It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

page: 439
189
<< 436  437  438    440  441  442 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 10:18 PM
link   
reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate
 


Well I guess I really have to fall back on charts from 2003 and 1974 (I think it was, pretty sure) in this instance.

The 1974 would be the closest looking chart technically that I have seen compared to this big down move we had - in fact technically the one in 74 (one of those years) The move under the 200 EMA was even greater than it was this time around. So this really technically was not the worst crash or whatever you wanna call it etc..

2003 was where we did the stair-steps.. that is what is going on now.. these bear flags shoot lower and then we "stair-step" higher..

If you go back you have seen the bear flags I have highlighted and I think that trend continues, like I think we are in right now...

The longer term trend is up and if you have read all my posts the P&F charts are showing bullish moves up upwards 11,000 on dow and I think thats easily possible somewhere around end of year if we just keep this trend.

Like I have been saying, look to the NASDAQ as our leader.

Remember as well the 50 and 200 EMA's have NOT CROSSED yet in the DJIA AND SP 500. We will prob have price action go below then bounce back up just like we did when the nasdaq did the same thing.

You can watch these patterns occur over and over in history if you go back and look.




posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 10:21 PM
link   

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Well I thought the input was lower low at 11 and higher low at 1?

Maybe I was wrong - but it looks like you are "searching" a bit..

Like I said maybe I misunderstood

_____________________________________________________





Have you looked at PIVOT POINTS yet?

IMO they are pretty reliable and are really good for discretionary trading especially when you can line up a good moving average.



Here is how it works



____________________________________________________________




The PIVOT POINT is the area of most resistance and support.

Now when we break the pivot point up or down we usually head towards either R1 (which would be on top) or S1 (Which would be underneath)

Now both R1 and S1 are harder to take over even than the PP because if it breaks, it usually retests the line then heads towards R2 or S2 and that is a really good battleground.

If it breaks the "2's" there is a SUPER good chance it heads in the 2-3 zone and stays there the entire day.

Also there are many more nuances with PIVOT POINTS but you will have to watch it day by and see how the interact..

Like I said IMO these are great formulas and a lot of what you are seeing is attributed to these (a lot of day traders and floor brokers use these)

You will see a lot of "bounces" on these lines and once you input all the information in and have the 7 lines on your chart all day long you will be amazed on the "depth" of information this brings.




__________________________




FORUMLAS:





R1 = Resistance 1

R2 = Resistance 2

R3 = Resistance 3

THEN

S1 = Support 1

S2 = Support 2

S3 = Support 3


PIVOT POINT FORMULA :


PP = (H + L + C) / 3


Where

H = High

L= Low

C = Close


** OF YESTERDAY (THE DAY BEFORE) **



* R1 = (2*PP) - L

* R2 = PP + (H - L)

* R3 = H + 2*(PP-L)

* S1 = (2*PP) - H

* S2 = PP - (H - L)

* S3 = L - 2*(H - PP)



______________________________________________________


There are many other formulas that calculate these, but I believe in KISS and these IMO by FAR work the best for discretionary trading.

Have fun








here you go



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 10:41 PM
link   

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate
 


Well I guess I really have to fall back on charts from 2003 and 1974 (I think it was, pretty sure) in this instance.

The 1974 would be the closest looking chart technically that I have seen compared to this big down move we had - in fact technically the one in 74 (one of those years) The move under the 200 EMA was even greater than it was this time around. So this really technically was not the worst crash or whatever you wanna call it etc..

2003 was where we did the stair-steps.. that is what is going on now.. these bear flags shoot lower and then we "stair-step" higher..

If you go back you have seen the bear flags I have highlighted and I think that trend continues, like I think we are in right now...

The longer term trend is up and if you have read all my posts the P&F charts are showing bullish moves up upwards 11,000 on dow and I think thats easily possible somewhere around end of year if we just keep this trend.

Like I have been saying, look to the NASDAQ as our leader.

Remember as well the 50 and 200 EMA's have NOT CROSSED yet in the DJIA AND SP 500. We will prob have price action go below then bounce back up just like we did when the nasdaq did the same thing.

You can watch these patterns occur over and over in history if you go back and look.


There definitely needs to be consolidation and more of a reason to go up. And now retail is buying and usually that means things are getting top heavy. I think the weekly claims numbers is very important for your "stairs". I am not saying the markets are going to crash but I do believe there needs to be a few hundred points shaved off before going higher (not that the markets should go any higher since we are already trading at almost 60 times earnings on the S&P which is extremely extremely extremely expensive). Though I understand the markets are "pricing in" 2010 earnings. Which is why if things don't continue to improve and it turns out this is all gov. stimulus...well...look out below.

[edit on 31-7-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 02:07 AM
link   

Originally posted by marg6043
I don't know what is going on but GA has the record of most failed banks so far, I am from GA and is getting scary.

