The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

It will be interesting to see how "Manifest Destiny" is done Chinese style. The country is primarily a non dualistic Buddhist culture and often they don't have much use for foreign aristocracy.

Ouch I am at work right now but had to post that I got burned by those damn options in Apple. Lesson learned. Volatility coming out of option premiums is a bi*ch. -35% This is on hobby money though, not on life savings of course!

reply to post by Rockpuck


The problem is that the Americas left over businesses in direct need of help will take the money and run regardless of who is doing the offerings.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's total loan applications index rose by a seasonally adjusted 2.8 percent to 528.9 last week, even as 30-year mortgage rates rose by about 1/4 percentage point to 5.31 percent.

The measure of requests to buy homes and refinance loans was up from a seven-month low of 444.8 three weeks earlier but still less than half the level seen during the spring, when mortgage rates sank to record lows.

Now here comes the real issue with Americans losing their jobs in record numbers both Lenders and borrowers are not following through with these new mortgage requests. But since the "loan applications index" was the de facto indicator of home sales it makes it appear things are turning around but there not...

Wells Fargo & Co., the biggest U.S. home lender, said bad loans jumped in the second quarter as the recession made it harder for borrowers to keep up with payments.

The cost of loans written off as uncollectible jumped 35 percent from the first quarter to $4.39 billion, including $984 million of Wachovia assets, more than double the previous period. The charge-offs widened to 2.11 percent of loans from 1.54 percent in the first quarter, exceeding the 1.85 percent

This is very serious news and a prime indicator of a collapsing financial system

[edit on 22-7-2009 by DaddyBare]

reply to post by DaddyBare


Was really interested in the post and was wondering if you could finish the post as it seems to suddenly cut off. thanks!

**EDIT

nevermind found a link
www.foxbusiness.com...





[edit on 22-7-2009 by warrenb]

reply to post by warrenb


This was pieced together from several news sources so its a bit convoluted however I'll give you a few links to do your own research
Bloomberg
Morages apps rase among job loss fears
Summers Urges Banks to Lend More, Says Growth Pace ‘in Doubt’ Obama has declined to comment on whether he will reappoint Bernanke

The new "crisis" in the markets is going to come from doubts that the economy can remain on non crashing levels without the government constantly attempting to stimulate it.

Bernanke talked about the central bank having toolkits to unwind monetary stimulus. The tools obviously work better when investors don't know how and when they will be used. The treasury auction next week is estimated to be a record $ 113 billion in bonds. Yields were up some today as they should be with all the debt that is going to need to be purchased. Selling bonds that just barely beat inflation could be tough when stocks are jumping 14% in value in just 1 week.

[edit on 22-7-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
Bernanke talked about the central bank having toolkits to unwind monetary stimulus. The tools obviously work better when investors don't know how and when they will be used. The treasury auction next week is estimated to be a record $ 113 billion in bonds. Yields were up some today as they should be with all the debt that is going to need to be purchased. Selling bonds that just barely beat inflation could be tough when stocks are jumping 14% in value in just 1 week.

[edit on 22-7-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

Probably means stocks will go down due to "earnings fears, rate fears" or at least that will be the head line. We all know what that really means Time to buy the dollar for next week..........

[edit on 22-7-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


I read GBM's post about this not being a double top a couple times. He knows his stuff technically. *technically* the peaks of a double top need to be spaced at least a month apart and the second top simply remains a resistance level till we break below the low between the peaks by over 3%. Interesting.

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

I read GBM's post about this not being a double top a couple times. He knows his stuff technically. *technically* the peaks of a double top need to be spaced at least a month apart and the second top simply remains a resistance level till we break below the low between the peaks by over 3%. Interesting.

I am sure we will go higher from here, but that doesn't mean there won't be some more volatility rather than just up and up. Look at the VIX, it is at around 23 which is crazy. The VIX was at around 14-15 when the DOW was at 14000, and these are different times (obviously when unemployment is at 10% and there are many other land mines). So I am sure GBM will be right.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Well you know what they say, they taller they are the harder they fall.

I don't know if we will crash or not, but at this point all this manipulating going on and if there is any truth to the market going down when trying to pump treasuries, assuming they don't give our whole monetary policy away to the Fed, one of them are going to fall.

I read in a post just a few back about how treasury yield was up and the market closed down today. Coincidence? I think not.

