The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Originally posted by marg6043
More dooms predictions,

For those that are seen what is coming our way this fall, you are all right, because recovery it's not.

Proprietary Trading May Cause October Crash: Investor,

Global stock markets could crash in October, as by then it will be clear that the economic recovery many people pinned their hopes on will not materialize, the stimulus option will no longer be a viable one, and proprietary trading desks will decide to go short, economist and investor Enzio von Pfeil, CEO of EconomicClock.com, told CNBC.

"The economic time has to worsen and so these green shoots will morph into black shoots very badly, culminating probably in an October crash," Pfeil said.

This people most be keeping up with our thread here in ATS

"People will finally accept that the unemployment rates will have to keep rising, that productivity will have to keep falling," he added. That in turn will make earnings expectations "fall through the floor."

www.cnbc.com...

Interesting, but didn't we told that already here.

I agree with this guy but that doesn't mean the markets don't go up in hopes for more green shoots in the second half. If those fail to materialize then you could definitely see a crash...

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
I agree with this guy but that doesn't mean the markets don't go up in hopes for more green shoots in the second half. If those fail to materialize then you could definitely see a crash...

"More" green shoots would indicate that previous green shoots had actually been present and seen in the system. Said "green shoots" were phantom apparitions Bernanke hoped and prayed people would believe existed. The fact that the market is back on the downward slide demonstrates just how real those were to begin with.

Originally posted by burdman30ott6

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
I agree with this guy but that doesn't mean the markets don't go up in hopes for more green shoots in the second half. If those fail to materialize then you could definitely see a crash...

"More" green shoots would indicate that previous green shoots had actually been present and seen in the system. Said "green shoots" were phantom apparitions Bernanke hoped and prayed people would believe existed. The fact that the market is back on the downward slide demonstrates just how real those were to begin with.

Haha! The markets are like an emotionally challenged schizophrenic. They do not base its actions in reality usually. That is what many of you do not understand. If there was an ATS hedge fund, it would be bankrupt. Not because ATS is wrong, for the most part they are right, it is just the markets aren't realistic.

Also..the government needs to sell treasuries this week and the dollar was getting too low. If you think the government doesn't know what it is doing by talking about a second stimulus, then you are stupid.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Remember my friend, that the markets are too big to fail so as usual anything for the markets just to keep the illusion of recovery.

That is what has been going on since the mortgage bubble crash, trillions has been injected in the markets, first the fed and their cash infusions, then the government intervention and the bail outs.

Still the cash infusions are failing and fail they will, because manipulation is never good for the health of financial system.

Too big to fail indeed, until our nation will be no more.

reply to post by burdman30ott6


You said it burdman. And thanks for putting it in context: back to the end of April -



[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/43161235788d.png[/atsimg]


8169.27 -155.60 down 1.87%

Source


There's still no telling how much longer the facade can be maintained. The MSM is sure trying, though. Check this out:

Worst of the recession 'is over'

Extract:

The worst of the UK's recession is over, according to the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) business group, but talk of a recovery is premature.

Its report, based on a survey of 5,600 companies, found there had been "welcome progress" in confidence levels between April and June.

But the BCC still expects unemployment to reach 3.2 million by 2010.

However, official data showed that manufacturing output fell 0.5% in May. Analysts had forecast a rise of 0.2%.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the monthly fall was driven by a 2% decline in the paper, printing and publishing industries.

Industrial production, a wider measure which includes energy supply, mining and oil and gas as well as manufacturing, fell 0.6% against forecasts of a rise of 0.2%.

Economists say the surprise contraction now makes it less likely that the economy returned to growth in the second quarter.

How many readers would be careful enough to notice that the positive slant is based on nothing but opinion and intangible 'confidence levels'? The BBC is looking more & more like a propaganda machine by the day.

Sound familiar?

Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

Remember my friend, that the markets are too big to fail so as usual anything for the markets just to keep the illusion of recovery.

That is what has been going on since the mortgage bubble crash, trillions has been injected in the markets, first the fed and their cash infusions, then the government intervention and the bail outs.

Still the cash infusions are failing and fail they will, because manipulation is never good for the health of financial system.

Too big to fail indeed, until our nation will be no more.

The stock market is still being firmly controlled by the government. I cannot convey this message in any other way. And it isn't difficult. The stock market went down because the admin. is talking about the possibility of a second stimulus. THEY KNOW THIS WILL TANK THE MARKETS! They also know this will help them sell their debt. But one of these days that little game will end and people will not rush to the debt or equity markets. Until then, the markets will not trade based on reality. That is why, when I say, markets will go up in anticipation for the 2nd half, that doesn't mean I think things are good. But you need to be a trader or you lose money. I do well trading though. But I would not be able to stand only trading which is why I have a real job as well...

