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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on Jul, 29 2009 @ 01:59 PM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


Yep you notice it tested the low again - and rebounded (slightly)

A bull market by definition isn't based on anything but technicals my friend. And only technicals.




posted on Jul, 29 2009 @ 02:59 PM
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I had to use DJI to point out the vertices; there is no action over at SP -- flatlands.



As I suspected, the testing cannot be done today, coz both min points are shallow and materialized after 1 pm. The 11 am/1 pm line is horizontal indicating no action. So it looks that the min point before 1 pm would be about the the same as the closing point.

Trading every single day is nuts. One should wait for better days.



posted on Jul, 29 2009 @ 04:25 PM
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reply to post by stander
 


Today was choppy as hell - no pattern emerged except for the end when we broke that down slope highlighted in blue here



posted on Jul, 29 2009 @ 05:09 PM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


I figured I better explain myself one more time.

Im bring back the old resistance #1 and resistance #2 again

I have quite a lengthy explanation as to why I am thinking this on the chart.

As to where it is headed after that, well you just play what comes at you based on technicals after that.



Here you go



posted on Jul, 29 2009 @ 05:18 PM
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Back when we were experiencing resistance at Dow 8800 it took over a week before the market sold off back to the bottom of the trading range. The higher bond yields and oil sell off today are not bullish indicators for the equity markets but my predictions always seem to run early. The rally from Dow 8100 did not catch me by surprise as I was actually long oil for a while but the rally did overshoot my targets for both oil and equities. Its a crap shoot but if we get some more bad news we could see a pretty sizable pullback.

Edit: Could be a B point in that chart there GBM. I'm hearing Michael Jackson lyrics. "easy as 123.."

[edit on 29-7-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]



posted on Jul, 29 2009 @ 05:42 PM
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Just in case someone wasn't paying attention...

We had a bond auction today

$39 Billion in 5-Year notes

The Bid to Cover was 1.92

With an 11bp tail pre to post auction

This is our first "unofficial" Bond Auction FAIL

- indirect bidders take 36.7% of competitive bids
- notes draw 2.689% with 31.16%
- PD take 61.59%

For perspective on the btc... 2.58 was the btc on the prior 5 yr auction and 2.20 is the average over the last 10 auctions.

This is not a good thing folks.



posted on Jul, 29 2009 @ 05:59 PM
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reply to post by redhatty
 

Could you explain more?

Do you mean that all bonds were NOT bought by foreigners/citizens and that the FED has to print a bunch of them? How many billions do they have to sell, how much more do they have to sell this week, how much before october 1, and if everytime the amount that the FED must buy by itself, how much time before people don't buy the bonds anymore?



posted on Jul, 29 2009 @ 06:25 PM
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Sure


PD = Primary Dealers, usually Big Bank type companies that have a "contract" with the Fed.

In the event that indirect bidders (usually, but not always foreign nations Central Banks) do NOT buy the T's offered at auction, the PD are REQUIRED to buy them all.

PDs can bid the yield up if they feel there is not sufficient demand in the market to easily sell off what they're obligated to buy.

If they have bids from customers exactly equal to their obligation to buy, then we get a 2.0 Bid to Cover.

Below 2.0 means that the PD's end up with treasuries in inventory that aren't immediately sold on to customers.

The PDs are now drowning in Treasury debt.

This in turns causes the FED to monetize the debt. The circle-jerk goes like this:

FED loans PDs money to buy T's

PD buy T's

PD can't sell off all the T's it bought

FED loans more money to PDs to buy T's OR buys back the T's from the PDs

FED buys back it's (our) own debt = monetization of said debt

But capital is still being destroyed at a rate that outstrips the monetization.

We are quickly devolving into a state of Ouroboros - the snake that eats it's own tail...