I wonder if the market is going to decline next week when the bonds go up for auction?

Originally posted by Hastobemoretolife

I wonder if the market is going to decline next week when the bonds go up for auction?

That is my theory. This is the thing, the government can and will sell their debt easily. All they need to do is scare the markets. I don't know if they want to do that since the markets are still fragile. But bullishness is really beginning to come back into the markets, and that isn't a time to begin buying hands over fist...it was time to buy when DOW was at 6500, at 9000? I am not so sure. Buy when bearishness is at an all time high and stocks are crashing with talks of yet another 50% decrease (then it will rally). Same with bullishness, begin shorting or get out when stocks are rallying and everyone is saying things can still go up a lot from here. Especially in THIS environment...Not saying to short now though, as I don't think that is a prudent strategy at the moment unless you buy some insurance...

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


I think what is going to happen is it will go up to maybe 10,000 or 10,500 and then it will crash again. Then rinse and repeat just when it crashes it will drop to maybe 6000 or 5500 then depending on the environment and what kind of regulatory reforms they push through we should see a steady but slow rise up then no crash. That is my theory at least.

I wouldn't buy or short right now just for the fact that as you said it is near the top.

Originally posted by Hastobemoretolife
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

I think what is going to happen is it will go up to maybe 10,000 or 10,500 and then it will crash again. Then rinse and repeat just when it crashes it will drop to maybe 6000 or 5500 then depending on the environment and what kind of regulatory reforms they push through we should see a steady but slow rise up then no crash. That is my theory at least.

I wouldn't buy or short right now just for the fact that as you said it is near the top.

At the moment I would still probably buy before short. Especially since the financials are still above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages...If those begin to dip below that then we may see a little more downside. God I am sounding like GBM! But technical analysis is needed sometimes when fundamentals mean nothing...

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


I see.....

I'm saving my money to see what will happen with this Cap and Trade and Health Care bill.

Or, if it looks like the Fed is going to have to cut bait and run into treasuries to sell the debt to keep them from monetizing it then I will short.

Me I won't buy right now for the simple fact, as you have mentioned it is getting bearish and not the time to buy, unless you like playing poker.

I'm just laying back and watching what happens at the moment. I'll hop in and ride the wave down. Then I'll take my profits, if I make any, and will split it between "green" jobs and the FOREX.

The green jobs is up in the air until the final word comes on the Cap and Trade.

There are still a few weeks of irrational exuberance to come in the DJIA.
Then there will be lots of anti-Obama talk as the market falls after the Lughnasadh Cross Quarter, start of harvest time.

I think the double top is going to be in the Euro.

(here is the edit......)
Precise scientific Lughnasadh is August 7th this year. Traditionally it is August 1.

[edit on 23-7-2009 by THX-1138]

reply to post by THX-1138


boy those girls look awefully thirsty i think that might send them to the loo a few times i hope that wont make them think about breeding tonight because if they do they need to know that obama will tax their health care plan and it will empty their bank account in the long run

Corporate and individual tax revenues tend to be low in the third quarter especially this year with unemployment running so high. The Fed is expected to auction off up to $2 trillion in debt through September to help cover the deficit.

Since that is triple last years debt sales it may change the supply demand picture for bond sales. The Japanese have stated that they would be willing to buy US bonds if the yields become more attractive which seems the logical outcome. The stock markets are over bought again, so if they continue to move up until the Fed formally starts raising interest rates through announced overnight lending rate increases we could see a crash. Given the recession outlook, with the probability of higher interest rates looming, a fairly flat trading range for the stock markets would be my estimate through the fall.

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
Corporate and individual tax revenues tend to be low in the third quarter especially this year with unemployment running so high. The Fed is expected to auction off up to $2 trillion in debt through September to help cover the deficit.

Since that is triple last years debt sales it may change the supply demand picture for bond sales. The Japanese have stated that they would be willing to buy US bonds if the yields become more attractive which seems the logical outcome. The stock markets are over bought again, so if they continue to move up until the Fed formally starts raising interest rates through announced overnight lending rate increases we could see a crash. Given the recession outlook, with the probability of higher interest rates looming, a fairly flat trading range for the stock markets would be my estimate through the fall.

Yeah Volatility is really going to come out of the markets once the earnings are almost done by large companies...time to not buy options and write them. It will begin trading in a range as I can't fathom stocks making gains like these consistently.