There is no mystery why the banks in GA are prone to fail the most. GA stands for GAngsters, like Dillinger or Bonnie and Clyde, (and Hex too, I suspect, like he's into the banks all the time.)

Nasdaq was a Mayan elder who was in charge of the calendar during the harvests. He got some curse going against the white man. When the eponymous index closes at 2012,



the Great Wall of China develops a hole in it, and the US Treasuries will be streaming out of the hole under pressure. Then the seasonal cyclone will blow them all the way to the Arlington Cemetery. Bernanke would think that the ancestry of Benjamin Franklin is flying kites like crazy, but then he comes into the realization what is in the air, and he will emigrate to Cuba and will ask Castro for political asylum. So Fidel puts him into the mental asylum. coz 1) Bernanke and Fidel are cousins, 2) Fidel is no longer into politics.

Yep, that's the Nasdaq's prophecy.



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 02:26 AM
link   
reply to post by stander
 


I wish I could smoke what ever it is you smoke ....

Seriously.

I really do.




posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 05:37 AM
link   
reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


The current long term upward trend for the Dow is again stair stepping up the high side of the trading range.

img196.imageshack.us...

If you were to simply extrapolate the pattern we could see Dow 10,000 before the end of October. Its hard to guess the size and timing of the pullbacks but we should see another temporary capstone before then.

Something is going to need to be done about reversing out stimulus or else the dollar is going to make new lows and oil is going to start driving inflation numbers over the top before October though. That is why I am having trouble seeing the Dow much above 10,000 in 2009.

This whole rally since March has been fueled by stimulus and the fall in the dollar. There have been no real fundamentals driving it. It would probably require some interest rate jumps to provoke a crash like Redhatty foresees but terrible third quarter numbers although less likely now could also cause a more serious correction.



[edit on 1-8-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 07:38 AM
link   

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate

This whole rally since March has been fueled by stimulus and the fall in the dollar. There have been no real fundamentals driving it. It would probably require some interest rate jumps to provoke a crash like Redhatty foresees but terrible third quarter numbers although less likely now could also cause a more serious correction.


Thanks, you got it right, is going to be another stimulus just to keep the illusion that the markets are doing great.

Thanks to all that money been funneled into the economy is a false sense of recovery.

Is all a lie and an illusion, and well predicted when the bailouts and infusions were been funneled into the economy, the false recovery was well predicted back then.
But take all that stimulus away and we will come crashing to the earth like jumbo without its flying ears.

Nothing has change actually we are not better now that we where back at the beginning of the year.



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 12:45 PM
link   

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


The current long term upward trend for the Dow is again stair stepping up the high side of the trading range.

img196.imageshack.us...

If you were to simply extrapolate the pattern we could see Dow 10,000 before the end of October. Its hard to guess the size and timing of the pullbacks but we should see another temporary capstone before then.

Something is going to need to be done about reversing out stimulus or else the dollar is going to make new lows and oil is going to start driving inflation numbers over the top before October though. That is why I am having trouble seeing the Dow much above 10,000 in 2009.

This whole rally since March has been fueled by stimulus and the fall in the dollar. There have been no real fundamentals driving it. It would probably require some interest rate jumps to provoke a crash like Redhatty foresees but terrible third quarter numbers although less likely now could also cause a more serious correction.



[edit on 1-8-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]


Unfortunately my friend that is not a logarithmic chart. If you are going to base a theory on a high percentage run, you have to use a % adjusted chart. (log chart)

The rally is based on the expectation of a turnaround which we are seeing right now. It is all unfolding.

Listen my friend, don't try to outthink the market, refer back to my last post about Resistance 1 and 2 and look at the formations we are making. We will run at LEAST to resistance 2 and by that time all 50 and 200 DAILY EMA's will be crossed and we will have the 200 EMA to fall back on.

This will be the guiding factor in determining the technical shape of the markets. No professionals with be shorting anything WITH THE 200 EMA DAILY UNDER THE 20 AND 50. I promise that much.

Just take it into consideration, I know you are a bear at heart, so you are viewing this through the wrong angle. I believe I am very correct and I have been staking these claims for quite a while now. Just food for thought at least before you going taking big positions down the line either way?

GL of course, I have been wrong before.



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 01:09 PM
link   

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate
 


Well I guess I really have to fall back on charts from 2003 and 1974 (I think it was, pretty sure) in this instance.

The 1974 would be the closest looking chart technically that I have seen compared to this big down move we had - in fact technically the one in 74 (one of those years) The move under the 200 EMA was even greater than it was this time around. So this really technically was not the worst crash or whatever you wanna call it etc..

2003 was where we did the stair-steps.. that is what is going on now.. these bear flags shoot lower and then we "stair-step" higher..

