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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on Aug, 3 2009 @ 09:34 PM
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Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate

I was thinking of playing UNG for a week or so since Natural gas seems to be bottoming out, and the long range weather computer models are starting to show signs of the Cape Verde hurricane season warming up. I looked at the billions of cubic feet of estimated world inventory and there is no shortage by any means. I still think Gas might get a pop in price with the first hurricane though because a lot of people play the gas markets.

[edit on 3-8-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]


Just trade UNG on inventory days, that is what I try to do when I am not busy at work. Inventory report comes out at 10:30AM:

www.eia.doe.gov...

And it automatically updates on Thursday at 10:30 every morning and you can get the inventory increase estimates on bloomberg around Tuesday. I like to just buy right after the report comes out for the pop (or drop) depending if it is above or below estimates (above is bad, below is good). I want to buy options on UNG rather than buy the stock though so I can get more bang for my buck.




posted on Aug, 3 2009 @ 10:58 PM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


They won't snap, because the media says that everything is cool. It's 1984.

The snapping point is something that none of us want to see, because it'll come too late. The media is so strong that the snapping point will only come when (if?) we suffer a full-blown collapse, and people can't live in blissful ignorance. Here's hoping that it doesn't get to that point.

My two cents.



posted on Aug, 3 2009 @ 11:04 PM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


We did the .vix up and the market up I believe..

That would fit into that 12% theory we were talking about..

Again, which way, I dont know, but volatility IMO is what that means



posted on Aug, 3 2009 @ 11:13 PM
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I'm tellin' ya...

This is one Schizophrenic thread...

9/10 talk about market news/data...

Then there's like 4 who are in a world of their own who act like the rest of us are invisible and talk amongst themselves...

Strange...

Shanghai Composite 3,439.38 Aug 3 Down 23.21 (0.67%)
Taiwan Weighted 7,040.16 11:53PM ET Down 16.55 (0.23%)

Gold holding steady around $956

[edit on 8/3/2009 by Hx3_1963]



posted on Aug, 3 2009 @ 11:23 PM
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Originally posted by Hx3_1963
I'm tellin' ya...

This is one Schizophrenic thread...

9/10 talk about market news/data...

Then there's like 4 who are in a closed world of their own who act like the rest or us are invisible and talk amongst themselves...

Strange...


I've tried to bounce between the two groups. It's fun.



posted on Aug, 3 2009 @ 11:26 PM
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Originally posted by theWCH

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
I'm tellin' ya...

This is one Schizophrenic thread...

9/10 talk about market news/data...

Then there's like 4 who are in a closed world of their own who act like the rest or us are invisible and talk amongst themselves...

Strange...


I've tried to bounce between the two groups. It's fun.


I dont have a problem holding 2 mens hands in public



posted on Aug, 3 2009 @ 11:28 PM
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Originally posted by theWCH

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
I'm tellin' ya...

This is one Schizophrenic thread...

9/10 talk about market news/data...

Then there's like 4 who are in a closed world of their own who act like the rest or us are invisible and talk amongst themselves...

Strange...


I've tried to bounce between the two groups. It's fun.

I guess it could be, if all you do is look at fudged/false hopes that only matter to TPTB and their free money, earning interest at the Fed reserve fund, while the citizens are bent over waiting for their "just desert/reaming" :shk:



posted on Aug, 3 2009 @ 11:30 PM
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My idea of "fun" has changed slightly, in the past few years. I'm mostly coming to terms with the fact that the next 20 years of my life are probably going to suck (if the Austrian economists are right.)

And if the Keynesian economists are right, then party on!


[edit on 3-8-2009 by theWCH]



posted on Aug, 3 2009 @ 11:35 PM
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30 MIN Timescale chart shows the length on this run in 2 sections..

Along with common retrace. levels


1235am

Little closer

[edit on 3-8-2009 by GreenBicMan]


233 tick shows a little different trend


[edit on 3-8-2009 by GreenBicMan]



posted on Aug, 3 2009 @ 11:36 PM
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Originally posted by theWCH
My idea of "fun" has changed slightly, in the past few years. I'm mostly coming to terms with the fact that the next 20 years of my life are probably going to suck (if the Austrian economists are right.)

And if the Keynesians are right, party on!

[edit on 3-8-2009 by theWCH]


Being as Papa 'Bama is having his press pic's with a row of Keyn's behind him...our fate is probably sealed in debt...keep an eye to KD's 3 Banks he's watching...

Nuff said... :shk: ...maybe not...


