The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate


Perspective and Falsities are different to me.

I personally think this guy is a mouthpiece for some other goon, but nevertheless I will watch those videos when I get a chance.

If you guys like this guy thats cool, I really don't care and I like other opinions, but I would just not blindly follow this guy w/o your own research.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Investment and economics are two entirely different things.. One can be bearish in regards to investment, and bullish in regards to the economy. The two no longer correlate.. it's not surprising to me Peter has made this year his best, while declaring the economy in total ruin all the while. And it certainly doesn't diminish my respect for him.

KD on the other had is a sensationalist .. his economic theories are sound .. but he often gets carried away and turns sound economic theories into wild and exaggerated stories.

Originally posted by pause4thought
reply to post by Rockpuck

 

Point taken. But the apathy is so great out there that someone who doesn't pull their punches can draw attention to important issues in a way a calm, collected type will not likely achieve. That's not to take away from Peter Schiff - the two can actually complement each other, serving different audiences, as it were.

Nice call on the media. You've clearly not reached your conclusion lightly.


reply to post by Rockpuck

 

Maybe you were right & he was wrong. It doesn't prove we should write him off. One piece of evidence doesn't prove a case. I just think you're being a little hasty.

Anyway, check out his videos & draw your own conclusions. (I think it might be a faster internet connection you need, not a processor - unless you're on a dinosaur.)

I am assuming you were trying to quote me and not RP on the 2nd paragraph? Or am I wrong?

Well, if I am being hasty from day 1 on this thread I think I said I hate people being misinformed/mislead and I would be here to try to clean that up. Seems like most of that is gone, and seriously I really dont mind the opinion, but when I think it is pretty much made up/outright lie - then I logically in my mind must write off a lot of what he says

I will be watching videos (cpu = 256mg ram - long story) when I get some upgrading done here

reply to post by Rockpuck


well you are right he was bullish last year in market and overall outlook was negative..

this year he said he has been making large $$$ in brazil etc...

i think 2008 was 85% of everyone's worst year ever

reply to post by GreenBicMan


I did very well in 2008! .. well until my little business collapsed .. then the whole loosing my job thing..

Ok, maybe 2008 did suck .. but trading wise I had a yearly profit.

2009 .. well 2009 is turning out to be the year that didn't exist. A little trading through march that didn't do entirely to well, but not to bad either, and no job to speak of lol. Looking back I suspect if anyone asks me what I did in 2009 I can say "Nothing. Literally ... nothing". My interview on Friday, 130 peoples for interviews.

No longer surprising though.

Mistakes made by the ruling class are usually covered up by tax payers' money, so people like Denninger, who point out wrong doings, get bashed because the "truth" is covered up. But in many cases he is right, only the culprits get away with it because of the indolent and easy going citizens.

reply to post by GreenBicMan

If you guys like this guy thats cool, I really don't care and I like other opinions, but I would just not blindly follow this guy w/o your own research.

As I said on the previous page, I don't put him in a 'right' box or a 'wrong' box. No-one is suggesting blindly following. That's quite patronizing.

The guy's far from perfect. But he does understand the big picture.


[PS Apologies for leaving the wrong name in the 'reply to box - I've fixed it now.]

reply to post by DangerDeath


That's pretty close to what sociologists have been saying since C. Wright Mills.

reply to post by Rockpuck


Well you didn't do well early in the year because we had such high volatility.

Remember, VIX was at a much higher level, and for guys like me and you = death.

Most of my auto-programs lost in 2008 except for 2 of them but all won in 2006-2007.

Volatility is a very hard thing to trade unless you have "trained" in that environment.

So when you see VIX get high time for guys like us to get out, or you could get software and SIM the volatility in 2008 and try to discretionary trade it.

Or maybe you just got lucky as well. Sometimes it comes down to that (not saying you did, but 2008 was very tough to win money IMO unless you had margin accts) were you long all?

You have already seen it once.. how do you think you would fare again? You should have picked up many tips and stuff just by hanging out on this thread, different time periods..

Did you see that volume chart I made you and Stander a while back?

Maybe try something like that... Don't lag too far behind the game if you are going to be playing.. you should seriously at least think about devoting some of your "free-er" time to it IMO

reply to post by pause4thought


no apologies needed, and now that i know where you are coming from I can understand that

unfortunatly when i read things i skip over words (cant help it lol) so if i miss something you say just put it out there on retard alert for me

anyways gotta run later

[edit on 5-8-2009 by GreenBicMan]

reply to post by GreenBicMan


I'll refer back to that to save your face when the whole system goes belly-up.

