The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by audas

 

You are absolutely right, we are now heading to inflation, state and federal hike in taxes and not enough taxable income to support the federal government's debt.

And as for unemployment let not forget the millions taking pay cuts.

Inflation is in our way no matter how the government is trying to make it look unimportant.

The markets, the economy has been flooded with worthless money.

Actually I think it's the other way around.. the Tax Hikes are only covering spending already scheduled as the States and Fed is broke.. taking billions more OUT of the economy..

If anything, this will reduce purchasing power (especially Obama's plans..) rather significantly.. I calculated our own income vs. proposed Health Care taxes and it was nearly an additional 4k a year in taxes (AGI) .. that's 4k I won't have to go out to movies, buy a car, money towards a house or whatever (or !@$ even to eat)

The Tax policies are enforcing the current Deflationary Spiral we have been in since last October.

Originally posted by Rockpuck


The Tax policies are enforcing the current Deflationary Spiral we have been in since last October.

I wish there was some record which would show how the "deflationary spiral" looks like. The CPI wouldn't do the job -- there has been no decrease in this index since last October. Even the bust in the gas prices couldn't affect the CPI to show a minus sign before the number. As far as the arbitrary prices set by the futures traders are concerned, they are not included in the CPI for obvious reasons. The whole "deflationary spiral" is a contradiction to the growing unemployment. The decrease in value of various assets during the financial hoopla cannot be included in CPI, coz these are well outside the production of goods and services. Of course, the "deflationary spiral" got mandate on life by the lay home owners who saw their house value bursting -- value based on "if I wanted to sell my house" idea. But that doesn't count. The housing starts index went down deep but not the price the contractor asks you for building the new house. If the construction folks cut their salary by more than 25% maybe they wouldn't form quickly their own lines in EDD offices and Arnold wouldn't have to repeat the Terminator lines.

I have now been able to wrap my brain around what is going on.

This is a slow decline, I think that has been said earlier, that is why these numbers fluctuate so much.

Like just now new home construction is up. I think it has to do with the fact that some people think it can't get any worse so they are taking advantage of low costs.

Even though the trending line will be a decline over a long period of time.

________

Also if there is discussion about changing the name of the this thread, I'll throw out my idea.

"Current Market Data and Observations"

No, yes?

[edit on 18-7-2009 by Hastobemoretolife]

Slow decline from here on out a couple years in the housing market makes sense. I'm still trying to figure out what is going on with equity prices.

Goldman Sachs just got done bragging about how much money they made from manipulating stock prices using high frequency trading. That means the money came out of the stock market somehow. Dividends have been cut by half and even to quarters of their earnings last year so there is no incentive to buy stocks to hold for their dividend earnings. If the smart money traders are making profits its not from when they buy the stock obviously. There is no way smart money is buying tops and holding shares.

Logically the stock markets should also currently be in a slow decline over some long term average if huge profits are being removed.

[edit on 18-7-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
Slow decline from here on out a couple years in the housing market makes sense. I'm still trying to figure out what is going on with equity prices.

Goldman Sachs just got done bragging about how much money they made from manipulating stock prices using high frequency trading. That means the money came out of the stock market somehow. Dividends have been cut by half and even to quarters of their earnings last year so there is no incentive to buy stocks to hold for their dividend earnings. If the smart money traders are making profits its not from when they buy the stock obviously. There is no way smart money is buying tops and holding shares.

Logically the stock markets should also currently be in a slow decline over some long term average if huge profits are being removed.

[edit on 18-7-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

Well when it comes to Goldman, it was either you or somebody else that posted an article on how the GS program makes its money by not trading for a dollar profit here or there, but makes profit by making fractions of pennies.

So technically, they could make these billion of dollars without ever really effecting stock prices. From what I can gather they are actually stealing money out of the market before stock prices even change.

I wonder if anybody has the charts from Japan over the past 14 or 15 years. I think we are looking at the wrong things, Japans situation during their lost decade seems a lot more similar then what we are going through.

I don't know just some differing ideas.

Originally posted by Hastobemoretolife

Well when it comes to Goldman, it was either you or somebody else that posted an article on how the GS program makes its money by not trading for a dollar profit here or there, but makes profit by making fractions of pennies.

So technically, they could make these billion of dollars without ever really effecting stock prices. From what I can gather they are actually stealing money out of the market before stock prices even change.

