The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by GreenBicMan


This is what's up:

Check out this trendline

Thanks for the entertainment, GBM.

By the way, did anyone hear that disinformation interview with butt-aromo today on CNBC?

Pretty Classic right there IMO

reply to post by pause4thought


You are welcome of course, I will continue to try to trump your expectations

It looks like the middle of the day was a head fake on the better than expected auto sales numbers. If there is ANY sign of the economy retracing itself, equities will fall. It won't be a humpty dumpty fall but it will be pretty close. Traders/investors are basically setting the markets up for a recovery and that things will just get better from here.

The Chinese PMI numbers are bullish short term but external demand is still weak.

"Although we believe external demand continues to be weak, this is more than offset by the strong growth in Chinese domestic demand, especially fixed asset investment," said analysts at Goldman Sachs.

A lot of the current manufacturing strength over in Asia is based on the perception that the global recession is almost over. Industry is ramping up early and building inventories in expectation for increased demand.

The higher oil prices that are resulting from China building huge oil reserves would factor into the inflation equation. China is holding trillions of dollars in US debt that is at risk of being devalued by global inflation. The Chinese may suspend their oil hording if external demand for Asian goods continues to be weak.

An interesting article you all who enjoy this thread might want to read. It is official that the dollar is being deleveraged.

Dollar Declines as Nations Mull Reserve Currency Alternatives

Flag it up and let everyone know what is going on.

Update with longer term trendline

Futures still holding key levels.. a test of 8650 on the futures is most likely imminent...

Still, wouldnt want to see it drop that far, perhaps test that INTRADAY low you can see..

This is a pretty "interesting" spot for the markets


YMM9 633 EST

*FOOD-STAMP RECIPIENTS UP ALMOST 19% FROM MARCH 31, 2008
*USDA SAYS RECORD 33.2 MLN WERE GETTING FOOD STAMPS ON MARCH 31

Folks, that's 10% of the population of the US TEN PERCENT of Americans are on the modern day bread lines!!!

20% of people in Los Angeles receive Public Aid TWENTY PERCENT!!

Where did America’s missing millions go? Holodomor Lessons

Researcher: Famine Killed 7 Million in U.S. During “Great Depression”

Rally On!

Chart of the Day: Stocks vs. Unemployment

RALLY ON!

[edit on 6/2/09 by redhatty]

gold 984 dollar steady tonite 78.5 ish

thought i would pose these TWO economic question's here.....anyone want to throw out a answer it would be appreciated

1. Why does QE (quantitavie easing) by the FED.....seem to AUTOMATICALLy = Inflation in people's minds.......especially when

Doesn't the very real possiblity exist that it is instead a giant circle jerk where the treasury issues the debt.....the fed buys it .....and then the treasury deposits the money at the fed (to collect interest)......in other words how does the money used in quantitavie easing get into the economy....is this SOLEY based on the Belief that banks will increase Lending? (in this enviornment where banks don't want to risk losing money to rising loan defaults)

2. IT seems to me there is a huge Risk in ramping up Quantitative easing where the fed becomes a larger buyer of Gov't debt....especially in the enviornment where treasury holders may be looking for an excuse to sell /diversify their treasurys at a high price.....in other words.....if the fed announces they will be a buyer .....say for every $ they offer to buy....there are 5$ worth of sellers looking to offload.....couldn't quantitative easing trigger a bond collapse by giving people holding security's a reason to rush for the exits and get a decent price for doing so (regarding 10 and 30 year issues)

appreciate any answers to either

[edit on 2-6-2009 by cpdaman]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Update with longer term trendline

Futures still holding key levels.. a test of 8650 on the futures is most likely imminent...

Still, wouldnt want to see it drop that far, perhaps test that INTRADAY low you can see..

This is a pretty "interesting" spot for the markets


YMM9 633 EST

Pretty impressed with the market in afterhours here...

Not breaking 8700 on the futures, which is pretty big IMO

Again, updated with that same longer term trend line...

If we actually drill into that we may see some fireworks up or down..

IMO though, if we hold this level (8650-8700) in the futures until that point, I don't think we (or at least me, lol) will be disappointed




If we continuously test this support line and do not break below (not the trend line, but the support of 8650-8700) I think tomorrow in the CASH markets we do quite well.... after a big gain on Monday you would expect a decline yesterday.. didn't happen.. so then I was thinking we would see profit taking this evening, at least some players shorting the futures... well 8700 is holding really strong right now.. and that honestly impresses me especially after the way we closed on Monday which was with a whimper IMO...


