The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by jefwane


It does seem to be the big argument.. and I vehemently disagree with Stander regarding Retail Pricing falling at historic levels last year. (Hell Japan refused to manufacturing enough PS3's and Xbox's due to the Dollar dysfunction.. and Toyota and Honda had record losses from Dollar Exchange). We could also look at major corporations like Target, Walmart and Star Bucks making record number of units sold but shrinking profits (granted Walmart sold so much so fast it really doesn't matter..)

Anyways..

The reason you are not yet paying AS MUCH this year as you were last year is simply the Dollar is not as low. World Currencies in relation to the Dollar have fallen considerably, especially in Europe as the Euro has suffered worse than the Dollar. However all indication points to the fact that the Administration could give a rats ass about the Dollar, which as been in continuous decline since the Crash. Basically once the crash happened, on the Forex Market, the Dollar actually rallied as Europe fell further and faster than the US.

Those more inclined in economic theories here on ATS (and honestly even on msm etc) are torn on the issue of inflation or deflation, and I believe quite simply its because there is no definite description of inflation or deflation.

IMO, inflation is the increase in money of the general CONSUMER ... if the consumer's income is not increasing then there cannot be inflation. The inflation of CPI and commodities like foods and fuel while income stagnates is, imo, deflation as it usually indicates a depreciation of the currency relative to purchasing power. If income stagnates and purchasing power decreases, that, imo, is deflation. Thus we have been in a deflating cycle since 2001..

Growth of Personal Income includes ALL income brackets, so as executives reap massive bonuses, while millions are laid off, personal income expands.. even though in reality it contracts.. more skewed numbers by the Fed. If the value of the Currency deflates as it is, all the while the number of Dollars floods the general economy and is in the hands of the Consumer, then we have inflation .. the number of Dollars increases, thus prices increase. This, imo, is the only true form of inflation. To summarize:

Inflation of CPI + Fuel + Foods while stagnation/deflation of the # of Dollars in the hands of the Consumer = deflation (and ultimately it does lead to price declines relative to purchasing power.. just wait till the shopping season)

Inflation of the CPI + Fuel + Foods + the number of Dollars in the hands of the Consumer = Inflation .. expand to fast and it can lead to High Inflation or Hyper Inflation.

How to tell the difference? During "Normal" Inflation, where CPI and Personal Income expand at roughly the same rate (Usually Personal Income expands faster) .. it is a sign of a "healthy" economy, and the people "feel" prosperous.. In times where CPI expands faster than Personal Income people feel "Underwater", as income eventually gets stretched and thus leads to defaults (see 2007).

Just my personal opinion of course, some will agree, some will not.

[edit on 7/19/2009 by Rockpuck]

reply to post by Hastobemoretolife

When I lived in Ohio I was looking at a Condo, which many of the current residents were trying to sell their condo while two more buildings were being built (poor bastards). From what the woman told me, the last two buildings wouldn't be built till they sold 100% of the first building .. my understanding was that the company that technically owned the land (and managed the HOA) broke the land into parcels for the "town homes" ... when someone bought a town house, they bought the land from the developer in the price of the house, and the construction company built it. For the "towers" the actual developer built the buildings shell from the construction company, then sold each unit and had a contractor design each unit separately according to the homeowner.

For most of the major housing developments, like Golden Key or Ryan Homes, etc, they buy the land then build to suit as both developer/construction.

Just what I understood from house shopping.

Originally posted by Hastobemoretolife
reply to post by DaddyBare

 

True true.

I have a question you are very knowledgeable about the real estate market. I notice that there are still new houses being built in housing developments. Is there a clause in the contracts between the developer and construction companies that say the construction company must build "x" amount of houses or it's a breach of contract?

Also what is the Horny Toad telling you this week in the market is looking like.

That was good!

No not at all see the developer is the prime contractor and he sub's out construction of homes to other general contractors...Usually not until an order is placed or he thinks the market might allowed him to move a few units... you business lic and loans may require you to produce X units...say you won the powerball bought a few hundred acres out somewhere and decided to build a house for everyone in your family... in essence that would make you the developer but to do the work you'd have to put the job up for bid, see?

