The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor



Yes, equities are a farce...pure manipulation by program traders...

Watch this...and I openly challenge anyone to show how and where he is wrong in his analysis ...




[edit on 1-7-2009 by RolandBrichter]

Originally posted by RolandBrichter


Yes, equities are a farce...pure manipulation by program traders...

Watch this...and I openly challenge anyone to show how and where he is wrong in his analysis ...

[edit on 1-7-2009 by RolandBrichter]

This confirmed what I have felt for so long. I knew I wasn't "crazy" and I knew I wasn't some conspiracy theorist.

reply to post by Rockpuck


Obama is a fake and his job creation is just another "manipulation" of existing jobs within the government.

My husband now have been told that in December his contracting job will be converted from private to government he and many others that are now thanks to Rumsfeld privatization of the military enjoying good pay will be now on salary cuts Thanks to Obamas conversion of government jobs up to 25 thousand dollars.

So what in the heck is Obama doing?

Cutting more and more on the working class and making it now working poor.

So he can claim in 2010 Nations address that he created jobs.

What a joke and a fake.

This has moved quite fast, as soon he took office this year the elimination of private jobs within the military is just incredible to be done by December and you don't see or hear anything in the news.

But is happening and darn this is faster than anything he has done so far.

reply to post by RolandBrichter


"High frequency computer traders running with the Bull tape" Best technical explanation I've heard in a while.

Some people dismiss the unemployment numbers as a lagging indicator so its not surprising that they don't move the markets much.

On the other hand..

Mortgage applications were reported to have dropped 19% last week.

www.bloomberg.com...

And as reported earlier over half of the mortgages that were adjusted by banks so that they had lower monthly payments are back in default again.

This should be leading news. Mortgage rates are only going to go up which will reduce applications. All these readjusted mortgages are just delaying the foreclosures another year while the mortgage holders get free rent from the banks. That is going to really hurt the banks bottom line in 2010.

Even Warren Buffett thinks the market is way over bought based on earnings and any kind of traditional valuation.

I see much of this 2009 rally as short covering, The markets got quite oversold last year by a similar short sell machine, so you had to expect a big rebound when the bear tape broke. Wonder when the bull tape is going to break?

reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate


Two charts..




and

They show that stocks are not only overpriced, but that they are the most overpriced they have been in at least the last 75+ years! The chart above on your left shows S&P 500 earnings, adjusted for inflation. Down more than 90%! And because stocks have not fully adjusted for the plunge in earnings, PE ratios for the S&P 500 are higher than any time in at least the last 75 years. The S&P PE ratio never rose much above 20 times from 1935 until the 1990s. From a historical perspective, stocks became more and more expensive during the 1990s as monetary inflation was pushed into financial assets rather than into consumer goods and services. The stock market crash of 2000 took the PE ratio down a lot, but not anywhere near the levels that are seen at true bear market bottoms in range of 7 to 10 times like we had in the 1930s, 1970s, and 1980-82 timeframes. Now PE ratios are absolutely ridiculous! The S&P 500 is currently at around 120 and far above anything we have ever seen before! All of this suggests that the equity markets are not only overpriced-they are ridiculously overpriced!

All the green shoot advocates are drinking cool-aid...but it's laced with cyanide and hemlock....

reply to post by RolandBrichter


Taking into account the price to earnings ratio we can only assume at some point (probably after a quarterly reading of profits) the entire system will go bust (again).

Next Monday we start the 2nd Quarter Earnings for the S&P (starting with Alcoa I believe) .. Either the 2nd quarter was another bomb and the entire system collapses, or it was "better than expected" and we could see the rally continue..

Someone else once said that they can lie about unemployment, inflation, deflation, gdp, everything... except earnings (unless your a bank).

then again, after 1st quarter results were "worse than expected" the market still took off.. so who knows. Rational markets will tank with bad earnings, rally with good.

Also, the reason why these earnings are so important in this depression (its a depression now, being the single longest recession .. ) is that if S&P over all posts negative earnings... it will be the longest stretch ever for negative earnings on the S&P, which could lead to a return of the bear market.

Here are a list of companies filing Chap. 11

Phoenix Worldwide files for Chapter 11

Builder Zaring declares Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Bender Shipbuilding Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection

Bison Building Materials Files For Ch. 11 Bankruptcy Protection

Meadows race operator files for Chapter 11

Crabtree & Evelyn Files for Bankruptcy Protection

But the markets just keep on rising. Go Baby Go!!!

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by RolandBrichter

 

Taking into account the price to earnings ratio we can only assume at some point (probably after a quarterly reading of profits) the entire system will go bust (again).

Next Monday we start the 2nd Quarter Earnings for the S&P (starting with Alcoa I believe) .. Either the 2nd quarter was another bomb and the entire system collapses, or it was "better than expected" and we could see the rally continue..

Someone else once said that they can lie about unemployment, inflation, deflation, gdp, everything... except earnings (unless your a bank).

then again, after 1st quarter results were "worse than expected" the market still took off.. so who knows. Rational markets will tank with bad earnings, rally with good.

Also, the reason why these earnings are so important in this depression (its a depression now, being the single longest recession .. ) is that if S&P over all posts negative earnings... it will be the longest stretch ever for negative earnings on the S&P, which could lead to a return of the bear market.

