The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread, page 395

reply to post by marg6043

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This is an updated (JUL 2) unemployment graph from Shadowstats

The SGS alternative is calculated the same way that unemployment was calculated during the Great Depression...




We will eclipse true 25% unemployment before the end of the year...

and...

The Birth Death model continues to cushion the headline job regardless of the short term expectations.



anyone see anything fishy about that chart?

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
Looks like the Feds are finally getting serious about auctioning off some of this debt!

www.bloomberg.com...

Now we know the REAL reason there's a sell off. Got to scare people into debt

'We're in the Middle of a Crash': Black Swan

The financial system is crashing and action must be taken by the US government to convert debt into equity to produce a more stable environment, Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan," told CNBC Thursday.

But the truth is that the economy even with all the "green shots" been called with the propaganda is still frail.

"You may have green shoots, whatever you want to call them, you may have temporary relief, but you are still in a world that's breaking," Taleb said on "Squawk Box."

Anything that's fragile like the financial system will eventually crash, he said.

"We're in the middle of a crash," Taleb said. "So if I'm going to forecast something, it is that it's going to get worse, not better."

The stimulus and the government approach is not working and we all can see that.

www.cnbc.com...

There sure have been a bunch of computer glitches here lately with the NYSE.

Somebody at another forum just showed me this link Uhh, I think we are in really really big trouble.

EPIC FAIL.

2 banks closing on a thursday...

John Warner Bank, costing 10 millions

And First State Bank of Winchester, costing 6 millions

EDIT: More Obama BS...


Senate bill fines people refusing health coverage

[edit on 2-7-2009 by Vitchilo]

Originally posted by Hastobemoretolife
There sure have been a bunch of computer glitches here lately with the NYSE.

Somebody at another forum just showed me this link Uhh, I think we are in really really big trouble.

the numbers are bad but not as bad as the blooger eludes too...
the Department of labor calls this report
Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
there are 6 catogories in this list U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate). Is the one the press reports... and today that was reported at 9.5%
U-6 labor force (official unemployment rate) thats everything is at 16.5% pretty high but not a huge leap, been close to that since March...

Now if you want to talk about huge leaps them look at the U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer...these are the folks about to be drop from the roles... one year ago it was only 1.8% but today thats up to 5.1%

[edit on 2-7-2009 by DaddyBare]

reply to post by DaddyBare

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For sure, I understand all that, what I as eluding too is that it took 3 years to reach 25% unemployment during the Great Depression, and we are sitting at 16% right now and we are only a year and half into it.

Now I know this is not like the Great Depression, but this is starting to shape up to be a lot worse than it.

reply to post by Hastobemoretolife

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Remember I pointed out the U-1 well that % gets dropped from the roles next month so there is another bigger hidden number no one knows or reports. 16.5% could very well be off by a lot

reply to post by DaddyBare

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Very true.

That 4% jump is nuts. They aren't telling us some very pertinent need to know information that has nothing to do with National Security.

I would really hate to see what that hidden number is. Makes me shudder.

reply to post by RolandBrichter

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I don't know how Shadow Stats comes up with their number, but I am always more inclined to believe unemployment is even higher than U6 reports. Their numbers now point well above 20% unemployment, which honestly is not unrealistic (counting underemployed).

U6 being at 16% alone, as an official government number is worrying enough..

WOW.. this made me say "Holy SH@#" out loud..

money.cnn.com...

7 BANKS SHUT DOWN IN ONE DAY, TODAY, THURSDAY JULY 2ND

This is the single largest closure of banks in one day.. costing the FDIC an estimated $314 million Dollars.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Seven banks were shut down by authorities Thursday, pushing the tally of failed banks for 2009 to 52, more than doubling the failures in 2008.

52 banks in 2009 (I thought things were getting better?)

Last year, 25 banks failed in the United States.

reply to post by Rockpuck

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That's what we were talking about with the U-1 see those people are at the end of their benefits that number isn't gaining its being replaced.

So in Feb 3.4% were dropped from the roles gone poof out of the program never to be counted again...it reset to 0%, for 30 days anyway... then came March and they dropped another 3.7% gone poof not to be counted... April we lost 4% May another 4.5% Today it was 5.1%

What were saying is there is a number out there..., people dropped from those roles no one counts... so we could be at a 25% unemployment rate ...???
see now why the U-1 is so tricky?

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