ROFL! FDIC "Tells Banks" To Quit Cooking The Books!
market-ticker.org...!-FDIC-Tells-Banks-To-Quit-Cooking-The-Books!.html

Oh My God.


I write two Tickers on The FDIC and banks' refusal to take their marks, and gee, you'd think someone over there might have read them!

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said late Monday that banks should recognize losses on home loans promptly and warned that failure to do so could delay efforts to mitigate the financial impact.

Institutions must analyze the collectibility of the loans they hold for investment at least every quarter, the FDIC said in a statement on its Web site.

Banks then have to keep an appropriate allowance for loan and lease losses, covering estimated credit losses on individually evaluated loans that are deemed to be impaired, and on groups of loans with similar risk characteristics, the regulator said.

That's just too much.

Let me put it in simple English, Ms. Bair. Here 'ya go, in formal letter format:

From: The Tickerguy
To: Ms. Sheila Bair, FDIC Chairwoman
Regarding: Your FDIC Statement Nonsense

Dear Ms. Bair;

You know full well that essentially every bank in the nation, including the largest ones that went through the so-called "Stress Tests", have been intentionally mis-marking loans "held for investment" at or near par even when there is essentially no chance these loans will be satisfied in full, and that this practice has been going on since the housing crisis began.

These include defaulted loans; there are literally millions of Americans that are living rent-free, right now, because their lender has sent out a NOD and then done nothing else, despite never paying another penny toward their mortgage.

Why is the bank doing this?

That's not hard to figure out.

If the banks foreclose and sell the property then the sale price becomes the indisputable mark to market on that paper, and avoiding that mark is absolutely critical or these banks would be forced to recognize their own insolvency.

Thus we have people who live in their houses for more than a year with nothing more than a NOD in the mailbox, we have people who have had their homes foreclosed upon and then the bank has refused to perfect title (leading to stories in the media of foreclosed owners being chased for neglected upkeep, code violations and similar) and we have banks that have made a practice of bidding themselves in the foreclosure auction for the full mortgage amount, which of course is dramatically more than anyone else will pay for it. They wind up "owning" their own foreclosure but the paper remains marked at the full mortgage amount, since that's what they bid, even though there's not a snowball's chance in Hell that any real buyer would pay anything close to that amount (evidenced by the lack of bids at or above that amount at the auction!)

I have repeatedly stated (and shown my work) that there was likely $3 trillion in total "bad paper" in the banking system in residential mortgages alone.

We know for a fact that recovery is running in the neighborhood of 40% (including both first and second lines) from those loans that have been followed through from default to recovery. We know for a fact that bid lists of defaulted second lines circulate all the time and trade literally at a few pennies on the dollar; thus, a second line behind a defaulted first loan is essentially worth zero.

We also know that about $1 trillion in bad loans have been written down thus far, which means there is two trillion more to go, and then we get to talk about commercial real estate where "extend and pretend" has even become part of the vernacular of the trade!

Ms. Bair, this sort of misdirection is the worst sort of tripe. You have two banks with self-identified negative Tier Capital Ratios, a circumstance that is never supposed to happen, but it has.

You have a third identified bank that had its last real chance for a rescue evaporate Friday and it reported, at the same time, a quarterly loss of more than five times its market capitalization.

All three of these institutions should have been seized LAST FRIDAY, but there's a problem with doing that, isn't there Ms. Bair? It's this table here showing how much money you have left in your insurance fund, and the average loss for a seized institution:
Much more at link...

[edit on 8/3/2009 by Hx3_1963]



posted on Aug, 3 2009 @ 11:50 PM
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One thing that is pretty interesting (and this is a crude drawing, so bare with me)

But on 60 min timescale you can really see the "steps" this has been taking and it always seems to bounce off the previous mini-trends highs

So if this trend continues it will bounce off of the upmost blue line as support

www.sierrachart.com...


little closer

[edit on 3-8-2009 by GreenBicMan]



posted on Aug, 4 2009 @ 12:07 AM
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Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
Both the Nasdaq and S&P broke millennial resistance levels today so you would think there would be some follow through buying this week? Seems too easy for investors to just decide that this is the thousand marker so its time to sell.

[edit on 3-8-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]


Well.. I dont know if we have done that yet my friend.

The white line I think is what you are referring to?

The diagnol slope we just crossed in blue is R1 and the upper is R2 (also in blue)

This REALLY shows the power of R2 and with about a 2 YEAR DOWNTREND YOU CAN ALMOST GUARANTEE SOME ACTION if breaking that to the upside.


