The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Originally posted by Rockpuck
And it only makes planning for the future that much harder, uncertain and shrouded in possibilities. Not just from an investment standpoint, even from a employment, inflation, savings, everything standpoint.. Interesting times, to say the least.

...and , not to be an alarmist, but from a simple survival standpoint...at this stage, investments are worth spending time on, but only as much as they support a long range "keep food on the table" investment plan...I also hold physical metals, but, something deep inside me thinks that a bottle of Jack and a can of good chili may be worth much more in the near future...

[edit on 22-6-2009 by RolandBrichter]

reply to post by RolandBrichter


haha, I hear you .. I hear you. I have always considered that the level of preparation that involves storing canned food, guns and survival gear to be a crutch for the weak minded (in terms of political/eco topics) or as you say, Alarmist. But I honestly have to admit for a while now there has been a nagging voice tell me that, as I rationally see something is seriously wrong with our government, way of life, economy, society.. that as you say, an investment in the future may involve a period of self preservation. I will continue to hold out on buying canned food, MRE's and water .. but I cannot deny that while last year I was proud I had to foresight to see the situation, and understood the underlying causes.. looking into next year I am beginning to see only fear and uncertainty.

reply to post by Rockpuck


Lo, and behold, I can not even imagine how the holidays will be this time around. Specially when the government unemployment figures will be hitting 11% by estimates and that is the sugar coated figure.

We know better, Right?

reply to post by redhatty


I was reading on that one, early today, seems that by Wednesday we will be looking at either a raise on interest of treasury bond special.



[edit on 22-6-2009 by marg6043]

Ummm...Ummm... :shk:

No recovery for U.S. property markets until 2017
www.reuters.com...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. urban commercial real estate markets probably will not recover until 2017, the head analyst of commercial mortgages for Deutsche Bank Securities (DBKGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said on Monday.

"The froth is still working itself out," Richard Parkus, Deutsche Bank head of Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities and Asset-Backed Securities Synthetics Research said at the Reuters Global Real Estate Summit in New York. "We are currently in something which is comparable to what we saw in the 1990s and potentially worse."

U.S. commercial real estate values could fall by more than 50 percent from the peak in 2007, he said.

Although asking rents are down about 28 percent in New York, factoring in free rent and other perks by landlords, rents are down about 50 percent, Parkus said.

"Rents will be back to where they were in 2017," Parkus said. Building prices also will take six to eight years to recover, he said.

The U.S. commercial markets are deteriorating at an increasing pace as rent dries up and demand plummets. That is leaving borrowers struggling to make their monthly mortgage payments.

"The number of new loans that are becoming delinquent each month are defaulting at rates between 5 percent and 8 percent per year, with the most loosely underwritten loans of 2007 defaults at 8 percent per year, Parkus said. That puts accumulated losses at about 4 percent this year, and 12 percent over the next four years.

Loans loses ranged between 7 and 11 percent a year during the commercial real estate crash of the early 1990s.

"We are not only not approaching stability, we are at a period of maximum deterioration," Parkus said.

reply to post by Rockpuck


FROM EXPERIENCE (HURRICANE KATRINA)

Buy LOTS of ramen - the cheap stuff. #1 it's cheap, #2 it is great to give to neighbors, friends, hungry people rather than have them try and take what you have saved up, #3 it can be eaten cooked or uncooked.

If they think that's all you got, they will take some & leave you be :-)

Originally posted by redhatty
reply to post by Rockpuck

 

FROM EXPERIENCE (HURRICANE KATRINA)

Buy LOTS of ramen - the cheap stuff. #1 it's cheap, #2 it is great to give to neighbors, friends, hungry people rather than have them try and take what you have saved up, #3 it can be eaten cooked or uncooked.

If they think that's all you got, they will take some & leave you be :-)

That's a great point indeed......coupled with a little Tabasco and Old Bay

reply to post by redhatty


I must be having an "emotional day"...I burst into tears when I read this jist thinking that you had to go through such a thing in order to have this "advice" to share...

Thanks for the tip! I used to actually LOVE the damn stuff but alas,I "got healthy" and haven't had any in a very long time...

It's on my list,Sam's Club sells it buy the case.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
What I am looking at


Seems to be setting up quite well for our test of the 50 EMA before we move higher..

If you go back about 30 pages you will see that this technically needed to happen bc we needed to fill that gap up (about 10 days ago) before we move higher

This would also correlate with the full stochastic trendline I have drawn as well.

According to this we should hold right around here and bounce

I think this is exactly what we needed

What a crock of beans....

White House sees 10 percent unemployment within months
www.reuters.com...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. unemployment rate is likely rise from already high levels to 10 percent in the next couple of months, a White House spokesman said on Monday.

"I think the president has said this, and I would certainly say this, I think you're likely to see unemployment at 10 percent within the next couple of months," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters.

The U.S. unemployment rate already stands at 9.4 percent, the highest level in about 25 years, and many analysts believe it could continue to climb despite the $787 billion economic stimulus package passed early this year by Congress.

Earlier this year, the Obama administration had predicted the unemployment rate would peak at 8 percent before beginning to fall toward the end of 2009.

President Barack Obama is expected to address the outlook for the economy at a White House press conference on Tuesday.

