The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

OhOh...big trouble brewing at VW...~39% stock drop and investigations are in progress...remember Adolf Merckle killed himself on a short squeeze back awhile ago... :shk:

VW Common Shares Fall for Sixth Day; Short Interest Increases
www.bloomberg.com...

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Volkswagen AG common shares extended their decline in the past six days to 38 percent as Porsche SE exits the carmaker’s securities and short-sellers increase bets the losses may grow.

The ordinary shares slipped 3.7 percent to 140.64 euros as of 11:53 a.m. in Frankfurt. The preferred stock dropped 5.7 percent to 64.51 euros, paring its 15 percent jump yesterday. Porsche climbed 1.7 percent to 55.11 euros, a seventh advance.

VW’s common stock has retreated since Porsche, which held about 20 percent of options to buy the securities, said Aug. 14 it’s selling a majority of them to Qatar. The emirate paid 80 euros for the carmaker’s common shares, Manager-Magazin said yesterday, citing unidentified people close to Porsche. The magazine added that Porsche also held options on VW’s preferred stock and is selling them to Qatar.

“What’s currently happening is what everyone expected one day would occur: the common shares have to return to their fair value,” said Robert Heberger, an analyst at Merck Finck & Co. in Munich. “Since the consensus seems to be a fair value of around 100 euros, then we may still have another 40 euros to drop. That said, with VW shares you cannot exclude they remain at incredible levels for a longer time.”

Merckle Family’s Mepha Said to Seeks Bids of About $464 Million
www.bloomberg.com...

~
Ludwig Merckle is selling pharmaceutical, machinery and cement assets after his father Adolf, who committed suicide in January, amassed debt and lost money on wrong-way bets on the stock market last year.

More robbing Peter to pay Paul... :shk:

GM offers dealers advances on "clunkers" cash
www.reuters.com...

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Co will provide cash advances to dealers to cover "Cash for Clunkers" rebates while the incentives are being processed by the U.S. government, the company said on Thursday.

GM said the action would provide dealers with the liquidity to run their businesses while they wait for the government's checks.

The move comes in the face of weeks-long delays in reimbursements and addresses growing concerns among dealers that the program's $3 billion funding may run out before they receive the cash owed to them.

A group representing the country's some 20,000 new car dealers warned on Wednesday that dealers who accept additional deals under the rebates program face a growing risk that they may not be paid back.

This should work out good...sell a Bk Bank to a bigger near BK Bank...

Expected BBVA Guaranty buy hailed, eyes on capital
www.reuters.com...

MADRID (Reuters) - BBVA's expected purchase of troubled Texas lender Guaranty Financial Group will boost its southern U.S. strategy, but analysts are keeping close tabs on the bank's capital levels.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, Spain's second-largest bank with a market capitalization of $60 billion, is expected to win a U.S. government-run auction to buy Guaranty, sources familiar with the situation told Reuters on Wednesday.

The Spanish bank declined to comment on the auction, whose result was expected to be announced by the end of the week.

BBVA has long targeted the Spanish-speaking niche market in the United States as a snug fit with its operations in Mexico, where it owns the country's biggest bank, Bancomer.

The expected purchase of Guaranty, with $14 billion in assets, would also meld well with its 2007 purchase of Compass, which has nearly 600 branches over Texas, Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Colorado and New Mexico.

But analysts are focusing on any damage this buy, or upcoming ones, might do to BBVA's capital levels, with its core capital -- a bank's main buffer to protect against losses -- at 6.9 percent.

~
Loan defaults in Spain are also rising as unemployment soars to 18 percent, whittling banks' capital.

Fitch cuts European bank hybrid debt ratings
www.reuters.com...

[edit on 8/20/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Wonder if BBVA is gonna be able to play the numbers game with the FDIC help like BB&T did with the Colonial deal???

Read the ticker on it

reply to post by redhatty
Oh yeah...we're gonna eat it...raw...no spices or MSG...

Five Reasons Why Negative Equity Could Kill GDP Growth
www.minyanville.com...

How Big Is the Negative-Equity Problem?

According to data released by First American CoreLogic, as of June 30, about 15 million US residential properties were worth less than the mortgages owed on the properties. This represents about 32% of all mortgaged residential properties. The report also estimated that there are an additional 2.5 million mortgaged properties that were approaching negative equity. This means that negative equity and near negative equity mortgages represent almost 38% of all residential properties with a mortgage in the US.

Three states account for roughly half of all mortgage borrowers in a negative-equity position. Nevada at 66% had the highest percentage, followed by Arizona at 51% and Florida at 49%. Michigan at 48% and California at 42% were fourth and fifth in the rankings.

According to the same report, the aggregate property value for loans in a negative-equity position was $3.4 trillion. This figure can be thought of as the value of a subset of properties that are at high risk of default. In California, the aggregate value of homes that are in negative equity was $969 billion, followed by Florida at $432 billion, New Jersey at $146 billion, Illinois at $146 billion, and Arizona at $140 billion.