You still might need a plane ticket, though.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan

Well, if I am being hasty from day 1 on this thread I think I said I hate people being misinformed/mislead and I would be here to try to clean that up. Seems like most of that is gone, and seriously I really dont mind the opinion, but when I think it is pretty much made up/outright lie - then I logically in my mind must write off a lot of what he says

Funny, I feel the same way about a lot of what you post....the term "pumper" comes to mind.....at least guys like KD link their opinions to actual economic numbers, as opposed to EVERY MSM bubblevision source that can only yell "GREEEEEN SHOOOOTS!!!!!"...

Yes, he can be dramatic, but when you combine what he is trying to impart with other very respectable sources outside the bankster's control, he is spot on.

BTW, he started his public warnings during the tech bubble because what the market was doing had no correlation to reality..(sound familiar????)...and he called that collapse as well...if you paid attention to him like I did back then, odds are you would have saved yourself a nice chunk of change...you might do well to listen to him this time.



[edit on 5-8-2009 by RolandBrichter]

reply to post by GreenBicMan

This time, it's virtual gamble to say that if things are happening above the green line made of two lowest points of the session, the curve won't breach it at all.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/84ed7ae34c17.jpg[/atsimg]

About half of U.S. mortgages seen underwater by 2011
www.reuters.com...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The percentage of U.S. homeowners that owe more than their house is worth will nearly double to 48 percent in 2011 from 26 percent at the end of March as home prices continue to fall, Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday.

Home price declines will have their biggest impact on "conforming" loans that meet underwriting guidelines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bank said in a report. Conforming loans make up the bulk of mortgages, and are typically less risky because of stringent requirements.

Of conforming loans, 41 percent will be "underwater" by the first quarter of 2011, up from 16 percent at the end of the first quarter 2009, it said.

"For many, the home has morphed from piggy bank to albatross," Deutsche analysts Karen Weaver and Ying Shen said in the report.

Fannie, Freddie regulator to leave post: official
www.reuters.com...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - James Lockhart, the regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, will soon step down after more than three years as overseer for the mortgage finance companies, an administration official said.

Lockhart will step down very soon as head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the official said, but no decision has been made about who might be a suitable long-term replacement, nor what role that person would have in shaping housing policy.

When asked by Reuters in an interview if he is leaving soon, Lockhart would not comment on any move but said he was proud of his work as a regulator and was looking forward to returning to private life.

"It's just time to get back to the family," he said.

[edit on 8/5/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by anachryon
90.93 on the Yen. Looking over the edge of the abyss, we are.

UPDATE 1-MBIA posts lower second-quarter profit
www.reuters.com...

* Reports profit of $4.30 a share

* MBIA shares closed down 3.83 pct at $5.53

NEW YORK, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Bond insurer MBIA Inc (MBI.N) reported a lower second-quarter profit on Thursday, hurt by losses on mortgage-related securities.

MBIA said net income fell to $894.7 million, or $4.30 a share, compared to $1.7 billion or $7.14 cents a share for the same period a year ago.

Analysts on average expected a loss of $1.08 a share, according to Reuters Estimates. It was not immediately clear whether this was comparable to the $4.30 a share figure.

Armonk, New York-based MBIA and its smaller rival Ambac Financial Group (ABK.N) have struggled to get new business after crippling losses from risky mortgage securities and rating agencies stripped the bond insurers of their triple-A ratings.

MBIA shares closed at $5.53 on Wednesday.

UPDATE 1-Taylor Bean shuts mortgage lending operations
www.reuters.com...

* Will not fund or close pending home loans

* Freddie Mac will no longer buy Taylor Bean loans

* Action follows reported search of office

NEW YORK, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Taylor, Bean and Whitaker Mortgage Corp, the 12th-largest U.S. mortgage lender, has shut down its mortgage lending operations after the Federal Housing Administration barred it from making loans that the agency insures.

The closure came a day after the FHA punished the Ocala, Florida-based lender for having failed to submit a required annual financial report and "misrepresented" that there were no unresolved issues with an auditor that had in fact discovered "irregular transactions that raised concerns of fraud."

In an email posted on the Ocala Star-Banner newspaper's website, closely held Taylor Bean said it must cease all mortgage lending immediately, and will not close or fund any pending home loans.

It said it expects to continue servicing mortgage loans "as it restructures its business in the wake of the events.

Taylor Bean also revealed that it can no longer sell loans to Freddie Mac (FRE.N), the mortgage financier, after it was earlier cut off by Government National Mortgage Association, better known as Ginnie Mae.

The Wall Street Journal said Chairman Lee Farkas, in an email to staff, said: "Today will be the last day of operations for TB&W. I have done everything possible to try to save it, but I couldn't." He also said all except "essential" employees will be "terminated today," the newspaper said.

