The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Originally posted by stander

Originally posted by theWCH
reply to post by stander

 

Yes, but what are the R and R^2 values of that regression?

They are irrelevant, coz the intersection doesn't have any practical meaning -- at least I don't think it has. The correlation is not statistically significant; it's only r = 0.8 for for f(g), and the logarithmic regression has a better fit. But it just turned out that the intersection of f(x) and f(g) as linear functions took place on Obama's birthday.

Here are the data if you want to take a look at at it:

GREEN points
x-values: 3/26, 4/17, 5/8, 6/12, 7/31
y-values: 7925, 8131, 8575, 8799, 9172

RED points
x-values: 3/9, 4/7, 5/15, 6/24, 7/10.
y-values: 6547, 7790, 8267, 8230, 8147.

You may have found out that for the best fit, the regression line for the green points has a reliability factor R^2 = 0.98. So you can say that you are 98% sure that the Dow hits 10K for on January 16, 2010 -- but only if the conditions that have drawn the March/July max points are in place for the rest of the year development.


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/c4ca19091610.jpg[/atsimg]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan

Not one time have we ever been beaten up and never came back. We always charge for new highs and that is the "consumer" and bullish attitude of the United States markets. While we know the average person is hurt, my family was hurt very much so in the tech bust, but somehow came from that also..

But I am just a super huge believer of history repeating itself in the markets and so far it is unfolding without a very large margin of error on both sides.

Oh I believe we will come back of course...just not as quickly as the markets are anticipating. And markets have a lot of rallies, most of those turning out to hurt the most people. Not only in the stock markets, but look at real estate.

With that being said, the markets can rally for a MUCH longer time (like a year-2 years) but there will be another crisis right down the road because we haven't mended anything/

[edit on 2-8-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

reply to post by GreenBicMan

The test didn't completely fail. If you look at it once again, you see that the projection line that connects the min. points at 12:43 and 1:03 hit target at 3:58. But it took only 2 minutes to bring it down due to the high volume.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/8f0a5f1318f5.jpg[/atsimg]

But those two min. points should really be bellow the Previous Close line. Also, the first point is the min. point occurring between 12:00 and 12:59, and the second point is the min. point occurring between 1:00 and 1:59 -- to spread them apart for better accuracy. So these are the initial rules for the next test.

reply to post by RolandBrichter


Exactly, we can not compare our economy of today with the economy we had back during the great depression, actually down the line after that dark time in history we came on top of the world with the world wars.

This time is not going to be a world war or another invasion to put us back where we found ourselves back in the days as the most dominant and prosperous industrial nation in the world.

One thing that bothers me the most is that with all the resources our nation have our government rather than use those resources prefer to borrow and print money at will.

All in the pursue of supporting globalization.

Pity, it seems that the only country that doesn't enforce the protection of the nations wealth is our nation after all.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan

on my chart it shows the PE of the SP500 is 17.5 adjusted for inflation over the past 10 years

Hmmm...here's another SP500 chart...


GDP And Debt - In Video (Attached Images)
market-ticker.org...

Looks a little different than yours though... :shk:

Is The FDIC Broke And Covering It Up?
market-ticker.org...

[edit on 8/2/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Rockpuck


If the money has been used to cover the dirty lost of the banks itself it is obviously no enough, still is estimated that 10 trillion dollars of bad credit debt is floating around and hurting banks in other nations like the UK.

Here in the US the government is just funneling funds to keep the big banks afloat, but if you have been keeping up with the bank failures around the nation small banks are falling like flies.

But in September when the G-12 get together again the 10 trillion dollars of debt with be in the table.

No recovery until of those bad assets are deal with.

reply to post by Hx3_1963


It doesn't take a genius to figure out that the amount of small banks failure is getting out of hand for the FDIC to handle, but you will not get any news of what the FDIC is going through because the government is promoting slow down of the recession and grow.

Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by Hx3_1963

 

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that the amount of small banks failure is getting out of hand for the FDIC to handle, but you will not get any news of what the FDIC is going through because the government is promoting slow down of the recession and grow.

The government will promote an end of the recession and growth until they need to pass another stimulus. Everyone needs to realize that the government could have done everything they are doing now months before the March lows, but it didn't suit their doom and gloom agenda to stimulate the stock markets.

Default Increase Curbs Bankruptcy Lending as Recoveries Dwindle
www.bloomberg.com...

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Companies on the verge of bankruptcy are finding it harder and more expensive than ever to get loans to help nurse them back to health.

With corporate defaults at a six-year high, so-called debtor-in-possession financings dropped to about 23 percent of businesses failing to make debt payments so far this year, the lowest since at least 2003, according to a strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Lenders are charging those entering Chapter 11 reorganization a record 7.25 percentage points over benchmark interest rates, on average, even with borrowing costs for issuers of junk-rated bonds the cheapest since September.

DIP loans provide funds to continue operating normally while in Chapter 11. Less available financing will give fewer companies this option and drive more into liquidation, said Darin Schmalz, a director on the Fitch Ratings leveraged finance team in Chicago.