PS the ole Horny Toad is saying this could be a make or break week depending how the rest of the earnings reports go



[edit on 19-7-2009 by DaddyBare]

reply to post by DaddyBare


S&P always fares the worst in the Second Quarter, most retailers are still operating in the Red, but that's not unusual .. most don't go into the Black until Christmas. Hence stocks traditionally doing better in Q-1-2 of the year, as Q3-4 decide the fiscal year revenue for most major corporations. I believe this WINTER will be the Make it Or Break It for the entire economy as a whole. Unemployment will ease into November as employers hire seasonal help for the holidays, and the broader economy would hire more as they prepare for an increase in productivity. If the Christmas Season fails us, next Feb will see a the US Economy in shambles.. with further astronomical job losses..

In all honesty... I am very, very surprised that the Administration has not pushed for a DIRECT infusion of cash into the consumers hands before the Christmas season.

To put an extra $1000 into families hands before November would have at the very least, offered us the illusion this crisis will turn around.

Instead the only thing we have to look forward to is 600,000 citizens rolling off Unemployment Benefits each month until Christmas.

Alas... Socialism fails us again!

This isn't really news to us on ATS but..

Many of the banks that got federal aid to support increased lending have instead used some of the money to make investments, repay debts or buy other banks, according to a new report from the special inspector general overseeing the government's financial rescue program.

/oxyctn

So inspector general Neil Barofsky thinks the TARP recipients need to report where the bail out money went to give the TARP program a degree of transparency.

In a written response, the Treasury again rejected that call. Officials have taken the view that the exact use of the federal aid cannot be tracked because money given to a bank is like water poured into an ocean.

True, but it would be easy to audit the banks activity after the Tarp funds were received to see where increased spending occurred. We learned JP Morgan leased a super tanker to store heating oil, thus keeping oil off the market to drive the price up and make a profit. That was not the intended use of the TARP funds the taxpayers had in mind. Cash flow is pretty easy to track these days so I'm beginning to wonder if the treasury is hiding something? Why are the feds so afraid of letting an independent do a simple audit of the principals involved in the TARP bailout?

[edit on 19-7-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate


I could understand if they couldn't keep track of a few million..

But a few billion? .. That's not pouring water into an ocean, that's pouring an ocean into a lake! Most of these banks were so insolvent they had absolutely no funds to operate, thus the need for the bail out. If they TRULY needed the bailout, then the bailout funds would have been the vast majority of funds available....

If it's the only funds you had.. how hard can it be to keep track of? The treasuries logic makes absolutely no sense.

reply to post by Rockpuck


Thanks, no doubt that does suck for the people trying to sell while they are building new condos/town homes.

All just a sells pitch. Yea, they won't build till its 100% filled, uhh guys the market collapsed time to dump this stuff as fast as we can.

Even though they are losing money they won't lose more money. :shk:


reply to post by DaddyBare


I got it now. I just wasn't sure how it worked because they just threw up a house near me while not all of the homes in the area are sold and are actually be reduced in price. So I wasn't sure how that worked.

Thanks for the explanation guys.

Also:

I don't think the earnings reports will rock the boat to bad, I except to hear more of our favorite term, "better than expected".

Originally posted by Rockpuck

Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by audas

 

You are absolutely right, we are now heading to inflation, state and federal hike in taxes and not enough taxable income to support the federal government's debt.

And as for unemployment let not forget the millions taking pay cuts.

Inflation is in our way no matter how the government is trying to make it look unimportant.

The markets, the economy has been flooded with worthless money.

Actually I think it's the other way around.. the Tax Hikes are only covering spending already scheduled as the States and Fed is broke.. taking billions more OUT of the economy..

If anything, this will reduce purchasing power (especially Obama's plans..) rather significantly.. I calculated our own income vs. proposed Health Care taxes and it was nearly an additional 4k a year in taxes (AGI) .. that's 4k I won't have to go out to movies, buy a car, money towards a house or whatever (or !@$ even to eat)

The Tax policies are enforcing the current Deflationary Spiral we have been in since last October.

Your theory would stand if it were a closed US market - however it is not - you are relying on classical theory - which is profoundly flawed.

You only need look at Zimbabwe to see an economy where real wages were falling off a cliff yet hyper inflation was dominant - why ? Because of huge influxes of cash - quantative easing. Inflation can either be an increase in competition for limited resources - or - the devaluation of the purchasing power of the currency - printing money.