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Thanks for the explanation I see where you coming from as usual what can you expect with our markets, manipulation by the government, but then they are stupid enough that the rest of the world is not watching.

I hope that our buyers will just say not to the sell of treasuries just for once to see the rats in Washington running for their life in panic.

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor

Also..the government needs to sell treasuries this week and the dollar was getting too low. If you think the government doesn't know what it is doing by talking about a second stimulus, then you are stupid.

I think you are right here, but they will only be able to pull that move off one more time before the non .gov funded PT's call the bluff....for them, there is just as much $$ to make in a downswing...

Again, I think all of this posturing will be for naught...Commercial RE, Over-levered insurance companies, and the rest of the derivatives scandal will all come to equilibrium at some point, and probably all at the same time.

We (western civilization) are in an economic paradigm shift...things will NEVER be the same as it was, and that is a GOOD thing!

You said it, RB!


DJIA at close:

8163.60 -161.27 down 1.94%



Here's the Dow over the last 3 months:



[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/8b55af544c98.png[/atsimg]

Source

And finally, over the last 12 months:



[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/6379cd19f60c.png[/atsimg]

Source



[edit to add:]

Click on the source links to see the graphs without parts of June/July cut off!




[edit on 7/7/09 by pause4thought]

Originally posted by RolandBrichter

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor

Also..the government needs to sell treasuries this week and the dollar was getting too low. If you think the government doesn't know what it is doing by talking about a second stimulus, then you are stupid.

I think you are right here, but they will only be able to pull that move off one more time before the non .gov funded PT's call the bluff....for them, there is just as much $$ to make in a downswing...

Again, I think all of this posturing will be for naught...Commercial RE, Over-levered insurance companies, and the rest of the derivatives scandal will all come to equilibrium at some point, and probably all at the same time.

We (western civilization) are in an economic paradigm shift...things will NEVER be the same as it was, and that is a GOOD thing!

That is the thing, there comes a time where shorting does NOT make you as much as being long. I think we can all agree that the DOW won't go to zero. So what is the most they can make without a true horrible catalyst? DOW 7500? DOW 7000? What is the most they can make without a true catalyst except hope? DOW 9500? DOW 10000? There is still more money to be made to the upside in the short term. If this market tumbles another 300 pts on the DOW, watch and see how everyone becomes scared again. That is when to buy. Of course don't bet the house on it. But take it from someone who bought very high beta names in late february/early march (though I sold way way too soon). I am not in the equity markets at all right now as I have said I just trade forex. And I don't trade most of my money. I just think it is a mistake to think the stock market is going to crash right now. Key word, right now

I've been playing around with some of the leveraged ETF's and those you almost need to session trade because they don't do well in sideways trading.

The high for the double short fund SKF was 46.3 both yesterday and today despite the Dow closing down over 160 points today? FAS the triple long ETF fund made a low yesterday of 7.89 and today the low was 7.85.

If these ETF's are really free market driven then it looks like both short and long investors are expecting a turn around to the upside.

Good post by Pause4thought! When you look at the big picture it really is a long bridge they appear to be building.



[edit on 7-7-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
I've been playing around with some of the leveraged ETF's and those you almost need to session trade because they don't do well in sideways trading.

The high for the double short fund SKF was 46.3 both yesterday and today despite the Dow closing down over 160 points today? FAS the triple long ETF fund made a low yesterday of 7.89 and today the low was 7.85.

If these ETF's are really free market driven then it looks like both short and long investors are expecting a turn around to the upside.

Good post by Pause4thought! When you look at the big picture it really is a long bridge they appear to be building.



[edit on 7-7-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

Honestly...stay away from etf's. They don't do what they are supposed to. Especially the ones that follow commodities based on future contracts due to contango and roll over discrepancies and especially especially the leveraged etf's. Look at USO for instance compared to oil. I am curious to see what happens with UNG once natural gas prices start to edge higher eventually.

Pope Urges New World Economic Order New York Times, July 7

Pope Benedict XVI on Tuesday called for a radical rethinking of the global economy, criticizing a growing divide between rich and poor and urging the establishment of a “world political authority” to oversee the economy and work for the “common good.”