In a recent report, Deutsche Bank estimated that the number of US mortgage holders facing negative equity would approach 48% within 2 years. Others have offered estimates of around 30%.

Approximately two-thirds of owner-occupied housing in the US has a mortgage. This implies that currently, roughly 24% of US households are in a negative equity or near negative-equity position with respect to their home. If Deutsche Bank’s estimates were to prove accurate, this figure could rise to about 33% within 2 years.

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Then why, will China want to buy or invest into the US mortgage business?

China to Buy $2 Billion Worth of US Mortgages

Under the PPIP program launched earlier this year the U.S. government plans to seed a number of public-private investment funds that would combine taxpayer money with private capital to buy as much as $40 billion in toxic securities from banks.

www.cnbc.com...

reply to post by marg6043

Then why, will China want to buy or invest into the US mortgage business?

Hmmm...maybe...

1) They want us to keep up the condition of our housing, so when we default it will be in good condition for them to move into...

2) They want the actual papers, so when they throw us out it will appear legal beagle...



Dumb CNBS talking heads...report StarBucks is increasing prices on items and they don't know why...

DUH...Sugar/Cocoa/Coffee/losses are going through the Roof...WTH???

Anyone for a $7 cup of Coffee???

[edit on 8/20/2009 by Hx3_1963]

One more thing that could derail any comeback efforts... that being the baby boomers retiring in droves and taking their money out of the markets

Pensions' Private-Equity Cash Reduced 59% as Profits Shrink
Major U.S. pension funds have recouped less than half of the $53.8 billion in cash they've invested in private-equity funds started since 2000. All told, they haven't seen a paper profit in seven years. That means less money for the plans' retirees.

source

Do you hear the drums???

The foreign creditors are moving away from the United States, plain and simple. The big bold red series shows the Grand Net US$-based bond reduction in net flow change from a high around $950 billion in early 2007 to a figure now approaching only $200 billion, thus a severe cut in net inflow. The greater alarm comes from the USCorporate Bonds in the yellow series, whose net flow change is down from a plus $600 billion high at the same time to a slight net outflow negative figure now. The USAgency Mortgage Bonds in chartreuse/mauve/pink have net flow change with peak of plus $300 billion at the same time to a net outflow of a frightening $150 billion now. Since the important peak for mortgage and corporate bonds, the USTreasurys in blue series have recovered from a $200 billion net positive inflow to a $400 billion net inflow. However, one should suspect that the USFed is purchasing the USTreasurys from convenient accounts bearing foreign names, using American funds, and laced with sinister motives founded in deception. Foreigners in all likelihood are not the primary purchasers.

The foreign purchase declines from peak levels two years ago have fallen off a cliff, much like that of Acapulco. The image of a brave diver is also quite vivid, as risk is determined by the shifting water (liquidity) level. The United States credit markets are losing their legitimate liquidity and increasingly are turning to the desperate reckless alternative, namely the dreaded MONETIZATION. Mortgages in the United States must maintain funding from the USFed and USGovt by direct purchase, no longer a market action. There are mainly sellers. The corporations in the US must maintain funding from a more desperate means. See the Samurai Bonds offered in Japanese Yen denomination, the ones growing in popularity. My view is that a good slice of USGovt Treasury Bonds will be denominated in foreign currency routinely within one year, if the US$ system survives in its current form that long. The conclusion is clear from the messages, both graphic and statistical, that THE US$-BASED BONDS OF ALL TYPES WILL RELY ON DIRECT MONETIZATION VERY SOON OR IMMEDIATELY.

Full article with Chart Porn

and....

CBO’s Long-Term Projections for
Social Security: 2009 Update PDF Warning

Nice Run today


www.sierrachart.com...




www.sierrachart.com...




and we are still in this triangle PERFECTLY



I am going to bet my life on this one too.. The break upwards of this funnel will send us around 1100 on SP 500


[edit on 20-8-2009 by GreenBicMan]

It was nice and steady today very resilient despite the unemployment anomolies. Probably the optomistic executive outlook carried more weight. Tonight the Nikkei pulled back 80 points they were probably expecting the US markets to jump 2 percent last trading session.

reply to post by redhatty


That one chart is uuuuuugggggllllllyyyyy, WOOOOO!!!!!

Seriously though, that chart is horribly telling. That almost vertical drop and what appears to be like it hit a rock while falling off the cliff, is not very good at all.

So I guess if we have no real buyers of our debt it might end up being cheaper to burn the cash instead of buying firewood. :shk:

[edit on 20-8-2009 by Hastobemoretolife]

reply to post by redhatty


At most in those last 2 charts it looks like DXY could get as low as 72 and take off

those are 2 quite bullish charts actually IMO (last 2)

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by redhatty

 

At most in those last 2 charts it looks like DXY could get as low as 72 and take off

those are 2 quite bullish charts actually IMO (last 2)

Did you even read the WORDS in the article???