So in theory yes, the reduction in purchasing capacity through reduced income and higher unemployment would lead to deflation - however due to the massive devaluation of the currency this outstrips your devaluation - America is not the only country on earth friend - there fore the competition for the products will be maintained - the importation of goods will continue - therefore you will be competing for the purchase of these goods with other consumers - say China - yet with dollars that are worthless.......

The pursuit of deflationary theories based on a collapsing domestic economy in a global financial crisis is undermined by the predicated nomenclature of the aforementioned crisis - it is not a domestic financial crisis - it is a global financial crisis - hence the cost of all goods will rise based on global demand - while the ability to pay for those goods with domestic currency will collapse =

this is the worst nightmare for America - and this is what is happening now.

My original point however is that the rises in the stock market are based on inflation from the US TARP -etc - please see the link in my post two pages back - this has absolutely nothing to do with domestic consumption but rather is a HUGE influx of capital into the financial markets chasing very limited stocks as almost no other market is viable (the only other traditional market is real estate - and that is dead as a dodo)....

Look forward to your angle.

We are seeing real interest rates start to rise again in the way of bond yields and this provides a natural check against inflation. Interest rates have bottomed so they can't go any lower without giving money away. Excluding new vehicle price hikes the inflation rate was pretty tame last month and once the Fed comes out and officially starts raising prime overnight rates any concern about inflation will vanish. Runaway inflation at a time when the baby boomer generation is reaching retirement and we are past peak oil production would be catastrophic so the Fed will probably take a proactive stance against inflation this time.

In the past the Fed has waited till inflation got a firm root before they chased it up with interest rates and that didn't work so well. We saw the real estate bubble that formed due to the easy money policies suddenly implode when the Fed put the brakes on with higher interest rates. The same thing happened in the 1926 to 1929 period. After the Florida real estate bubble broke in 1926 money leaving that market built another bubble in stock prices which eventually burst. Bernanke can't be stupid enough to let the country repeat that exercise.

[edit on 20-7-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

reply to post by audas


I agree, sooner or later we will be feeling more than just the pinch of lost income.

Deflation will be followed by inflation and the government will sugar coated with progress as usual.

Let see what the Fed have to say about the economy on Wed.



[edit on 20-7-2009 by marg6043]

Now, now I wasn't expecting news like this one coming from a company that has been profiting since the war on terror was created thanks to war profiteering.

I guess the economic woes most be really bad all around when Haliburton is losing money and cutting jobs.

Halliburton Profit Drops 47%, but Tops Forecasts

Now that is almost half of what they used to made, this is terrible news.

Halliburton, the world's second-largest oilfield services company, reported a 47 percent drop in quarterly profit as spending on oil and natural gas projects in North America slumped sharply.

www.cnbc.com...

I wonder if Haliburton will pack and move oversea because the US slump, oops they are already all over the world.

I wonder how the oil barons in the US will be doing.

While is talks that we may be heading for another Global meldown economically the signs have been sugar coated as usual, but numbers no matter how much they are fixed sometimes is hard to keep them hidden.

Remember Brown is the one that is complaining about the propaganda of the green shoots.

I guess he was preparing for this bad news.

UK GDP to Post Biggest Fall Since the War: Ernst & Young

UK gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to shrink by 4.5 percent this year, the largest decline since 1945, and recent hopes of recovery are running well ahead of reality, Ernst & Young warned in a forecast released Monday.

A "subdued recovery" of half a percentage point is likely to follow for the UK economy next year, but a sustainable improvement will only be attained when world trade starts to pick up, the Ernst & Young ITEM Club summer forecast showed.

I wonder how this one will be deal with to avoid paranoia after the cheerleaders has been claiming that we are almost out of the recession.

www.cnbc.com...

Lets blame the swine flu for this one

reply to post by audas


Perhaps. But as I am not being paid in $10billion dollar notes, I will have to assume we are not at "that stage" yet. Nor do I think we will ever be at that stage.

The Fed has tried to pump money into the markets, but it would appear money has disappeared faster than they produced it.. Zimbabwe is an interesting story, but it has no relation to the World economy.

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate

Bernanke can't be stupid enough to let the country repeat that exercise.

