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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 03:51 AM
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Originally posted by Hx3_1963
*Icon*....

Who do you con? Like those figures you post are not real?


I think you work for the Chinese dollar trashers. I tell Bernanke and Obama about you and they will stop using your numbers to figure out how to rescue the economy -- first thing in the morning when the White House opens.




posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 04:59 AM
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I thought Goldman Sachs was flying the dollar not the Chinese? Then again it probably was the talk about tightening Chinese monetary policy in China that reversed the dollar trend Wednesday and gave us the Thursday rally.

/m9p2m5

The Tuesday Wednesday rally in the dollar dropped oil prices and froze the equity markets temporarily but the longer term pattern for the dollar continues down as it has since March when the Stock market rally began.

/locnra

The only thing that could stop the dollar from falling would be a clear indication from the US Fed that they are going to start reversing out stimulus. Until then stocks are considered safe haven against inflation. India and China have announced tightening policies but I'm beginning to think here in the US we won't do anything till inflation gets out of hand and oil goes over $80 a barrel again.

I'm pretty comfortable with GBM's technicals for now but when we finally do turn the corner in the equity markets the $VIX is going into the 30's again..



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 07:56 AM
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GDP report

Down -1.0% in the advance report based on QoQ

Since 1st Q was -6.4%, that means 2nd Q was down 1 more %

This number will continue to be revised all the way until 9/30/09 when the final is released.

the indexes are having a waterfall effect from the news - fast down on the futures

Of course some folks actually realize that another 1% down really means that so far '09 is down almost 7.5% from '08

So to keep tally, the last 4 q's have seen

q3 '08 -2.7% (final)
q4 '08 -5.4% (final)
q1 '09 -6.4% (final)
q2 '09 -1% (advance numbers)



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 08:04 AM
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Originally posted by redhatty
GDP report

Down -1.0% in the advance report based on QoQ

Since 1st Q was -6.4%, that means 2nd Q was down 1 more %

This number will continue to be revised all the way until 9/30/09 when the final is released.

the indexes are having a waterfall effect from the news - fast down on the futures

Of course some folks actually realize that another 1% down really means that so far '09 is down almost 7.5% from '08

So to keep tally, the last 4 q's have seen

q3 '08 -2.7% (final)
q4 '08 -5.4% (final)
q1 '09 -6.4% (final)
q2 '09 -1% (advance numbers)



I am surprised futures are down and commodities are down considering the estimate was like -1.5%. But hey, I guess when markets are rising like we are growing it goes down a little. I wouldn't be surprised if we are slightly up at the end of the day though



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 08:09 AM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


Well The US GDP wasn't the only bad news this am....

* Initial jobless claims in US increase; total rolls unexpectedly decline.
* US Treasuries fell, heading for a 4th monthly loss on speculation GDP improving.
* Japan's unemployment rate rises to a 6-yr high in June; Consumer prices fell at a record pace.
* Asian stocks rise on profit reports; MSCI Index set for fifth monthly gain.
* AK Steel announces price increase of $40/tonne for its carbon steel products.
* Abraxis posts Q1 EPS of $0.17/sh, beating estimates by 29 per cent.
* Air France Q1 net loss at €431M vs. cons est. of a loss of €194M.
* Anglo American profit falls 31% as metal, commodities, gem prices decline.
* Aon profit fell 11%.
* Arch Chemicals sees FY09 EPS of $1.60-$1.80 vs. prev guidance of $1.85-$2.05.
* Avon Products Q2 net drops 65% to $82.9M, revs beat est., comes in at $2.47B.
* British Airways posts wider-than-estimated loss after revenue declines 12%.
* Cigna Corp.'s Q2 earnings rises 60% aided by $110M in income from its annuity biz.
* Colgate's Q2 earnings rose 14% to $561.6M amid prior-year restructuring costs.
* DTE Energy's Q2 net triples to $83M on energy trading; revs fell 25% to $1.69B.
* Disney CEO: Co sees signs of economic stabilization.
* Dow Chemical swings to a loss of $344M on costs from purchasing Rohm & Haas.
* Embraer's Q2 profit falls 50% to $67.8M on currency losses, more tax expenses.
* Enel profit increases 29% amid lower sales; $14B bond sale planned.
* Exxon Mobil posts its lowest qtrly profit since 2003, net down 66%.
* Ford slows bidding process for its Volvo unit, tries to get a better price.
* HSBC may post 1H loss as US unit pushes bad loans to $15B.
* Kellogg Co.'s Q2 net rises 13% to $354M amid cost cutting steps. Revs dip 3% to $3.2B.
* MetLife swung to a Q2 loss as it recorded another $3.83B of investment losses.
* Nintendo, Sony face pressure to cut prices as Wii, PlayStation sales slump.
* Telefónica Q2 net falls 6.1% to €1.93B ($2.71B) on lower revenue.
* Total's net profit drops 54% in 2Q.
* Travelers Cos.' Q2 net falls 21% on lower revenue and higher claims costs.
* Vedanta profit drops 52%, beats analyst estimates on cost cuts, suspension.
* Wynn Resorts beats by $0.10, posts Q2 EPS of $0.09; revs down 12.3% at $723.3M.
* Weyerhaeuser reorts a 59 cents lossper share.
(hattip to Tyler Durden)

Check out Ticker Guy's commentary on GDP

[edit on 7/31/09 by redhatty]



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 08:20 AM
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reply to post by redhatty
 


None of that stuff is something that has stopped the market in the past so I doubt it would now.