The company, Farkas and spokeswoman Melissa Spata did not return several phone and e-mail requests for comment.

Commercial property execs expect more bad news
www.reuters.com...

* 93 pct say real estate values are lower than last year

* 82 percent say values will continue to deteriorate

By Ilaina Jonas

NEW YORK, Aug 5 (Reuters) - An overwhelming majority of U.S. commercial real estate executives believe their industry is suffering and expect it get worse, according to a survey by the Real Estate Roundtable released on Wednesday.

Some 93 percent of the 120 chief executives, chairmen, presidents, board members and others polled said commercial real estate prices are lower than they were a year ago, according to the Roundtable, which represents commercial real estate owners, developers, lenders and managers.

Eighty-two percent expect values to remain roughly the same or erode further in the next 12 months, the survey said.

Hotels, office buildings, shopping centers, warehouses and apartment building owners and lenders have been grappling with declining rents and rising vacancies. Meanwhile, prices for these assets have sunk has the credit crisis has dried up sources to finance sales or refinance maturing loans.

Colin Dyer, chief executive officer of Jones Lange LaSalle, one of the world's largest real estate services companies, on Wednesday said that prices for U.S. assets have fallen by as much as 50 percent.

"Over the last year or so the commercial real estate industry has been stuck between a rock and a hard place," Jeffrey DeBoer, Roundtable chief executive said. "The rock that we see is the fundamentals, which continue to create problems for the industry. The hard place is continuing to not move and that is the frozen credit markets, in terms of getting the ability to finance or refinance debt."

[edit on 8/5/2009 by Hx3_1963]

More Homeowners ‘Upside Down’ on Mortgages
blogs.wsj.com...

Negative Equity: 16 Million Homeowners Underwater
www.calculatedriskblog.com...

Georgian Bank Says Bad Loans Surged 10-Fold in ‘09 (Update1)
www.bloomberg.com...

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Georgian Bancorporation Inc., the second-biggest Atlanta-based bank, is still seeking to raise at least $25 million after a 10-fold jump in bad loans in six months, Chief Executive Officer John Poelker said.

“We felt along with most people that the real estate situation in Atlanta would have begun to correct itself by the summer of 2009,” Poelker, who replaced founder Gordon Teel at the closely held bank last month, said in an interview today. “Nobody expected this downturn in real estate to be as widespread and deep as it turned out.”

Georgian, which earlier this year scrapped a plan to seek U.S. bank-bailout funds, had $306.4 million in nonperforming loans as of June 30, compared with $28.4 million at the end of 2008, according to Poelker. Of the bank’s $1.77 billion of total loans, $1.36 billion were for property. The capital-raising, announced in May, will target private-equity firms or other institutions, a shift from earlier plans to seek funds from shareholders and local investors, Poelker said.

“Having 17 percent nonperforming loans is horrible,” said Lee Bradley, founder of Southeast Financial Holdings Inc., an Atlanta firm that helps bank raise capital. “Usually banks that have a 20 percent ratio are dead men walking.”

[edit on 8/5/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by Hx3_1963

 

It sounds to me like the panic team is getting the public ready for the horrible figures that will be showing with the unemployment rates.

Just nothing to see here population just trust us, we pulled out of a depression.

Actually there are 'rumors' that the unemployment number will be much better than expected. I don't know how substantial those rumors are, but don't be short

Natural gas inventories are tomorrow. +61bcf is the expected number. If it is less, with the recent supplies distruptions and companies announcing scaling back, you will see natural gas fly over 10%. And I will be buying up contracts up the wazoo tomorrow the second the number is announced if bullish

bloomberg.com...

Originally posted by pause4thought
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

I'll refer back to that to save your face when the whole system goes belly-up.

You still might need a plane ticket, though.

I don't think so, coz the governments are watching the kids playing whilst making sure that matches are out of their hands.

reply to post by GreenBicMan

To me the weekly chart is signaling for 1 more up week because when we break out of a MA usually gets overbought then immed. shorted back under where it consolidates and then breaks again for real this time either testing again or incases of times like these.. just takes off..

Classic narrowing range leading to a breakout to the downside today as you have been explaining. Consolidation the rest of the day seemed pretty solid so we will see if it breaks out again to the upside tomorrow.

I feel like I'm way too late to the party to go long so I'm just standing aside and watching for now. You really almost need a trend reversal rather than just a quick pullback to make money shorting.

Not sure where KD was going with the bank scare report this morning, but the dollar index supporting the markets I have noticed on my own. When Redhatty posted that story about the ES mini in lock step with the dollar index it struck me as merely coincidental, since the comparison is out there to be seen. Denninger is not subtle and his targeted audience apparently needs inflammatory rhetorical points to anchor his arguments.