I wonder if anybody has the charts from Japan over the past 14 or 15 years. I think we are looking at the wrong things, Japans situation during their lost decade seems a lot more similar then what we are going through.

I don't know just some differing ideas.

I posted that article and I believe you are right when it comes to these automated trades that usually buy and sell at fractions of a second and fractions of a penny. I think this can be comparable to when daytraders scalp (like someone buying a stock at 10 dollars and putting a limit sell order in for 9.90 and 10.10 attempting to make a 10cent/share profit not caring where it ends up). Though I do believe market makers may temporarily manipulate prices since they can see other people's orders, these automated systems purpose does not seem to be to manipulate prices but more to just make a fraction of a penny many times throughout the day...Not to say Goldman Sachs doesn't manipulate share prices sometimes...

[edit on 18-7-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

That is a good point RR but ramping prices only works temporarily. Money is made as buyers walk out the skywalk and up the illusory ramp, but at some point they realize they are holding an overpriced item. For the last to buy sadly, its the MSM that has to tell them.

reply to post by stander

I wish there was some record which would show how the "deflationary spiral" looks like. The CPI wouldn't do the job -- there has been no decrease in this index since last October.

True.. yet last November - February we saw the single largest decline in retail prices in history ..... and yet the CPI remained "positive".

Corporations lay people off
People spend less
Prices drop
Corporations lay people off
People spend less
Prices drop
Corporations lay people off
People spend less
Prices drop
Corporations lay people off
People spend less
Prices drop

You get the idea. The only thing that will cause prices to INCREASE is the deflating value of the currency (which since hitting it's 7 year high after the crash has resumed it's continued deterioration). Though a man as smart as you knows that as the Dollar deteriorates and prices rise but "inflation" has no effect on the Middle Class's income, as it's stagnant, consumers ultimately spend less, and thus corporations will lay more people off, and the cycle goes on.

Government numbers are worth as much as the toilet paper I use to .........

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Equities are easy to manipulate for anyone with a bankroll really, unless you are trading a "most active" stock

You could fool around in Level II all day and "play the game" if you wanted to..

Even though you will lose lol

reply to post by Rockpuck

If you saw prices going down in the place where you live than be advised that it is the only place where the miracle happened. If you base you idea of the prices except gas going down on the fifty-year-old theory, which holds that manufacturers are lowering prices when demand is slowing down, then welcome to the realities -- this is no longer true, as the unemployment continued to grow. The math is really simple, and I don't know why is it not understood. If you lower the price of the items you make to keep the sales numbers the same, than there is no reason for you to layoff anyone, coz the demand keeps the same due to lower prices.
The name of the game is not to give up the prices at all. That goes mainly for the food industry.

According to the Consumer Price Index, the price of gasoline dropped 57% between July and December 2008. The price of food rose 2% during this same time period. Why is that?

WhyWhyWhy?

Coz the "Keynesian models" are not selling well. The textbook capitalism is obsolete crap, even though Kimberley tries to hold on it:
useconomy.about.com...

I keep my own records, and I know that food prices have risen by some 35% since 2005 around the place I live. And now when gas prices rose from the dead the producers are ready to hike the food prices complaining about gas getting expensive once again.

The deflation spiral is a myth -- it's a ghost haunting inside the deflated bubble that burst after the subprime instruments blew into it. There are items in the stores that are too high for me to buy, but if the price goes down, I can possibly buy them. Can this be compared to the ability to buy a house? All of a sudden, plenty of folks who couldn't afford to buy a house could. Was it because the houses got cheaper to build?

No, it wasn't due to the deflation of house prices. Was it because the construction companies flooded the market with houses and needed to sell them at lower price, like close-to-expire deli item?

No, it wasn't the case either. There are tricks that the turn-of-the-century economists couldn't even dream about, so there is no reason to go by their outdated ideas.

There was a deflation of prices, but these prices were not displayed at the stores. I don't give a sh-t about Bear Sterns deflating from $171 to $2 per share. But there are many folks who decided to mix apples and oranges, and now everything we buy is cheaper. Nice case of brainwashing.

So we go through deflation, but other folks complain about stuff getting too expensive. It's all Prozac Goulash served with Well-Tempted Roll.


[edit on 7/18/2009 by stander]

For people concerned about inflation who are disenchanted with the stock market, Inflation Protected Treasuries might be a solution. Guaranteed to keep up with inflation and there aren't any GS bots running around nibbling double digits off your principal like there have been recently in the stock markets.