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 08:44 AM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


Seems you're right. The rebound has begun in force, all indexes are in the green now.

All it proves to me is that there are no fundamentals moving this market anymore. It's all flash trading & HFT - in other words, computers that don't even have humans sitting at them



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 09:16 AM
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Still in the wave


chart



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 09:17 AM
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reply to post by redhatty
 


I also find interesting how this so call rebound come to be, taken into consideration that various things are to happen in august and in September that may cause the markets once again to wobble.

First the IMF to be meeting to see if they will push their SDR.

China increasing trade using the yuan and steeping back from the dollar.

Then the 10 trillion still circulation of bad credit that will be in the table when the G20 meets in Pittsburgh in Sept.

I guess the US markets needs to look good in the face of all adversity.



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 09:22 AM
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reply to post by marg6043
 


I don't think there is enough lipstick to put on this pig we call an economy to make it look good, ya know?

In the GDP report, the only substantial increases were in Government & state Gov spending.

But as we have seen, the states are out of money, so we cannot count on that to continue into Q3.

I'm still full up on the bet that we will crash again before the year is out. I would love to be wrong, but I don't see anyway for that to happen so far.



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 09:24 AM
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Recession Worse Than Prior Estimates, Revisions Show


www.abovetopsecret.com...




posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 09:24 AM
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Originally posted by redhatty
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


Seems you're right. The rebound has begun in force, all indexes are in the green now.

All it proves to me is that there are no fundamentals moving this market anymore. It's all flash trading & HFT - in other words, computers that don't even have humans sitting at them


Its about time to start selling stocks short. Now everyone thinks the S&P will probably go up in August as well...not exactly yet but soon. I don't care what technicals say, the sentiment and chasing of the rally is enough to know that the longs are living on borrowed time.



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 09:28 AM
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reply to post by redhatty
 


You are no wrong, unless is some scam been played on the markets to boost the numbers all roads lead to something bad about to happen.

The predictions of a fall crash is real.

I wonder if the fed is feeding the markets like they did before the bailouts at the expenses of the people.

I still feel that is something going on with the markets under the table and away from prying eyes.

Is no way that the US can go into sept G20 meeting with the markets still in the red after all the bailouts and economic stimulus.



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 09:29 AM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


From Rosenberg: "It is amazing that anyone would go long an equity market with a reported P/E multiple of 700x "

2nd line



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 09:30 AM
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The problem with these GDP numbers is that analysts are saying without gov. stimulus it would have been more like -3%. Well it came in at -1% BUT consumer spending contracted again which demonstrates that all this stimulus is what is driving the markets. One thing the gov. has problems doing is forcing consumers to spend a lot more. If they aren't spending, that means that the 'private' economy is still in very poor shape while the now much larger public economy due to the gov. is getting better. But what happens when the stimuli around the world is taken out of the markets? That is something investors, business owners and corporations have to contend with...Which is why the consumer spending portion of GDP is much more important than the overall convoltued GDP number.



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 09:31 AM
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reply to post by warrenb
 


I am sorry for no giving credit to you post, I will fix that now,

$10 trillion credit crunch cost

www.abovetopsecret.com...



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 09:33 AM
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House is close to passing Wall Street limits on compensation for brokers and traders:

www.cnbc.com...


I guess the best and the brightest kids will want to go back to law and medical school and ditch business school



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 09:38 AM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


Didn't they already pass something like that for CEO's compensation & that really hasn't changed anything.

Why should we believe something will change this time?

Well, SOMETHING will change.... Like the government control of all things they can get their hands on, regardless of "free market" principles the country was founded on



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 12:52 PM
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Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
House is close to passing Wall Street limits on compensation for brokers and traders:

www.cnbc.com...


I guess the best and the brightest kids will want to go back to law and medical school and ditch business school


Or learn Mandarin.



posted on Jul, 31 2009 @ 12:55 PM
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Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
The problem with these GDP numbers is that analysts are saying without gov. stimulus it would have been more like -3%. Well it came in at -1% BUT consumer spending contracted again which demonstrates that all this stimulus is what is driving the markets. One thing the gov. has problems doing is forcing consumers to spend a lot more. If they aren't spending, that means that the 'private' economy is still in very poor shape while the now much larger public economy due to the gov. is getting better. But what happens when the stimuli around the world is taken out of the markets? That is something investors, business owners and corporations have to contend with...Which is why the consumer spending portion of GDP is much more important than the overall convoltued GDP number.


This is because the Consumer is still facing severe deflation .. while the broader economy will face inflation as they are inundated with cash.

Obama's projects will boost construction and car sales and various pet projects for a short duration of time, giving the GDP an artificial boost.. but because the CONSUMER has had no benefit what so ever, come Christmas Time, the GDP will be in for a horrific surprise when no one has the money to splurge on sales.. especially considering how many are rolling off benefits.



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