another. I suppose somebody needs to take out some cash sometimes and they sell a bunch of stock to get it. The sellers are always met by the buyers though. Hold tight. Even if we get a little pullback. The bull rally is still in effect!

Soon we'll be taking down the 10's and 20's categories. We might even get rid of the 50's. I want to see 100... 500... a THOUSAND dollar calls to my ministry. I'm not talking about gifts. I want ~sacrifice~.

reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate


Watch for the pop again tomorrow to see 75

reply to post by GreenBicMan


With oil prices fluctuations can be tropical storm related. The latest tropical disturbance had been forecast to go into the gulf of mexico and disrupt the oil platforms. Latest Recon flight will probably renew that concern for the oil operations off the Carolinas.


[edit on 25-8-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate


Hurricane or no hurricane brother if we spike at hit 75 and run through it next stop is 80 IMO, but i really dont follow oil too much either

reply to post by GreenBicMan

I'll give it one more chance. The Dow ended up with 30 points under its belt today. I retraced the August 19 to August 20 line and stopped at 80 points -- way up. So I split the 80 points on 30 + 50. In other words, if EMA(100) is not kidding the way I interpreted it, then tomorrow the Dow gains 50+ points.

The Dow actually reached twice the 80+ territory today, but Mr. Goldman shoots down everything that flies that high. Surface-to-air, Hellfires . . . anything that make the suckers pay for the high-elevation sightseeing flights. Mr. Goldman goes often to the church to learn the details about the Tower of Babel -- about the way God cut the construction short.
Yep.

Originally posted by stander
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

I'll give it one more chance. The Dow ended up with 30 points under its belt today. I retraced the August 19 to August 20 line and stopped at 80 points -- way up. So I split the 80 points on 30 + 50. In other words, if EMA(100) is not kidding the way I interpreted it, then tomorrow the Dow gains 50+ points.

The Dow actually reached twice the 80+ territory today, but Mr. Goldman shoots down everything that flies that high. Surface-to-air, Hellfires . . . anything that make the suckers pay for the high-elevation sightseeing flights. Mr. Goldman goes often to the church to learn the details about the Tower of Babel -- about the way God cut the construction short.
Yep.

Ok, so give me a formula on how I would play this either shorting or long position..

I am guessing you wanna play this on a long term scale

Here is how I would start

Buy 10 contracts (at start)

Then make a forumla to sell off or buy back (long or short)

For instance

1. Buy 10 when "x" happens

2. Sell 2 if x+2 or x-2

3. Sell 4 if x+4 or x-3

4. Sell 2 if x+6 or x-4

5. Sell 2 if x+8 or x-5



Hope that makes sense.. I am willing to do this bc I somewhat believe in it as well.. but I would not play the small volatility moves like this even though you could..

Another good thing to develop would be playing EMA's the "OPPOSITE WAY"

As in when a SHORT TERM EMA crosses over a LONG TERM EMA you actually SHORT InStEaD of BUYING *doing the opposite you should* to play the downtrend or uptrend you would hope ensue because you are looking for stability and not volatility when you are looking at the 100 EMA in the terms you are

But I would play it like I set it up for a longerterm buy/short program

If you explain yourself well I will be able to put it together quite easily

[edit on 25-8-2009 by GreenBicMan]

reply to post by stander


Definitely a problem in communication between Asia and the UK.

Maybe Asia plays catchup tonight?

www.quote.com... &chartUi.size=620x300&chartUi.minutes=

Hmmm...wonder how this will go over...

Court Orders Fed to Disclose Emergency Bank Loans (Update2)
www.bloomberg.com...

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve must for the first time identify the companies in its emergency lending programs after losing a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit.

Manhattan Chief U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska ruled against the central bank yesterday, rejecting the argument that loan records aren’t covered by the law because their disclosure would harm borrowers’ competitive positions.

The Fed has refused to name the financial firms it lent to or disclose the amounts or the assets put up as collateral under 11 programs, most put in place during the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression, saying that doing so might set off a run by depositors and unsettle shareholders. Bloomberg LP, the New York-based company majority-owned by Mayor Michael Bloomberg, sued on Nov. 7 on behalf of its Bloomberg News unit.

“The Federal Reserve has to be accountable for the decisions that it makes,” said U.S. Representative Alan Grayson, a Florida Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, after Preska’s ruling. “It’s one thing to say that the Federal Reserve is an independent institution. It’s another thing to say that it can keep us all in the dark.”

reply to post by Hx3_1963


I wonder if with the volatility of our nations population right now, this is the right move for those in the government ranks that are dissatisfied with the fed role in the nations and wants the people to see what the fed is all about.

Due to the fact that politicians seems to have their hands ties (willingly or unwillingly when it comes to regulating the fed).

So now they are handling the tools needed for public outrage in the hopes of creating national situation.

But we know that most people in the nation had not clue of what or how the fed works.

Their efforts will go in vain if people doesn't react.

reply to post by GreenBicMan

Oh, no. I didn't mean to buy anything, especially not tomorrow. I'm just trying to figure out if there is really a pattern between Aug. 19 - 20 and Aug. 25 - 26, the way EMA(100) suggested. So I split the predicted 80 points into two days: 30 for today and 50 for tomorrow. The problem is that the Dow needs an oxygen mask in these heights.