I'm thinking the rally will continue. I don't think the farce continued long enough. But it is definitely is hard to call. If analysts are fed low numbers and their expectations are extremely low, then it isn't hard to come ahead of better than expected...

Right now, it's profitable for the quants and pt's to lead everything higher...soon it will be more profitable for them to open the trap door and let the bottom fall out...how soon is anyone's guess but it will certainly happen before the year is out...one thing that I know for sure...a computer algorithm doesn't give a sheee I it about earnings or value or people...

[edit on 1-7-2009 by RolandBrichter]

reply to post by RolandBrichter


I think the opposite.. I think levels have assured such a profit that it would be more beneficial to let loose the tidal wave of selling, tank the markets, then buy everything back up for pennies on the Dollar...

Turn the V into a W

They have in some cases 40%+ gains.. sell off, tank the markets so that they are again nearer to Feb-March levels, then buy back. I think this is more likely towards Sept-Oct-Nov, perhaps at 3rd Q results, but you never know.. if 2Q's results are bad enough, it could happen in the coming weeks.

reply to post by RolandBrichter


yes, but thats what makes our programs profitable. let humans worry and let emotion influence them when "they" know better..

it is my theory, take 100% of emotion out of trading, and you would be a rich man... not a bad side of the fence to be on

reply to post by Rockpuck


I dont know.. 1q results were priced in for failure and as far as I remember most beat the street (even though meager)..

It is of my opinion that everything is priced into the markets and at the same time the markets are set up to hurt the most amt. of people at one time.. take that at face value i suppose

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RolandBrichter

 

yes, but thats what makes our programs profitable. let humans worry and let emotion influence them when "they" know better..

it is my theory, take 100% of emotion out of trading, and you would be a rich man... not a bad side of the fence to be on

I don't think you understand algorithmic trading that well. They don't seek to take EMOTION out of trading (for that is all it is on the short term). They seek to perfect it by using computers rather than humans who are more prone to errors. They even have computer programs now that seek to get news first and process the news as good or bad for the market and it will place orders for those funds so they get in and/or out while the other person is still deciding if the news is good or bad.

Also algorithms are used in order to decide when to buy a stock and how to proceed, such as breaking the large block up into smaller blocks. But the people still need to have knowledge of what stocks to buy. Look at the quant funds that went bust or flourished in 2008. They both used algorithmic trading but just bet differently...

I just take issue when you say it takes emotion out of trading. It may take human error that comes from emotion out of it (such as if something is going down I may panic sell but the computer may decide to buy MORE). But you can NEVER take emotion out of trading. It is always based on emotion. Your position will turn to crap if you don't understand the emotion of the markets even with algorithms.

[edit on 2-7-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


I do understand, I program them lol

When I state this, I am saying that "rule based/algorithmic based" trading relies on the emotion of others where you can be a stone wall jackson. Let the others fold into your hand as you profit off of their sweat.

It is paying dividends it looks like so far.. but all I have is back till xxH6 contracts and the cost+time of doing all this historical backtesting is getting quite costly..

Yes, there are managed futures funds that delineate a basket of futures and go long vs. short on each other all at the same time.. that is advanced black box trading and only nets very small % amts over time (which of course add up) and I wouldn't say that has anything to do with anything except for a large mathematical formula

[edit on 2-7-2009 by GreenBicMan]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan

I do understand, I program them lol

What do you mean when you say that you program them?

Let me make my point.

You have a situation where you are up xxx amt of dollars...

You see the chart ticking towards your stop.. get nervous.. and just take all the profit you can.. well still a profit right?

Well if you would have went by the "rules" instead of "emotion" your trade actually would have played out to a 20 pt higher gain vs. when you got EMOTIONAL about it and pulled the plug

I am sure, you - along with myself and others - have done this at one point.. anyways point being that keeping the monitor off and letting the CPU do all your thinking is the correct way IMO to make $$ over time historically and not just in sections

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Have you been listening to anything I have been saying over the past 4 months brother? lol


jk - you prob missed all of it and it just blended in with all the other stuff on this site.. I have been doing this for quite sometime now - refer to your PM's about Sierra Charts and all my coversations vs. redhatty about them.. how he tried to debunk me and all that garbage lol.. its back like 100000 pages

[edit on 2-7-2009 by GreenBicMan]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
I am sure, you - along with myself and others - have done this at one point.. anyways point being that keeping the monitor off and letting the CPU do all your thinking is the correct way IMO to make $$ over time historically and not just in sections

Of course there are benefits to automated trading, but you make it seem like all you need is a computer program and a historical chart and you can make 100%'s of your money and it doesn't work that way.

Also, unfortunately, those automated trading programs cost a fortune and this is just my hobby

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


yes, tell me about it, more expensive than most my habits hahahahha

and historically, it is quite profitable.. its all about math IMO.. i know I keep saying this.. but i dont think there is another way around it

I would have outgained the SP500 by more than 500 points since 2006 using my ES strategies.. so I would say its "not bad"

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

yes, tell me about it, more expensive than most my habits hahahahha

and historically, it is quite profitable.. its all about math IMO.. i know I keep saying this.. but i dont think there is another way around it

I would have outgained the SP500 by more than 500 points since 2006 using my ES strategies.. so I would say its "not bad"

It is all about math? Everything in our world is based on math

Tell me when you make real money. Everyone does extremely well with fake money because they do things they would never do with real money and they don't worry that much about fake money. They also trade like they are supposed to.