The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor

Originally posted by disgustedbyhumanity
reply to post by redhatty

 

If they were expecting a bad treasury auction they wouldn't be buying treasuries. The real deal is that treasuries are tremendously oversold. Their is no real inflation as measured by demand and foriegn countries can't afford for the dollar to go much lower.

I don't think commodities will do very well in the coming weeks.

Even though I am worried about the dollar, I do think the inflation trade is very crowded. Everyone thinks that there is going to be a lot of inflation. And we all know what happens when trades are crowded. At least usually.

By the way, the Fed would be buying treasuries if they think there won't be a lot of outside demand. That is the whole point. If there were constantly good treasury auctions then yields would be kept down.

The fed would wait until the auction to buy so this was someone lese buying. If they thought it was going to be weak they would wait for the auction as well. The buying at the end of day in treasuries indicates that the auction will go very well. I expect the Fed will have to buy nothing tommorow as it will be fully subscribed and yields end up falling 10-20 basis points below current trading levels. Only time will tell.

Originally posted by disgustedbyhumanity
The fed would wait until the auction to buy so this was someone lese buying. If they thought it was going to be weak they would wait for the auction as well. The buying at the end of day in treasuries indicates that the auction will go very well. I expect the Fed will have to buy nothing tommorow as it will be fully subscribed and yields end up falling 10-20 basis points below current trading levels. Only time will tell.

I think they would have bought today to make it seem like they weren't rushing to prop treasuries up. But it doesn't matter the inner workings. I agree with you that the auction will probably be fine. I'll probably buy some stocks before the auction.

Ho Hum... :shk:

Fed will dawdle, top forecaster fears
www.marketwatch.com...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve will be "late to the game" when it comes time to raise interest rates, said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist for RBS Securities.

"I hope they learned their lesson" from 2004, when the Fed raised rates at a very casual pace, Stanley said in an interview with MarketWatch. Stanley says the Fed will be unpleasantly surprised by how quickly inflation gains momentum once the economy starts growing again.

This time, the Fed should tighten monetary policy "much more forcefully" when the economy regains its footing, he said.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

xoxo

Wow.. cant break this wave/wedge...



1135 AM EST

reply to post by GreenBicMan


well... see ya

Treasury sells 10-year treasurys for a yield of 3.99% which is probably what is weighing down on the markets.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Don't hit the bottle yet, GBM. Those graphs do give food for thought.

(You might want to pencil in an appointment with AA sometime in the next few months, though.)


Latest:


DJIA

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/96c29a733189.png[/atsimg]
Source


FTSE at close

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/932d60b980a5.png[/atsimg]
Source






[edit on 10/6/09 by pause4thought]

10 yr consolidating around 3.95 for the time being

finance.yahoo.com...=%5ETNX;range=1d

( i think we fall back to 3.88 2 nite)

basically for joe 6 pack...this means you missed the re-financing window of opportunity......

as generally the 30 yr fixed is quoted close to the 10 yr yield plus 2% points.......so that would now equal approx..5.95% on the 30 y FRM

Whispers are also growing that Larry Summmers may replace Bernanke in 7 months (when B.B's term is up) GBM you may want to send him flowers b4 he gets the boot.......i think i would rather have him then Summers thou.....geez ..the way he advised other country's to devalue their currency's ....he might = disaster

most people were hoping for Volker (although of course this may likely be a lesser or evils type of thing)

FEd's Beige book comes out in a few minutes...........peace out

[edit on 10-6-2009 by cpdaman]

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor

Originally posted by disgustedbyhumanity
The fed would wait until the auction to buy so this was someone lese buying. If they thought it was going to be weak they would wait for the auction as well. The buying at the end of day in treasuries indicates that the auction will go very well. I expect the Fed will have to buy nothing tommorow as it will be fully subscribed and yields end up falling 10-20 basis points below current trading levels. Only time will tell.

I think they would have bought today to make it seem like they weren't rushing to prop treasuries up. But it doesn't matter the inner workings. I agree with you that the auction will probably be fine. I'll probably buy some stocks before the auction.

I was wrong. Auction sucked and commodities are up. Thought the buying yesterday was a good indicator. Guess the buyers just got rope-a-doped. I always said that trying to call things day to day is a losing proposition. At least i was smart enough not to put any money behind my prognistication. Probably will to day, so when you see the multi million dollar purchase at the close it will probably be me (I wish).

reply to post by pause4thought


hello -

if you have been keeping up with my charts, you will see that this has been setting up for quite a while..

its good to see a formation hold up finally, im sure it wont though by about 3:50PM though after JPM buys it back to 9000 lol

Some interesting news & analysis on this page, folks. Keep it coming.

Here's one just for you. Shhh - don't tell anyone. Wouldn't want to go spreading rumours:

Fed would be shut down if it were audited, expert says

...not that it's really news.

3.998 getting close to 4 on the 10 yr

Fed's beige book basically says things are still deteriorating but at a less steep rate. I think the Fed is going to start getting a little more negative to scare the markets so rates can head back down a little. I think the IMMINENT inflation trade is misguided. You can print all you want but if it isn't in the system then it means nothing.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor



Oh it's in the system, it's just in hiding. Make that all around the world in 'reserves' also. Hyperinflation is a CURRENCY EVENT not an economic one. When the run starts it will be quick and violent, same way it's always happened.

GM's Interest Rate Swaps have already been set off. IRS's are the vast majority of the Quadrillion in Derivatives. Rising interest rates will only increase the problems.

Good Support Line IMO

I think Bernanke and the bank cartel behind the federal Reserve are hanging on a string, right now the way the problem with the economic crisis was handle was the wrong way we all know that.

The economy is not getting better by any chance and neither the markets that will have to be continuously infused to survive.

Sorry to say this but is about time that they get exposed even if means the end of Americas economic supremacy once and for all.

I think the Fed benefactors are losing too much oney.

T's took a big hit right after this news came out

Russia May Swap Some U.S. Treasuries for IMF Debt

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Russia may switch some of its reserves from U.S. Treasuries to International Monetary Fund bonds, the central bank said today. The comment drove Treasuries and the dollar lower.

Russia only holds about $160 Bill in Treasuries, lately that's about 2 weeks worth of issue, but it is now clear that Russia is planning to follow China's lead in moving away from US Debt & they plan to do it fast.

Can't really say I blame them

Esp when our news reports have this in it:

The FED: Bankrupt

But heh, I don't know anything now do I?

Edit to fix tags

[edit on 6/10/09 by redhatty]

xoxoxo

reply to post by redhatty


Funny that it comes back to the bond market and all those bonds that were sold in the last few months out of desperation.

But hey we have been posting all that here, is just a matter of connecting the dots, right?



[edit on 10-6-2009 by marg6043]

Originally posted by cpdaman


Whispers are also growing that Larry Summmers may replace Bernanke in 7 months (when B.B's term is up)

Hopefully not. You don't want an academician, an economy professor, to do job like that. It all depends on the volatility of events though.

It was Timothy Geithner who was the first to grasp the mechanics of the interconection that led to the near meltdown. He passed the word on Bernanke who knows Wall St. well enough to quickly form a pic, so he woke up Paulson to buy a plane ticket to Capitol Hill.

There is a chance that Larry Summers would like to do things his way if the Federal Reserve would do this or that. That's where the wind blows from, I guess.