I doubt it, as you are calling BULLISH

gods help us all

reply to post by redhatty


Im telling you what the chart formations look like for the dollar, looks to be a lagging indicator to this market

[edit on 20-8-2009 by GreenBicMan]

reply to post by redhatty


Looks like dollar support near 76 rather than a dive off a cliff, but apparently its direct Fed intervention keeping the dollar up as the article states. Once there is enough inflation to justify interest rate hikes the dollar will rebound but until then who knows.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by redhatty

 

At most in those last 2 charts it looks like DXY could get as low as 72 and take off

those are 2 quite bullish charts actually IMO (last 2)

You can't just look at a chart and decide whether or not it's going to be "Bearish" or "Bullish" .. I know in the Stock Market you don't need to read the news or be up to date on economic data to make a quick buck .. but the rest of the economy is still operating under normal economic principle.

The last two charts are actually significantly more profound when you take 1999-2009 data on the Dollars movement. With out this data, you're missing a crucial visual guide. The dollars long term trend has been deeply negative ever since the Dot Com crash .. the inflation in the past 3 years have been especially bad, as the Dollar continued its decline. Over all it was a 24+% decline in overall value in relation to other currencies.. so bad at one point 1 US Dollar's ratio was .5 Euros, .3 Pounds .9 for the Canadian .. all three are records.

If you look at the 06-09 charts you would see a steep decline and a sharp V shape, as in October with the market crash the US Dollar held it's longest rally in over 15 years.. and since then has been in decline, and then stagnate. The "stagnation" is the "cliff" .. We are balancing on a point where the Dollar potentially recovers, or declines further.. the articles main point being foreign creditors are moving away, which potentially could push the Dollar over the edge, and thus, the chart moves south. For you and I and every one else that means a much longer depression and inflation of commodities like heating oil, gasoline, electricity, food, you know... everything not counted in Inflation reports.

I have no idea how you come to the conlusion it's Bullish? Mind explaining?

edit to fix a minor issue.



[edit on 8/20/2009 by Rockpuck]

reply to post by Rockpuck
I thank you sir for taking the time to post this most important information...

"we've" seen the $ inflation/decline charts, but, being as he only knows the 200/50/20 ema's technicals and has confessed to not knowing squat about fiscal/monetary/commodity trades...I put little faith in his "bullish" outlooks... :shk:

It's the "Economy" $...

[edit on 8/20/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
Looks like dollar support near 76 rather than a dive off a cliff, but apparently its direct Fed intervention keeping the dollar up as the article states. Once there is enough inflation to justify interest rate hikes the dollar will rebound but until then who knows.

I am someone who thinks the dollar pretty much sucks as a long term holding (as all fiat currencies do since central bankers have made it their mission to depreciate the paper). But since this is 'up to the minute', I like the dollar if oil goes to around 80 dollars/barrel. I say that because I believe oil has a profound effect on dollar appreciation/depreciation just as much as the dollar has a profound effect on oil. The dollar isn't going into the shadows yet...And the eurozone sucks just as much. I only trade euros and sterling vs. the usd anyway. All the other currencies I don't trade much unless it is a commodity play, then I will buy the canadian dollar(cad) or australian dollar (aud).

[edit on 20-8-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

Originally posted by redhatty

CBO’s Long-Term Projections for
Social Security: 2009 Update PDF Warning

Nobody talks about this. Social security is a much larger shoe to drop than commercial real estate or credit card losses! This is going to be like biblical plague. The issue is going to come up pretty soon too. I say, around the middle of 2010-middle of 2011 this will actually be a 'real' issue rather than something that will happen but nobody is worried about yet.

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
Nobody talks about this. Social security is a much larger shoe to drop than commercial real estate or credit card losses! This is going to be like biblical plague. The issue is going to come up pretty soon too. I say, around the middle of 2010-middle of 2011 this will actually be a 'real' issue rather than something that will happen but nobody is worried about yet.

Ah but you probably realize ths, although most americans don't..

The whole Health Care reform, "public option" fiasco is designed to immediately HIDE the problems with SS & to effectively kick the can down the road a bit more.

reply to post by redhatty


Interesting that you brought that up.

I know they are now talking about passing the "reform" bill through reconciliation, or the bill will be deficit neutral. I don't know how they are going to do it, unless they are planning to keep the current deficit levels that we are currently at. Which spells big big trouble for us. Just look at the latest article you just posted.

So that leads me to wonder if there is a war going on up there in Washington behind the scenes between Geithner, Bereneke, and Obama.

So could the "stimulus" package passed earlier this year actually a convenient cover to increase the deficit in order for them to pass this health care bill?