Have a chat with the snake on how that turned out


ETA:

Auctions for the remainder of the week:

7 year Notes, $28 billion (July 30th)

Also a 13 and a 26 week bill offering on Aug 3. The next schedule won't be out till Aug 5



[edit on 7/29/09 by redhatty]



posted on Jul, 29 2009 @ 07:03 PM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 

Actually the concept worked with staggering accuracy. Since I've set the rules beforehand, I can't change them to make convenient adjustments.

There were those two bottom points, quite shallow, but there were, and the connecting line had a very slight positive (up) slope. So the first condition was met. Drawing the line to the end returned a projected close 9026.43. The guideline said that this projected number is to be adjusted according to the slope of the 11 am/1 pm line. As you see it from the chart, this slope was slightly negative, and that according to the rule means that the value of the Projected Close number is increased by 0.5% of the Previous Close, which was 9096.72.



After the little math is done, the Adjusted Projected Close is 9072 points and the Actual Close is 9073 points -- a mere point of a difference! But you need to test the simple method rigorously to call it a miracle. Then you can think about the practical aspects -- like making sure that your buy/ sell orders get done ASAP. Gonna cost you, though.


I try to be hard on it tomorrow if the condition allows the testing.



posted on Jul, 29 2009 @ 10:27 PM
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Here we go again... :shk: ...it's down...no...it's up...

finance.yahoo.com...

Shanghai Composite 3,250.11 11:12PM ET Down 16.32 (0.50%)
Shanghai Composite 3,243.81 11:13PM ET Down 22.62 (0.69%)
Shanghai Composite 3,239.25 11:14PM ET Down 27.18 (0.83%)
Shanghai Composite 3,231.18 11:15PM ET Down 35.25 (1.08%)
Shanghai Composite 3,224.52 11:16PM ET Down 41.91 (1.28%)
Shanghai Composite 3,222.65 11:17PM ET Down 43.78 (1.34%)
Shanghai Composite 3,251.16 11:22PM ET Down 15.27 (0.47%)
Shanghai Composite 3,239.36 11:26PM ET Down 27.07 (0.83%)
Shanghai Composite 3,232.21 11:28PM ET Down 34.22 (1.05%)



Taiwan Weighted 7,024.99 11:08PM ET Down 58.64 (0.83%)
Taiwan Weighted 7,023.28 11:12PM ET Down 60.35 (0.85%)
Taiwan Weighted 7,003.58 11:17PM ET Down 80.05 (1.13%)
Taiwan Weighted 7,001.08 11:21PM ET Down 82.55 (1.17%)

Oil dips towards $63 on U.S. crude build, China fears
finance.yahoo.com...

[edit on 7/29/2009 by Hx3_1963]



posted on Jul, 29 2009 @ 10:50 PM
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reply to post by Vitchilo
 


also, be sure to read the TickerGuy's take on it

Click here to read it



posted on Jul, 29 2009 @ 11:20 PM
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Originally posted by Hx3_1963
Here we go again... :shk: ...it's down...no...it's up...

finance.yahoo.com...


Here we go again...
...it's up...yes...it's up!!!

finenancy.yahoo.cum...



posted on Jul, 29 2009 @ 11:48 PM
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Just checking in, here...been gone for a month or two...what have I missed.


Has CRE done anything of note? Option ARMs? I see that the equity markets are looking okay. Any new threats on the horizon?

I really am SOOO out of the loop.



posted on Jul, 29 2009 @ 11:51 PM
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Well I thought the input was lower low at 11 and higher low at 1?

Maybe I was wrong - but it looks like you are "searching" a bit..

Like I said maybe I misunderstood

_____________________________________________________





Have you looked at PIVOT POINTS yet?

IMO they are pretty reliable and are really good for discretionary trading especially when you can line up a good moving average.



Here is how it works



____________________________________________________________




The PIVOT POINT is the area of most resistance and support.

