Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
I agree with this guy but that doesn't mean the markets don't go up in hopes for more green shoots in the second half. If those fail to materialize then you could definitely see a crash...

"More" green shoots would indicate that previous green shoots had actually been present and seen in the system. Said "green shoots" were phantom apparitions Bernanke hoped and prayed people would believe existed. The fact that the market is back on the downward slide demonstrates just how real those were to begin with.

Originally posted by burdman30ott6

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
I agree with this guy but that doesn't mean the markets don't go up in hopes for more green shoots in the second half. If those fail to materialize then you could definitely see a crash...

"More" green shoots would indicate that previous green shoots had actually been present and seen in the system. Said "green shoots" were phantom apparitions Bernanke hoped and prayed people would believe existed. The fact that the market is back on the downward slide demonstrates just how real those were to begin with.

Haha! The markets are like an emotionally challenged schizophrenic. They do not base its actions in reality usually. That is what many of you do not understand. If there was an ATS hedge fund, it would be bankrupt. Not because ATS is wrong, for the most part they are right, it is just the markets aren't realistic.

Also..the government needs to sell treasuries this week and the dollar was getting too low. If you think the government doesn't know what it is doing by talking about a second stimulus, then you are stupid.

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor

Also..the government needs to sell treasuries this week and the dollar was getting too low. If you think the government doesn't know what it is doing by talking about a second stimulus, then you are stupid.

I think you are right here, but they will only be able to pull that move off one more time before the non .gov funded PT's call the bluff....for them, there is just as much $$ to make in a downswing...

Again, I think all of this posturing will be for naught...Commercial RE, Over-levered insurance companies, and the rest of the derivatives scandal will all come to equilibrium at some point, and probably all at the same time.

We (western civilization) are in an economic paradigm shift...things will NEVER be the same as it was, and that is a GOOD thing!

Originally posted by RolandBrichter

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor

Also..the government needs to sell treasuries this week and the dollar was getting too low. If you think the government doesn't know what it is doing by talking about a second stimulus, then you are stupid.

I think you are right here, but they will only be able to pull that move off one more time before the non .gov funded PT's call the bluff....for them, there is just as much $$ to make in a downswing...

Again, I think all of this posturing will be for naught...Commercial RE, Over-levered insurance companies, and the rest of the derivatives scandal will all come to equilibrium at some point, and probably all at the same time.

We (western civilization) are in an economic paradigm shift...things will NEVER be the same as it was, and that is a GOOD thing!

That is the thing, there comes a time where shorting does NOT make you as much as being long. I think we can all agree that the DOW won't go to zero. So what is the most they can make without a true horrible catalyst? DOW 7500? DOW 7000? What is the most they can make without a true catalyst except hope? DOW 9500? DOW 10000? There is still more money to be made to the upside in the short term. If this market tumbles another 300 pts on the DOW, watch and see how everyone becomes scared again. That is when to buy. Of course don't bet the house on it. But take it from someone who bought very high beta names in late february/early march (though I sold way way too soon). I am not in the equity markets at all right now as I have said I just trade forex. And I don't trade most of my money. I just think it is a mistake to think the stock market is going to crash right now. Key word, right now

I've been playing around with some of the leveraged ETF's and those you almost need to session trade because they don't do well in sideways trading.

The high for the double short fund SKF was 46.3 both yesterday and today despite the Dow closing down over 160 points today? FAS the triple long ETF fund made a low yesterday of 7.89 and today the low was 7.85.

If these ETF's are really free market driven then it looks like both short and long investors are expecting a turn around to the upside.

Good post by Pause4thought! When you look at the big picture it really is a long bridge they appear to be building.



[edit on 7-7-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
I've been playing around with some of the leveraged ETF's and those you almost need to session trade because they don't do well in sideways trading.

The high for the double short fund SKF was 46.3 both yesterday and today despite the Dow closing down over 160 points today? FAS the triple long ETF fund made a low yesterday of 7.89 and today the low was 7.85.

If these ETF's are really free market driven then it looks like both short and long investors are expecting a turn around to the upside.

Good post by Pause4thought! When you look at the big picture it really is a long bridge they appear to be building.