“The playbook is changing,” said Steven Smith, global head of leveraged finance and restructuring at UBS AG in New York. “Very little new capital is flowing into restructuring and Chapter 11 reorganization right now, which is potentially a huge problem. It’s very hard to reorganize companies without new capital.”

The number of businesses filing for liquidation under Chapter 7 of the bankruptcy code rose 60 percent to 30,035 last year, the most since at least 2000, according to the U.S. Courts Web site.

More at Links...

Geithner Says U.S. Unemployment May Peak in 2010, Recession Is `Easing'
www.bloomberg.com...

The U.S. unemployment rate may not peak until the second half of 2010, possibly necessitating another extension in unemployment benefits, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said.

Kentucky's Land Give-Away Shows How States May Worsen Budgets for Stimulus
www.bloomberg.com...

When the U.S. government made stimulus funds available to develop batteries for hybrid and all-electric vehicles, eight states waged a bidding war to lure manufacturers such as EnerSys and Exide Technologies and get a piece of the $2 billion pot.

[edit on 8/2/2009 by Hx3_1963]

This a great thread that even got me by surprise I thought that the Auction block for US treasury bonds was due in the fall but it seems that it was one going on recently, now wonder why the markets has been doing so good recently

The SHTF Turning Point Quietly Happened, Last Week – Have you been Paying Attention

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Guess what people China wasn't there

I posted that headline on this thread yesterday? Just a less sensational headline... ...guess I missed 26 Flags for over looking that...

Easy to miss things here...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Guess this has TPTB spooked now...had to do some digging to find buyers for the 7 yr...surprised Rick Santelli didn't comment more on this after the 2 prior lame auctions... :shk: ...of course he's been moved from "The Pit" to Corp HQ...a shorter leash I'd guess...

[edit on 8/2/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Sorry, I miss the last page after looking that Greenbicman had most of the post.

Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by Hx3_1963

 

Sorry, I miss the last page after looking that Greenbicman had most of the post.

No problem...as stated things get missed...I had QA beat though

Here's a nice long article for some insights...

Market Review: Weakening Dollar, Rising Urban Unemployment
www.globalresearch.ca...

[edit on 8/2/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Thanks for the link, is sad when you already know what is going on, and its very pitiful to see our own government with their big pom poms working like cheerleaders.

More pitiful is to see the markets hopeful looking at the green that is not there.

But what can we do, my friend.

I guess keeping the people oblivious of how bad our nation is doing is the priority right now.

As far as the FDIC is concerned it went bankrupt in 1991 or 92 I forget. But it did go bankrupt. It has 13billion left in the pot, with all indications it will go bankrupt again. Not that it matters, we will toss a few billion back into the fund. Id post a pretty graph, but I'm driving atm.

US Dollar Index Future - Spot Price
INDEX: DXY
www.marketwatch.com...

78.11

Change
-0.22 -0.29%

Aug 2, 2009 8:05 p.m.

Quotes are delayed by 20 min

Previous close
78.34

Gold $954.22

Pre-Markets
www.cnbc.com...

Asian Markets
finance.yahoo.com...

Bailout Banks Buying Treasuries Helping to Keep U.S. Rates Low
www.bloomberg.com...

Nikkei 225 10,353.81 9:17PM ET Down 3.02 (0.03%)
Straits Times 2,644.96 9:38PM ET Down 14.24 (0.54%)
Taiwan Weighted 7,048.69 9:18PM ET Down 29.02 (0.41%)

[edit on 8/2/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by Rockpuck
As far as the FDIC is concerned it went bankrupt in 1991 or 92 I forget. But it did go bankrupt. It has 13billion left in the pot, with all indications it will go bankrupt again. Not that it matters, we will toss a few billion back into the fund. Id post a pretty graph, but I'm driving atm.

The next bank to drop might be Guaranty (GFG) with $13.4 billion in assets and 160 branches in Texas and California...Carl Icahn has his hands in this one..

Here's the FDIC chart..




[edit on 2-8-2009 by RolandBrichter]

BOMBS AWAY!!!

Big Texas bank on verge of failure
July 31, 2009
money.cnn.com...

Troubles deepen for Colonial Bank
Saturday, August 01, 2009
al.com

Corus Bankshares losses widen; FDIC intervention possible
August 1, 2009
www.chicagotribune.com...

Nikkei 225 10,328.32 10:30PM ET Down 28.51 (0.28%)
Straits Times 2,653.92 11:34PM ET Down 5.28 (0.20%)
Taiwan Weighted 7,013.20 11:14PM ET Down 64.51 (0.91%)

[edit on 8/2/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Both the Hang Seng and the FTSE are up over 1 percent, should be another step up for stocks on Wall Street.

Without any serious inflation in sight even the bears are getting horny and dropping their shorts.

[edit on 3-8-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

While the US $ goes.....down, down down, in a burning ring of fire...