If you go back you have seen the bear flags I have highlighted and I think that trend continues, like I think we are in right now...

The longer term trend is up and if you have read all my posts the P&F charts are showing bullish moves up upwards 11,000 on dow and I think thats easily possible somewhere around end of year if we just keep this trend.

Like I have been saying, look to the NASDAQ as our leader.

Remember as well the 50 and 200 EMA's have NOT CROSSED yet in the DJIA AND SP 500. We will prob have price action go below then bounce back up just like we did when the nasdaq did the same thing.

You can watch these patterns occur over and over in history if you go back and look.










Take a look now at the 70's in the SP500?

See any similarities?

If you didn't see the price on the sides you most likely could have mistaken this for 2008-2009+

Could this be history repeating itself as it does over and over throughout market cycles?

Most likely, yes IMO at least.

Now lets take a look at NASDAQ 2002-2006

What do you see?

Well first the price rebounded of the 200 EMA a few times which it did not now (which signals investors are more bullish in this current rally)

It also very well outlines the "stairstepping" I was talking about and this trend can continue for a very long time. Dont mistake this for some BS dead cat bounce etc.. you have been hearing, thats just people talking with no technical knowledge of markets, and most likely just repeating what they hear bc they cannot come up with anything better themselves.

This of course again, all in my opinion, and I welcome others, I just think they are wrong.


****

After previewing I noticed that some of the charts got cut off so in my media profile you can see the full pix's

****



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 01:30 PM
link   
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


While I am a short term bear (as i stated around to a 940 correction in sp500 it seems) the longer term trend I belive is higher..

The dates just all depend on how the flags play out and how elongated each move will be..

I actually think I might start looking into the new option plays for index's I think you can play like 1 week moves etc. in the market now..

I think moves like that are much easier to call than intraday moves..at least in my opinion



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 01:33 PM
link   

Originally posted by GreenBicMan

The rally is based on the expectation of a turnaround which we are seeing right now. It is all unfolding.



Turnaround??

We are seeing no such turnaround and that is an undisputed FACT for anyone who cares to look at the real numbers. What you are basing your optimism on is an EXPECTATION that things will get better, not any tangible, real world facts...(charts and equations are fun and all, but they are no better at predicting the market than indiscriminately thrown darts....

The market is on a mini thrill ride just like it was during the housing bubble...they're simply trying to do the same thing that got us into this fiasco in the first place....The BIG difference this time is that we can't jump out of inevitability by using our home equity...Americans have no equity anymore, neither does the rest of the world....Our credit is tapped out and it's time to clear the balance sheets.

If you look at the numbers, they tell you that things are continuing to slow down....and yes, there may be a 3Q bump, but that too is based on a temporary illusion...This move will prove to be a bear market rally, and by next spring (after we hit new lows) you'll probably claim you predicted that too


[edit on 1-8-2009 by RolandBrichter]



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 01:37 PM
link   
reply to post by RolandBrichter
 


That is a theory.

I have read similar stories, which actually ALL GOES back to the theory that THERE ARE NO DEALS IN THE MARKET PLACE.

Although, it is funny, you would think I could throw darts then like a world champion with some of the calls I made..could I be that lucky? Maybe.. but if you knew me you would think otherwise..

You can't deny history is all I am saying and so far everything I have been saying for the past 4 months has become true.

While I guess I cannot change your mind, and I welcome other opinions, I guess we will just have to wait and see.



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 01:45 PM
link   

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


While I am a short term bear (as i stated around to a 940 correction in sp500 it seems) the longer term trend I belive is higher..

The dates just all depend on how the flags play out and how elongated each move will be..

I actually think I might start looking into the new option plays for index's I think you can play like 1 week moves etc. in the market now..

I think moves like that are much easier to call than intraday moves..at least in my opinion


I agree pretty much that the longer trend is higher...I mean, most people think around 1000-1100 is a top for the S&P, and there will probably be some shorting around there and a subsequent short squeeze.

I don't know, this market is being so irrational it is just absolutely nuts. I was just watching CNN and they said that the stimulus created like 40 jobs in this one region by cleaning up nets left over by fishers (these 40 guys were part of a group of over 200 who used to fish for sea urchins and exported it to Japan but that business collapsed). My question is...they are employed right now, but how many fish nets can they clean up? The stimulus is full of jobs like these. Something has to give...and the markets melting up because it expects a full recovery in a relatively short period time, especially after a crash of this magnitude is precipitous and shouldn't be trusted.

But yeah, a 5% retracement on the S&P would make sense and then some subsequent short squeezes occurring will pop indexes higher. But mark my words, there will be another crash in the markets. But it will be when nobody expects it and the financial crisis is spouted as being part of a dream.



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 01:57 PM
link   

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RolandBrichter
 


That is a theory.

I have read similar stories, which actually ALL GOES back to the theory that THERE ARE NO DEALS IN THE MARKET PLACE.