Anyways, I know there are like 3 members on this entire board and maybe like 25 in the world that are with me on this one.. but I think this is how it is going to play out on the short term..

So anyways.. here is the chart


1157 PM EST - DJIA Futures

reply to post by cpdaman


Well I dont know much about all that to give a "educated answer"

But what I do not get is how one day the media is saying deflation, then the next is inflation, and then on CNBC today I heard the words hyperinflation..

I think the term my friend is "IF IT BLEEDS, IT LEADS"

I dont know if you are referring to this aspect of the MSM or not.. but I seem to think thats what it is all about..

For one time in my life, I actually find myself siding with Larry Kudlow (yeah, I know) he was saying how crazy people are talking about inflation/hyperinflation when deflation was on the table last week..

Like I said though, I really dont know enough to serve up an educated opinion

thanks for the reply GBM.....i have been tryng to get answers for this for a while.....it's really eating at me that i am now looking for answers at ATS...but it's worth a try..........

the stock market is holding very strong.....i would not step in front of this freight train .........heck the market is a manipulated joke IMO....but so long as i believe the PPT steps in at times of resistance to ensure the liquidity flows into american stocks. (as well)....i will not step in front of or on this crazy train......all govt's are trying to show that what they are doing "is working"........

what i do think you could see it the bond market posing a more serious threat to the stock market.......the last time treasury's auction spooked bond market ..equity's tanked as well.....that is a very distrubing sign....that to me ....shows the potential for a fast capital flight out of $



[edit on 2-6-2009 by cpdaman]

reply to post by cpdaman


Can you give me the call sign for the yields you are looking at and the call sign for the dollar please?

I want to do some historical and technical analysis on this and give you an opinion

Originally posted by cpdaman


gold 984 dollar steady tonite 78.5 ish

thought i would pose these TWO economic question's here.....anyone want to throw out a answer it would be appreciated

1. Why does QE (quantitavie easing) by the FED.....seem to AUTOMATICALLy = Inflation in people's minds.......especially when

Doesn't the very real possiblity exist that it is instead a giant circle jerk where the treasury issues the debt.....the fed buys it .....and then the treasury deposits the money at the fed (to collect interest)......in other words how does the money used in quantitavie easing get into the economy....is this SOLEY based on the Belief that banks will increase Lending? (in this enviornment where banks don't want to risk losing money to rising loan defaults)

2. IT seems to me there is a huge Risk in ramping up Quantitative easing where the fed becomes a larger buyer of Gov't debt....especially in the enviornment where treasury holders may be looking for an excuse to sell /diversify their treasurys at a high price.....in other words.....if the fed announces they will be a buyer .....say for every $ they offer to buy....there are 5$ worth of sellers looking to offload.....couldn't quantitative easing trigger a bond collapse by giving people holding security's a reason to rush for the exits and get a decent price for doing so (regarding 10 and 30 year issues)

appreciate any answers to either

[edit on 2-6-2009 by cpdaman]

1. When the Fed monetized debt, they, as you know, printed money to buy treasuries. The reason why this is inflationary is because the money that investors would put into treasuries/other government debt, would either be spent or invested in companies or corporate debt. So the central banks can keep interest rates low with buying debt *artificial demand for bonds* which causes demand for credit as well as the other mentioned reason. If the Federal Reserve did NOT QE, I always thought and still think that rates would have accelerated with utter impunity and this was really the real reason for them doing this. This is inflationary though because the money the government spent (debt) is spent. It should be zero sum because the money to finance the debt is taken OUT of the economy while the amount the government spent is in the economy. But the government prints money to buy the debt, spends the money, and the money that would have financed the debt is also in the economy.

2. I guess they could unload, which may be a reason why rates are still going up. But I don't know. The people buying debt definitely don't want to be inflated out of their profits, but they still need to pretend they are fine with buying U.S. debt. I believe the U.S. bought its own debt during WW2 if I am not mistaken.

[edit on 2-6-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

reply to post by cpdaman


And yes, like I have been saying forever the only people that are "in the game" right now is big money

I have stated this because I have insight into vested managed accounts and what positions are taken that are accredited investors to say the least.. I have seen enough to at least have a valid opinion...