There is a Fed auction July 27th for 20 year TIPS. Anyone know how many billion $ worth are being sold?

I was wondering if anyone could estimate how much money the oil companies would hypothetically loose once the vehicle market goes completely to a gas alternative; such as batteries or hydrogen?

Just wondering what the number or percent would be.

We use oil in man other things, here's a few lists:
Fifty Things Made From Oil
Some Products From Oil
Short List of Products Made with Oil

Originally posted by warrenb
I was wondering if anyone could estimate how much money the oil companies would hypothetically loose once the vehicle market goes completely to a gas alternative; such as batteries or hydrogen?

Just wondering what the number or percent would be.

We use oil in man other things, here's a few lists:
Fifty Things Made From Oil
Some Products From Oil
Short List of Products Made with Oil

Honestly, probably not much because they will probably be "officially" behind the new technology and will have their hands in it...

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

Equities are easy to manipulate for anyone with a bankroll really, unless you are trading a "most active" stock

You could fool around in Level II all day and "play the game" if you wanted to..

Even though you will lose lol

I think the best things to buy are heavily shorted small cap high beta stocks. Guaranteed to make a buck when the shares are covered...You are right, you can manipulate small caps easily (not me but if you had bunches of money ) That is why I like Forex better than stocks, very difficult to manipulate currencies unless a central bank allows you to.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


there is a website where you can go see all the top shorted stocks.. i forget the name now though.. last I checked I think CITI was still on top though with over 1,000,000,000 shares short or something lol..

but it is shady, because it does not update all the time, I think once every 2 weeks or 1 time every month.. so no one knows (except the ones making money lol) for sure who is doing what till the end of the month

So this week there is barely any economic news but a huge amount of reports are coming out. Some financials, like Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo and regional banks as well as big tech like Apple. Also UPS and Boeing. After this week, the big tech and financials will be out of the way and companies that actually need to sell things in order to do well will be reporting like resource stocks, so this could pose a problem for a rally. Texas Instruments reports Monday...Apple reports on Tuesday...these could easily make for a bounce for the NasDaq if GUIDANCE is good (Apple rarely gives great guidance though as they like feeding analysts and investors low numbers so they can beat them).

Originally posted by warrenb
I was wondering if anyone could estimate how much money the oil companies would hypothetically loose once the vehicle market goes completely to a gas alternative; such as batteries or hydrogen?

Just wondering what the number or percent would be.

We use oil in man other things, here's a few lists:
Fifty Things Made From Oil
Some Products From Oil
Short List of Products Made with Oil

If and its a big if we can start making cars that run off of "Something Else" I dont think the oil companies will take that big a hit. As a raw product its used in almost everything including this laptop I'm writing on. if anything not having to put so much time money and effort in gasoline production we might just have an explosion of new cheaper products

Originally posted by Hastobemoretolife

Like just now new home construction is up. I think it has to do with the fact that some people think it can't get any worse so they are taking advantage of low costs.
[edit on 18-7-2009 by Hastobemoretolife]

If you follow the housing market closely then you'd see many of these new homes are being sold below the cost to build. Why they do it is simply to stay in business... one day, maybe another five, to ten years that market will stabilize and those still in the biz will be there to take advantage.. remember most experts still predict another 25% drop before it does turn around so we have a long way to go yet... Again follow the numbers, new home construction is so low right now just adding a few to your list makes a big impact

reply to post by DaddyBare


True true.

I have a question you are very knowledgeable about the real estate market. I notice that there are still new houses being built in housing developments. Is there a clause in the contracts between the developer and construction companies that say the construction company must build "x" amount of houses or it's a breach of contract?

Also what is the Horny Toad telling you this week in the market is looking like.

That was good!

I love the inflation and deflation arguments. I'm still leaning towards deflation. I remember about this time last year with gas prices rising daily whilst simultaneously getting bent over at the grocery store.

Three things that I know for a fact that I'm not spending as much as I was last year on.

Milk was almost $5 a gallon last year, paid under $3 for it last week.

A gallon of gas was in the $4 range last year, filled up today for $2.17/gallon.

Other foods seem to be mostly stable with some being the same as last year some being slightly higher and some being a tad lower.

A friend of mine bought a house two years ago for $153,000, refinanced it last month for 135,000.

I still seeing deleveraging in the consumer. Many people are making less money than they were last year (myself included).

I still think deflation benefits the PTB more than high inflation or hyper-inflation and that is what we are still seeing.