Now when we break the pivot point up or down we usually head towards either R1 (which would be on top) or S1 (Which would be underneath)

Now both R1 and S1 are harder to take over even than the PP because if it breaks, it usually retests the line then heads towards R2 or S2 and that is a really good battleground.

If it breaks the "2's" there is a SUPER good chance it heads in the 2-3 zone and stays there the entire day.

Also there are many more nuances with PIVOT POINTS but you will have to watch it day by and see how the interact..

Like I said IMO these are great formulas and a lot of what you are seeing is attributed to these (a lot of day traders and floor brokers use these)

You will see a lot of "bounces" on these lines and once you input all the information in and have the 7 lines on your chart all day long you will be amazed on the "depth" of information this brings.




__________________________




FORUMLAS:





R1 = Resistance 1

R2 = Resistance 2

R3 = Resistance 3

THEN

S1 = Support 1

S2 = Support 2

S3 = Support 3


PIVOT POINT FORMULA :


PP = (H + L + C) / 3


Where

H = High

L= Low

C = Close


** OF YESTERDAY (THE DAY BEFORE) **



* R1 = (2*PP) - L

* R2 = PP + (H - L)

* R3 = H + 2*(PP-L)

* S1 = (2*PP) - H

* S2 = PP - (H - L)

* S3 = L - 2*(H - PP)



______________________________________________________


There are many other formulas that calculate these, but I believe in KISS and these IMO by FAR work the best for discretionary trading.

Have fun



posted on Jul, 29 2009 @ 11:52 PM
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reply to post by theWCH
 


damn what have you been up to?

whats that program doing? are you working for the lakers yet?



posted on Jul, 30 2009 @ 12:05 AM
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We actually broke a 3 day downtrend at the end of the day yesterday

And also have support at that level we bounced off of intraday...

Line 1 if broken could drop us a bit..

You will see a lot of action when it hit intraday



HERE



posted on Jul, 30 2009 @ 12:13 AM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


I figured I better explain myself one more time.

Im bring back the old resistance #1 and resistance #2 again

I have quite a lengthy explanation as to why I am thinking this on the chart.

As to where it is headed after that, well you just play what comes at you based on technicals after that.



Here you go



Im sorry I misstated something in that chart.

The 50 and 200 EMA HAVE NOT crossed in the sp500 - that has occurred in the Nasdaq and that is my mistake I'm not sure what I was thinking there - everything else is correct, but it is still slightly diff. than the sp500 of course



posted on Jul, 30 2009 @ 09:29 AM
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Dang Stander that stuff really works!!!


Dow Jones Industrial Average 9,220.21 10:28am ET Up 149.49 (1.65%)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH 994.01 10:28am ET Up 18.86 (1.93%)

New Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected to 584,000
www.foxnews.com...

Unemployment spreads distress in U.S. home loans
www.reuters.com...

ExxonMobil reports its second quarter earnings were $4.1 billion, a plunge of 66% compared to a year earlier.

Lee Enterprises, a U.S. media company, says its operating revenue declined 20.5 percent in the 3rd fiscal quarter.

Motorola Climbs After Loss Is Narrower Than Analysts Predicted
www.bloomberg.com...

AstraZeneca, Exxon, Kellogg, MasterCard: U.S. Equity Preview
www.bloomberg.com...

[edit on 7/30/2009 by Hx3_1963]



posted on Jul, 30 2009 @ 09:45 AM
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Natural Gas median estimates was a +74bcf change from last week. The number came in at +71bcf. Natural gas is a little up maybe 1% after the report was released. I would have bought it if was in the high 60's, low 70's is, eh, very high. NG is probably up a little just because investors are glad it didn't come in the +80's since NG has been so crappy as of late.



posted on Jul, 30 2009 @ 10:04 AM
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We are in a stairstepping phase in the markets

The past few days of "doji's" - (hammers) were bull flags and I expect that to continue.

This is getting too easy.

Purely a traders market now.

[edit on 30-7-2009 by GreenBicMan]



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