[edit on 7-7-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

Honestly...stay away from etf's. They don't do what they are supposed to. Especially the ones that follow commodities based on future contracts due to contango and roll over discrepancies and especially especially the leveraged etf's. Look at USO for instance compared to oil. I am curious to see what happens with UNG once natural gas prices start to edge higher eventually.

both the S&P and Dow weekly schocastics are rolling over that means 3-4 months of down or sideways at best market action... beginning 2 days ago.

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
I just think it is a mistake to think the stock market is going to crash right now. Key word, right now

It's not a mistake to think that the market will crash right now, the way most mistakes occur; it's a 100-mile detour from realistic thinking. A mistake can occur during a rational calculation, but thinking that the market is heading for the bust pronto is not based on a rational thought. The short average slope of decline is not indicative at all that the speculators anticipate a major failure in the earning power of those 30 horses they bet on. First of all, the margin of daily profit taking eroded and it's about time to find 3Q bottom and refresh the process of day trading. That's what is all amounts to. Bern Stearns curve to hell may not be that representative but is sufficient enough tool NOT to support the idea that the market is going for a bust in 3Q. Just do the matching.

Does anyone think that the players hit the sustain pedal, and the Dow will play tomorrow "America the Beautiful" two octaves lower?

If anyone predicts tomorrow Dow percentage gain or decline with .25% accuracy, then that person may have some understanding of the market engine. But it's the next four day performance that determines the intentions of the market manipulators how to re-shape the roller coaster to better serve its purpose.

[edit on 7/8/2009 by stander]

I think before I begin buying I need to see banks correct and not just tech and resource stocks. Some financials are just so expensive right now, like Wells Fargo and JP Morgan. Financials have not been going down, it is all the resource stocks that have been getting beaten up (high beta names have gone down almost 40% on average). If financials have a correction then you will see the DOW have another leg down. I will play these leg downs as buying opportunities though as I don't believe markets are going as low as some people think anytime soon. Maybe in 2010 we will see another crash, but there needs to be a real surprise.

Originally posted by stander

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
I just think it is a mistake to think the stock market is going to crash right now. Key word, right now

It's not a mistake to think that the market will crash right now, the way most mistakes occur; it's a 100-mile detour from realistic thinking. A mistake can occur during a rational calculation, but thinking that the market is heading for the bust pronto is not based on a rational thought. The short average slope of decline is not indicative at all that the speculators anticipate a major failure in the earning power of those 30 horses they bet on. First of all, the margin of daily profit taking eroded and it's about time to find 3Q bottom and refresh the process of day trading. That's what is all amounts to. Bern Stearns curve to hell may not be that representative but is sufficient enough tool to support an idea that the market is going for a bust in 3Q. Just do the matching.

Does anyone think that the players hit the sustain pedal, and the Dow will play tomorrow "America the Beautiful" two octaves lower?

If anyone predicts tomorrow Dow percentage gain or decline with .25% accuracy, then that person may have some understanding of the market engine. But it's the next four day performance that determines the intentions of the market manipulators how to re-shape the roller coaster to better serve its purpose.

Then short the markets and buy puts on the markets and buy AAA debt. But something tells me you are not going to short the markets.

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
Then short the markets and buy puts on the markets and buy AAA debt. But something tells me you are not going to short the markets.

LOL. Are you suggesting to buy something rated triple A by Standard & Poor? That amounts to buying AAA bateries for you calculator to see how deep sh-t can be.

Some folks are apprehensive about the state of economy and the direction which it may be heading, and since the market bust of '29 preceded the Great Depression, they regard the market as a barometer of things to come. So when the market is heading temporarily south, the trip can create jitters. But there are many reasons for the change in the direction and the true reason doesn't have to be similar to the one where the market started to decline back in '29. A major loss of confidence propagates itself in a different way then the present market indicates. Also, the modern trading is different from the pre-war market activities where dividend-oriented investment was a factor in purchasing stock. Today, stock is traded kind of like the futures and the money-making strategies are different. And so the market performance is not that reliable indicator where the economy is going as it was the case some fifty years ago.