Hmmn... a New World Order in which the global economy is controlled by a world political authority... Where does he get these ideas?

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
I just think it is a mistake to think the stock market is going to crash right now. Key word, right now

I wouldn't say I'm expecting a "crash"..but I would say a retracement back to reality is in order...

If you have the time and inclination...

No Recovery, No Way, No How

Then again, "reality" is becoming more and more subjective these days..


[edit on 7-7-2009 by RolandBrichter]

both the S&P and Dow weekly schocastics are rolling over that means 3-4 months of down or sideways at best market action... beginning 2 days ago.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Interesting comparison.

/mbcput

Some of the ETF's seem to stay fairly close to whatever they are a derivative of while others lag slide etc. The ETF's with large trading volume seem to do better but when everybody wants to get out all at once there can be some real lags. On the other hand a hurricane headed for the western gulf can run up prices prematurely.

[edit on 7-7-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
I just think it is a mistake to think the stock market is going to crash right now. Key word, right now

It's not a mistake to think that the market will crash right now, the way most mistakes occur; it's a 100-mile detour from realistic thinking. A mistake can occur during a rational calculation, but thinking that the market is heading for the bust pronto is not based on a rational thought. The short average slope of decline is not indicative at all that the speculators anticipate a major failure in the earning power of those 30 horses they bet on. First of all, the margin of daily profit taking eroded and it's about time to find 3Q bottom and refresh the process of day trading. That's what is all amounts to. Bern Stearns curve to hell may not be that representative but is sufficient enough tool NOT to support the idea that the market is going for a bust in 3Q. Just do the matching.

Does anyone think that the players hit the sustain pedal, and the Dow will play tomorrow "America the Beautiful" two octaves lower?

If anyone predicts tomorrow Dow percentage gain or decline with .25% accuracy, then that person may have some understanding of the market engine. But it's the next four day performance that determines the intentions of the market manipulators how to re-shape the roller coaster to better serve its purpose.

[edit on 7/8/2009 by stander]

I think before I begin buying I need to see banks correct and not just tech and resource stocks. Some financials are just so expensive right now, like Wells Fargo and JP Morgan. Financials have not been going down, it is all the resource stocks that have been getting beaten up (high beta names have gone down almost 40% on average). If financials have a correction then you will see the DOW have another leg down. I will play these leg downs as buying opportunities though as I don't believe markets are going as low as some people think anytime soon. Maybe in 2010 we will see another crash, but there needs to be a real surprise.

Originally posted by stander

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
I just think it is a mistake to think the stock market is going to crash right now. Key word, right now

It's not a mistake to think that the market will crash right now, the way most mistakes occur; it's a 100-mile detour from realistic thinking. A mistake can occur during a rational calculation, but thinking that the market is heading for the bust pronto is not based on a rational thought. The short average slope of decline is not indicative at all that the speculators anticipate a major failure in the earning power of those 30 horses they bet on. First of all, the margin of daily profit taking eroded and it's about time to find 3Q bottom and refresh the process of day trading. That's what is all amounts to. Bern Stearns curve to hell may not be that representative but is sufficient enough tool to support an idea that the market is going for a bust in 3Q. Just do the matching.

Does anyone think that the players hit the sustain pedal, and the Dow will play tomorrow "America the Beautiful" two octaves lower?

If anyone predicts tomorrow Dow percentage gain or decline with .25% accuracy, then that person may have some understanding of the market engine. But it's the next four day performance that determines the intentions of the market manipulators how to re-shape the roller coaster to better serve its purpose.

Then short the markets and buy puts on the markets and buy AAA debt. But something tells me you are not going to short the markets.

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
Then short the markets and buy puts on the markets and buy AAA debt. But something tells me you are not going to short the markets.

LOL. Are you suggesting to buy something rated triple A by Standard & Poor? That amounts to buying AAA bateries for you calculator to see how deep sh-t can be.

Some folks are apprehensive about the state of economy and the direction which it may be heading, and since the market bust of '29 preceded the Great Depression, they regard the market as a barometer of things to come. So when the market is heading temporarily south, the trip can create jitters. But there are many reasons for the change in the direction and the true reason doesn't have to be similar to the one where the market started to decline back in '29. A major loss of confidence propagates itself in a different way then the present market indicates. Also, the modern trading is different from the pre-war market activities where dividend-oriented investment was a factor in purchasing stock. Today, stock is traded kind of like the futures and the money-making strategies are different. And so the market performance is not that reliable indicator where the economy is going as it was the case some fifty years ago.