[edit on 6/22/2009 by Hx3_1963]

whoever was saying the markets would fix themselves by end of day...

Dow 8,339.01 -200.72 -2.35%

finance.yahoo.com...

reply to post by irishchic


Oh the food part after Katrina was the easy part LOL What really sucked was that I had literally closed on a house exactly 30 days before Katrina hit & the house was destroyed.

Fortunately, Insurance paid it off less deductible & the bank took the property in lieu of the deductible, which was just as well since there isn't much being built in that area STILL.

At least my credit stayed clean from it all

Speaking of...

MBS at +11/32. Rates are at 5.375% for a 30-year conventional, 60-day lock.

T-Bill auction Bid to cover 2.79 for 13-week, 2.72 for 26-week, lower than last week. link

The last time we closed UNDER the fifty DMA on the /ES was March 30th. That's fifty-six trading days ago...
Today was the first day since June 1st we closed below the 200 (significantly, too). Those are our new overhead resistance lines.

I am so glad you made it out well and safe hatty,the world's MUCH better off for your contributions

market-ticker.denninger.net...

"Bernanke and Obama are backed into a corner, exactly as I predicted would happen. In order to continue to issue like this in the Treasury market while not driving Treasury rates to the moon money will have to be "scared" into bonds - which means blowing up the stock market.

Sorry folks, but those "green shoots" are in fact marijuana plants and our President along with his economic advisers have been smoking 'em."



The last line is a CLASSIC...sorry,but I'm not "feeling" any big ol' "bounce" this time and neither are many who know much more than I...too many variables and too many holes to plug.

Something's gotta' give...

[edit on 22-6-2009 by irishchic]

Check This Out.

June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Executives at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the biggest stock-market rally in 71 years to sell their shares at the fastest pace since credit markets started to seize up two years ago.

Insiders of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies were net sellers for 14 straight weeks as the gauge rose 36 percent, data compiled by InsiderScore.com show. Amgen Inc. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Kevin Sharer and five other officials sold $8.2 million of stock. Christopher Donahue, the CEO of Federated Investors Inc., and his brother, Chief Financial Officer Thomas Donahue, offered the most in three years.

I'm not saying insider trading or anything, but how much bigger of a sign do you need of what direction the economy is going. I'm sure stuff like this goes on all the time, but if these people are selling off their stocks it doesn't sound like they have much faith in their companies to no longer be invested long term.

First you have the awesome post by Rockpuck, now we have this tidbit by Bloomberg, Then we have Hx's posting of commercial real estate not coming back until 2017, which then leads us right into Red Hatty's advice of buying lots and lots of Ramen Noodles.

I might start looking into buying a few ingots of silver, not much just 2 or three, something easy to hide. Then invest in stuff of the copper and lead kind, and lots and lots of Ramen noodles.

OKAY Now who is the big mouth that went and told the idiot's on Wall strip that I siad the market would take a harsh down turn in the middle of june?....
"Someone" was supposed to keep quiet and just prepare for them to freak out again
But on a serious note let's all keep an eye on the dollar and gold for now. Not looking good on the foreign front at the moment. The BRIC is out for blood and with this sell off and the one's coming up they might just get some out of us yet.
P.S
If you can find the ramen with the chili paste get some it is good for the tummy if you have to eat lots of beans....

reply to post by irishchic


No no no and NO ... GBM says the economy is fine, he can't be wrong with all that fancy financial guru talk n' such......

Anywho, we all agree there's a storm brewing on the horrizon .. I predict after the christmas season we will have a clearer view of what our future is to be.. it won't be pretty, to say the least.

reply to post by Hx3_1963


10% ``in the next couple of months``... more like next month... if we only count U-3... U-6 is already at 16%+ and the real unemployment is supposed to be at around 20%...

So... and according to our analysis... when we said if it followed 1930s, it would go around 8600-8800 before going back down...

Originally posted by redhatty
In a normal world, I would agree with you completely that the items you pulled from that list are *liabilities.*

But in the magical skittle-crapping unicorn world of the FED ( at least the world in that specific report ) EVERY ONE OF THOSE LISTED is considered a "Financial Asset" in the referenced Fed report.

Kinda hard to call the game here when what would normally be a liability is now magically considered an asset, ya know?

Hi Redhatty. I don't see any Fed induced magic here. A financial instrument can represent both an asset , and , a liability (counterparties). In the context of Z1 , the instruments you listed as "assets" , are also represented as "liabilities" (two sides to every balance sheet) , but that wasn't really the point of my post. Simply that deposits always represent a liability to the banking institution that holds them , and commercial paper , a liability to the bank conduit that issues it.

Since the Z1 is a hard read [for me]... I thought that perhaps there was some confusion over that issue.

GL

Death cross, golden cross...

Someone with a technical analysis background please skool me.

Is the DOW about to experience a death cross, or a golden cross?

200 day moving average is about to move below the 50 day moving average. Is this a golden cross and the DOW is just meeting resistance, or is this a death cross? Sorry, but I'm confused.

6 month chart


It looks like a golden cross from what I'm reading in the 5 year chart

5 year chart


Sorry for bracketing the atsimg tags inside img tags, but that's the only way I can get the whole image to show.

reply to post by Dbriefed


glad you asked...I await the wise answer also!



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