Now me and my dad were talking about this...

He seems to agree here is the deal, and he rarely agrees with me on too much..

Although he is a short term bear (that is his imm. feeling) he feels as well the only players are (JPM, GS, Morgan) and these people are pushing us through technical levels.

He also feels the same way I do though on the long term about them propping us up (because, believe me, they can) until the retail investors feel like they are missing the boat again...

But then our opinions change slightly..

He feels as well the market could/should get to 10,000 here pretty soon.. but he feels a very strong correction will take place when you least expect it.. there is where we differ..

I feel if we push certain key tech. levels.. well we aren't falling anytime soon.. he thinks at anytime in this rally we will see bloodshed, then come back..

He also stated it's not totally out of the question in a couple years we will see Dow 12-16,000... and he is rarely wrong.. in fact sometimes it is dead scary how he is right.. although he says we may see Dow 7000 before 16,000... so he is VERY CAUTIOUS and DOESNT TRUST ANY MOVES ON THE SHORT TERM

I tend to agree infact.. the market has been known historically to fake the hell out of everyone when they least expect it (look at now for reference).. the only difference is he is VERY CAUTIOUS, and I am NOT if we break these key levels here... and hold

Like I said I am basing all of this on the NASDAQ having its 20 and 50 EMA cross the 200.. I hope that makes sense..

Id also like to add to my previous post that I actually have seen money being invested lately, quite a bit.

It is NOT GOING INTO EQUITIES/MUTUAL FUNDS

It is ALL GOING INTO ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

OIL/NAT GAS/EQUIPMENT LEASING

This right now is where accredited investors are putting their money

I guess this sort of information I CAN bring to the table, that could provide a deeper insight as to what is going on.

GBM I agree with your dad pretty much. I don't understand your obsession with technicals. Like I have never met someone who ONLY looks at technicals. I feel like whoever is controlling this market is trying to hold up bait to the other uninvested people to come in. Something has always felt "different" about this rally.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


I have never been burnt by a technical indicator that I have used.

At least when they turn, so do I.. its not like I stay and hold on to a position b/c of a feeling or ego... does this make sense man?

Everything, right now as of this moment in time, techincally points to me that this rally is not even close to over, infact I have stated what I think is going to happen here..

That is where me and my dad kinda shift thinking..

He was also burnt very badly on that drop late last year.. he said he has never lost so much money in his life on something he thought would never happen (that late downward spike before the rally).. so I think personally that is CLOUDING his judgment..

Although.. as it was coming back up (Dow 7200 or so..) he said we would hit 9-10000 pretty soon.. so he was right about that.. he is a technical player as well.. but he uses his "gut" feeling much much more than I do..

I purely am a technical player b/c I think the technicals never lie to you.. at least when they turn pos/neg. I jump on the corresponding side..

I hope that clears that up RR

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

I have never been burnt by a technical indicator that I have used.

At least when they turn, so do I.. its not like I stay and hold on to a position b/c of a feeling or ego... does this make sense man?

Everything, right now as of this moment in time, techincally points to me that this rally is not even close to over, infact I have stated what I think is going to happen here..

That is where me and my dad kinda shift thinking..

He was also burnt very badly on that drop late last year.. he said he has never lost so much money in his life on something he thought would never happen (that late downward spike before the rally).. so I think personally that is CLOUDING his judgment..

Although.. as it was coming back up (Dow 7200 or so..) he said we would hit 9-10000 pretty soon.. so he was right about that.. he is a technical player as well.. but he uses his "gut" feeling much much more than I do..

I purely am a technical player b/c I think the technicals never lie to you.. at least when they turn pos/neg. I jump on the corresponding side..

I hope that clears that up RR

How long have you been looking at technicals to determind rallies/crashes? Like for how long. I mean testing and really trying to analyze things?

GBM good posts .....it is a great debate you and your dad have.....and i enjoy what you bring to the discussion

RReceptor thanks for the reply..........i enjoyed it ....i have a question about a part of your logic

you say investors will invest the money ( that they would have spent on treasurys..) in corporations or corp debt (but corp..credit spreads have been tanking).... and why would these investors not invest into commodity's like OIL instead....or NG.....even Gold....or....foreign stock.... i don't see this as having an inflationary impact....



[edit on 3-6-2009 by cpdaman]