Although, it is funny, you would think I could throw darts then like a world champion with some of the calls I made..could I be that lucky? Maybe.. but if you knew me you would think otherwise..

You can't deny history is all I am saying and so far everything I have been saying for the past 4 months has become true.

While I guess I cannot change your mind, and I welcome other opinions, I guess we will just have to wait and see.


Granted...we'll just have to see. But , at least we can make an educated guess based on the real underlying factors that drive the market.....markets will fail without the engine that drives it (capital) and capital MUST be produced....Our production is down (in most cases) over 40%!! AND GETTING WORSE....What you're making predictions on entirely relies on the ability of our glorious government to print more money....and they can't do that for much longer....The system should have crashed entirely last fall.....by delaying the inevitable the next crash is likely to be our currency.....I can predict that with a four function calculator and 5th grade math techniques...

As far as denying history goes,....your histograms can't help you because we've NEVER been in this economic predicament ever before.....Basing the future off past market reactions these days is like trying to guess next weeks lotto numbers based on last weeks draw....there is no correlation..

Hey, I have nothing against you personally, and as I've said before, I do enjoy your posts...you have your opinion, and I have mine...It's just that mine is correct



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 02:03 PM
link   
reply to post by RolandBrichter
 


OK, we agree to disagree


Thats cool man - its just that if you think this is the worst trouble we have ever been in, the market says otherwise, and I guess that is the only thing I go by since it is really one of the only leading indicators we have (yes, I know many will argue this of course)

Honestly, I just like the conversation. While sometimes heated perhaps, I of course have nothing against anyone for their opinion on this matter. I think there are much more interesting things to talk about anyways, like how the dolphins will win the superbowl this year with chad p.



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 02:06 PM
link   
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


If you believe this, you should always take quick profits then (like I know you have been doing)

It is very tough anyways to buy and hold through bear flags, corrections etc. anyways of course..

Although I do think, if we indeed do "crash" again (I dont know what industry would take to the crisis this time) there will most likely be another generational buying opportunity. And for this reason, I do not think that will happen, when have you ever had a chance to buy GE at 6 dollars 2 times in a span of a year or so? Maybe in like 1930 or something.. so.. I guess either way I am bullish lol..

I do go both ways of course as everyone always knows, so if I feel we are setting up for a bearish big time reversal, you will hear that out of my mouth as well... just as of right now I dont believe it is in the cards.



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 02:18 PM
link   

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


If you believe this, you should always take quick profits then (like I know you have been doing)

It is very tough anyways to buy and hold through bear flags, corrections etc. anyways of course..

Although I do think, if we indeed do "crash" again (I dont know what industry would take to the crisis this time) there will most likely be another generational buying opportunity. And for this reason, I do not think that will happen, when have you ever had a chance to buy GE at 6 dollars 2 times in a span of a year or so? Maybe in like 1930 or something.. so.. I guess either way I am bullish lol..

I do go both ways of course as everyone always knows, so if I feel we are setting up for a bearish big time reversal, you will hear that out of my mouth as well... just as of right now I dont believe it is in the cards.


Well right now to reverse the upward trend all it will take is the government to say something...which I believe they will do in the future if the underlying fundamentals aren't improving and they need to go on another spending spree. Because even though the stock market is based on emotion, if the economy which the stock market is based on isn't doing well, people will panic sell since they are holding these "assets" at such high values. It would be much better for the government to say something about how the economy is still weak and may need further stimulus than for it to be a surprise to the markets.

But yeah...what industry will bring down the markets? I don't really know. Maybe none will. I mean all it takes is a little discouragement and fear of a double dip. It is all up to the government right now. Because the only difference between March 2009 and July 2009 is the pessimism/optimism of the gov.



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 02:19 PM
link   


.by delaying the inevitable the next crash is likely to be our currency


Seems more and more likely, but since investors are buying stocks as a safe haven against the collapsing dollar and the eventual resulting inflation GBM's 1974 graph is kind of appropriate. My more conservative bearish nature thinks Bernanke might head off the skyrocketing inflation with a preemptive strike. If that doesn't happen till inflation is running double digits 11,000 on the DOW is almost a given.



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 02:20 PM
link   
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


I think the .gov has been doing the underpromise overdeliver thing as well. If you have ever been in the corp. environment, everyone knows that is the game (know you have of course)

Im just saying, if you take out lagging indicators which everyone loves to use for some reason, it looks pretty legit.



posted on Aug, 1 2009 @ 02:22 PM
link   
reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate
 


I have heard my dad talking to clients about inflation.

He is saying interest rates will be kept very low for a long time to come.

He is very smart in these areas, and if I hear anything else out of his mouth concerning this I will of course say so.



new topics

top topics



 
189
<< 436  437  438    440  441  442 >>

log in

join