* Here *

all the way back to 2004 to give you some perspective

In that First one R1is actually not shown.. it IS in this one.. the first one there was just another downtrend

[edit on 4-8-2009 by GreenBicMan]

[edit on 4-8-2009 by GreenBicMan]



posted on Aug, 4 2009 @ 12:18 AM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 

One thing that is pretty interesting (and this is a crude drawing, so bare with me)

So if this trend continues it will bounce off of the upmost blue line as support...

And crash...into the great abyss...
...thought you'd like this post as yer such a Graph-oholic...





Better view...

Hmmm... :shk:

[edit on 8/4/2009 by Hx3_1963]



posted on Aug, 4 2009 @ 12:25 AM
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reply to post by Hx3_1963
 


Your 3rd graph is a good example of when support turns resistance..

Take a horiz. line under the support points (3 of them I think in the beginning of it) and extend it out..

You see what it used it as resistance and resistance held and it tumbled back..

Our run before our crash was more "exponential" in degrees although same could happen here with that white line I suppose in my last post..

But a good technician would have eaten that leg down shorting that way back when ..

So if we break this you would be bullish most likely? Soon there will be no more charts to find with a downward slope like this IMO to fall back on when making a case to the downside - again still room to be cautious - but def. not 50% as much as about 4 months ago



posted on Aug, 4 2009 @ 12:34 AM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 
Well...since yer da "Chart Dude"...

Anyway to take one of the charts I posted (or one of yer choosing)...say 6 months prior to that tanking...and run one of yer "Green Shoot" line analysis on it and compare them?

Hmmm...

Shanghai Composite 3,407.54 1:20AM ET Down 55.05 (1.59%)
BSE 30 15,855.10 1:26AM ET Down 69.13 (0.43%)
Straits Times 2,676.41 1:19AM ET Down 5.23 (0.20%)
Taiwan Weighted 6,952.08 1:16AM ET Down 104.63 (1.48%)

Gold $953.78

Oil $70.59

[edit on 8/4/2009 by Hx3_1963]



posted on Aug, 4 2009 @ 12:38 AM
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Good test here for the bottom of the 233 t



chart



posted on Aug, 4 2009 @ 12:41 AM
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Originally posted by Rockpuck
Tax receipts are at the lowest levels since 1930's....

So they will raise taxes..

Basically bleeding out those still left to pay......

Which happens to be the Middle Class...

How long will the people stand for it? When will they snap? Where is the breaking point?

What if something snaps and the government severely curtails its outlays following the example of California, which still appears on the map?

Rockpuck, is there any way you can dig out how much the Treasury took in during the auctions since the beginning of the present fiscal year? I can't find this info no matter what.



[edit on 8/4/2009 by stander]



posted on Aug, 4 2009 @ 12:45 AM
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Originally posted by Hx3_1963
reply to post by GreenBicMan
 
Well...since yer da "Chart Dude"...

Anyway to take one of the charts I posted (or one of yer choosing)...say 6 months prior to that tanking...and run one of yer "Green Shoot" line analysis on it and compare them?

Hmmm...

Shanghai Composite 3,407.54 1:20AM ET Down 55.05 (1.59%)
BSE 30 15,855.10 1:26AM ET Down 69.13 (0.43%)
Straits Times 2,676.41 1:19AM ET Down 5.23 (0.20%)
Taiwan Weighted 6,952.08 1:16AM ET Down 104.63 (1.48%)

Gold $953.78

Oil $70.59

[edit on 8/4/2009 by Hx3_1963]



Remember, hindsight is always 20/20 as well..

media.abovetopsecret.com...&action=view&id=35134



posted on Aug, 4 2009 @ 12:51 AM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 
Nice Charting, but, I was alluding to more of the current run up with 1928/29 charts vs 2008/2009...hmmm nice coincidence 80 yrs BTW...

Find one on the run up to "Chart" and compare...like the prior year to the crash...and compare...?

(yeah I *said* 6 months, but, guess that's a little to tight to see the run...)

[edit on 8/4/2009 by Hx3_1963]



posted on Aug, 4 2009 @ 12:55 AM
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I dont know where to get that info actually.. I dont know if it actally on yahoo even..

What I do see is in the 20's we had a actual "V" before the big fall

On our current drop we just went virtually straight down

I would like to see the percentages lined up right now for both but I dont know of any software (at least mine) that goes back that far I can actually play around with the percentage sequences and down the line etc..

If you find something let me know



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