[edit on 20-7-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

Bernanke is clinging to the hope that, if Wall St "looks" ok, Main St. will buy into the charade..but Main St ain't buyin' it...'cause they're strapped

He has put all of his chips on the banks, and he is completely discounting the tax and debt slaves that make it all possible....He will fail.

Look at the earnings numbers coming out of Main St..down 30% on average...profit may be up do to mass layoffs and belt tightening, but you only get that "bump" one time...AND there is a directed effort to replace the dollar as reserve (no matter what you might hear to the contrary)...this all spells epic fail...

They (TPTB) had their chance to turn this all around, but instead of bailing out the people, they bailed out their partners in crime (no surprise here)

Goldman just raised its 2009 year end S&P target to 1060...guess what they're doing? Of course.. they're shorting the call, parting more fools from their $$...

Enjoy the run up, and I sincerely hope you all make money, but don't be fooled...

By Spring of 2010 Dow = 2500-3500, S&P= 220-250...hold me to it

Originally posted by RolandBrichter
By Spring of 2010 Dow = 2500-3500, S&P= 220-250...hold me to it

I will....

And the fact is, when you are a trader, you don't necessarily trade what you believe, but trade where the markets are going. I am somebody who doesn't feel comfortable taking a side in this market at this level so I would rather just do neutral strategies with options. If you think the S&P is going to 220-250 I don't understand why you wouldn't begin shorting here and just average up or buy leap calls to hedge your position.

Where is HX????

I'm going to use one his terms. We are scroomed

Collapse? When? Is it going to happen? Even if it doesn't at least you can find comfort in the knowledge in knowing we are all in the whole about $76,000 more dollars.

You know will all this money that we have been taxed, the bill just hasn't come due yet, I'm sure a bunch of us on here could have turned that into even more money.

Originally posted by Hastobemoretolife
Where is HX????

I'm going to use one his terms. We are scroomed

Collapse? When? Is it going to happen? Even if it doesn't at least you can find comfort in the knowledge in knowing we are all in the whole about $76,000 more dollars.

You know will all this money that we have been taxed, the bill just hasn't come due yet, I'm sure a bunch of us on here could have turned that into even more money.

Oh I'm still lurking in the background

This ~$23T is spent/pledged in AIG/Freddie M/Fannie M/Ginny M/GM/CHY...

Maiden Lane 1-2-3...

Citi/BofA/GS/JPM/ect ect ect

Fed/Treas say just cause it's pledged doesn't mean it'll be used... :shk:

What a crock...we have already paid 100% on a bunch of AIG losses and have up to 45 yrs on contracts they're hoping will be canceled...not...

[edit on 7/20/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Hx3_1963

Oh I'm still lurking in the background

This ~$23T is spent/pledged in AIG/Freddie M/Fannie M/Ginny M/GM/CHY...

Maiden Lane 1-2-3...

Citi/BofA/GS/JPM/ect ect ect

Fed/Treas say just cause it's pledged doesn't mean it'll be used...

What a crock...we have already paid 100% on a bunch of AIG losses and have up to 45 yrs on contracts they're hoping will be canceled...not...

[edit on 7/20/2009 by Hx3_1963]

There you are, just hanging out in the background trying to put the brakes on from heading into the fire at 2 million miles an hour..

Either it will be used while the economy is bad or when it gets better it will just "disappear".

I know what you are saying, they just can't stop from stealing.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor



The probability of this being a serious resistance level or even the start of a double top formation seems a little more likely given the background data I've been tracking. Resistance levels like this are good places to unload stocks, but not very safe places to buy. Last time we got to 950/8800 it turned into a feeding zone for 2 weeks, so a short term spread strategy would not work. Beyond the usual technical indicators market psychology should give us some indication how people might react this time.

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

The probability of this being a serious resistance level or even the start of a double top formation seems a little more likely given the background data I've been tracking. Resistance levels like this are good places to unload stocks, but not very safe places to buy. Last time we got to 950/8800 it turned into a feeding zone for 2 weeks, so a short term spread strategy would not work. Beyond the usual technical indicators market psychology should give us some indication how people might react this time.

Basically what you are saying is that it can go either way. Basically that is exactly what my strategy is. As long as things don't stay flat. And I can't see it staying flat with Bernanke, Tech and UPS and other S&P 500 companies reporting this week.